USD to INR Today, 4 December 2025: Rupee Breaches 90, RBI’s New Stance, Fed Cut Hopes and 2026

The US dollar–Indian rupee (USD/INR) pair is trading around historic territory on 4 December 2025, with the rupee having slipped past the psychologically crucial ₹90 per dollar level for the first time this week and briefly hitting fresh all‑time lows near ₹90.4. ^[1]

At the time of writing, most real‑time trackers show USD/INR fluctuating roughly between ₹89.9 and ₹90.6, with indicative spot quotes close to ₹90.0–90.3:

Investing.com puts today’s current rate near ₹89.96, with a day range of ₹89.89–₹90.56 and an opening print of ₹90.13. ^[2]
TradingEconomics cites a spot level around ₹90.01, noting a roughly 1.6% rupee weakening over the past month. ^[3]
DT Next reports the rupee touched a fresh record low of 90.43 in intraday trade before recovering to about 89.96 by the close as foreign banks sold dollars. ^[4]
Wise’s historical series shows that today marks the highest USD/INR print in at least the last six months, with the low of that period near ₹85.43 on 4 July 2025. ^[5]

In short: one US dollar now buys roughly ₹90, a new regime for a currency pair that spent most of early 2025 in the mid‑80s. ^[6]

1. How We Got to 90: A Week of Record Lows

The breach of 90 has been building for days:

On 3 December, USD/INR crossed 90 for the first time ever, hitting an intraday record near ₹90.29 before closing around ₹90.19, its fourth straight record low close. ^[7]
Today, 4 December, selling pressure extended that move with quotes up to ₹90.42–90.43 before a late recovery. ^[8]

Across multiple reports (Reuters, Moneycontrol, Pakistan Today, and others), the rupee is now down roughly 5–5.5% against the dollar in 2025, making it one of Asia’s worst‑performing currencies this year. ^[9]

2. What’s Driving the USD to INR Spike?

2.1 US–India Trade Tensions and 50% Tariffs

A central theme in nearly every analysis today is the US–India trade standoff:

A sweeping US tariff package with rates as high as 50% on key Indian exports has dented competitiveness and soured foreign investor sentiment towards Indian assets. ^[10]
Reuters and local media estimate foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have sold around $17 billion of Indian equities in 2025, amplifying pressure on the rupee. ^[11]

SBI Research, cited in a Mint analysis, describes a “trifecta” of headwinds:

Limbo in the US–India trade deal,
Persistent FPI outflows, and
The RBI’s clear stance of not aggressively defending any particular rupee level. ^[12]

2.2 Capital Outflows and a Wider Current Account Deficit

Capital and trade flows are equally important:

Foreign investors have pulled about $17 billion from Indian equities this year, while net FDI and external commercial borrowing have been relatively muted. ^[13]
India’s current account deficit (CAD) rose to $12.3 billion, or 1.3% of GDP, in Q2 FY26, from 0.8% in the first half of the fiscal year, according to official and bank estimates. ^[14]

With higher oil prices and tariff‑hit exports, the external funding gap is being filled at a time when global risk appetite for emerging markets is more selective—putting the rupee under steady pressure.

2.3 RBI’s “Hands‑Off, Not Hands‑Tied” Approach

A shift in the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) approach is another big story today:

Reuters reports that the RBI is now explicitly willing to “tolerate” a weaker rupee, focusing instead on curbing excessive volatility and speculation rather than defending a hard line (like 90) at any cost. ^[15]
Data cited by Mint show the RBI has intervened via spot and forward markets to the tune of roughly $30 billion between June and October, but still allowed the rupee to adjust to new global realities. ^[16]
Another Reuters piece notes that the RBI’s short dollar position in the forex market rose to $63.6 billion in October, underlining how it has leaned against rupee weakness while not fully offsetting it. ^[17]

In practice, this means the central bank is smoothing the path, not setting the destination for USD/INR.

