VKTX Stock Forecast 2025–2026: Can Viking Therapeutics’ Obesity Drug Pipeline Really Double the Share Price?

Viking Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VKTX) has quietly become one of the most closely watched small-cap names in the weight-loss drug trade. As of the last trading session on Friday, December 5, 2025, VKTX closed at $38.55, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $4.3–4.4 billion. ^[1]

Yet Wall Street’s consensus 12‑month price targets sit in the high‑$80s to around $100 per share, implying 120–160% upside from current levels. ^[2] A fresh December 7 analysis from German outlet boerse-global.de went further, calling out a “striking valuation gap” between the sub‑$40 share price and analyst targets that suggest the stock “could more than double” if its obesity franchise delivers. ^[3]

At the center of that bullish case is VK2735, Viking’s dual GLP‑1/GIP agonist being developed as both a weekly injection and a daily pill for obesity and related metabolic disorders. The next 12–24 months will test whether the hype around VKTX stock is justified—or whether the skeptics (and there are many) have it right.

VKTX stock today: price, performance and sentiment

VKTX has been volatile even by biotech standards:

Last close (Dec 5, 2025): $38.55
52‑week range: roughly $18.92–$52.58 ^[4]
From 52‑week high: down about 27%
1‑month performance: +3–4%
3‑month performance: up about 34%, helped by rapid progress in late‑stage obesity trials. ^[5]

Technical and sentiment indicators are mixed but tilting positive:

Relative Strength (RS) Rating: recently upgraded to 81 by Investor’s Business Daily, which flags VKTX as outperforming most stocks over the past year, though it is “not presently in a buy range” from a classical chart-pattern perspective. ^[6]
Moving averages: Intellectia’s technical dashboard reports VKTX in an overall bullish moving‑average trend as of December 7, with the 20‑day average above the 60‑day and 60‑day above the 200‑day, even though the very short‑term (5‑day vs 20‑day) setup is slightly negative. ^[7]
Key technical levels: Intellectia highlights support around $31.86 and $29.15 and resistance near $40.63 and $43.33. ^[8]

One important wrinkle: short interest is high. Estimates put short interest around 22–24% of the free float, with daily short‑sale ratios near 17–18% in early December. ^[9] That combination of strong bullish analyst targets and heavy short positioning sets the stage for sharp moves in either direction.

VK2735: the obesity drug driving the VKTX story

Viking’s entire equity story is dominated by VK2735, a dual agonist of the GLP‑1 and GIP receptors—the same hormone pathways targeted by market‑defining weight‑loss drugs from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. ^[10]

VK2735 is being advanced in two formulations:

A weekly subcutaneous injection now in Phase 3 (the VANQUISH program)
A once‑daily oral tablet that has completed a Phase 2 trial in obesity

Phase 2 injectable results: strong weight loss and cardiometabolic benefits

In the VENTURE Phase 2 trial of subcutaneous VK2735, patients receiving the drug once weekly for 13 weeks achieved up to ~14.7% mean weight loss from baseline, with no obvious plateau by the end of the trial. Safety and tolerability were described as “encouraging,” with most adverse events mild or moderate and discontinuation rates similar to placebo. ^[11]

An exploratory analysis presented at ObesityWeek 2025 went beyond the scale and looked at metabolic health:

Among patients with prediabetes, about 78% on VK2735 reverted to normal glycemic status after 13 weeks, compared with about 29% on placebo.
Among patients with metabolic syndrome, around 68% on VK2735 no longer met criteria for the syndrome vs roughly 38% on placebo. ^[12]

These cardiometabolic gains, layered on double‑digit weight loss, are a key part of the bullish narrative that VK2735 could compete with or complement the current GLP‑1 leaders.

Phase 2 oral tablet trial: double‑digit weight loss in 13 weeks

On August 19, 2025, Viking reported positive top‑line results from the VENTURE‑Oral Dosing Phase 2 trial, which evaluated the tablet version of VK2735 over 13 weeks in obese patients. ^[13]

Headline data included:

Up to 12.2% mean weight loss in the best‑performing VK2735 oral dose arm, versus about 1.3% for placebo after 13 weeks.
Up to ~97% of treated patients achieving at least 5% weight loss and up to ~80% achieving at least 10%.
A safety profile dominated by mild or moderate gastrointestinal side effects. ^[14]

An exploratory “maintenance” cohort, which rapidly titrated patients to a high dose and then stepped them down to a lower daily dose, suggested that significant weight loss could be maintained on lower maintenance doses—a potential differentiator if longer‑term data confirm the effect. ^[15]

Despite meeting endpoints, the market reaction was initially harsh: VKTX dropped more than 40% on the day of the announcement, partly because investors judged the pill’s performance as less impressive than emerging oral candidates from larger rivals. ^[16] That sell‑off is still visible in VKTX’s 12‑month chart.

