Walmart Stock: What to Know Before the Market Opens on November 17, 2025

As U.S. traders get ready for the opening bell on Monday, November 17, 2025, Walmart (NYSE: WMT) sits at the center of three big storylines: a CEO shake‑up, a looming earnings report, and an ultra-competitive holiday shopping season.

Below is a fast but comprehensive pre‑market briefing on Walmart stock to help you understand what’s driving sentiment going into the new trading week.

Key Takeaways

Walmart stock closed at about $102.48 on Friday, up low double digits year‑to‑date and sitting several percent below its October all‑time high around $109.5. ^[1]
CEO Doug McMillon is retiring, with Walmart U.S. chief John Furner set to take over on February 1, 2026. The stock dipped 1–3% after the announcement as investors digested the leadership transition. ^[2]
Q3 FY26 earnings are due Thursday, November 20, before the market opens, with Wall Street expecting roughly $0.60 in EPS and about $175 billion in revenue, up around 4–5% year over year. ^[3]
The 2025 Black Friday campaign is already in motion, with “Event 1” running November 14–16 and a second event scheduled for November 25–30, plus Cyber Monday on December 1. ^[4]
Analysts remain broadly bullish: consensus ratings cluster around “Buy/Strong Buy,” with an average 12‑month price target near $113–114, implying roughly 10–11% upside from current levels. ^[5]
Valuation is rich: Walmart trades at about 38x trailing earnings and a forward P/E in the mid‑30s, a substantial premium to many brick‑and‑mortar peers. ^[6]

1. Where Walmart Stock Stands Heading Into November 17

Walmart shares finished the last session around $102.48, with Friday’s trading range roughly between $98.9 and $102.5 on strong volume north of 23 million shares. ^[7]

Some quick context:

Year‑to‑date performance: WMT is up about 13% in 2025, comfortably ahead of many traditional retailers. ^[8]
52‑week range: The stock has traded between roughly $79.8 (12‑month low) and $109.6 (high, set in mid‑October). ^[9]
Market cap & profile: At around $800+ billion in market value, Walmart is one of the largest consumer companies on earth, generating about $681 billion in FY2025 revenue across more than 10,750 stores and e‑commerce sites in 19 countries, serving about 270 million customers per week. ^[10]

From a pure price-action standpoint, Walmart is:

Well above its 2025 lows
Off its recent all‑time high
Trading near a short consolidation band around the $100–103 area in the days leading into November 17. ^[11]

That sets the stage for event-driven moves this week.

2. The Big Story: A Carefully Managed CEO Transition

The headline Walmart investors are still digesting before Monday’s open is the CEO succession.

What’s changing?

Doug McMillon, CEO since 2014 and a Walmart veteran since the 1980s, will retire from the CEO role at the end of January 2026. ^[12]
John Furner, currently the head of Walmart U.S. (and former Sam’s Club CEO), will step into the President & CEO role on February 1, 2026. ^[13]
McMillon will remain on the board through mid‑2026 and continue as an advisor through fiscal 2027, which signals continuity rather than a sudden strategic pivot. ^[14]

How did the stock react?

On the announcement, Walmart shares initially fell around 1–3%, sliding to roughly a two‑month low as investors processed the leadership change. ^[15]

Why this matters on November 17

Going into Monday:

Leadership stability vs. uncertainty:
- The market generally sees Furner as a logical insider choice with decades at Walmart and a strong track record leading the U.S. segment. ^[16]
- Still, CEO transitions at mega‑caps often bring a period of multiple compression or choppy trading as investors re‑price leadership risk.
McMillon’s legacy is very strong:
- Under his tenure, Walmart’s shareholder returns and strategic transformation (e‑commerce, automation, retail media, higher wages) have been among the best in global retail, with total shareholder returns well over 300–400% depending on the metric used. ^[17]

Bottom line for Monday: The CEO story is not just a Friday headline; it will likely remain a key talking point in pre‑market notes and on financial TV as traders line up positions ahead of earnings.

