U.S. stocks spent Thursday trading in a tight range near record highs as investors weighed a mixed labor‑market picture, fresh corporate earnings and growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.
After seven gains in the last eight sessions, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average came into the day less than 1% below their all‑time closing highs, while the Nasdaq Composite sat about 2% underneath its own record. [1] By late‑session trading, the S&P 500 was hovering around 6,860, barely changed on the day, with the Dow slightly lower and the tech‑heavy Nasdaq little moved, keeping the major benchmarks pinned just shy of new peaks. [2]
Note: At the time of writing, U.S. markets were still trading; intraday levels were roughly flat to slightly higher. Final closing numbers may differ, but the overall picture of a quiet, sideways session near records is unlikely to change materially.
Indexes Hover Near Record Highs
Wednesday’s rally set the stage for today’s subdued action. On December 3:
- The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 6,849.72, pulling within about 0.6% of its late‑October record close.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 408.44 points (0.9%) to 47,882.90.
- The Nasdaq Composite added 0.2% to 23,454.09.
- Small caps led with the Russell 2000 up 1.9% to 2,512.14. [3]
According to Investopedia’s morning market wrap, those gains brought the Dow and S&P 500 to within roughly 1% of their all‑time highs (48,254.82 and 6,890.89, respectively), while the Nasdaq started Thursday about 2% below its October record. [4]
On Thursday:
- Live coverage from 24/7 Wall St. showed the S&P 500 trading near 6,859.90, up a negligible 0.03%.
- The Dow drifted around 47,948, off about 0.1%.
- The Nasdaq 100 edged lower by roughly 0.15%, while the Russell 2000 gave back a fraction of Wednesday’s surge. [5]
- Bloomberg reported that U.S. stocks “posted small gains” early in the session as stronger‑than‑expected jobs data failed to shake expectations for a Fed rate cut, with the S&P up about 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 nearly flat shortly after the open. [6]
In short: Wall Street largely paused near record territory, digesting another wave of economic data rather than extending the rally aggressively.
Labor‑Market Crosscurrents: Weak Hiring, Strong Claims
The most important macro story for the U.S. stock market today was the confusing message from the labor market.
ADP shows surprise job losses
On Wednesday, payroll processor ADP reported that U.S. private‑sector employers cut 32,000 jobs in November, versus economists’ expectations for around 40,000 jobs added. [7]
Key takeaways:
- November was the worst month for private hiring since the pandemic, according to Investopedia. [8]
- Private employment has declined in three of the last four months, leaving the four‑month net change slightly negative. [9]
- ADP and other analysts highlighted tariff uncertainty and tighter conditions for small businesses as major headwinds. [10]
This fragile hiring backdrop has been central to the latest stock‑market rally, because soft data makes a Fed rate cut more likely.
Weekly jobless claims hit 3‑year low
On Thursday morning, however, the government’s weekly jobless claims told a different story. Initial claims:
- Fell by 27,000 to 191,000 in the week ending November 29,
- Beating expectations for roughly 219,000–220,000, and
- Marking the lowest level since September 2022. [11]
Several outlets, including MarketWatch and Nasdaq, framed the report as evidence of a “no‑fire, no‑hire” job market: layoffs remain rare, but companies are also reluctant to expand headcount. [12]
Challenger data: layoffs still elevated
A separate report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas added another layer:
- U.S. employers announced 71,321 planned job cuts in November,
- Down 53% from October but 24% higher than November 2024,
- Bringing year‑to‑date planned layoffs to about 1.171 million, the highest since 2020. [13]
Challenger flagged:
- Telecom (especially Verizon), technology and meat processing as layoff hotspots.
- Artificial intelligence as a factor in 6,280 job cuts in November and roughly 54,694 AI‑related layoffs so far in 2025. [14]
Taken together, the data suggest an economy that’s slowing but not collapsing—the classic “soft landing” scenario that equity bulls are hoping for.
Fed Rate‑Cut Bets Near 90%
The mixed labor picture continues to feed aggressive expectations for a rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting.
