As of December 1, 2025, Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is trading around $111 per share, valuing the company at roughly $880–$885 billion and putting it among the ~15 most valuable companies in the world. [1]
The stock has just logged what one analyst called its “best day of the year,” rides near record highs after Black Friday, and now sits at the center of several major storylines:
- A record‑setting move from the NYSE to Nasdaq on December 9
- A CEO transition as Doug McMillon prepares to hand the reins to John Furner in early 2026 [2]
- AI and automation investments (including a partnership with OpenAI and Walmart’s own “Sparky” assistant) reshaping the business [3]
- Strong Q3 FY26 earnings and a raised outlook heading into the 2025 holiday season [4]
Below is a detailed, Google News–ready look at the latest news, forecasts, and analysis around Walmart stock as of December 1, 2025.
Key takeaways for Walmart (WMT) investors
- Stock near record highs: WMT trades around $111 and is up roughly 20%+ in 2025, outpacing the broader market. [5]
- Q3 beats and higher guidance: Q3 FY26 revenue grew about 5.8% year over year to ~$179.5B, with e‑commerce up in the high 20s and adjusted operating income growing faster than sales. Management raised full‑year sales and earnings forecasts. [6]
- Nasdaq listing coming Dec. 9: Walmart is leaving the NYSE after more than 50 years and relisting on the Nasdaq Global Select Market, in what Reuters calls the largest exchange transfer ever by market value. [7]
- Leadership transition in 2026: CEO Doug McMillon will retire on January 31, 2026; Walmart U.S. chief John Furner becomes CEO on February 1. [8]
- Wall Street outlook: Most analysts rate WMT a Buy/Strong Buy with average 12‑month targets around $118–$121, implying mid‑single‑ to high‑single‑digit upside from current levels. Some valuation models, however, view the stock as significantly overvalued. [9]
- Valuation rich, dividend modest: Walmart trades around 38–40× earnings with a 0.8–0.9% dividend yield, placing it at a rich premium to most retail and consumer‑staples peers. [10]
Walmart stock today: price, performance and recent momentum
Intraday on December 1, 2025, Walmart shares change hands near $111, just shy of a 52‑week high around $110–$111 and slightly below the record level hit on Black Friday. [11]
Recent performance highlights:
- Year‑to‑date: WMT is up about 22% in 2025, versus roughly 16% for the S&P 500, according to coverage from 24/7 Wall St. [12]
- 1‑year and 3‑year: Simply Wall St estimates a 1‑year total shareholder return of ~18% and ~108% over three years, underscoring long‑term momentum. [13]
- Market cap: Multiple data providers peg Walmart’s market capitalization around $870–$885 billion in late November 2025, making it one of the top ~15 companies globally by value. [14]
A widely read piece titled “Walmart’s Best Day of the Year” notes that investors’ long‑running concerns about e‑commerce competitors have eased as Walmart’s tech and online capabilities have caught up, and Black Friday traffic has reinforced confidence in both consumer demand and Walmart’s dominance. [15]
Earnings and outlook: what Q3 FY26 tells us
Walmart’s latest reported quarter (fiscal Q3 2026, quarter ended October 31, 2025) was central to the recent rally.
Headline numbers
According to Walmart’s earnings release and subsequent coverage: [16]
- Revenue: ~$179.5 billion, up 5.8% year over year (about 6.0% in constant currency).
- U.S. comparable sales: +4.5% (ex‑fuel), ahead of expectations.
- Global e‑commerce sales: up roughly 27–28%, with U.S. e‑commerce up about the same.
- Adjusted operating income: up around 8%, growing faster than sales.
- Adjusted EPS: up from roughly $0.58 to $0.62 year over year. [17]
Walmart pointed to broad‑based strength:
- Grocery and everyday essentials remain core traffic drivers.
- Discretionary categories like apparel and home goods have improved, especially among higher‑income shoppers. [18]
- The advertising business (“Walmart Connect”) and membership income delivered double‑digit growth; one analysis cites global ad sales up over 50% and membership income up in the mid‑teens. [19]
Raised FY26 guidance
On November 20, Walmart raised its fiscal 2026 outlook: [20]
- Net sales growth: now expected at 4.8–5.1%, vs. a prior range around the mid‑single digits.
- Adjusted operating income: also guided to roughly 4.8–5.5% growth.
- Adjusted EPS:$2.58–$2.63.
This guidance bakes in an expectation of a solid holiday season, continued e‑commerce expansion, and ongoing market‑share gains — particularly among higher‑income consumers.
Holiday 2025: AI, deals and a split consumer
The 2025 holiday season is a critical near‑term catalyst for Walmart stock.
