US Stock Market Today, November 26, 2025: Dow Jumps 315 Points as Fed Rate-Cut Bets and AI Stocks Fuel Thanksgiving Rally

U.S. stocks extended their Thanksgiving-week rebound on Wednesday, with all three major indexes logging a fourth straight gain ahead of the holiday. The advance was powered by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, solid demand for AI-related hardware, and upbeat signals from selected retailers heading into the pivotal shopping season.

At the closing bell (4:00 p.m. ET) on Wednesday, November 26, 2025:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 47,427.12, +314.67 points (+0.67%)
S&P 500: 6,812.61, +46.73 points (+0.69%)
Nasdaq Composite: 23,214.69, +189.10 points (+0.82%) ^[1]

The small-cap Russell 2000 also climbed, finishing around 2,486.87, up roughly 0.85%, underscoring the breadth of the move. ^[2]

With Wednesday’s gains, the major averages are on pace for their best weekly performance since June, even after a sharp early-November pullback tied to worries about stretched tech valuations. ^[3]

Wall Street Extends Thanksgiving Week Rally

The mood on Wall Street stayed firmly “risk-on” into the close, despite lighter holiday-week trading volumes.

Fourth straight up day: Wednesday marked the fourth consecutive advance for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, as stocks continued to recover from this month’s AI-led selloff. ^[4]
Near recent highs: While still shy of record territory, the indexes have reversed much of their recent drawdown as buyers returned to both mega-cap tech names and more cyclical areas such as industrials and airlines. ^[5]
Market breadth: Advancing stocks beat decliners by more than 2-to-1 on the Nasdaq and over 4-to-1 on the NYSE, with the S&P 500 logging dozens of new 52‑week highs and no new lows—a strong sign of improving breadth. ^[6]

Trading now pauses for Thanksgiving on Thursday, and U.S. markets will operate on shortened hours Friday, closing at 1:00 p.m. ET. ^[7]

Fed Rate-Cut Bets Dominate the Narrative

The biggest driver behind Wednesday’s move wasn’t a single earnings report, but interest-rate expectations.

Jobless Claims and Durable Goods: “Soft but Not Broken”

Two key pieces of delayed economic data—both for September, postponed by the government shutdown—hit the tape Wednesday morning:

Weekly jobless claims fell to 216,000 for the week ended November 22, a seven‑month low and better than economists’ forecasts near 230,000. Continuing claims edged up to about 1.96 million, suggesting people who lose jobs are taking longer to find new ones. ^[8]
Durable goods orders rose 0.5% month-on-month in September, beating expectations, while orders excluding transportation climbed 0.6%. ^[9]
The closely watched core capital goods category—non-defense orders excluding aircraft, a proxy for business investment—jumped 0.9%, with shipments up the same amount, signaling surprisingly robust capex despite tariff and cost headwinds. ^[10]

Together, the data contribute to a “goldilocks” narrative: growth is slowing but not collapsing, keeping recession fears in check while still giving the Fed cover to cut if inflation keeps easing.

Markets Price in a December Cut

Traders responded by leaning even harder into the idea of a December rate cut:

CME FedWatch now implies roughly an 85% probability that the Fed will lower its benchmark rate by 25 basis points at its December 9–10 meeting—almost double the odds seen just a week ago. ^[11]
The Fed’s Beige Book, released later in the day, described overall U.S. economic activity as “little changed”, with softening consumer spending, modestly weaker labor markets, and moderate price increases, reinforcing the view of a cooling but not collapsing economy. ^[12]

Longer-term Treasury yields barely budged, with the 10‑year note hovering just under 4.0%, as bond traders balanced the prospect of another cut against still-elevated inflation and solid business investment. ^[13]

AI and Big Tech Power the Move, Alphabet Lags

Once again, AI and mega-cap tech sat at the center of the action.

