Waaree Energies Share Price Today (8 December 2025): Emkay’s 48% Upside Call, Fresh Orders and Tariff Risks Explained

This article is for information and news purposes only and is not investment advice.

Waaree Energies share price today: where the stock stands

Waaree Energies Limited, India’s largest solar module manufacturer, is trading in a tight but nervy band after a volatile few months.

By late morning on 8 December 2025, the stock was around ₹2,894 on the NSE, up roughly 0.7% intraday, with combined NSE+BSE volume of about 0.85 million shares. Over the last five sessions, however, the stock has fallen close to 9–10%, and it is almost flat for calendar 2025. ^[1]

Key snapshot as of today:

Price: ~₹2,850–2,900
52-week range: about ₹1,863–₹3,865 ^[2]
Market capitalisation: roughly ₹82,000–83,000 crore ^[3]
Trailing P/E: around 30–35x, compared with a mid‑40s sector average ^[4]
Dividend yield: about 0.06–0.07% ^[5]

LiveMint’s dashboard shows eight analysts covering Waaree: one “strong buy”, three “buy”, with the rest split across hold/sell recommendations. Mutual funds held about 1.3% and foreign institutional investors about 6.3% of the company as of 30 September 2025. ^[6]

In other words, this is a large‑cap, high‑growth renewable stock that the market currently values at a premium to the market, but not at the extreme multiples seen in some peers.

The big catalyst today: Emkay Global’s 48% upside call

The main news trigger on 8 December 2025 is a fresh initiation of coverage by Emkay Global Financial Services, which started Waaree Energies with a ‘Buy’ rating and a March 2027 target price of ₹4,260 – implying roughly 48% upside from current levels. ^[7]

Highlights from Emkay’s research note (as summarised by Business Today): ^[8]

Valuation framework:
- Core photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing business valued at 14× March 2028 EV/EBITDA.
- Battery‑energy‑storage (BESS) business valued at 1× EV/invested capital (essentially: “we give you your money back” for storage until earnings kick in).
Growth forecasts (FY25–FY28):
- Revenue CAGR: ~36%
- EBITDA CAGR: ~48%
- Adjusted PAT CAGR: ~40%
Margin expectations:
- Integrated expansion into cells and wafers plus domestic‑content‑requirement (DCR) orders is expected to support 22–24% sustainable EBITDA margins, with integration adding 4–5 percentage points of margin over modules‑only operations.
Capacity roadmap Emkay is underwriting:
- Module capacity: from 18.7 GW/yr at the end of Q2 FY26 to 26.7 GW/yr by FY26-end.
- Cell capacity: from 5.4 GW to 15.4 GW by FY27-end.
- Wafer–ingot capacity: 10 GW by FY27-end.
- Total capex on these projects: about ₹11,800 crore, including 6 GW of integrated capacity under India’s Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme.
Sector view baked into the call:
- India’s installed solar capacity is expected to grow roughly 30 GW (AC) per year in FY26–FY28, consistent with a goal of around 300 GW solar by 2030.
- That translates into demand for >45 GW (DC) of modules and cells annually, once DC/AC “loading” is factored in.

Emkay also flags risks that matter a lot for investors: intensifying competition, rapid technology changes (TOPCon, HJT, perovskites, etc.), policy uncertainty and commodity‑price swings, especially for polysilicon and glass. ^[9]

Crucially, Emkay’s bullishness rests on integrated manufacturing and policy protection:

The brokerage expects profitability to migrate up the value chain from modules to cells and wafers, but believes integrated players like Waaree can keep book margins broadly stable.
It also assumes that India’s expanding Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) and DCR norms for cells and wafers will increasingly favour domestic, integrated setups – a club Waaree is racing to join at full scale. ^[10]

Recent order wins: 288 MW in the US, 140 MW in India

Short‑term share price action has been choppy, but operationally Waaree has kept announcing new orders.

