USA Rare Earth, Inc. (NASDAQ: USAR) stock jumped around 25% in today’s session (December 4, 2025), after the company announced a new rare‑earth metals supply agreement through its Less Common Metals (LCM) subsidiary and as fresh analyst commentary highlighted its Stillwater magnet facility and “mine‑to‑magnet” growth story. [1]
Below is a complete, SEO‑optimized overview of USA Rare Earth stock today — including the latest news, fundamentals, analyst forecasts and key risks — suitable for readers following Google News and Discover.
USA Rare Earth (USAR) Stock Today: Price Snapshot
As of the close on December 4, 2025, USA Rare Earth stock trades around $17–18 per share, with intraday data showing approximately $17.48, up roughly 25% on the day and giving the company a market capitalization close to $1.8–1.9 billion. [2]
Key trading stats (approximate, intraday):
- Ticker: USAR (USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A) [3]
- Exchange: Nasdaq Global Market
- Price (Dec 4, 2025): ~$17.5
- Daily move: ~+25% vs. yesterday’s close
- 52‑week range: about $5.56 – $43.98 [4]
- Market cap: ~$1.9 billion [5]
Despite today’s big rebound, USAR is still trading well below its October peak above $30, after a brutal pullback in November following Q3 results and easing US–China trade tensions. [6]
What USA Rare Earth Does — And Why the Stock Matters
USA Rare Earth, Inc. is building a vertically integrated rare‑earths business, aiming to control the full chain from mining through finished magnets:
- A sintered NdFeB (neo) magnet plant in Stillwater, Oklahoma, targeting critical markets such as defense, automotive, aviation, industrial automation, AI/robotics and consumer electronics. [7]
- Majority ownership of the Round Top deposit in Texas, a polymetallic project containing multiple rare earths and critical minerals. [8]
- Less Common Metals (LCM) in the UK, a leading ex‑China producer of rare‑earth metals and alloys (notably NdPr, Samarium and SmCo) acquired in November 2025. [9]
The strategic pitch: USA Rare Earth wants to be a “mine‑to‑magnet” supplier outside China, at a time when the U.S. and allies are aggressively trying to reduce dependence on Chinese rare‑earth supply chains for national‑security reasons. [10]
Breaking News on December 4, 2025: LCM–Arnold–Solvay Deal Triggers Rally
The main catalyst for today’s surge is a new supply agreement involving USA Rare Earth’s LCM subsidiary:
- LCM signed a supply agreement with Solvay and Arnold Magnetic Technologies (a Compass Diversified subsidiary) to provide high‑quality rare‑earth metals and alloys used in Arnold’s advanced permanent magnets. [11]
- The deal is explicitly framed as an ex‑China source of rare‑earth materials for U.S. and European magnet production, supporting sectors like aerospace, defense, automotive and clean energy. [12]
- USA Rare Earth confirms that LCM will also feed alloy to the Stillwater magnet plant, which remains on track for Q1 2026 commissioning. [13]
A Motley Fool report (carried by Nasdaq) notes that the market is cheering this as an early sign that USA Rare Earth can start generating revenue even before its Stillwater plant is fully online, though the company has not disclosed the volume, duration or pricing of the contract. [14]
Today’s move comes on top of a Zacks analysis published this morning, which highlighted progress at the Stillwater facility, a strong cash position above $400 million after warrant exercises and PIPE financings, and the completion of the LCM acquisition as support for near‑term momentum. [15]
November 2025: LCM Acquisition, Solvay Partnership and Russell 2000 Inclusion
1. LCM acquisition closes (November 18, 2025)
On November 18, 2025, USA Rare Earth announced it had closed the acquisition of Less Common Metals Ltd. (LCM). The company describes LCM as the leading scaled ex‑China producer of rare‑earth metals and alloys, especially in samarium, SmCo and NdPr. [16]
Key strategic benefits outlined by USA Rare Earth:
- Secures a critical mid‑stream “metal‑making” link in its supply chain.
- Provides alloy and metal inputs for the Stillwater magnet plant.
