New York — Dec. 16, 2025 (11:30 a.m. EST). The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX)—Wall Street’s most-watched snapshot of expected S&P 500 volatility over the next 30 days—is firming again Tuesday as investors digest a heavy batch of delayed U.S. macro data, a still-choppy tech tape, and an options market that continues to price downside protection at a premium.
By late morning, the VIX was hovering around the 17 area (Investing.com showed ~17.13 at 11:38 a.m. with a 16.31–17.51 intraday range), a notable step up from Monday’s close and a reminder that while volatility isn’t “crisis-high,” it also isn’t back in the ultra-calm regime that defined parts of the recent rally. [1]
Below is what matters for VIX after the bell, why the options market is sending mixed signals (headline VIX vs. skew), and the catalysts most likely to shape volatility into tonight and Wednesday.
VIX snapshot: what “17” actually means for the S&P 500
A VIX print near 17 is often interpreted as “moderately elevated” risk appetite: not panic, but not complacency either. In practical terms:
- 17% annualized implied volatility translates roughly to about a ~1.1% one-day move in the S&P 500 (one standard deviation), or about ~4.9% over a month—a back-of-the-envelope conversion that traders use to sanity-check what options are implying. (This is a volatility translation, not a forecast of direction.)
The day’s range also matters. Tuesday’s trading band (roughly mid‑16s to mid‑17s) shows the market repricing short-term uncertainty in real time as data hits, yields move, and the equity tape rotates. [2]
Why VIX is up: tech rotation + a macro “catch-up” week
Monday’s setup is still the backdrop: U.S. stocks closed lower, with investors continuing to reduce exposure to parts of the AI/mega-cap tech trade while waiting for a wave of economic releases. In that session, the VIX rose to 16.50 (up 4.83% on the day), matching the market’s “less comfortable” tone even as the decline in the major indexes remained orderly. [3]
Saxo’s daily market note captured the tension well: the VIX is nudging higher, but very short-dated volatility gaugesstayed lower—suggesting alertness rather than outright fear. [4]
The big catalyst that hit today: delayed jobs data resets the rate narrative
Volatility today is tightly linked to rates—because equity volatility and bond volatility tend to feed each other when the market is trying to re-price the path of Fed policy.
After Tuesday’s delayed labor-market data, Reuters reported that fed funds futures briefly lifted the implied probability of a January rate cut (up to about 31% immediately after the report, versus 22% just before), as investors processed an uptick in unemployment and mixed payroll trends. [5]
Key details cited by Reuters:
- Nonfarm payrolls +64,000 in November
- Unemployment rate 4.6% (vs. 4.4% previously measured)
- October payrolls down 105,000 (with shutdown-related distortions) [6]
At the same time, Reuters noted that retail sales were unexpectedly flat in October (also delayed), adding to the “soft-ish stability” debate: growth isn’t booming, but it isn’t clearly rolling over either—exactly the kind of environment where options hedging can stay bid even if stocks aren’t crashing. [7]
PMIs added a second layer: slowing momentum, but inflation signals didn’t disappear
Another volatility input arrived via the December “flash” PMI data. Reuters reported that:
- S&P Global composite PMI slipped to 53.0 (from 54.2)
- Services PMI 52.9; manufacturing 51.8
- New orders softened, and input prices jumped to the highest in roughly three years [8]
That combination—cooling growth signals paired with sticky/renewed cost pressures—can be especially “volatility-friendly,” because it keeps markets guessing whether the Fed’s next move is dictated by growth risk or inflation risk. [9]
A key “under the hood” reason VIX may stay supported: bonds are repricing long-term risk
Beyond today’s point-in-time data, Reuters also pointed to rising Treasury term premia and policy uncertainty building into 2026—factors that can keep a floor under equity hedging demand even when equities are not in free-fall. [10]
The important link for equity traders: when bond markets become more sensitive to “regime” risk (term premia rising, curve steepening, policy uncertainty), equity investors tend to hedge more persistently, which can show up as higher VIX vs. realized volatility and a stickier skew.
The signal traders are watching most: VIX can be “contained,” but skew says hedges are still expensive
Here’s the nuance that matters for “VIX after the bell” coverage:
Saxo flagged that while headline volatility is not extreme, skew remains elevated—a sign that downside protection is being priced richer than the VIX level alone might imply. Saxo pegged skew around 161.86, calling it evidence that “crash protection” is still not cheap. [11]
Saxo also noted:
- VIX closed 16.50 Monday
- VIX1D 12.89 and VIX9D 14.20 (short-dated calm relative to 30-day)
- Options pricing implied about ±85 S&P 500 points (±1.25%) into Friday (Dec. 19) [12]
How to read that mix:
Short-dated volatility staying lower can mean “no imminent shock expected.” But high skew can mean “investors still want insurance,” particularly into event risk, thin year-end liquidity, and rate uncertainty. [13]
What happens to VIX after the bell: why futures matter more than spot
Many investors expect VIX to behave like a stock ticker after 4:00 p.m. ET. It doesn’t—because it’s calculated from S&P 500 (SPX) options prices.