288 MW US module order

In early December, Waaree said its US arm has bagged an order to supply 288 MW of solar PV modules to a leading US developer. The project is a one‑time supply contract, with deliveries spread across upcoming fiscal periods. ^[11]

PV Magazine and others note that Waaree now operates large‑scale manufacturing both in India and in the US, with total module capacity upwards of 15 GW in India and 2.6 GW in the US, alongside cell capacity of around 5.4 GW – figures that line up with earlier company disclosures and the Reuters coverage of its US expansion. ^[12]

140 MW domestic module order

In late November, Waaree disclosed a 140 MW domestic module order from an Indian renewable developer. The order is also a one‑off supply contract and is scheduled for execution over FY25–FY26. The company clarified that the customer is not a related party, a detail investors often look for in capital‑goods and EPC‑linked industries. ^[13]

Stacked on an already large book

These contracts sit on top of an already hefty backlog:

Kotak Securities, summarising company and exchange filings, pegs Waaree’s order book at roughly ₹49,000 crore with a project pipeline above 100 GW. ^[14]
Reuters, in a separate October interview with Waaree’s CEO, mentions an order book of about ₹47,000 crore (₹470 billion), ~60% of which is export‑driven, mainly to the United States. ^[15]

Put together, this suggests multi‑year revenue visibility well beyond what most manufacturing companies enjoy, particularly given that modules are typically sold into utility‑scale and C&I (commercial & industrial) projects with long gestation periods.

Fundamentals: earnings momentum, margins and balance sheet

Behind the stock’s volatile chart is a business that has scaled hard over the last five years.

Multi‑year growth blast

According to BSE filings and compiled data: ^[16]

Revenue has leapt from roughly ₹1,990 crore in FY21 to about ₹14,800–14,900 crore in FY25.
Profit after tax has exploded from about ₹48 crore to nearly ₹1,930 crore over the same period.
Installed module capacity ramped from 2 GW in FY21 to more than 13–15 GW by FY24–FY25, as Waaree absorbed IndoSolar’s assets and kept adding lines.

This isn’t gentle, utility‑style growth; it’s closer to a hyper‑scaling manufacturing story riding both domestic and export booms.

Quarterly momentum: Q1 and Q2 FY26

The Q1 FY26 (April–June 2025) numbers, which helped drive the August rally, were strong: ^[17]

Revenue: ₹4,597 crore, up about 31% YoY
EBITDA: ₹1,168–1,169 crore, up ~83% YoY
EBITDA margin: ~25.4% vs ~18.3% a year ago
PAT: ₹773 crore, up around 93% YoY
Module production: a record 2.3 GW for the quarter

By Q2 FY26 (quarter ended September 2025), Google Finance data shows: ^[18]

Revenue of about ₹6,066 crore, up nearly 70% YoY
Net profit of roughly ₹843 crore, up ~133% YoY
EBITDA of around ₹1,378 crore, up ~158% YoY

Even allowing for measurement differences across data sources, the direction of travel is clear: fast‑growing top line, faster‑growing operating profit, and expanding margins.

Valuation vs fundamentals

On today’s price, Waaree trades at: ^[19]

Around 30–35× trailing earnings, compared with a mid‑40s sector P/E
Price‑to‑book roughly in the 8–9× zone
A PEG ratio (P/E divided by growth) around 0.2 on LiveMint’s numbers, implying that – at least on simple PEG math – the growth being modelled still more than justifies current multiples

Debt levels remain modest relative to equity; LiveMint’s dashboard puts Waaree’s debt‑to‑equity ratio near 0.13, with leverage likely to rise as the company executes its large capex plan. ^[20]

In short: the stock is not cheap, but for a company posting high double‑digit revenue growth and triple‑digit profit growth, it is no longer trading at the extreme valuations some investors feared at listing.

Analyst sentiment beyond Emkay: Nomura, Nuvama and others

Emkay is not the only global brokerage that likes the story – though its ₹4,260 target is currently the most aggressive on the Street.