- Adds circularity, as LCM has capabilities to process recycled rare‑earth oxides from spent magnets and production scrap. [17]
Management calls the deal “transformative” for building a resilient Western rare‑earth supply chain.
2. Solvay–Permag samarium partnership (November 20, 2025)
Just two days later, USA Rare Earth announced that LCM had formed a strategic partnership with Solvay to supply samarium metal to Permag, a high‑precision magnet manufacturer. [18]
- LCM will produce samarium using oxides separated by Solvay.
- The deal is designed to secure European samarium magnet supply over the next 3–5 years, reinforcing LCM’s role as a key supplier to European defense and clean‑energy industries. [19]
3. Preliminary inclusion in the Russell 2000 Index (effective December 22, 2025)
On November 26, 2025, USA Rare Earth announced it had been placed on FTSE Russell’s preliminary list for addition to the Russell 2000® Index, with final inclusion expected on December 22, 2025, pending routine review. [20]
Inclusion implies:
- Automatic entry into the Russell 3000® and related style indices.
- Potential forced buying from index funds and ETFs tracking these benchmarks, which can support trading liquidity and, in some cases, share‑price performance over time. [21]
Capital Structure and Warrant Clean‑Up: Redemption of USARW
Another recent milestone is the move to eliminate warrant overhang:
- On October 30, 2025, USA Rare Earth issued a notice of redemption for all outstanding public warrants (USARW) originally issued when the company was Inflection Point Acquisition Corp. II. [22]
- Warrant holders have until 5:00 p.m. New York time on December 1, 2025 to exercise, after which any unexercised warrants are redeemed for $0.01 each. [23]
- The company notes that full exercise of the remaining warrants could bring in roughly $123 million in additional cash, boosting liquidity but also increasing the share count. [24]
This move should simplify the capital structure by removing an overhang of derivative securities and making valuation cleaner, but it also underscores that USA Rare Earth is still heavily reliant on equity capital to fund its build‑out.
Q3 2025 Results: Cash Rich, Earnings Poor
USA Rare Earth reported Q3 2025 results on November 6, 2025. The key takeaways:
- Cash and cash equivalents: about $257–258 million as of September 30, 2025. [25]
- No significant debt at quarter‑end. [26]
- Net loss: roughly $156.7 million for Q3, and $247.4 million for the first nine months of 2025. [27]
- Losses are driven largely by non‑cash fair‑value adjustments on earnout and warrant liabilities, plus heavy investment in the Stillwater plant and corporate overhead. [28]
Financing highlights:
- A $75 million PIPE in May 2025 and a $125 million PIPE on September 29, 2025. [29]
- Approximately $163 million raised from warrant exercises after quarter‑end, pushing the company’s cash balance to over $400 million by November 2025. [30]
However, the Q3 10‑Q explicitly includes a “substantial doubt” going‑concern warning, noting that USA Rare Earth will need significant additional capital to execute its strategic plan, complete the Stillwater facility, and potentially develop Round Top. [31]
The earnings release and 10‑Q triggered a severe short‑term market reaction:
- Benzinga and Forbes both reported that USAR fell sharply — at one point losing about half its value — following the Q3 release, as investors digested the large non‑cash loss, ongoing cash burn and going‑concern language. [32]
Stillwater Magnet Facility: The Core of the Growth Story
Zacks’ latest piece, “Can USA Rare Earth’s Stillwater Facility Fuel Its Near‑Term Momentum?”, frames Stillwater as the engine of the entire investment thesis: [33]
- The plant is designed to produce NdFeB magnets, essential for defense systems, EV motors, aircraft, and industrial drives. [34]
- USA Rare Earth has been installing equipment, assembling Line 1a, and is preparing for commissioning in early 2026. [35]
- Upgrades and additional investment should support Line 1b, bringing capacity to around 1,200 metric tons of magnets per year at Stillwater in the initial phase. [36]
Combined with LCM’s alloy production, the goal is a vertically integrated supply chain:
- Round Top (Texas) for raw materials. [37]
- LCM (UK) for metals and alloys. [38]
- Stillwater (Oklahoma) for finished magnets. [39]
Analysts generally agree that meaningful revenue and margin visibility will only emerge once Stillwater is ramped, making execution on the 2026 timeline critical.