3. This Week’s Catalyst: Q3 FY26 Earnings on November 20

The single biggest scheduled catalyst for Walmart stock this week is fiscal Q3 2026 earnings, due Thursday, November 20, 2025, before the market opens, followed by an earnings call later that morning. ^[18]

Street expectations going into November 17

Various data providers and calendars are broadly aligned:

Consensus EPS: Around $0.60
Consensus revenue: Around $175–175.2 billion, indicating roughly 4–4.5% year‑over‑year growth. ^[19]

Research platforms and commentary also suggest earnings are expected to grow year over year, despite margin pressures and elevated investment spending. ^[20]

What Walmart guided for

After Q2 FY26, Walmart guided Q3 to: ^[21]

Net sales growth (constant currency): roughly 3.75–4.75%
Operating income growth: low‑ to mid‑single digits
Adjusted EPS: roughly $0.58–0.60

So current Street estimates are essentially in line with the company’s own guidance, which raises the bar: the stock may need either a top‑line beat, strong margin commentary, or another guidance raise to move higher.

How Walmart has been trading around recent earnings

Recent quarters haven’t been calm:

The last few earnings days have seen post‑report moves ranging from about –4% to –6% on the downside, and roughly +3% on the upside, according to historical reactions compiled by some data providers. ^[22]

That means volatility risk into Thursday is very real — something short‑term traders will be thinking about as they position themselves on Monday.

4. The Backdrop: Q2 Results Were Strong on Sales, Mixed on Profit

To understand what’s coming on Thursday, investors will still be referencing Q2 FY26 (reported in August):

Key highlights from that quarter: ^[23]

Revenue: About $177.4 billion, up ~4.8% year over year (around 5.6% in constant currency), beating expectations.
U.S. comparable sales: Up roughly 4.6%, driven by grocery and health & wellness.
Global e‑commerce: Up about 25% year over year, with strong contributions from store‑fulfilled pickup/delivery and marketplace.
Advertising & retail media: Global advertising revenue grew in the mid‑40% range, with Walmart’s U.S. ad business (Walmart Connect) up over 30%.
Profitability: Adjusted EPS came in around $0.68, below the roughly $0.73–0.74 consensus, as legal/reserve items and tariff pressures hit margins. The stock dropped sharply after the report, even as Walmart raised full‑year sales and earnings guidance.

For Monday, the Q2 story matters because it sets the narrative investors will bring into Q3:

Can Walmart keep accelerating e‑commerce, retail media and membership income?
Will tariff and cost headwinds continue to weigh on operating income?
Does the CEO transition change anything about capital allocation or margin priorities?

5. Holiday 2025: Black Friday Events Already Underway

By the time markets open on November 17, Walmart will be wrapping up Black Friday “Event 1”, which runs November 14–16 both online and in stores. A second Black Friday event runs November 25–30, followed by Cyber Monday on December 1, with Walmart+ members getting early online access for each wave. ^[24]

Other key holiday context:

Walmart is heavily promoting Walmart+, recently offering 50% off the annual membership and touting perks like early access to Black Friday deals and free delivery. ^[25]
External estimates from analytics firms and rating agencies suggest U.S. holiday sales in 2025 may grow around 4%, while online sales growth is expected to slow somewhat amid economic uncertainty and heavy discounting. ^[26]
Location and traffic data firms describe a “two‑tier consumer”: higher‑income shoppers still spending, while value‑focused consumers trade down and hunt aggressively for discounts — a pattern that typically benefits Walmart’s low‑price positioning. ^[27]

For Walmart stock on November 17:

Anecdotal read‑through from the first Black Friday event could show up in analyst notes and TV commentary — even if hard data aren’t yet available.
Management is likely to provide more holiday color on Thursday’s call, making this week a critical moment for how the Street frames Walmart’s 2025 holiday performance.

6. How Wall Street Sees Walmart Right Now

Despite the CEO transition and margin noise, analyst sentiment heading into November 17 remains broadly positive.

