BENTONVILLE, Arkansas, August 20, 2026, 05:50 CDT
- Options imply a 4.5% move after Walmart reports fiscal second-quarter results.
- Wall Street’s $0.74 EPS estimate sits at the top of company guidance.
- Annual guidance may matter more than a narrow quarterly beat.
Walmart Inc. NASDAQ:WMT faces a roughly 4.5% options-implied stock move when it reports fiscal second-quarter results before Thursday’s U.S. open. That is about $5.27 either way from a recent price near $117.
The more useful signal may come from guidance. Analysts expect adjusted earnings of $0.74 per share. That matches the top of Walmart’s own $0.72-to-$0.74 range, leaving little room for a merely in-line quarter.
Revenue estimates are firmer. Consensus sits near $186.8 billion, about 5% above last year. U.S. comparable sales are expected to rise 3.8%, the slowest pace in ten quarters.
| Fiscal Q2 checkpoint | Q2 FY26 actual | Q2 FY27 company guide | Q2 FY27 consensus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.68 | $0.72–$0.74 | $0.74 |
| Net sales growth | 4.8% | 4%–5% constant currency | About 5.3% |
| Walmart U.S. comparable sales, ex fuel | 4.6% | Not guided | About 3.8% |
That setup makes the full-year outlook decisive. Walmart maintained adjusted EPS guidance of $2.75 to $2.85 in May. The range was below the roughly $2.92 consensus cited after the first quarter. A lift toward Street forecasts could outweigh a modest quarterly miss.
Digital economics provide the clearest route to such a lift. Global e-commerce grew 26% in the first quarter. Walmart U.S. online sales also rose 26%, while membership-fee income increased 17.4%.
Chief Executive John Furner said in April that performance reflected “strong execution in our core business” and digital innovation. Investors now need proof that those faster-growing channels can offset price investment and fuel-related costs. Walmart annual report
| Options-implied scenario | WMT level | Move from $117 reference |
|---|---|---|
| Upper bound | About $122.27 | +4.5% |
| Reference price | About $117.00 | — |
| Lower bound | About $111.74 | −4.5% |
Expectations have eased since May. The shares remain about 14% below their May high, despite gaining roughly 5% this year. That pullback lowers the bar, but a premium valuation still rewards dependable execution.
The consumer read-through is unusually broad. Target Corp. NYSE:TGT reported 3.8% comparable-sales growth and raised its annual sales outlook on Wednesday. Walmart’s scale and grocery mix should reveal whether that strength extends beyond a single retailer.
| Analyst view | Buy or equivalent | Hold | Sell or strong sell | Average target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global poll | 36 | 6 | 1 | $137.98 |
| Recent pre-earnings sample | 10 of 11 | 1 of 11 | 0 of 11 | $140 |
The analyst skew is bullish. The larger poll’s $137.98 average target implies about 18% upside from $117. Yet one strong-sell rating and a wide $81-to-$155 target range show how sensitive valuation remains.
Premarket trading was slightly positive while U.S. index futures were nearly flat. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.67%, adding pressure to long-duration equity valuations.
Walmart scheduled the earnings materials for about 6 a.m. Central time. Furner and Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey will host the investor call at 7 a.m. Central.
Risks: A softer consumer, higher fuel costs or deeper price cuts could compress margins. A cautious annual outlook could also overwhelm an otherwise clean revenue beat.
The key threshold is simple. Investors need more than $0.74 EPS. They need evidence that Walmart’s digital mix can lift the full-year profit path.
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