Valaris Limited (NYSE: VAL) stock traded sharply lower in Tuesday’s session (Dec. 16, 2025), with the offshore driller pulling back after a strong run earlier this quarter. As of Dec. 16, VAL changed hands around the high-$40s, down roughly 8% on the day and well off its recent highs, with intraday trading spanning the upper-$40s to low-$50s. [1]
The timing is notable: the selloff comes just days after Valaris announced a major multi-year drillship award from Shell offshore Brazil—exactly the kind of long-duration contract investors usually like because it improves revenue visibility. The tension driving today’s tape is that “more visibility” doesn’t always mean “more near-term earnings,” especially when the start date is in 2027. [2]
Below is a detailed roundup of the latest news, forecasts, and analysis available as of 16.12.2025, and what they imply for Valaris stock heading into 2026–2027.
Valaris stock price today: what the Dec. 16 move is signaling
On Dec. 16, VAL’s decline brought the stock meaningfully below its 52-week high (reported around the low $60s), while still far above its 52-week low (in the high $20s). In other words: this is a pullback inside a still-strong longer-term range, not a trip back to the basement—at least not yet. [3]
That matters because Valaris has been a sentiment-driven stock in 2024–2025, swinging with:
- contract awards and backlog updates,
- the outlook for deepwater (drillships) vs. shallow-water (jackups),
- and macro concerns about oil prices and customer spending cycles.
Today’s drop, absent a single obvious “bad headline,” reads like a classic digestion move: investors reassessing timing, utilization, and how much optimism for 2027 was already priced in.
The headline Valaris news: Shell awards a multi-year Brazil contract for drillship DS-8
The most important piece of fresh Valaris-specific news in mid-December is the Shell offshore Brazil award for drillship VALARIS DS-8.
Valaris announced on Dec. 11, 2025 that it had been awarded a multi-year contract with Shell offshore Brazil:
- Expected start: Q1 2027
- Estimated duration: ~800 days
- Total contract value: ~$300 million
- Plus options totaling ~1 year [4]
A simple (and very rough) way to sanity-check the scale: $300 million over ~800 days implies an average of about $375,000 per day—but real economics depend on mobilization, contract structure, downtime provisions, reimbursables, and performance incentives. Still, it gives a feel for why the market pays attention to these awards. [5]
Valaris CEO Anton Dibowitz framed the deal as a Brazil deepwater signal, pointing to “growing IOC interest” and saying the company had secured over $2.5 billion of backlog year to date to support future earnings and cash flow. [6]
Multiple outlets and industry publications amplified the same core facts (contract size, timing, and Brazil focus), reinforcing that this wasn’t a rumor—it’s a real, high-visibility award. [7]
Why a “good” contract can still coincide with a down day
Here’s the key nuance driving a lot of the Dec. 16 conversation around Valaris stock:
1) The contract starts in 2027
Investors typically discount future cash flows—but markets can be impatient. A 2027 start helps long-term visibility, yet it may not fix nearer-term questions around utilization and earnings cadence in 2026.
2) “Backlog” is not the same as “next quarter’s revenue”
A Zacks analysis published Dec. 15 highlighted the Shell award as strengthening Valaris’ backlog (noting ~$2.5 billion in backlog secured year-to-date) and improving cash-flow visibility into 2027 and beyond. [8]
3) Macro risk still hangs over offshore drillers
A Citi note (via TheFly/TipRanks) captured the industry-level push-pull: offshore drillers sound more positive on contracting momentum, but lower crude prices can still delay an inflection and pressure dayrates. [9]
The market can hold all three ideas at once:
- “Great contract.”
- “Great… but later.”
- “And the macro could get weird in the meantime.”
Contract backlog: what we know from Valaris and what analysts are modeling
Valaris has been building backlog steadily through 2025.
In its Q2 2025 results (July 30, 2025), Valaris said it had secured more than $1.0 billion of new contract backlog since the prior fleet status report, raising total backlog to approximately $4.7 billion. The company highlighted awards for 7th gen drillships DS-15, DS-16, and DS-18 as part of that expansion. [10]
Third-party analysis has echoed that “mid-$4B” backlog framing. For example, Simply Wall St’s Dec. 13 piece referenced a $4.7 billion contract backlog and treated the Shell win as improving visibility into 2027. [11]
What’s new in December is less about the backlog number itself and more about backlog quality—i.e., how much is tied to high-spec drillships, how far it extends, and what that implies about pricing power into late 2026–2027.
Other recent Valaris contract news investors still track
The Shell DS-8 award wasn’t the only meaningful 2025 contract update.
Valaris also announced on Oct. 13, 2025 that it had been awarded a five-well contract with BP Exploration Delta Limited for drillship VALARIS DS-12 in Egypt:
- Expected start: Q2 2026
- Estimated duration: ~350 days
- Estimated total value: ~$140 million (inclusive of a mobilization fee)
- Plus three option wells [12]
Again, quick back-of-the-envelope: $140 million over ~350 days implies about $400,000 per day on average—though, as above, the details matter more than the division. [13]
Together, these types of awards help explain why many analysts keep pointing to late 2026 and 2027 as the period where deepwater tightening could show up most clearly in results—and why a 2027-start Shell contract can still be “today’s” story for VAL.
Valaris fundamentals: last reported quarter highlights (Q3 2025)
For investors trying to anchor the stock to operating reality (instead of headlines), Valaris’ most recent quarterly snapshot still matters.