The technology sector led S&P 500 gainers, while communication services—home to Alphabet—was the only major sector to finish in the red. ^[14]
Nvidia (NVDA) rose around 1.4%, recouping part of Tuesday’s drop after concerns Meta might lean harder on Google’s AI chips. ^[15]
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO) posted outsized gains of about 3.9% and 3.3%, respectively, as chip investors refocused on AI demand rather than short-term competition headlines. ^[16]
Alphabet (GOOGL) slipped roughly 1.1% after recently touching new all-time highs on excitement around its Gemini 3 AI model, making it one of the few mega-caps in the red on the day. ^[17]

Investors continue to treat AI infrastructure—from GPUs to AI‑ready servers and networking gear—as a multi‑year “supercycle,” a theme reinforced by another strong quarter from Dell Technologies (more on that below). ^[18]

Earnings Movers: Dell Surges, Workday and Deere Slide, HP Faces AI Restructuring

While macro headlines set the tone, company-specific news drove big moves under the surface.

Dell Technologies: AI Servers Drive a Breakout

Dell Technologies (DELL) was one of the session’s standout winners:

Dell reported Q3 EPS of $2.59, ahead of estimates around $2.48, on revenue of $27.0 billion (slightly below consensus but overshadowed by guidance). ^[19]
Management raised its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook to roughly $111.2–$112.2 billion, up from a prior range of $105–$109 billion, and boosted its AI server shipment forecast to about $25 billion, more than 150% year-on-year growth. ^[20]

Dell shares jumped about 6% in regular trading, as investors rewarded its positioning as a core hardware supplier for the AI data‑center build‑out. ^[21]

Workday: Strong Quarter, Softer Outlook

Human-resources and finance software provider Workday (WDAY) delivered headline beats but disappointed on the details:

Workday posted Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.67 vs. expectations around $2.18, with revenue up roughly 12–13% year-on-year to $2.43 billion. ^[22]
However, the stock fell about 8–9% as investors focused on slower subscription-revenue growth and a cautious tone on enterprise spending, reinforcing worries that big corporate customers are becoming more selective about new cloud projects. ^[23]

Deere: Tariffs and Costs Hit the Outlook

Heavy-equipment maker Deere & Co. (DE) also came under pressure:

Deere’s Q4 EPS of $3.93 topped consensus estimates, and revenue grew double digits year-on-year to about $12.4 billion, but the company guided fiscal 2026 net income to $4.0–$4.75 billion, well below Wall Street expectations near $5.3 billion. ^[24]
Management cited higher tariffs and rising costs as key headwinds, particularly for its Production & Precision Agriculture and Construction & Forestry segments. ^[25]

Deere shares dropped roughly 5–6%, weighing on industrials even as the broader tape rallied. ^[26]

HP Inc.: Job Cuts and AI Pivot

HP Inc. (HPQ) moved lower after pairing a modest earnings beat with a significant restructuring plan:

HP reported Q4 EPS of $0.93 on revenue of $14.64 billion, slightly ahead of consensus. ^[27]
The company cut its full‑year EPS guidance to $2.60–$3.20, below analysts’ expectations near $3.33, and announced a $1 billion cost‑saving initiative. ^[28]
As part of that plan, HP will eliminate 4,000–6,000 jobs globally by fiscal 2028, leaning on productivity gains from AI and automation. Management said the program is an extension of a “future‑ready” strategy launched in 2022 and highlighted that AI PCs and internal AI tools have already boosted productivity by mid‑teens percentages in some teams. ^[29]

HP shares slipped around 1.5%, reflecting concern that the turnaround will take time amid weak PC demand and ongoing pressure in its printing business. ^[30]

Winners in Retail and Software: Urban Outfitters and Autodesk

Not all earnings reactions were negative:

Urban Outfitters (URBN) jumped about 13% after delivering Q3 EPS of $1.28 vs. $1.18 expected and revenue of $1.53 billion, above forecasts. Comparable sales rose across its Urban Outfitters, Anthropologie, and Free People banners, and subscription revenue surged nearly 49%, signaling resilient demand among younger, fashion‑focused consumers heading into the holidays. ^[31]
Autodesk (ADSK) gained roughly 2–3% after beating on earnings and revenue and raising its full‑year outlook, helped by strong adoption of its design and engineering software and robust operating margins around 38%. ^[32]

These pockets of strength helped cushion the blow from Workday, Deere, and HP, keeping the broader tech and consumer-discretionary sectors in the green.

