Vodafone Idea Share Price Near 52-Week High: AGR Relief Hopes, Fundraising and Tariff Buzz Fuel Rally

Vodafone Idea Ltd (NSE: IDEA, BSE: 532822) is back in the spotlight on 10 December 2025 as its share price hovers just below a fresh 52-week high, backed by heavy trading volumes, improving quarterly numbers and renewed optimism around regulatory relief on long‑standing adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues.

As of early afternoon on 10 December, the stock was trading around ₹10.8–10.9 per share, after hitting an intraday high of ₹11.07 – only a tick below its 52‑week peak of ₹11.08 touched in mid‑November. Over the past six months, Vodafone Idea has delivered a gain of roughly 55%, lifting its market capitalisation to about ₹1.16 lakh crore. ^[1]

Trading activity has been intense. On 10 December, exchanges recorded traded volume of about 22.5 crore shares in Vodafone Idea, translating into turnover of roughly ₹245–246 crore – placing it among the most actively traded stocks by value in the telecom services space. ^[2] The stock has climbed around 8% over the last two sessions and has now rebounded more than 80% from its 52‑week low of ₹6.12 hit in August. ^[3]

So what exactly is driving the move on 10 December 2025, and how are analysts thinking about Vodafone Idea from here? Let’s break it down.

Vodafone Idea share price today: key drivers behind the 10 December move

1. Brokerage reaffirmation and higher target price

Brokerages have turned more constructive at the margin, even if most still acknowledge that Vodafone Idea’s balance sheet is stretched.

A fresh note from JM Financial on the telecom sector expects average revenue per user (ARPU) for Indian telcos to grow at roughly 12% per year over FY25–FY28, driven by a combination of tariff hikes and premiumisation (migration to higher‑value 4G/5G and post‑paid plans). ^[4]

Within that framework, the brokerage:

Maintains an ADD rating on Vodafone Idea
Raises its target price from ₹11 to ₹11.5 per share, implying only limited upside from current levels
Explicitly builds in a somewhat larger potential waiver on AGR dues for the company, based on recent court and government developments ^[5]

This “almost at fair value” target, combined with heavy trading volumes, helps explain why the stock is levitating close to its 52‑week high rather than breaking sharply higher or rolling over.

2. AGR dues relief narrative is alive and kicking

For years, AGR dues have been the millstone around Vodafone Idea’s neck. That overhang looks a little lighter after a series of legal and policy developments in October–November:

Supreme Court window for full relief: In early November, India’s Supreme Court clarified that the government is free to consider full relief on Vodafone Idea’s AGR dues, including the additional demand and the main outstanding amount, subject to legal limits. The clarification triggered a sharp rally in the stock and opened the door to a negotiated solution on dues that total nearly ₹80,000 crore. ^[6]
Government review underway: Following the court order, officials from the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) and the Finance Ministry have begun reassessing the company’s AGR liabilities up to FY17, including interest and penalties. Reporting suggests that a complete waiver is unlikely, but that the intent is to support the sector’s revival without breaching the court’s boundaries. ^[7]
Ministerial commentary: Telecom minister Jyotiraditya Scindia recently indicated that the DoT is waiting for a formal proposal from Vodafone Idea on AGR relief and will make a recommendation once it has evaluated the company’s plan. He also flagged that the government wants to maintain a “3+1” market structure in telecom – essentially signalling that it does not want the third private operator to fail. ^[8]

This mix of judicial leeway and political signalling has fuelled investor hopes that a meaningful portion of AGR dues could be written down or rescheduled, easing the path to fresh bank funding.

3. Fresh fundraising steps: corporate guarantee and high‑yield bonds

The market is also reacting to tangible steps on the funding side:

On 27 November 2025, Vodafone Idea Telecom Infrastructure (VITIL), a wholly owned subsidiary, cut the size of its planned rupee bond issue from ₹50,000 crore to about ₹32,000 crore, citing expectations of cheaper bank loans in 2026. The revised plan involves two‑ and three‑year bonds with coupons in the low‑ to mid‑teens, backed by guarantees from the parent. ^[9]
On 9 December 2025, Vodafone Idea’s board approved a corporate guarantee of up to ₹3,300 crore and a pledge over 100% of the equity in VITIL to secure a fresh non‑convertible debenture (NCD) issue by the subsidiary. The NCDs are described as unlisted, unrated, secured and redeemable – essentially high‑risk, asset‑backed funding. ^[10]

These moves are meant to bridge funding for ongoing network expansion and debt servicing until larger, cheaper bank lines can be tied up – contingent, again, on AGR clarity and government comfort.