2.4 Global Dollar Cycle and Looming Fed Rate Cuts

The rupee’s move is also happening against a shifting US dollar backdrop:

A Reuters FX poll shows strategists broadly expect a weaker dollar over the next year as the Federal Reserve is widely seen cutting rates, but a growing minority now thinks the dollar could rebound instead. ^[18]
Futures markets currently price an ~85% chance of a 25 bp Fed cut at the December 9–10 meeting, reinforcing the “dovish Fed” narrative. ^[19]
MUFG’s Asia FX note today highlights weak US private payrolls (ADP) as strengthening the case for cuts, while arguing that the dollar is likely to weaken in 2026 as rate differentials narrow—potentially helping Asian currencies including INR. ^[20]

But in the very short term, high US yields, global risk jitters and the tariff shock have kept USD demand strong, which is why the rupee has weakened even as markets talk about an eventual softer dollar.

3. Is the Rupee Fundamentally Weak—or Just Undervalued?

A major debate in today’s coverage is whether a 90+ USD/INR automatically implies a “weak” rupee.

3.1 Livemint: Falling INR ≠ Weak Currency

A widely‑shared Mint explainer argues that the recent slide “doesn’t mean the Indian currency is fundamentally weak” and frames the move as largely externally driven: ^[21]

Tariffs and trade uncertainty have hit exports.
FPI outflows have overshot underlying trade fundamentals.
The RBI has chosen not to be hyper‑interventionist, letting the rupee move closer to where markets want to price it.

The same piece notes that:

Since the US announced tariff hikes on 2 April 2025, the rupee has depreciated about 5.5% vs USD, the most among a basket of major economies, yet
The rupee remains one of the least volatile major currencies, with a coefficient of variation around 1.7% since April—suggesting orderly, not chaotic, depreciation. ^[22]

It also highlights RBI’s 40‑currency REER index slipping below 100 and staying undervalued for several months, implying that on a trade‑weighted, inflation‑adjusted basis the rupee is cheaper than its long‑run average. ^[23]

3.2 Government and Ratings Agencies Echo “Undervaluation” Theme

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal told Economic Times that even with the rupee sinking as far as ₹90.41 per dollar, it remains in an “undervalued zone”, pointing to 8.2% GDP growth, multi‑year‑low inflation and strong FX reserves as evidence that fundamentals are intact. ^[24]
Fitch Ratings, in a report released today, says the downside for INR is “limited” and projects the rupee strengthening to around ₹87 per dollar by end‑2026, up from an earlier forecast of ₹88.5 for the end of 2025. ^[25]

Bloomberg also frames the rupee as undervalued enough to potentially attract global funds, especially if growth stays strong and tariff pressures ease. ^[26]

The broad takeaway: the rupee is weak vs the dollar right now, but not obviously weak relative to India’s own economic fundamentals or to other currency baskets.

4. What Are Banks, Polls and Models Predicting for USD/INR?

4.1 Street and Institutional Forecasts

Different institutions see different pathways from here:

A Reuters poll of 37 FX strategists (syndicated via Economic Times and Business Standard) finds consensus for a modest rupee recovery from record lows, with median forecasts around ₹88.9 in three months, ₹88.8 by May 2026, and roughly ₹89.7 in 12 months. ^[27]
HDFC Bank, India’s largest private lender, warns that in the absence of a quick US–India trade deal, the rupee could slide toward ₹92 per dollar, and may hover in the 90–92 range in the meantime. The bank expects the CAD to widen to 1.4% of GDP in H2 FY26, from 0.8% in H1, if external pressures persist. ^[28]
MUFG expects some relief for the rupee if a trade deal eventually cuts US tariffs on Indian goods from 50% down to around 25%, but still targets USD/INR around 90.8 in 2026, reflecting lingering external imbalances and moderate capital inflows. ^[29]
ING, quoted in a Reuters piece on forward premiums, suggests INR could be one of the few high‑yielders with upside potential in 2026 if trade talks turn favourable and tariffs are reduced. ^[30]