Extreme Volatility: From Government Hype to Trade‑Truce Hangover
USA Rare Earth has quickly developed a reputation as one of the most volatile small‑cap materials stocks on the market.
From StockLight’s aggregation of Motley Fool coverage and other outlets, we can outline the roller‑coaster: [40]
- Early October 2025:
- Articles like “Why Shares of USA Rare Earth Exploded 57% Higher This Week” and “Why USA Rare Earth Stock Keeps Going Up” linked big gains to speculation that the U.S. government might take a direct stake in the company and to analyst upgrades that doubled price targets.
- Late October–Early November 2025:
- “Why USA Rare Earth Stock Is Plunging Today” and “Why USA Rare Earth Stock Is Plummeting Today” attribute sharp sell‑offs to reports of a U.S.–China trade framework easing rare‑earth tensions, undermining the “crisis” narrative that had fueled some of the rally. [41]
- Post‑earnings (Nov 7, 2025):
- Benzinga and Forbes detail how Q3 losses and the going‑concern note led to a 50%+ intraday drawdown, even as the long‑term story remained intact. [42]
A separate Motley Fool piece titled “This Is My Biggest Worry About USA Rare Earth Stock” zeroes in on this macro risk: if U.S.–China tensions cool and supply chains normalize, the premium investors are paying for “national security” rare‑earth plays could compress quickly. [43]
Short interest around 6–7% of float, combined with a relatively small free float and a stream of news, has amplified both rallies and sell‑offs. [44]
Analyst Ratings and Stock Forecasts for USAR
Despite the volatility and lack of meaningful revenue so far, Wall Street coverage is surprisingly constructive.
Consensus ratings
- MarketBeat reports that all five analysts covering USAR currently rate it a Buy, with a consensus 12‑month price target around $26.33. That implies roughly 50–55% upside from the current share price near $17.5. [45]
- Zacks/TradingView and related aggregators show a broadly similar picture, with an average price target near $22.75, based on four or five recent targets. [46]
- MarketWatch lists an average recommendation of “Buy” and an average target in the low‑to‑mid‑$20s. [47]
Put simply: the Street is bullish, but price targets vary widely — from the mid‑teens up to $40 — and are being revised as the story evolves. [48]
Notable analyst calls
- William Blair (Neal Dingmann): Initiated coverage with a Buy, highlighting USA Rare Earth’s vertical integration, majority ownership of Round Top, and the strategic nature of rare‑earth magnets for defense and EVs. At the time, the stock had surged over 140% year‑to‑date, and Dingmann pointed to potential ongoing U.S. government investment in domestic rare‑earth supply as a key driver. [49]
- Canaccord Genuity: Earlier in the year, Canaccord started USA Rare Earth at Buy, calling rare‑earth magnets a critical U.S. need and noting the company’s planned magnet capacity and Round Top resource. Initial price targets were in the mid‑teens and later raised to around $22 after the LCM deal, despite short‑term dilution risk. [50]
- Zacks Equity Research: Currently rates USAR a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with a Value Score of D, pointing out that the stock trades at a negative forward P/E, has seen downward earnings revisions, but remains a key strategic player in a growing niche. [51]
Analysts consistently emphasize that USA Rare Earth is still pre‑scale, capital‑intensive, and unproven commercially, so even bullish ratings come with warnings about high execution and macro risk. [52]
Bull Case vs. Bear Case: How Investors Are Framing USAR
Bull case for USA Rare Earth stock
Supporters of USAR tend to focus on several core themes:
- Strategic, policy‑driven tailwinds
The U.S. and allies view rare‑earths as a national‑security priority; legislation and Defense Department programs aim to build non‑Chinese supply chains, mirroring earlier support given to MP Materials. [53] - Mine‑to‑magnet vertical integration
From Round Top resource development through LCM’s metal/alloy production to Stillwater magnets, USA Rare Earth offers a rare end‑to‑end model outside China, which could command premium valuations if executed successfully. [54] - Strengthened balance sheet (for now)
With over $400 million in cash and no significant debt after PIPE financings and warrant exercises, USA Rare Earth has runway to complete Stillwater and integrate LCM, at least in the near term. [55] - LCM partnerships as early revenue anchors