4. Sector‑wide tariff hike chatter and Jio IPO tailwind

Brokerages are increasingly treating a tariff reset in late 2025 or early 2026 as a base case, which would directly benefit Vodafone Idea if it can hold its subscriber base through the transition.

Two strands are important here:

Jio IPO and tariff discipline: JM Financial argues that Reliance Jio’s planned IPO in the first half of calendar 2026 strengthens the case for a firmer pricing environment. With Jio and Bharti Airtel already having completed their pan‑India 5G roll‑outs and capex moderating, the sector needs higher ARPUs (towards ₹270–₹300 by FY28) to earn reasonable returns. ^[11]
Motilal Oswal’s tariff math: Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) assumes a 15% headline tariff hike in December 2025, but also notes that significant AGR relief for Vodafone Idea could paradoxically delay such hikes, as regulators and operators balance affordability with sector health. MOFSL stresses that India still has among the world’s lowest data prices, even as usage is among the highest – leaving room for continued “tariff repair” over time. ^[12]

For Vodafone Idea, which currently earns ARPU of ₹180 versus ~₹210 for Jio and ~₹250+ for Airtel, even modest tariff hikes and continued premiumisation offer meaningful leverage to revenue and Ebitda. ^[13]

AGR dues and government support: still the central story

Even after an April 2025 decision in which the government converted about ₹36,950 crore of spectrum dues into equity – taking its stake in Vodafone Idea to roughly 48.99% – the company’s regulatory obligations remain huge. ^[14]

According to recent disclosures and analysis:

As of March 2025, total dues to the government (deferred spectrum plus AGR) were estimated at nearly ₹1.94 lakh crore, including around ₹75,900 crore of AGR‑linked liabilities. ^[15]
The April conversion offered an estimated cash flow relief of around ₹40,000 crore over the coming years but left leverage uncomfortably high, with net debt‑to‑Ebitda still close to 18x by some brokerage estimates. ^[16]

The Supreme Court’s late‑October and early‑November orders allowing the government to reconsider both the additional AGR demand and the total dues up to FY17 have therefore been a game‑changer for sentiment. ^[17]

However, NDTV Profit and other outlets report that:

A full waiver is not on the table.
Officials are instead exploring recalculation, interest and penalty adjustments, and longer‑tenor repayment structures, with the political goal of keeping the third operator viable while respecting legal constraints. ^[18]

In simple terms: the market is now pricing in some combination of AGR relief and extended payment terms – but the magnitude and timing remain highly uncertain. That uncertainty is exactly what keeps Vodafone Idea’s stock volatile.

Q2 FY26 results: losses narrowing, ARPU doing the heavy lifting

Vodafone Idea’s latest reported quarter (Q2 FY26, July–September 2025) offered a mix of slow operational improvement and persistent financial strain:

Net loss: Narrowed to about ₹5,524 crore from more than ₹7,100 crore a year earlier, helped by higher ARPU and lower finance costs. ^[19]
Revenue: Increased roughly 2.4% year‑on‑year to around ₹11,195 crore, as more users migrated to higher‑value plans. ^[20]
ARPU: Climbed to ₹180, up about 8.7–9% versus ₹166 in the same quarter last year, supported by customer upgrades and prior tariff tweaks. ^[21]
Subscribers: Total mobile subscriber base stood near 196–197 million, with about 128 million 4G/5G users, up modestly year‑on‑year. ^[22]
Ebitda: Improved slightly, with Ebitda margin around 42%, though cash Ebitda (before lease accounting) remained under pressure. ^[23]

On the network side, management has highlighted that:

4G coverage now reaches over 84% of India’s population,
5G has been rolled out in all 17 circles where Vodafone Idea holds 5G spectrum, and
the goal is to push 4G coverage to around 90% while densifying 5G in markets with rising 5G handset penetration. ^[24]

That expansion, however, comes at a cost. Vodafone Idea has outlined a three‑year capex plan of ₹50,000–55,000 crore for 4G and 5G build‑out in its priority circles – spending that can only be sustained if fresh capital keeps flowing and ARPU keeps rising. ^[25]

Balance sheet reality: high leverage, negative net worth

Underneath the ARPU and volume headlines, Vodafone Idea’s core financials still look fragile.