Black Friday, Cyber Monday and early signs
- Data from multiple sources indicates strong Black Friday traffic for Walmart and Target, despite a longer promotions window. [21]
- Walmart’s stock hit a record high on Black Friday, according to Investor’s Business Daily, reinforcing bullish sentiment as the season kicked off. [22]
- For Cyber Monday, Adobe and other trackers expect U.S. online spending around $14.2 billion, up about 6% year over year, with AI‑powered deals and recommendation engines (including Walmart’s) helping drive conversion. [23]
Walmart’s own promotions began in mid‑November and rolled out in phases through December 1, with heavy emphasis on online exclusives and app‑only deals, plus AI‑curated gift ideas. [24]
AI‑powered shopping: Sparky and ChatGPT
Walmart is leaning into AI to differentiate its holiday experience: [25]
- Sparky, an AI shopping assistant launched in June, lives inside the Walmart app and helps customers find items, read reviews, and get personalized suggestions.
- For the holidays, Walmart added party‑planning tools, 3D showrooms and audio product descriptions to enhance discovery. [26]
- In October, Walmart and Sam’s Club announced a partnership with OpenAI so customers can shop via ChatGPT using Instant Checkout, turning conversational queries into completed orders. [27]
This AI push is one reason Walmart says the Nasdaq’s tech‑centric brand fits its “people‑led, tech‑powered” positioning.
Consumer split: strength at the top, pressure at the bottom
Recent commentary from executives and analysts highlights a bifurcated consumer: [28]
- Upper‑ and middle‑income shoppers remain resilient and are increasingly choosing Walmart for value, convenience and fast delivery.
- Lower‑income households, a traditional Walmart core, are under more pressure from inflation and higher borrowing costs and are trading down to essentials and private‑label products.
Walmart is responding with:
- Aggressive promotions and rollbacks,
- Expansion of private‑label brands like Great Value,
- And deeper integration of digital and physical (omnichannel) with same‑day pickup and delivery.
Analysts generally expect Walmart to emerge from the season with further market‑share gains, even if unit volumes in some discretionary categories remain constrained.
Nasdaq move: the biggest exchange transfer ever
One of the biggest headlines for December: Walmart is leaving the NYSE and moving its listing to Nasdaq.
Key details: [29]
- Trading on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under ticker “WMT” is expected to begin December 9, 2025.
- Walmart is also moving multiple bond listings.
- Reuters and Nasdaq describe this as the largest exchange transfer ever by market value, given Walmart’s ~$880B market cap.
- Management frames the move as aligning Walmart with a tech‑heavy peer group and spotlighting its transformation into a digital, AI‑enabled retailer.
Investopedia notes that being on Nasdaq could eventually pave the way for Walmart’s inclusion in the Nasdaq‑100 index, which may attract additional flows from index funds and ETFs tracking that benchmark, though it may be too late for the upcoming reconstitution. [30]
A Financial Times analysis goes further, arguing that the move caps Walmart’s reinvention as a “growth stock”, thanks to years of heavy investment in automation, e‑commerce and higher wages that have improved both operations and brand perception. [31]
Leadership transition: McMillon out, Furner in
On November 14, 2025, Walmart announced that CEO Doug McMillon will retire on January 31, 2026, after more than a decade at the helm. [32]
- John Furner, currently president and CEO of Walmart U.S., will become President and CEO of Walmart Inc. on February 1, 2026. [33]
- McMillon will remain on the board through the 2026 annual shareholders meeting to support the transition. [34]
Reuters and other outlets credit McMillon with transforming Walmart into a technology‑driven omnichannel retailer whose shares have consistently outperformed the market. [35]
Market reaction to the news was muted — shares were roughly flat to slightly down on the day — suggesting investors view Furner, a 30‑year company veteran, as a continuity candidate likely to maintain the current strategy rather than pivot sharply. [36]
For shareholders, the leadership change is a medium‑term storyline:
- It removes succession uncertainty,
- But also puts focus on Furner’s ability to execute the next leg of Walmart’s tech and margin‑expansion strategy.
What analysts and models say about Walmart’s valuation
Wall Street price targets
Across major platforms, analyst sentiment is broadly bullish:
- MarketBeat: “Moderate Buy,” with 31 Buy and 1 Hold ratings and an average target around $118.5. [37]
- StockAnalysis: 30 analysts, consensus “Strong Buy”, average target about $118.1 (roughly $91–$130 range). [38]
- Investing.com: ~39 analysts, “Strong Buy”, average target close to $118.4. [39]
- MarketWatch: 42 analysts, average target around $120.5, with most ratings in the “Buy” camp. [40]
Taken together, that cluster suggests a 12‑month consensus target near $119–$121, or about 7% upside from ~$111 today — with bullish outliers up near $130 and a small minority of much lower fair‑value estimates.
