NEW YORK, Jan 9, 2026, 08:20 EST — Premarket
Vale S.A.’s U.S.-listed shares were down 1.3% in premarket trade on Friday at $14.07, after Scotiabank cut the Brazilian miner to “Sector Perform” — a neutral call — and warned that rising supply could cool iron ore prices. “We project the benchmark iron ore price to decline to US$90.00/t in 2H26,” analyst Alfonso Salazar wrote, even as he lifted his price target for Vale to $15 from $14. 1
The call lands as iron ore steadies near recent highs but starts to wobble. The most-traded May contract in Dalian slipped 0.55% to 816 yuan a metric ton, while the Singapore Exchange benchmark for February was up 0.37% at $108.25 a ton. Port inventories in China have climbed for seven straight weeks and sat at 162.7 million tons by Jan. 8, near a record, consultancy Mysteel data showed. 2
That mix matters for Vale because iron ore still drives the bulk of its cash flow, and China’s steel mills set the tone for seaborne demand. When traders see stocks piling up at ports, they start asking whether the next bid will come from restocking — or from policy. It is not a settled argument.
Vale also has cash returns in the frame. The company said it paid a first dividend installment on Jan. 7 and that payments to U.S. ADR holders will start on Jan. 14; a second installment, including “interest on equity” — a Brazil-specific, tax-structured payout — is due later in the quarter. 3
Mining shares more broadly stayed in focus after Glencore and Rio Tinto confirmed early-stage merger discussions, a rare sign of the consolidation pressure building in big commodities. Rio is also one of Vale’s closest iron ore rivals, and any shift in strategy among the majors tends to spill into the rest of the group. 4
But the setup cuts both ways. If Beijing leans harder into stimulus or if supply growth stumbles, iron ore could stay firmer than bears expect and Vale’s slide could fade quickly. On the downside, a faster build in inventories or sharper drops in Chinese steel use would put the commodity — and Vale — back on the defensive.
Next up, investors will watch U.S. jobs data later on Friday for the read-through to the dollar and risk appetite, then Vale’s own calendar: the company plans to publish full-year financial statements for 2025 on Feb. 12, followed by an earnings webcast on Feb. 13. 5