- The CME FedWatch tool now implies roughly an 88%–90% probability that the Fed will cut its policy rate by a quarter‑point next week. [15]
- Barchart’s pre‑market note put the odds at about 89.2% for a cut and just over 10% for no change. [16]
Fed‑sensitive markets reacted accordingly:
- The 10‑year Treasury yield ticked up only modestly, hovering around 4.08%–4.10%, still well below peaks seen earlier in 2025. [17]
- Bitcoin traded just under $93,000, roughly flat on the day after a sharp rebound earlier in the week. [18]
Jeff Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, told Barchart that the “faltering labor market will be the focus for the Fed,” arguing that demand for workers has become weak enough to justify a cut even without a full‑blown recession. [19]
For equity investors, the message is clear: as long as the Fed is seen as easing, dips are being bought, even if the macro data are messy.
Earnings Movers: Salesforce, Dollar General, Kroger
Corporate news helped shape sector leadership today, with AI software, discount retail and groceries all in focus.
Salesforce: AI pays off
Salesforce (CRM) extended gains after delivering a strong earnings report on Wednesday:
- Adjusted earnings per share came in around $3.25, roughly $0.40 above analyst estimates, even as revenue landed close to expectations. [20]
- The company raised its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook, citing robust demand for its data and AI offerings. [21]
- Its new AI agent platform Agentforce has surpassed $500 million in annual recurring revenue, with the number of customers in production up about 70% quarter‑over‑quarter to roughly 2,200, according to analyst commentary. [22]
Shares of Salesforce were up about 2% in pre‑market trade and remained one of the Dow’s better performers during the session. [23]
Dollar General & discount retail: value wins
Dollar General (DG) was one of the standout winners on the day:
- Q3 net sales rose 4.6% year‑over‑year to $10.6 billion.
- Same‑store sales increased 2.5%.
- Operating profit jumped 31.5% to about $425.9 million.
- Diluted EPS climbed to roughly $1.28, up from $0.89 a year earlier. [24]
Dollar General reaffirmed plans to open around 575 new stores in fiscal 2025 and outlined an even more ambitious real‑estate plan for 2026, betting that financially stressed consumers will continue to trade down. [25]
- 24/7 Wall St. data showed Dollar General shares up close to 10% intraday, making it one of the strongest gainers in the S&P 500. [26]
The broader dollar‑store cohort also fared well:
- Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Five Below (FIVE) both reported better‑than‑expected results this week, highlighting strong demand from “value‑seeking” customers. [27]
- In pre‑market trading, Investopedia noted Dollar General up about 6%, with Five Below and Dollar Tree up roughly 3% and 1%, respectively. [28]
Taken together, the numbers reinforce the theme that inflation‑weary consumers are still spending—but carefully, favoring discounters over higher‑priced retailers.
Kroger: solid earnings, cautious guidance
Grocery giant Kroger (KR) delivered a mixed picture:
- Adjusted Q3 EPS came in at $1.05, slightly above consensus estimates near $1.03. [29]
- Quarterly revenue rose to $33.9 billion, up about 1% year‑on‑year but below analyst expectations around $34.2 billion. [30]
- The company cited a 2.6% increase in identical sales (ex‑fuel) and 17% e‑commerce growth, reflecting continued shifts in shopping behavior. [31]
Kroger nudged its full‑year adjusted EPS guidance to $4.75–$4.80, which, at the midpoint, comes in slightly under what Wall Street had hoped for. [32]
As a result, Kroger stock traded down roughly 3–4% intraday, landing on 24/7 Wall St.’s list of notable losers. [33]
Autos Rally on Trump’s Fuel‑Economy Rollback Plan
Another major story shaping sentiment today came from Washington and Detroit.
A new proposal from President Donald Trump would slash future fuel‑efficiency standards for U.S. automakers:
- Current law requires fleet‑wide averages of about 50 miles per gallon by 2031 for passenger cars and light trucks.