Nomura: Buy with 16% upside

In early September 2025, Nomura initiated coverage on Waaree Energies with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of ₹3,710, pointing to ~16% upside from then‑prevailing levels around ₹3,205. ^[21]

Key points from Nomura’s thesis: ^[22]

India’s power demand is expected to grow at about 6% CAGR through FY2030, driving a massive build‑out of renewable capacity.
Nomura expects India’s installed solar capacity to almost triple to ~293 GW by FY30, up from about 106 GW in FY25.
That implies module demand of roughly 58 GW in FY28, supported by PLI, ALMM and DCR policies that tilt demand toward domestic manufacturers.
For Waaree, Nomura models EBITDA CAGR of ~43% between FY25 and FY28, anchored by operational scaling and better unit economics.

Nuvama: Buy with 15% upside (August 2025)

Earlier, on 1 August 2025, Nuvama (formerly Edelweiss Securities) also recommended a ‘Buy’ on Waaree with a target of ₹3,646, representing about 15% upside over the then price of ₹3,145. ^[23]

The brokerage clubbed Waaree with other high‑growth industrial names, emphasising its strong order book, export share and position at the heart of India’s renewable roll‑out.

Consensus picture

Combining the LiveMint analyst breakdown with these broker notes gives a rough sense of where the Street sits today: ^[24]

The majority of rating initiations are “Buy”, but not without caveats on trade policy and competition.
Target prices range from the mid‑₹3,000s (Nomura, Nuvama) to ₹4,260 (Emkay), using FY28–FY29 earnings as the anchor.
Research houses are modelling mid‑30s to mid‑40s earnings growth over FY25–FY28, along with high‑teens to mid‑20s EBITDA margins.

All of this suggests positive but not euphoric institutional sentiment: Waaree is widely seen as a structural winner in Indian solar, but the stock is no longer a cheap “undiscovered” idea.

Macro backdrop: India’s solar build‑out and the oversupply puzzle

None of these forecasts make sense in isolation from India’s energy transition.

India has committed to 500 GW of non‑fossil fuel power capacity by 2030, with renewables expected to account for about half of electricity capacity. ^[25]
Various analyses – including government and industry estimates – place the 2030 solar capacity target around 280–300 GW, up from just over 100 GW today. ^[26]

The policy toolkit supporting this includes: PLI incentives for high‑efficiency modules, Basic Customs Duty (BCD) on imported modules and cells, the ALMM framework and domestic‑content requirements for public‑sector and some tendered projects. ^[27]

For manufacturers like Waaree, that sounds like a dream. But there’s a twist.

New warning: “Go slow” on module financing

On 7 December 2025, India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy had to clarify that it had not issued an advisory to stop funding clean energy projects, after a previous letter sparked worries across the solar supply chain. ^[28]

The ministry’s clarified position:

Lenders were asked to take a “calibrated and well‑informed” approach to financing additional standalone module capacity.
Reason: domestic module supply already exceeds near‑term demand, and exports to the US have slowed because of tariffs and tighter scrutiny of Chinese‑linked components.
At the same time, India’s module capacity could surge to ~200 GW and cell output to ~100 GW in the next few years, raising the risk of a glut if demand or exports disappoint. ^[29]

This is precisely the backdrop into which Emkay is projecting 30 GW/year of solar additions and 45 GW/year of module and cell demand. It’s a reminder that policy support and oversupply worries can coexist – and that stock prices will swing as the market tries to reconcile the two.

US tariff probe: the big risk on the horizon

The other cloud hanging over Waaree is trade tension with the United States, its largest export market.

CBP investigation into tariff evasion

In late September 2025, US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) opened a formal investigation into whether Waaree Energies and its US subsidiary had evaded anti‑dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese‑made solar cells and modules by mis‑declaring them as Indian‑made. ^[30]

Key points from Reuters and related filings: ^[31]

The probe followed a complaint by a coalition of US solar manufacturers.
As an interim precaution, CBP is requiring cash deposits on Waaree’s shipments while it investigates the origin and supply chain of the modules.
The announcement triggered an immediate slide in Waaree’s share price in late September, with the stock falling 4–8% in a single session and hitting intraday lows around the ₹3,200 mark.