Phase 3 VANQUISH‑1: enrollment completed early and above target

The VANQUISH program consists of two large Phase 3 trials of the injectable formulation:

VANQUISH‑1: ~4,500 adults with obesity or overweight and at least one weight‑related comorbidity
VANQUISH‑2: ~1,100 adults with obesity or overweight plus type 2 diabetes

Both studies are 78‑week, randomized, double‑blind, placebo‑controlled trials with multiple VK2735 dose arms (7.5 mg, 12.5 mg, 17.5 mg) and primary endpoints focused on percent body‑weight change. ^[17]

On November 19, 2025, Viking announced that VANQUISH‑1 enrollment had been completed ahead of schedule and above the original target, with approximately 4,650 participants enrolled. ^[18] Investor’s Business Daily noted that the stock had already risen more than 60% since mid‑August on enthusiasm for the obesity program before pulling back below a prior “buy zone” after the news. ^[19]

The completion of enrollment reduces development‑execution risk and starts the 78‑week clock toward top‑line Phase 3 data—likely in late 2026 or 2027, depending on follow‑up and analysis timelines. ^[20]

Maintenance‑dosing and next steps

Viking has also launched a 31‑week maintenance‑dosing study in roughly 180 obese adults. All participants receive VK2735 or placebo injections for 19 weeks, then switch to different maintenance regimens (monthly injections, daily oral tablets, weekly oral tablets or placebo) through Week 31. ^[21]

Results—expected around mid‑2026—could shape how VK2735 is positioned in real‑world practice, particularly if the same molecule can be used for both induction and maintenance across injectable and oral formats.

Beyond VK2735: a broader metabolic and endocrine pipeline

VK2735 may be the headline act, but Viking is trying to build a multi‑asset franchise in metabolic disease. The company’s pipeline overview highlights several programs: ^[22]

VK2809 (TRβ agonist) – NASH/MASH:
- Oral thyroid hormone receptor‑beta agonist.
- Phase 2b VOYAGE trial in NASH successfully met primary and secondary endpoints, with high rates of NASH resolution and fibrosis improvement. ^[23]
VK0214 – X‑linked adrenoleukodystrophy (X‑ALD):
- Oral TRβ agonist for a rare neuro‑metabolic disease.
- Phase 1b data showed good tolerability and reductions in very‑long‑chain fatty acids, supporting further development. ^[24]
Dual amylin/calcitonin receptor agonist (DACRA) program – obesity:
- Designed as a potential combination partner with GLP‑1/dual agonists or as an option for patients who cannot tolerate them.
- Viking plans an IND filing in early 2026, opening the door to combo regimens with VK2735 in the longer term. ^[25]

This breadth is central to arguments that Viking could be an eventual acquisition target in the obesity and metabolic scramble. A November 3 article from 24/7 Wall St. highlighted Viking’s dual obesity shots (injectable and oral VK2735) plus NASH asset VK2809 as reasons it might be “pharma’s next big buyout target,” noting that GLP‑1 market size is already over $100 billion and projected to exceed $150 billion by 2030. ^[26]

Financials: cash-rich, earnings-poor

VKTX is still a clinical‑stage company with no product revenue. The financial story is all about runway and burn.

From Viking’s Q3 2025 results, reported October 22: ^[27]

Cash, cash equivalents and investments: about $715 million at September 30, 2025.
Q3 2025 net loss:$90.8 million, or $0.81 per share, versus a $24.9 million loss ($0.22 per share) a year earlier.
Nine‑month 2025 net loss:$202.0 million ($1.80 per share), versus $74.5 million ($0.69 per share) in 2024.

The step‑up in losses is mainly from surging R&D expenses as VK2735 moves through Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials and other programs advance. Earlier, Q2 2025 results showed R&D of $60.2 million and a net loss of $65.6 million, with cash of $808 million as of June 30, 2025—so cash burn is meaningful but the balance sheet remains strong. ^[28]

Valuation metrics reflect a business priced entirely on future potential:

Trailing‑twelve‑month revenue: effectively $0. ^[29]
P/E ratio: around ‑38x, based on consensus loss estimates. ^[30]
Price‑to‑book: about 5.8x, versus roughly 3.6x for the broader biotech industry and above the stock’s five‑year average multiple. ^[31]

Viking also missed Q3 EPS expectations (‑$0.81 vs roughly ‑$0.67 consensus), which contributed to short‑term weakness in the stock and reinforced concerns that larger‑than‑expected trial spending might force future dilutive capital raises. ^[32]

Analyst ratings and VKTX stock forecasts

Despite its unprofitable status and clinical risk, VKTX is one of the more widely covered small‑cap biotechs on Wall Street—and the tone is notably bullish.