- Trump’s plan would lower that target sharply to 34 mpg, aiming to cut vehicle costs and support auto sales. [34]
According to live coverage from 24/7 Wall St.:
- The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) opened about 0.1% higher as traders digested the news.
- Ford, General Motors and Stellantis all moved higher in morning trade, with Stellantis reportedly up more than 4%. [35]
In Europe, auto stocks also outperformed after Bank of America upgrades and optimism over a Fed rate cut, contributing to modest gains in the Euro Stoxx 50. [36]
For the U.S. equity market, the relaxed fuel‑economy rules are seen as a near‑term tailwind for carmakers, though critics warn of longer‑term environmental and regulatory risks.
Big Tech & AI: Meta Under EU Scrutiny, Cost Cuts Boost Shares
Tech and AI remained central to today’s narrative.
Meta: EU antitrust probe vs. budget cuts
The European Commission formally opened an antitrust investigation into Meta over a new policy that limits how third‑party AI providers can access users through WhatsApp Business:
- Meta’s updated rules, announced in October, would restrict AI companies from using WhatsApp as a primary channel to reach customers, while Meta’s own “Meta AI” assistant would remain deeply integrated. [37]
- Regulators are concerned the policy could unfairly favor Meta’s own AI services and stifle competition.
Despite the regulatory overhang, Meta’s stock jumped around 4% on Thursday, according to Bloomberg, as investors cheered reports that CEO Mark Zuckerberg plans to cut back significantly on metaverse spending, redirecting resources toward more profitable initiatives. [38]
Salesforce, AI and labor
The AI boom is also visible in the labor data:
- Challenger estimates that over 54,000 layoffs in 2025 have explicitly cited AI as a factor, including 6,280 in November alone. [39]
At the same time, companies like Salesforce are showing that AI investments can drive meaningful revenue, with its data and AI offerings now approaching 4% of total annual recurring revenue and management raising long‑term forecasts as adoption accelerates. [40]
The combination of AI‑driven productivity gains and AI‑linked layoffs is becoming a defining theme for both the stock and job markets.
Strategists Still See a Bull Market Into Year‑End
Beyond the day’s headlines, market strategists remain broadly positive on where stocks go from here.
In a note published today, WallStreetZen’s Steve Reitmeister argued that the bull run that began in April—roughly a 43% move from trough to peak in the S&P 500—remains intact, even after a sharp November pullback in crowded trades like AI. [41]
Key points from his outlook:
- The recent “rolling correction”—heavy sector rotation with some groups falling 20% or more—has helped work off excesses. [42]
- Small caps in the Russell 2000 have outpaced large caps since mid‑November, suggesting a healthier, more value‑driven advance. [43]
- Reitmeister expects the S&P 500 to challenge the 7,000 level before January, assuming the Fed delivers on rate‑cut expectations and earnings momentum holds. [44]
He also warns, however, that:
- Employment and manufacturing data are flashing early warning signs, with key indicators like the Chicago PMI and ISM Manufacturing pointing to mild contraction. [45]
- A deeper deterioration in the economy or a policy misstep by the Fed could still trigger a more severe downturn in stocks.
For now, though, the base case among many strategists remains continued upside into year‑end, powered by easier monetary policy, resilient corporate profits and a catch‑up trade in beaten‑down segments like small caps and select value stocks. [46]
What to Watch Next
Investors will be watching several catalysts over the next few days that could shape how the December 4 session is remembered in hindsight:
- Friday inflation data: A key price index due tomorrow will be one of the last major inputs the Fed sees before its December 9–10 meeting. [47]
- Fed meeting next week: Futures markets are heavily priced for a quarter‑point rate cut; any deviation or hawkish guidance could jolt stocks and bonds. [48]
- Ongoing earnings: Results and guidance from remaining retailers, tech names and industrials will help confirm whether profit growth justifies valuations near record highs. [49]
For now, Wall Street’s message on December 4, 2025 is one of cautious optimism: stocks are near records, the Fed appears poised to ease, and earnings are broadly supportive—but the foundation rests on a labor market that looks softer beneath the surface than headline jobless claims might suggest.
References
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