In its Q3 2025 results (Oct. 29, 2025), Valaris reported, among other items:
- Net income of $187 million (vs. $114 million in Q2 2025), including a gain on sale of assets
- Adjusted EBITDA of $163 million (vs. $201 million in Q2 2025)
- Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash of $676 million as of Sept. 30, 2025 (up from $516 million as of June 30, 2025)
- The company also noted that cash increased due to operations and asset sale proceeds, partially offset by share repurchases and capex [14]
Valaris also explained a key operational wrinkle: in Floaters, revenue decreased partly because DS-15 and DS-18 completed contracts mid-quarter without follow-on work, with both rigs scheduled to start their next contracts in the second half of 2026. [15]
That kind of “gap timing” is exactly why the market can celebrate long-dated backlog while still sweating nearer-term utilization optics.
Analyst forecasts for Valaris stock: price targets and ratings as of Dec. 16, 2025
Wall Street’s broad stance on Valaris is best described as “cautiously constructive, but not unanimous.”
Consensus targets
- MarketBeat shows ~10 analysts with an average 12‑month price target around $54.06, with a high around $65 and low around $45.50. [16]
- Investing.com’s consensus data similarly shows an average 12‑month price target around 56.2, high 65, low 49, and a “Neutral” consensus distribution skewed heavily toward Holds. [17]
With the stock trading around the high-$40s on Dec. 16, those consensus targets imply a modest-to-mid upside scenario—if the backlog converts cleanly and the macro doesn’t undercut pricing.
Recent analyst actions and what they’re really arguing about
Analyst notes in the last several weeks sketch a debate less about “Is Valaris real?” and more about “How good is the next leg, and when?”
- Citi: Raised price target to $62 from $55, maintained Neutral, and pointed to more positive tone from offshore drillers—while warning low crude could still delay an inflection and weigh on rates. [18]
- Barclays: Raised target to $50 from $43, maintained Equal Weight, and highlighted expectations for deepwater activity to recover more meaningfully by late 2026 into 2027. [19]
- JPMorgan: Raised target to $49 from $38 but kept Underweight, reflecting a more skeptical stance even while updating numbers in a 2026 outlook reset. [20]
- BTIG: Raised target to $65 from $55 and maintained a Buy rating, tied to a constructive offshore drilling outlook. [21]
If you’re looking for the common thread: multiple firms are effectively saying the same thing in different accents—late 2026 and 2027 are the battleground years. Valaris’ latest Shell win fits that timeline almost too perfectly, which may be why the market is now more sensitive to any sign that the cycle could arrive late (or with less pricing power) than hoped.
Independent valuation takes: “slightly undervalued,” but sentiment cooling
A Simply Wall St analysis dated Dec. 13, 2025 argued Valaris was only mildly undervalued, citing a narrative fair value around $55.10 versus a recent close around $54.13, while noting that short-term returns had cooled even as longer-term performance remained positive. [22]
Simply Wall St’s forward-looking model view (last updated Dec. 10, 2025) also projects relatively modest topline growth but better earnings/EPS growth:
- earnings growth ~8.5% per year
- revenue growth ~0.8% per year
- EPS growth ~11.1% per year
- forecast ROE ~14.5% in three years [23]
That combination—low revenue growth but better earnings growth—is consistent with an offshore driller thesis where utilization and pricing/dayrate improvements do more work than pure fleet expansion.
Technical and trading lens: what momentum watchers are seeing
Some technical-analysis services flagged weakening momentum after the early-December highs, pointing to a recent pivot-top style signal and a short-term downtrend setup. [24]
Technical reads shouldn’t be confused with fundamentals, but they do influence flow in stocks like VAL, where energy-sector risk appetite can flip quickly.
What to watch next for Valaris stock
Going into early 2026, the catalysts that matter most for VAL are straightforward (even if the outcomes aren’t):
- More floater awards that fill 2026 white space
The market will keep rewarding evidence that high-spec drillships remain tight and bankable in the real world, not just in slide decks. - Any update that pulls cash flows forward
The Shell DS‑8 award is big—but its start date is the punchline. If Valaris can improve nearer-term visibility (or economics) elsewhere, that changes how the market discounts 2027. - Macro pressure on offshore spending
Citi’s warning about crude-price sensitivity is not abstract; it directly affects operator budgets and dayrate negotiations. [25] - Quarterly execution
Investors will keep anchoring to operational delivery, cash generation, and capital allocation (including buybacks), as highlighted in Valaris’ 2025 quarterly updates. [26]
Bottom line
As of Dec. 16, 2025, the Valaris stock story is not a mystery—it’s a timeline argument.
- The company just landed a high-visibility, multi-year Shell Brazil contract that supports deepwater demand narratives and extends visibility into 2027. [27]
- Analysts generally cluster around Hold/Neutral with price targets mostly in the mid-$50s, while the most bullish still point to $65 and the more cautious sit closer to $49–$50. [28]
- The stock’s sharp drop on Dec. 16 highlights that markets are now pressuring the “when,” not just the “what.” [29]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.valaris.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.valaris.com, 5. www.valaris.com, 6. www.valaris.com, 7. www.marinelog.com, 8. www.nasdaq.com, 9. www.tipranks.com, 10. www.valaris.com, 11. simplywall.st, 12. www.valaris.com, 13. www.valaris.com, 14. www.valaris.com, 15. www.valaris.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. simplywall.st, 23. simplywall.st, 24. stockinvest.us, 25. www.tipranks.com, 26. www.valaris.com, 27. www.valaris.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.investing.com