Street price targets: high‑double‑digit to triple‑digit

Different aggregators show slightly different snapshots, but they all point in the same direction:

Ticker Nerd (Dec 6, 2025):
- 25 Wall Street analysts.
- 17 Buy, 1 Hold, 0 Sell ratings.
- Median 12‑month target:$100.50 (range $36–$125)—about 160% upside from $38.55. ^[33]
StockAnalysis.com:
- 14 covering analysts.
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy”.
- Average price target:$87.07, with low at $30 and high at $125, implying about 126% upside from current levels. ^[34]
MarketBeat / Zacks‑linked data:
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”.
- Consensus price target: roughly $87.14.
- Analyst breakdown: 3 Strong Buy, 9 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell. ^[35]

Broker‑specific calls over the last few months include:

Canaccord Genuity: initiated and later reiterated a Buy / Strong Buy with targets around $106–$107. ^[36]
BTIG: reiterated a $125 target, among the most optimistic on the Street. ^[37]
Morgan Stanley: “Overweight” rating with a $102 target. ^[38]
J.P. Morgan: “Overweight,” but cut its target from $80 to $75 after recent volatility. ^[39]
Oppenheimer: maintains an Outperform rating with a $100 target. ^[40]

A December 7 article on boerse-global.de synthesized these views, noting that Viking’s average target near $87 implies ~125–126% upside, and highlighting that some technical analysts see a potential “accumulation zone” in the $30–37 range where institutions may be building positions. ^[41]

Quant and technical models

Algorithmic and technical‑driven services are, unsurprisingly, more cautious:

Intellectia AI classifies VKTX as a “Strong Buy candidate” in the short term, citing positive momentum indicators (10‑day momentum and MACD both positive) and an overall bullish moving‑average profile, but its formal technical rating is Neutral due to mixed signals and volatility. ^[42]
The same platform projects VKTX trading between $25 and $46 through 2026 based on historical pattern matching, with many months clustered in the low‑to‑mid $30s—a far more conservative view than Wall Street’s high‑double‑digit targets. ^[43]

The contrast between fundamental analyst optimism and more muted technical models is one reason VKTX has attracted both passionate bulls and aggressive short sellers.

Technical set‑up, short interest and trading dynamics

Several recent pieces have focused on VKTX as a high‑short‑interest momentum stock:

24/7 Wall St. included Viking in a list of “explosive stocks with high short interest,” noting that around 23% of its float is sold short and that shares have climbed from roughly $25 to the mid‑$30s since late summer. ^[44]
StockTitan’s data pegs short interest near 23.7% of float, with institutional ownership around 68% and insider ownership around 2–4% depending on the source. ^[45]

In early December, Zacks and Nasdaq highlighted that VKTX shares are up about 34% over the last three months, even though they remain down roughly 24% over the past year and modestly negative year‑to‑date. ^[46]

Investor’s Business Daily, meanwhile, has flagged:

An RS Rating above 80, suggesting leadership status among growth stocks. ^[47]
A recent undercut of a prior buy zone after the VANQUISH‑1 enrollment news, implying the potential for a base‑building phase rather than an immediate breakout. ^[48]

High short interest plus improving technicals can create the conditions for short squeezes, but they also reflect genuine skepticism about valuation and trial risk.

Macro and regulatory backdrop: GLP‑1 boom and FDA shifts

VKTX does not exist in a vacuum. It is surfing two powerful currents:

The GLP‑1 obesity boom.
The GLP‑1 drug market—dominated today by Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy/Ozempic and Eli Lilly’s Zepbound/Mounjaro—is already worth over $100 billion and could exceed $150 billion by 2030. ^[49] Viking’s dual GLP‑1/GIP agonist is explicitly positioned as a next‑generation competitor in that space, with early Phase 2 data suggesting weight loss in the same ballpark as some leading agents over shorter time frames. ^[50]
An evolving FDA stance on pivotal trials.
Recent coverage in Investor’s Business Daily noted that a policy shift at the FDA may allow certain drugs to be approved on the basis of a single pivotal study, rather than the traditional two‑trial standard. Biotech names like Viking were cited as potential beneficiaries, especially with large Phase 3 programs already underway. ^[51]

If regulators indeed accept robust data from one large, well‑controlled study, the completed enrollment in VANQUISH‑1 becomes even more important. That said, policy shifts can be nuanced and disease‑specific, and it is far from guaranteed that VK2735 will qualify for a single‑trial path.