Ratings and price targets

Across major coverage:

Walmart carries a “Buy” to “Strong Buy” consensus, with dozens of analysts in coverage. ^[28]
The average 12‑month price target sits around $112–113, implying about 10–11% upside from the current ~$102 area. ^[29]
The highest targets run up to around $129, while the lowest are in the low‑$90s, reflecting some disagreement on valuation but not on Walmart’s core strength. ^[30]

Recent moves:

Some firms have nudged targets higher ahead of Q3, including a TD Cowen increase to $120 on expectations of a third‑quarter beat. ^[31]
MarketBeat and other trackers note multiple “Buy” reiterations with targets in the $115 range in recent weeks. ^[32]

Valuation snapshot

Heading into Monday:

Trailing P/E: Roughly 38x earnings. ^[33]
Forward P/E: Around the mid‑30s, depending on which earnings estimate set you use. ^[34]
Several comparative analyses show Walmart trading at a substantial premium to the average for the supermarket/defensive retail group on both P/E and PEG ratios. ^[35]

The takeaway: sentiment is bullish but not cheap. The market is paying up for Walmart’s scale, defensiveness, and omni‑channel strategy — which raises the stakes for Thursday’s earnings.

7. Institutional Flows & Positioning

Filings and recent notes hint at incremental position‑tweaking rather than wholesale shifts:

Some funds, such as Y.D. More Investments Ltd, have trimmed positions modestly (around 9% of their holding in one recent quarter). ^[36]
Another report shows a separate manager reducing its position while highlighting Walmart’s 12‑month high near $109.6, and valuation metrics like a P/E around 38.5 and beta below 0.7, underscoring Walmart’s role as a relatively lower‑volatility mega‑cap. ^[37]

This doesn’t signal a stampede out of the name; rather, it suggests normal portfolio rebalancing in a stock that has already had a solid two‑year run.

8. Key Risks and Watchpoints for November 17 and Beyond

Before Monday’s open, here are the main risk factors and data points traders and investors are watching:

Execution risk under new leadership
- Even with a smooth insider transition, investors will be listening closely on Thursday’s call for any hints of strategic shifts under John Furner. Tone and messaging this week could affect how comfortable the market feels with the hand‑off. ^[38]
Margin pressure from tariffs and investments
- Q2 showed that tariff costs, legal items, and heavy investment in automation and AI‑enabled supply chains can weigh on earnings even when revenue is strong. Any sign those pressures are worsening could overshadow solid sales numbers. ^[39]
Holiday demand quality, not just quantity
- With consumers more promotion‑sensitive and using “buy now, pay later” more frequently, investors will want to know whether Walmart is protecting margins or buying share with heavy discounting. ^[40]
Valuation downside if expectations slip
- At a mid‑30s forward P/E, Walmart doesn’t have much room for disappointment. A guidance cut or cautious holiday outlook could prompt multiple compression, not just an EPS‑based move. ^[41]
Post‑earnings volatility history
- Recent earnings days have produced sizable moves, often to the downside when margins or guidance came in under optimistic expectations. That history will be front of mind for short‑term traders building positions on November 17. ^[42]

9. How to Frame Walmart Stock Before the Opening Bell

Putting it all together for Monday, November 17, 2025:

Fundamentals:
- Walmart is entering Q3 earnings with solid top‑line momentum, fast‑growing e‑commerce and ad businesses, and a strong position with both budget‑conscious and higher‑income shoppers. ^[43]
Narrative:
- The CEO transition adds a new storyline, but because the successor is a long‑time insider, the Street largely expects continuity rather than disruption. ^[44]
Near‑term catalysts:
- Q3 earnings on Thursday and ongoing Black Friday events could both move the stock and prompt estimate revisions. ^[45]
Valuation & sentiment:
- Consensus is positive with upside baked into price targets, but the premium valuation means Walmart needs to keep delivering on growth, margins, and capital allocation to justify multiple expansion.

For traders, Monday may be about position-sizing and risk control ahead of a potentially volatile earnings print; for longer‑term investors, it’s another checkpoint in Walmart’s evolution into a tech‑enabled, service‑rich retail platformrather than “just” a brick‑and‑mortar discounter.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a guarantee of future performance. Always do your own research or consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Walmart shares jump more than 4% today after announcing partnership with OpenAI