Holiday Travel and Retail in Focus

With Wednesday the busiest travel day of the year, investors also watched airlines and retailers as early gauges of consumer health.

The S&P 1500 Airlines index jumped about 3.4%, supported by heavy Thanksgiving travel bookings, which many traders see as a proxy for consumer confidence. ^[33]
On the retail side, Walmart and Target have delivered mixed guidance in recent days, pointing to more cautious, promotion-driven holiday spending, even as some specialty retailers like Urban Outfitters show strong demand. ^[34]
The National Retail Federation still expects U.S. holiday sales to surpass $1 trillion for the first time, but analysts warn that higher living costs and a “low‑hire, low‑fire” labor market could make that milestone harder to hit than the headline suggests. ^[35]

How consumers spend from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday will be crucial not just for retailers but for the broader narrative around a soft landing vs. slowdown.

Bonds, Commodities, and Crypto: Quiet but Supportive Backdrop

Outside of equities, price action remained mostly supportive for risk assets:

The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield stayed just below 4.0%, little changed from Tuesday, suggesting bond traders are not yet fighting the equity market’s dovish interpretation of Fed policy. ^[36]
WTI crude oil rose about 1.2% to roughly $58.65 per barrel, while gold futures climbed around 1.4% to just under $4,200 an ounce—an unusual combination that hints at both risk appetite and demand for hedges persisting simultaneously. ^[37]
Bitcoin traded near its intraday highs around $90,000, extending a volatile year that has increasingly tied crypto to broader macro and liquidity swings rather than acting as a classic safe haven. ^[38]

What Today’s Moves Mean for Investors

For investors, Wednesday’s session reinforces a few key themes:

The market is all‑in on a December cut.
Pricing in an ~85% chance of a rate reduction leaves less room for disappointment. Any upside surprise in the November jobs report or a more hawkish tone from Fed officials could trigger a pullback, especially in long‑duration assets like growth and tech. ^[39]
AI remains the core equity story.
Dell’s blowout AI server guidance and the continued sensitivity of Nvidia, AMD, and Alphabet to any AI‑related headlines underline how concentrated the market’s leadership still is. That’s bullish while the story holds, but it also leaves indices vulnerable to shocks in a handful of names. ^[40]
Corporate America is cutting costs, often via AI.
HP’s decision to cut up to 6,000 jobs while investing heavily in AI tools, along with similar moves at other large employers, highlights a structural shift: productivity gains may support margins, but they can also restrain hiring and wage growth, feeding the “low‑hire, low‑fire” labor climate reflected in jobless-claims data. ^[41]
The consumer is still spending—but more selectively.
Strong results from Urban Outfitters and solid travel demand contrast with cautious guidance from mass‑market retailers. Investors will scrutinize Black Friday and Cyber Monday data, and high‑frequency card-spend metrics, for confirmation that households can sustain a $1 trillion‑plus holiday season. ^[42]

Key Events to Watch Next

Looking beyond today’s close, markets will focus on:

Thanksgiving weekend sales: Early reports on in‑store traffic, online volumes, and discounting intensity.
November employment report (next week): A hotter‑than‑expected print could challenge December cut odds; a weaker one would likely cement them. ^[43]
Further Fed commentary ahead of the December meeting: Any pushback against the market’s aggressive rate‑cut expectations could rattle stocks, especially high‑valuation tech. ^[44]

For now, though, Wall Street heads into the Thanksgiving break in a distinctly upbeat mood: stocks are climbing, investors are betting on a friendlier Fed, and AI remains the market’s favorite narrative.