4.2 Rating‑Agency View: Limited Downside, Gradual Recovery

Fitch’s latest global outlook is relatively optimistic for INR:

It expects the rupee to stabilise and strengthen to about ₹87 per dollar by end‑2026, and to hover near that level through 2027, implying some claw‑back from today’s 90+ levels but not a return to sub‑80 territory. ^[31]

4.3 Quant & Retail-Facing Forecast Models

Several popular retail and quant‑driven sites also published updated USD/INR outlooks:

XS.com (updated 11 November 2025) projects that USD/INR will stay elevated in the near term due to a strong USD, high crude prices, and wide rate differentials, but gradually soften over 2026–2030 as India’s growth and improved external balances kick in. Their baseline shows an average around ₹87.96 for December 2025 and ₹87.97 in January 2026, implying some pullback from current levels. ^[32]
TradersUnion’s long‑term statistical model sees USD/INR around ₹89.5 mid‑2026 and ₹92.0 by end‑2026, with further upside towards ₹103–104 by 2029–2030, reflecting a slow, structural rupee depreciation versus the dollar. ^[33]
LongForecast (Economy Forecast Agency) has one of the more bearish long‑run USD/INR paths, modeling the dollar rising above ₹100 by 2028 and ₹110+ by late 2029, under assumptions of persistent US strength and gradual rupee erosion. ^[34]
CoinCodex, focusing on technicals, shows USD/INR currently around ₹89.89, with the pair trading above both its 50‑day (₹88.62) and 200‑day (₹87.36) SMAs, and a 14‑day RSI around 75, signaling overbought conditions. Their model projects ₹96.35 in six months, ₹101.30 in a year, and ₹107.48 in five years, and labels USD/INR a “buy” in the short term. ^[35]

Important: These projections are model‑based scenarios rather than guarantees. All the quoted sources stress that forecasts can change quickly with new data, policy surprises, or geopolitical events.

5. RBI, Bond Markets and the Upcoming Policy Decisions

5.1 RBI Policy on 5 December: Rate Cut or Pause?

All eyes now turn to the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on 5 December:

A majority of economists in a Reuters poll expect a 25 bp rate cut, following 100 bps of easing earlier in 2025, but the rupee’s slide is making markets nervous about how far the RBI can go without triggering more FX pressure. ^[36]
Bond traders anticipate the 10‑year yield to stay broadly range‑bound until the decision, with the outcome and RBI’s commentary on INR likely to be major directional triggers for both bonds and currency. ^[37]

5.2 Fed Meeting on 9–10 December: Relief Rally for INR?

On the global side, the Federal Reserve’s December meeting is just as important:

Bloomberg notes that a Fed rate cut “may be just in time” for Asia’s pressured currencies, explicitly naming the rupee and Philippine peso as key beneficiaries of a softer dollar. ^[38]
If the Fed confirms the easing path that futures markets already price in, it could reduce the dollar’s carry advantage and take some heat off USD/INR, especially if paired with an RBI stance that signals prudence on further cuts.

6. Technical Picture: Key USD/INR Levels to Watch

Technical analysts quoted across Indian media see 90 as both a psychological and structural level:

A Mint piece describes a “large cup‑and‑handle” breakout in USD/INR, with price having already tested the 161.8% Fibonacci extension around 90.02 and a potential upside target near 91.50 if momentum continues. Support lies around 89.64 and 87.63. ^[39]
Another strategist expects USD/INR to trade in a broad band of 88.90–90.20 in the near term, with the 88.80–89.00 zone acting as strong support. A clean break below 89 would be the “first real sign” that the rupee is staging a durable comeback. ^[40]

In today’s session, the intraday 90.4+ spikes and subsequent pullback to sub‑90 illustrate that volatility is elevated and that the RBI (and possibly large foreign banks) are willing to lean against disorderly moves at extreme levels. ^[41]

7. What Does 90+ USD/INR Mean for You?

This section is for general information only and is not personalised investment advice.