Data from Screener, Groww and exchange filings show that: ^[26]

Market cap: ~₹1.16 lakh crore at current prices
Book value per share: Around –₹7.6, implying negative net worth
ROCE (return on capital employed): Roughly –2%
Debt‑to‑equity: Around 2.8x, even after the government’s equity conversion
Total debt: About ₹2.03 lakh crore as of Q2 FY26, including AGR and spectrum-related obligations
Net debt (ex‑cash): Estimated at ₹1.7 lakh crore, with AGR dues alone near ₹75,000 crore ^[27]

On the positive side, the company has built a cash buffer and continued to invest:

Cash & bank balance: Around ₹30,800 crore, supported in part by earlier equity raises
Bank debt: Roughly ₹15,300 crore
Q2 FY26 capex: About ₹1,750 crore in the quarter ^[28]

Still, brokerages such as Ambit and others describe Vodafone Idea as being in a “precarious” position: high leverage, ongoing losses, and heavy dependence on tariff hikes and regulatory forbearance for survival. ^[29]

Analyst views and Vodafone Idea stock forecast

Consensus: Neutral/Hold, with moderate downside to target

Global and domestic analyst consensus on Vodafone Idea can be summarised as cautiously negative:

Rating: Investing.com and MarketScreener aggregate views from around 21 analysts and classify the stock’s consensus stance as roughly Neutral / Hold. ^[30]
Average 12‑month target price: About ₹8.9 per share
Target range:
- High: ₹15
- Low: ₹2.4
Implied move: At the current price near ₹10.8, the average target implies mid‑teens percentage downside, though the highest target suggests material upside if things go right. ^[31]

Trendlyne’s India‑focused dataset (a smaller set of domestic broker reports) shows a slightly lower average target of around ₹7.3, signalling that many local analysts remain sceptical about the company’s ability to execute a full turnaround without significant dilution or further relief. ^[32]

Interestingly, retail sentiment on platforms like Trendlyne skews more optimistic, with roughly three‑quarters of user votes on the stock falling in the “Buy” bucket and technical indicators flagging “moderately bullish” momentum near the 52‑week high. ^[33]

Broker specifics: JM Financial, MOFSL and others

JM Financial: As noted earlier, maintains ADD with a target of ₹11.5, building in (a) 12% sector‑wide ARPU CAGR, (b) a gradual shift to pay‑as‑you‑use data tariffs, and (c) a somewhat higher assumed waiver on AGR dues after the Supreme Court ruling. ^[34]
Motilal Oswal (MOFSL): Describes potential AGR relief as a “significant” positive for Vodafone Idea but continues to prefer Bharti Airtel and Jio for structural exposure to the telecom theme. MOFSL’s base case assumes a 15% tariff hike in December 2025, but notes that if relief is generous, tariff hikes could be postponed. ^[35]
Other houses: Several brokerages emphasise that even after equitisation and any AGR relief, Vodafone Idea will likely need ₹40,000 crore or more of additional funding over FY26–27 to meet dues and capex; they see the company remaining a distant number‑three player, dependent on continued government support. ^[36]

Bull vs bear case: how investors are framing Vodafone Idea now

Bull case: why optimists are still interested

Investors in the bullish camp typically highlight:

Government skin in the game
With nearly half the company now owned by the Indian government, the political cost of a Vodafone Idea collapse has gone up sharply. Supporters argue that the state is incentivised to keep the operator alive to preserve competition, protect jobs and safeguard bank and bond exposures. ^[37]
Regulatory tailwinds on AGR
The Supreme Court’s flexibility plus ongoing government review are seen as signals that regulators will not push Vodafone Idea over the edge. Even a partial reduction in dues, combined with longer payment tenors, could unlock cheaper bank funding and ease refinancing risk. ^[38]
ARPU and tariff upside
With ARPU at ₹180 versus much higher figures for Jio and Airtel, Vodafone Idea has substantial room for ARPU expansion through both tariff hikes and customer upgrades. The sector’s unusually low data pricing relative to the world strengthens the argument that tariffs must rise to sustainable levels. ^[39]
Network catch‑up and 5G roll‑out
The company has completed roll‑out of 5G in 17 spectrum circles and is still investing meaningfully in 4G expansion, aided by tower assets and infrastructure sharing. If funding remains available, that could help stabilise subscriber losses and improve network perception over time. ^[40]
Option value of a strategic investor
There has been recurring speculation – including reports linked to US‑based private equity firm Tillman Global – about a potential large equity infusion in exchange for significant control. Even though no binding deal has materialised, the possibility of a deep‑pocketed new promoter underpins some of the “option value” in the current valuation. ^[41]

