VW Aktie Today: Why Volkswagen’s Share Price Is Surging on 4 December 2025

Volkswagen’s preference share, the VW Aktie (VOW3), is back in the spotlight. On 4 December 2025, the stock is pushing higher again as investors digest a mix of big restructuring moves, political backing in Germany – and fresh signals from Brussels that could ease pressure on Volkswagen’s electric-car business in China.

Below is a comprehensive, up‑to‑date look at VW share price performance, today’s key news, the latest forecasts, dividend outlook and the main opportunities and risks around Volkswagen stock.

VW share price on 4 December 2025: strong rebound continues

On Thursday afternoon, Volkswagen’s preferred share (VOW3) is trading around €105–106 on Tradegate/Xetra, up almost 3% intraday versus Wednesday’s close. ^[1]

Key performance metrics:

1-day: about +2.9%
5 days: roughly +6–7%
1 month: around +12.5%
1 year: about +28.6%
3 years: still around ‑27% (long-term holders are far from break-even) ^[2]

At current levels, wallstreet‑online estimates for VOW3 show: ^[3]

P/E (2025e): ~7.1
Price-to-sales (P/S): ~0.14
Market cap (pref shares): ~€21.8bn

For context, Volkswagen Group as a whole generated €324.7bn revenue in 2024 and remains one of Europe’s largest industrial companies. ^[4]

In other words: the market is valuing VW at a single‑digit earnings multiple and a very low sales multiple, even after the recent rally.

The biggest VW Aktie news on 4 December 2025

1. EU reviews tariffs on China‑built VW EVs

The most market‑sensitive headline today comes from Brussels:

The European Commission has opened a review of the anti‑subsidy tariffs imposed on Volkswagen’s electric vehicles built in China, produced at its VW Anhui joint venture. ^[5]
Instead of a 20.7% punitive tariff, the EU is considering a “minimum price undertaking” – essentially a floor price agreement that could replace the tariff if it proves equally effective and enforceable. ^[6]

Why this matters for VW Aktie:

The current 20.7% tariff on Anhui‑built EVs (including Seat/Cupra Tavascan exported from China) has been described by VW management as a serious threat to these brands’ profitability in Europe. ^[7]
Moving to a minimum price system could restore visibility for VW’s China‑based EV exports, reduce tariff risk and support margins if the final deal is favourable.

Investors are reading the review as a potential easing of regulatory headwinds – one reason why VW shares are among the DAX winners today.

2. Saxony’s prime minister backs VW plants but warns of “trust damage”

On the domestic front, Volkswagen’s restructuring is causing anxiety among staff – but also drawing political backing.

In a new interview today, Saxony’s minister-president Michael Kretschmer expressed confidence in the future of VW’s plants in Zwickau‑Mosel (EV production) and Chemnitz (engines), saying he has “complete trust” that they will remain important sites for decades. ^[8]

At the same time, he acknowledged a “major loss of trust” among employees:

VW transformed Zwickau into its first fully electric factory, but demand for EVs has cooled, and the plant is expected to hand over models to other sites. ^[9]
Kretschmer notes that workers embraced electrification but no longer feel secure in the current crisis – highlighting the social and political risk behind VW’s cost‑cutting. ^[10]

For shareholders, this underlines a core tension: markets applaud the restructuring, but workforce unrest could complicate execution.

3. Dresden “Glass Factory” transformed instead of closed

A second important story around VW’s German footprint is the future of the iconic “Gläserne Manufaktur” (Glass Factory) in Dresden.

Volkswagen has agreed to turn the site into an innovation campus through a partnership with TU Dresden and the state of Saxony. The university will lease significant space, VW stays on site as a research and development partner – and, crucially, fixed costs fall sharply. ^[11]
The move comes alongside a massive group‑wide restructuring programme:
- Around 35,000 jobs in Germany are slated to disappear by 2030 according to a deal negotiated with unions, primarily via partial retirement and natural attrition. ^[12]

An analysis from Kapitalmarktexperten points out that the Dresden deal is less about PR and more about hard cost savings, helping VW remain competitive in a brutal EV price war – even as it fuels investor questions about how far the cuts must go. ^[13]

4. “Workforce rebellion” vs. Citigroup optimism

Another widely shared note today comes from Kapitalmarktexperten, summarising the mood inside VW and on the trading floor: ^[14]

Citigroup has put Volkswagen on its “Positive Catalyst Watch” list. Analyst Harald Hendrikse keeps a Buyrating, arguing VW may regain market share in China thanks to cheaper locally developed models and new EVs, while rivals BMW and Mercedes struggle more with overcapacity.
VW recently issued a €2.5bn green bond that was almost four times oversubscribed, signalling strong institutional demand for VW credit, despite recent downgrade risks. ^[15]
At the same time, an internal employee survey reportedly shows that only 16% of staff still believe the board balances profitability and job security – down from 40% in 2021. Workers see “massive loss of trust” as 35,000 jobs are set to go in Germany by 2030. ^[16]

From a stock perspective, the article highlights:

VW has cleared the psychological €100 level, now trading around €102–106, well above its 52‑week low near €80, but still below the year’s highs. ^[17]
Technical indicators like the RSI around 27–28 point to an oversold situation in recent days, supporting the ongoing rebound. ^[18]

The result: capital markets are increasingly constructive on VW, while internal morale is fragile – a classic restructuring dilemma for investors to monitor.