Cboe’s methodology indicates VIX is calculated and disseminated during:
- Regular Trading Hours: roughly 9:31 a.m.–4:15 p.m. ET
- Global Trading Hours: roughly 3:15 a.m.–9:25 a.m. ET [14]
Cboe’s options-hours page also shows SPX/VIX options have a regular session that extends to 4:15 p.m. ET (with additional session designations around that window). [15]
So what do pros watch “after the bell”?
They shift attention to VIX futures (and S&P 500 futures), because VIX futures trade deep into the evening even when the cash equity market is closed.
VIX futures heading into the close: front-month near 17, curve points higher into 2026
Cboe’s VIX futures market data Tuesday showed:
- Front-month VX/Z5 (exp. Dec. 17, 2025) around 17.16 (with a listed settlement of 16.5036)
- January VX/F6 (exp. Jan. 21, 2026) around 18.77
- February VX/G6 (exp. Feb. 18, 2026) around 20.07 [16]
That’s a clear upward-sloping curve (contango), which often appears when the market expects volatility to be higher later than it is today—or when investors are paying a premium for forward protection.
Why tonight matters even more: VIX expiration is tomorrow
The front-month contract shown above expires Dec. 17, and Cboe notes VIX derivatives use a Special Opening Quotation (SOQ) process on the morning of expiration. [17]
That proximity can matter for “after the bell” positioning because traders often adjust hedges, rolls, and spreads heading into expiration—especially if the market is already uneasy.
Schwab Network also highlighted that recent S&P 500 pressure can be “mechanical,” with VIX expiration and options flows part of the backdrop—while warning that economic data can quickly change the volatility tone. [18]
The after-the-bell checklist: what could move volatility tonight
Here are the catalysts most likely to impact VIX futures and set up Wednesday’s session:
- Where the S&P 500 settles vs. intraday lows
- A late-day bounce often cools implied volatility.
- A weak close—especially if breadth deteriorates—can keep hedging demand elevated into the overnight session.
- Rates reaction after today’s data
- Today’s jobs and retail data changed rate-cut probabilities at the margin, per Reuters—those shifts can keep implied volatility “sticky.” [19]
- Growth vs. inflation debate after PMI details
- Softer activity paired with higher input prices can keep the market in a push-pull that supports option premiums. [20]
- Global event risk into the rest of the week
- Reuters highlighted a busy calendar with central bank meetings (BoE, ECB, BoJ) and upcoming U.S. inflation data later this week—conditions that can keep volatility elevated even if today’s tape is calm. [21]
- Front-month VIX roll/positioning
- With VX/Z5 expiring Dec. 17, traders will be watching whether spot VIX and futures converge smoothly—or whether a late-day equity move forces a last-minute repricing of the front end of the curve. [22]
Outlook into tonight and Wednesday: the most plausible volatility scenarios
Scenario A: “Orderly digestion” (VIX drifts lower after the bell)
If stocks stabilize into the close and rates calm down after the data burst, VIX futures can soften as traders fade intraday hedges. In this case, the market’s message becomes: “uncertainty acknowledged, but not escalating.”
Scenario B: “Sticky hedge bid” (VIX holds firm, skew stays rich)
If the market continues to price downside protection aggressively—especially heading into expiration—VIX may remain supported even without a sharp equity selloff. Saxo’s point about elevated skew is consistent with this regime. [23]
Scenario C: “Late-day shock” (VIX spikes into settlement window)
A sharp move late in the day—often tied to a yield jolt, a tech reversal, or unexpected headlines—can push up short-dated implied volatility quickly, and the move can carry into VIX futures trading after cash equities close.
Bottom line for “VIX today after the bell”
At 11:30 a.m. EST, the VIX’s message is less “panic” and more “pay attention”: volatility is moderately higher, macro uncertainty is back in focus after data delays, and the options market is still charging up for downside protection.
The most important “after the bell” tells won’t just be the VIX spot print—it will be:
- How VIX futures behave heading into tomorrow’s front-month expiration, and
- Whether skew stays elevated even if the index itself looks contained. [24]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.home.saxo, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.home.saxo, 12. www.home.saxo, 13. www.home.saxo, 14. cdn.cboe.com, 15. www.cboe.com, 16. www.cboe.com, 17. www.cboe.com, 18. schwabnetwork.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.cboe.com, 23. www.home.saxo, 24. www.cboe.com