The Arnold–Solvay and Permag agreements give LCM multi‑year demand visibility and validate LCM’s ex‑China position, potentially creating early revenue streams while Stillwater ramps. [56] - Potential index and government support
Pending Russell 2000 inclusion and continued discussion of U.S. government backing for domestic rare‑earth suppliers add to the bull narrative. [57]
Bear case and key risks
Skeptics highlight equally significant concerns:
- No meaningful revenue yet, and heavy losses
The company is still largely pre‑revenue, even as it reported a Q3 net loss of more than $150 million and a going‑concern warning. That combination makes the stock highly sensitive to financing conditions and sentiment. [58] - Execution risk at Stillwater and Round Top
Building one of the first large‑scale NdFeB magnet plants in the U.S., commissioning it on time, securing customers and ramping to nameplate capacity are all non‑trivial tasks. Round Top itself still faces resource, permitting and economic‑viability questions. [59] - Macro and geopolitical whiplash
As Motley Fool has repeatedly pointed out, the stock has rallied on trade tensions and crashed when U.S.–China relations appear to thaw. If policy urgency fades or China relaxes export controls, the “strategic premium” baked into rare‑earth plays could deflate. [60] - Dilution and complex capital structure
PIPE financings, warrant exercises, earnout shares and potential future capital raises all contribute to ongoing dilution risk. Even after the current warrant redemption, management acknowledges that further funding will likely be required. [61] - High volatility and speculative flows
Short interest, options activity and social‑media enthusiasm have made USAR a momentum trade at times, with daily moves of 20–50% not uncommon. That volatility can cut both ways and may not suit conservative investors. [62]
USA Rare Earth Stock Forecast: What to Watch After December 4, 2025
While no one can predict short‑term price moves, the key forward‑looking catalysts for USAR appear clear:
- Details and ramp of LCM’s new contracts
Investors will be watching for disclosure on volumes, pricing and margins from the Arnold–Solvay and Permag agreements, and for signs that LCM can win additional long‑term contracts. [63] - Stillwater commissioning in Q1 2026
Any updates (positive or negative) on commissioning timing, first‑magnet production and initial customer shipments from Stillwater will likely move the stock sharply. [64] - Russell 2000 inclusion on December 22, 2025
Index additions often bring a burst of passive demand and higher trading liquidity; investors will track how USAR trades around that event. [65] - Further guidance on Round Top and long‑term capex
Pre‑feasibility milestones, updated capex estimates and any governmental or strategic funding tied to the deposit will influence longer‑term valuation assumptions. [66] - Macro headlines on U.S.–China trade and defense policy
News around export controls, tariffs, defense procurement and critical‑minerals policy has repeatedly driven big swings in rare‑earth stocks, and that is unlikely to change. [67]
Overall, the Street’s current forecast — reflected in consensus price targets in the mid‑$20s, with some as high as $40 — suggests analysts expect significant upside from today’s levels if USA Rare Earth can execute on its plan and if policy tailwinds remain strong. [68]
Should Investors Buy USA Rare Earth Stock Now?
From a news and analysis standpoint as of December 4, 2025:
- The story has improved in the past month thanks to
- closing the LCM acquisition,
- signing two strategic supply deals,
- securing preliminary Russell 2000 inclusion, and
- raising substantial capital via PIPEs and warrant exercises. [69]
- But the fundamental risks remain high, with no scaled revenue yet, large ongoing losses and a “substantial doubt” going‑concern warning still on the books. [70]
For long‑term, risk‑tolerant investors, USAR offers a leveraged bet on the U.S. rare‑earth industrial policy and magnet demand. For more conservative investors, the combination of volatility, execution risk and financing needs may be a reason to stay on the sidelines until Stillwater is commissioned and revenue becomes visible.
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