Strategy reset: software, EVs and new leadership

CARIAD: from “build everything” to “integrator of partners”

Volkswagen’s troubled software unit CARIAD remains one of the most important – and risky – pieces of the VW story.

According to Heise and other tech outlets: ^[19]

VW is abandoning the ambitious “develop everything in‑house” strategy that led to multi‑year delays for models like the all‑electric Porsche Macan and Audi Q6 e‑tron.
CARIAD will now act mainly as an integrator and coordinator for software platforms developed with partners such as Rivian (USA) and Xpeng (China), while retaining responsibility for key areas such as autonomous driving, infotainment and cloud services. ^[20]
The software reboot triggered a €400m restructuring charge and the cut of about 1,600 jobs, roughly 30% of CARIAD’s 5,900‑strong workforce, largely through redundancy programmes. ^[21]

Analysts see the shift to partnerships as strategically sensible, but warn that VW is becoming heavily dependent on Rivian and Xpeng, with more than $5bn of promised investments tied to these collaborations. ^[22]

For VW Aktie investors, CARIAD is a double‑edged catalyst:

If the new architecture stabilises and reaches scale, software could go from drag to differentiator.
If integration proves messy or partners run into trouble, VW’s already thin margins could face further pressure.

New power players in Wolfsburg

Volkswagen is also reshaping its top management to execute this reset.

Recent corporate and market commentary highlight: ^[23]

Ludwig Fazel has taken over as head of Group Strategy and the General Secretariat, reporting directly to CEO Oliver Blume. His mandate: less planning, more execution, especially around platform use, partnerships and cost savings.
At Volkswagen Financial Services (VWFS), Anthony Bandmann is set to become CEO on 1 January 2026, succeeding Christian Dahlheim, who moves to partner firm Pon Holdings. VWFS is a critical profit pool but is wrestling with volatile residual values in EV leasing and higher interest rates.
The management reshuffle is read as Blume tightening his grip on strategy and the financial “cash cow”, signalling urgency in facing Chinese competition and EV margin compression.

The market has so far reacted cautiously positive to these moves, with VW shares repeatedly testing and now breaking above the €100 mark. ^[24]

Financial picture: profits squeezed, orders improving

Volkswagen’s latest nine‑month 2025 results paint a mixed picture. From the company’s official October release and subsequent analyses: ^[25]

Sales revenue (9M 2025): €238.7bn, up 1% year-on-year.
Operating result: €5.4bn – a 58% drop vs. €12.8bn a year earlier.
Operating margin: down from 5.4% to 2.3%.
Net cash flow in Automotive: €1.8bn, 47% lower than the prior year, weighed down by tariffs and the Rivian stake increase.
Vehicle deliveries: 6.6m units, slightly higher than 2024, with growth in South America and Europe offsetting declines in China and North America.

Crucially:

The third quarter showed an operating loss of about €1.3bn, driven by roughly €4.7bn of special chargesrelated mainly to Porsche’s product strategy reset and goodwill impairments, plus heavy U.S. tariffs. ^[26]
VW now guides for 2025 sales revenue roughly in line with 2024, but only a 2–3% operating return on sales – far below the earlier 5.5–6.5% target flagged in March. ^[27]

Rating agencies have taken note: in March, Moody’s cut VW’s credit rating from A3 to Baa1, citing structural pressures, the China slowdown and weaker margins, albeit still leaving VW three notches above junk with a strong liquidity buffer. ^[28]

Bottom line: VW is growing slightly, but making much less money per car than a year ago, mostly due to:

EV ramp‑up at lower margins
Tariffs, especially in the United States
Porsche re‑alignment and one‑off charges
Heavy upfront spending on software and electrification

Dividend and valuation: high yield, lower payout

Despite the earnings squeeze, Volkswagen remains a high‑yield dividend stock by German standards – though the payout has been cut.

According to VW’s official AGM documents and dividend page: ^[29]

For the 2024 financial year (paid 2025), VW pays a dividend of
- €6.30 per ordinary share (VOW)
- €6.36 per preference share (VOW3)
This corresponds to a payout ratio of around 30% of earnings.