Bear case: why many analysts remain cautious or negative

The bear (or at least wary) camp focuses on risks that have not gone away:

Balance sheet stress and negative equity
Negative book value, very high leverage, and dependence on expensive high‑yield financing remain core concerns. If AGR relief or tariff hikes fall short of expectations, the company may be forced into repeated equity raises at depressed prices, diluting existing shareholders. ^[42]
Execution risk on capex and 5G
A three‑year capex plan of ₹50,000–55,000 crore is ambitious for a company still generating large accounting losses and modest cash Ebitda. Any wobble in fundraising could slow roll‑outs, leaving Vodafone Idea stuck in a vicious circle of weaker network, higher churn and stagnant ARPU. ^[43]
Competitive pressure from Jio and Airtel
Vodafone Idea’s ARPU trails rivals, its subscriber base continues to shrink in some months, and both Jio and Airtel have stronger balance sheets and deeper pockets. Even with tariff hikes, there is no guarantee that Vi can gain share; it might simply ride along as a weak third player. ^[44]
Policy and timing uncertainty
The Supreme Court has allowed the government to consider full AGR relief; it hasn’t mandated it. Official commentary suggests that a complete waiver is unlikely, and the quantum of relief, if any, is unknown. Similarly, tariff hikes assumed for December 2025 could be postponed if policymakers fear public backlash or if operators cannot coordinate. ^[45]
High cost of interim funding
Two‑digit coupons on recent bond proposals and heavily collateralised NCDs show that creditors still see Vodafone Idea as risky. If bank funding at lower rates doesn’t materialise in 2026, the company could be stuck with expensive debt that eats into the benefit of any AGR relief. ^[46]

Key triggers to watch over the next 6–12 months

For investors tracking Vodafone Idea into 2026, a few milestones stand out:

Final government decision on AGR dues
Quantum of write‑downs (if any), structure of interest and penalties, and revised payment schedules will all directly affect solvency and borrowing costs. ^[47]
Timing and scale of tariff hikes
Whether a meaningful tariff hike actually lands in December 2025 or slips into 2026 will influence near‑term cash flows and ARPU trajectories. ^[48]
Progress on bond/NCD placements and bank lines
Closing the trimmed bond issuance, completing the ₹3,300‑crore NCD raise and securing cheaper bank funding are critical to support the announced capex plan. ^[49]
Subscriber trends and ARPU mix
Quarterly disclosures on subscriber churn, 4G/5G additions and ARPU will show whether network investments are actually translating into better customer metrics. ^[50]
Any concrete strategic investor moves
Formal announcements about new promoters or large equity infusions – or the lack of them – will shape perceptions of the company’s long‑term independence and growth prospects. ^[51]

Bottom line

On 10 December 2025, Vodafone Idea’s share price is trading like a high‑beta bet on three things:

Regulatory mercy on AGR dues,
Sector‑wide pricing discipline via tariff hikes, and
Successful refinancing and capex execution to close the gap with Jio and Airtel.

The upside story is that with government support, higher tariffs and continued ARPU growth, Vodafone Idea could gradually deleverage, stabilise its subscriber base and justify its current mid‑cap‑plus valuation – especially if a deep‑pocketed strategic investor steps in on attractive terms.

The downside risk is that relief proves modest, tariff hikes slip, funding remains expensive and dilution continues – leaving today’s rally as another spike in a long, volatile restructuring saga.

Either way, at current levels the stock reflects not just telecom fundamentals but also a heavy dose of policy and execution risk. Anyone considering the shares needs to be comfortable with that risk‑reward equation and should treat broker targets and consensus forecasts as inputs, not guarantees. This overview is informational and not investment advice; personal financial decisions are best made with a registered adviser who can look at your overall situation.