Waaree has denied wrongdoing and says it is fully cooperating with US authorities.

Company response: doubling down on US manufacturing

In an October Reuters interview, Waaree’s CEO said the company’s US expansion plans remain intact despite the probe: ^[32]

Waaree currently has around 16.1 GW of module capacity in India and 2.6 GW in the US.
About 60% of its order book (roughly ₹47,000 crore) is export‑linked, and the US is its single largest market, accounting for more than half of total revenue.
The company is expanding its Houston plant from 1.6 GW to 3.2 GW, has acquired a 1 GW line in Arizona from Meyer Burger, and plans to add 10 GW each of solar cell and ingot‑wafer capacity by 2027.

If US regulators ultimately conclude that tariffs were dodged, Waaree could face retrospective duties, penalties or tighter import restrictions, which would hurt both margins and demand. If the probe is resolved favourably, the company’s bet on local US manufacturing could become a key competitive edge.

Either way, the investigation injects meaningful uncertainty into any long‑term cash‑flow model for the stock.

Market position: integrated giant in a crowded solar race

Multiple independent analyses agree that Waaree is not just big; it is the dominant player in Indian modules: ^[33]

Around 21% share of India’s domestic solar module market as of FY24.
Roughly 44% of India’s module exports.
A manufacturing footprint that runs from Gujarat and Noida to the United States.

Over FY21–FY25, the company’s installed module capacity jumped from 2 GW to 13–15 GW, with further expansion under way. ^[34]

On top of modules and cells, Waaree is gradually building a portfolio of adjacent businesses:

Battery‑energy‑storage systems (BESS)
Transformers and inverters
Electrolysers for green hydrogen
EPC (engineering, procurement and construction) and O&M (operations & maintenance) services ^[35]

This matters because, as Emkay notes, wallet share in large solar projects is shifting away from just modules toward integrated solutions that combine panels, inverters, storage and long‑term service contracts. ^[36]

Waaree Energies stock forecast: what the numbers and risks imply

Putting it all together:

Growth story:
- Multi‑year ramp in revenues and profits, with Q1/Q2 FY26 growth rates that would look more at home in a tech IPO than a manufacturing company. ^[37]
- A backlog of ~₹44,000–49,000 crore and a pipeline above 100 GW, anchored in both domestic and US markets. ^[38]
Valuation:
- Current P/E around 30–35x, which looks expensive in isolation but less so against 40%+ earnings growth forecasts and a pegged PEG ratio of about 0.2. ^[39]
Street view:
- Large brokerages (Nomura, Nuvama, Emkay) are broadly constructive, with price targets clustered in the ₹3,600–₹4,260 range and all modelling strong earnings CAGRs out to FY28. ^[40]
Macro tailwind:
- India’s push to 500 GW non‑fossil capacity by 2030, of which ~300 GW is expected to be solar, provides a massive domestic opportunity, reinforced by PLI, BCD, ALMM and DCR. ^[41]
Key risks:
- US CBP tariff‑evasion probe that could impact exports and margins. ^[42]
- Potential oversupply in modules as India’s manufacturing capacity races ahead of near‑term demand, prompting government caution to lenders. ^[43]
- Technology risk, as newer cell architectures could rapidly commoditise existing lines. ^[44]
- Policy risk on both sides of the world: Indian import duties and US trade barriers can support or hurt the business depending on how rules evolve. ^[45]

For investors looking at Waaree Energies today, the trade‑off is stark:

You are essentially paying up for a market leader in a sector central to India’s energy transition, with visible growth drivers and policy tailwinds.
In return, you are accepting significant regulatory, trade and cycle risk in a capital‑intensive industry where oversupply and tariff shocks can compress margins fast.

Anyone considering the stock needs to stress‑test their assumptions on US trade outcomes, domestic pricing, capex execution, and policy continuity – and to match that risk profile with their own time horizon and volatility tolerance.

References

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