At today’s share price near €105–106, that translates to a dividend yield a little above 6% on the preference shares – still attractive, but lower than the €9.00 per share paid for 2023, which reflected stronger profits and one‑offs. ^[30]

Independent data sources broadly confirm a current yield in the 6–7% range for VOW3, depending on the exact share price used. ^[31]

Combined with a P/E around 7 and price/sales near 0.14, VW Aktie screens as cheap and high‑yielding, but investors clearly demand a discount for the structural and execution risks.

Analyst ratings and 12‑month VW Aktie forecasts

How do analysts see Volkswagen from here?

Consensus price targets

Wallstreet‑online shows an average analyst price target of about €114.55 for the preference share, implying roughly 8–9% upside from today’s levels. ^[32]
Forecast aggregators such as Chartmill and ValueInvesting.io report a similar average target around €114–115, with a range of roughly €93–131 over the next 12 months. ^[33]

Rating split

Recent broker opinions compiled by German financial portals include: ^[34]

RBC: Outperform, target reportedly around the mid‑€130s
Warburg Research: Buy, target near €150
Deutsche Bank Research: Buy, around €110
DZ Bank: Hold
Bernstein Research: Market‑Perform/Neutral, with a more cautious target near €88

Overall:

European auto specialists tend to be constructive, seeing VW as a cyclical turnaround with deep value if the cost cuts and EV strategy deliver.
A smaller group of analysts remains sceptical, arguing that China competition, tariff risk and governance complexity justify only a modest multiple and limited upside.

On most consensus dashboards, the stock currently sits roughly between “Hold” and “Moderate Buy”, with upside potential but no clear slam dunk. ^[35]

Technical picture: oversold bounce with key support around €99

Short‑term traders in VW Aktie are watching the charts closely.

Technical analysis from StockInvest and other services highlights: ^[36]

Buy signals from both short‑ and long‑term moving averages, with the short‑term line now above the long‑term line – a positive configuration.
VW has rallied roughly 15% from an October pivot low, helped by rising trading volumes.
Important support levels are seen around €99 and €94–95. A break below would likely trigger technical sell signals.
At the same time, a three‑month MACD sell signal still lingers, suggesting short‑term volatility and the risk of a pullback after the fast rebound.

Kapitalmarktexperten and others also stress the psychological importance of the €100 mark:

Sustaining prices above €100 would reinforce the bullish technical case.
Failure to hold could refocus traders on the 52‑week low around €80. ^[37]

Bull vs. bear case for VW Aktie in late 2025

The bullish argument

Supporters of VW share point to:

Deep value: low P/E, low P/S, and a 6%+ dividend yield even after cuts. ^[38]
Improving EV traction in Europe – VW reports battery‑electric order intake in Western Europe up 64%, with BEVs now about 22% of new orders. ^[39]
Radical restructuring: 35,000 domestic job cuts and plant re‑purposing (like Dresden) could structurally lower fixed costs if executed well. ^[40]
Software reboot via CARIAD and partnerships with Rivian and Xpeng could allow VW to leapfrog some in‑house development bottlenecks. ^[41]
Potential regulatory tailwind if EU tariffs on China‑built VW EVs are replaced with more predictable minimum price undertakings. ^[42]

The bearish argument

Sceptics counter with:

Margins under heavy pressure, with 9M 2025 operating margin just 2.3% and a loss in Q3 – leaving little room for further shocks. ^[43]
Execution risk in restructuring, especially with workforce trust so low and job cut plans this large. ^[44]
China exposure: intense price competition and political scrutiny (Xinjiang, tariffs) make VW’s single most important market structurally more difficult. ^[45]
Software dependence on partners: if Rivian or Xpeng stumble, VW’s product pipeline could be disrupted again. ^[46]
Governance complexity: a three‑pillar ownership structure (Porsche SE, State of Lower Saxony, Qatar fund) and strong union influence can slow radical strategic moves. ^[47]

In short, VW Aktie is priced as a turnaround with genuine upside – but little margin for comfort if the turnaround stalls.

What to watch next for VW shareholders

For investors following VW stock into 2026, key catalysts include:

Outcome of the EU tariff review for VW Anhui and any move to minimum price undertakings. ^[48]
Further details on cost‑cutting and job reductions, including negotiations with unions and regional governments (especially in Lower Saxony and Saxony). ^[49]
Progress at CARIAD and with Rivian/Xpeng platforms, including concrete launch dates for new software‑defined vehicles in Europe and China. ^[50]
Full‑year 2025 results and 2026 guidance, particularly whether VW can stabilise margins above 3% and rebuild free cash flow. ^[51]
Any further rating actions from Moody’s, S&P or Fitch as the restructuring plays out. ^[52]

Final note

This article summarises publicly available information as of 4 December 2025 and is intended for information and news purposes only. It is not investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell VW shares. Always consider your own risk tolerance and, if needed, consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.