Bull vs bear case for VKTX stock

The bullish argument

Supporters of VKTX stock tend to focus on several points:

Compelling obesity data: Double‑digit weight loss (up to ~15% with injections and ~12% with the oral tablet) over relatively short treatment windows, with encouraging cardiometabolic improvements and tolerability. ^[52]
Dual‑format strategy: The same molecule in both injectable and oral form could simplify switching between induction and maintenance therapy and reduce safety/tolerability unknowns compared with switching to a different drug. ^[53]
Advanced Phase 3 position: VANQUISH‑1 enrollment is already complete, putting Viking slightly ahead of many other second‑wave obesity players in the race to market. ^[54]
Robust balance sheet: With around $715 million in cash and investments and no marketed products, Viking appears funded through at least the initial Phase 3 readouts for VK2735 and into early work on its DACRA and NASH programs. ^[55]
Pipeline “optionality”: The combination of obesity (VK2735), NASH (VK2809), rare disease (VK0214) and early amylin agonists provides multiple shots on goal in large or strategic markets. ^[56]
Takeover potential: With a market cap around $4.3–4.4 billion, some commentators argue Viking looks inexpensive relative to recent multi‑billion‑dollar obesity‑focused acquisitions of companies at similar or earlier stages. ^[57]

Overlay all of that with consensus price targets 120–160% above the current share price, and you get the bullish thesis that VKTX offers asymmetric upside if VK2735 can carve out even a modest slice of the booming obesity market. ^[58]

The bearish argument

Skeptics, including a sizable short‑seller base, emphasize different risks:

Clinical and competitive risk:
VK2735 is still unapproved. Phase 3 obesity trials are long, expensive and unforgiving. Competitors like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk already have entrenched franchises and are developing new oral and multi‑agonist drugs that may match or exceed VK2735’s efficacy. Some coverage of the oral VK2735 Phase 2 data noted that while the trial met endpoints, the magnitude of weight loss did not clearly outclass the best‑in‑class programs from larger pharma. ^[59]
Valuation risk:
Even after its pullback from 2024–2025 highs, VKTX trades at a premium price‑to‑book multiple versus many development‑stage biotechs and has no revenue to anchor valuation. ^[60]
Financing and dilution:
Phase 3 obesity programs and eventual commercialization efforts are capital‑intensive. Despite the current $700‑plus million cash position, bears argue that Viking may still need to raise additional equity to fund large outcomes trials, manufacturing scale‑up and marketing—especially if it chooses to go it alone rather than partner or sell. ^[61]
High short interest as a warning sign:
Short interest in the low‑20s percent of float signals that a meaningful slice of sophisticated investors are betting against the stock, whether on valuation, execution risk or a view that Phase 3 results will not live up to expectations. ^[62]
Regulatory uncertainty:
Hopes that a single large pivotal study might be enough for approval hinge on evolving FDA practice and may not hold in obesity, where safety scrutiny is intense and real‑world adherence patterns are complex. ^[63]

In short: the bear case says VKTX is priced for a best‑case outcome in a very crowded, high‑bar market.

What to watch for in 2026 and beyond

For investors tracking VKTX over the next 12–24 months, several milestones will likely drive the stock more than day‑to‑day technicals:

Progress updates and interim signals from the VANQUISH Phase 3 program (even before full 78‑week data). ^[64]
Regulatory dialogue around the oral formulation of VK2735, following Viking’s planned meetings with health authorities on next‑step trial design. ^[65]
Results from the maintenance‑dosing study (mid‑2026), which could shape how VK2735 is used over years rather than months. ^[66]
Further data and strategic updates on VK2809 (NASH) and the amylin agonist program, including a planned IND filing for the latter in early 2026. ^[67]
Any M&A rumors or actual bids, especially if large pharma continues paying rich premiums for late‑stage obesity assets. ^[68]

Bottom line: how to think about VKTX stock now

As of December 7, 2025, VKTX sits at an interesting crossroads:

The clinical data package for VK2735—both injectable and oral—looks competitive enough to justify real optimism, especially when combined with strong cardiometabolic effects and a sizable cash cushion. ^[69]
Wall Street analysts are overwhelmingly positive, with median and average price targets implying that the stock could more than double if things go right. ^[70]
At the same time, short sellers, premium valuation metrics and Phase 3 risk are clear reminders that VKTX is not a low‑risk way to play the obesity theme.

For investors, VKTX is best viewed as a high‑beta, high‑risk, high‑potential‑reward biotech whose fate will be determined by the quality of its Phase 3 data, the competitive landscape when those data arrive and management’s capital‑allocation decisions around partnering or going it alone.