7.1 For Importers and Dollar Borrowers

A stronger dollar means higher rupee costs for imported goods, especially energy, electronics, machinery and components.
Firms with unhedged dollar loans or payables may see immediate cost spikes; many treasury advisors quoted this week suggest importers use rallies to add hedges or cover near‑term payables rather than hoping for a quick return to 88. ^[42]

7.2 For Exporters and Remittance Receivers

Exporters and individuals receiving money from abroad benefit from a weaker rupee in rupee terms, but face the risk that sharp reversals (for example, if a trade deal suddenly materialises or the Fed is more dovish than expected) could erode these gains. ^[43]
Many bank strategists suggest exporters hedge a portion of their receivables to lock in favourable rates while allowing for some upside if USD/INR climbs further.

7.3 For Investors in Indian Equities and Bonds

For foreign investors, rupee weakness reduces dollar‑denominated returns; MSCI India is up about 7% in local terms but under 2% in dollar terms this year, due to FX losses. ^[44]
Some fund managers remain neutral or underweight India precisely because of FX risk, but note that if the rupee stabilises and trade tensions ease, India’s 8%+ growth could make it one of the more attractive stories in EM again. ^[45]

8. FAQs: USD to INR on 4 December 2025

Q1. What is the USD to INR rate today?

Most major platforms place USD/INR around ₹90, with intraday trades roughly between ₹89.9 and ₹90.6 on 4 December 2025. Exact levels vary by provider and update in real time. ^[46]

Q2. Why did the rupee fall below 90 per dollar?

The key drivers are:

Punitive US tariffs (up to 50%) and uncertainty around a US–India trade deal,
Heavy FPI outflows and softer FDI,
A wider current account deficit, and
A less interventionist RBI, which is allowing the rupee to weaken in line with external pressures while focusing on volatility control. ^[47]

Q3. Will the rupee fall further or recover?

No one knows for sure, but current consensus and scenario views are:

Street polls (Reuters): modest recovery to around ₹89 over 3–12 months, assuming a trade deal and continued strong growth. ^[48]
Fitch: rupee strengthens to about ₹87 per dollar by end‑2026 and stays near that level in 2027. ^[49]
HDFC Bank: without a trade deal, rupee could hover between ₹90 and ₹92. ^[50]
Quant/technical models (CoinCodex, LongForecast, etc.): generally see higher USD/INR over the next 1–5 years, though these are model‑driven and highly uncertain. ^[51]

Q4. Is now a good time to send money to India or hedge exposure?

That depends entirely on your personal cash‑flow needs, risk tolerance and time horizon. The only broadly shared points from analysts are:

Short term: volatility is high; levels above 90 offer attractive rupee receipts for inbound remittances and exporters.
Medium term: if tariffs are reduced and the Fed cuts rates as expected, there is a plausible path for INR to claw back some losses. But adverse scenarios (no trade deal, renewed risk aversion) could push USD/INR higher first.

For specific decisions, it’s important to consult a qualified financial professional who understands your situation.

9. What to Watch Next

If you follow USD/INR, the next few days are critical. Key triggers:

RBI policy decision – 5 December 2025 (rate move + rupee commentary). ^[52]
US Federal Reserve meeting – 9–10 December 2025 (size and tone of the expected rate cut). ^[53]
Any headlines on the US–India trade deal, especially regarding tariff rollback. ^[54]
FPI flow data and oil prices, which can quickly change the rupee’s near‑term trajectory. ^[55]

Until some of these issues resolve, expect USD/INR to trade nervously around the 90 handle, with sharp two‑way moves whenever new information hits the tape.

References

USD to INR Today, 4 December 2025: Rupee Breaches 90, RBI’s New Stance, Fed Cut Hopes and 2026–2030 Forecasts