Fundamental and fair‑value models
On the more quantitative side:
- Simply Wall St forecasts Walmart’s revenue climbing to roughly $790 billion and earnings to about $27.4 billion by 2028, implying a ~4.5% annual revenue growth rate. Their discounted‑cash‑flow–style fair value comes in around $118–$119 per share, roughly 7% above the current price, with community narratives ranging from the low $90s to that upper teens level. [41]
- A separate Simply Wall St narrative recently pegged a fair value around $113.8, about 11% above the then‑recent close, while noting that Walmart’s P/E near 38× is materially above both its peer group (~25×) and wider industry (~21×). [42]
- Morningstar, in contrast, assigns Walmart a 1‑star rating and a fair value near $60 per share, calling the stock “significantly overvalued” despite acknowledging its wide economic moat. [43]
In other words, Wall Street’s sell‑side is optimistic, while some valuation‑driven models see little margin of safety at current prices.
Valuation snapshot: expensive for a retailer
Several metrics underscore how “premium” the stock has become:
- Trailing P/E: roughly 38–41× recent earnings, depending on the source and exact date. [44]
- Price‑to‑sales: around 1.2×. [45]
- Dividend yield: about 0.8–0.9%, based on an annual dividend of $0.94 per share, with a payout ratio in the low‑30% range. [46]
- Earnings yield: roughly 2.5–2.6%, noticeably below many risk‑free bond yields, which means the stock is priced as a defensive growth asset rather than a cheap income play. [47]
Walmart is also a Dividend King, having raised its dividend annually for over 50 consecutive years, which supports demand from long‑term, income‑oriented investors despite the low current yield. [48]
Latest analyses from December 1, 2025
Several fresh pieces published around December 1, 2025 offer a timely cross‑section of sentiment:
- “Walmart’s Best Day of the Year” (24/7 Wall St / Yahoo Finance)
Emphasizes that Walmart’s 22% YTD gain has finally reversed years of underperformance versus the S&P 500, arguing that strong Black Friday results and AI‑driven holiday strategies could keep the rally going. [49] - “Why Walmart Could Be a Top Value Pick Heading Into 2026” (Motley Fool)
Highlights Walmart’s low‑price positioning, e‑commerce growth (27% in Q3), booming advertising business, and its new OpenAI partnership and automation investments. The author calls Walmart a compelling core holding for 2026, stressing its Dividend King status and global scale. [50] - “Walmart Will Make Stock Market History on Dec. 9 — and It Can Top This Feat in 2026” (Motley Fool)
Focuses on the record‑setting Nasdaq move and argues that if the stock rises another mid‑teens percentage, Walmart could join the small club of companies to reach a trillion‑dollar market cap. [51] - “How Walmart’s Upgraded Sales Outlook and Strong Quarter May Impact WMT Investors” (Simply Wall St)
Frames Walmart’s story around omni‑channel growth, expanding high‑margin streams (advertising, marketplace, memberships) and margin pressures from logistics and labor. It pegs fair value near $118.4, with upside of about 7% from current levels and flags rising costs as the main risk. [52]
Collectively, these analyses see Walmart as operationally strong and strategically well‑positioned, while differing on how much of that is already “priced in.”
The bull case: why investors like Walmart here
Supporters of WMT typically point to:
- Durable competitive moat
- Walmart remains the world’s largest retailer by revenue, with over 10,000 stores globally and ~4,600 in the U.S., plus powerful scale in purchasing and logistics. [53]
- Omnichannel and e‑commerce strength
- High‑20% e‑commerce growth plus robust store traffic is a powerful mix. Walmart can ship from stores, automate fulfillment centers, and offer curbside pickup and same‑day delivery, making it a strong alternative to Amazon for many households. [54]
- High‑margin growth engines
- Advertising (Walmart Connect, plus Vizio integration), third‑party marketplace, and Walmart+ memberships are all higher‑margin businesses that are slowly lifting overall profitability. [55]
- AI and automation tailwinds
- From Sparky and ChatGPT Instant Checkout on the front end to automated distribution centers and robotics (including partnerships with Symbotic) on the back end, Walmart is using AI to improve both customer experience and cost efficiency. [56]
- Resilience across cycles
- In a world of mixed economic signals, Walmart tends to benefit as consumers trade down, particularly when mid‑ and high‑income shoppers seek value. That defensive profile is part of why investors are willing to pay a premium multiple. [57]
For long‑term, quality‑focused investors, Walmart looks like a growth‑tilted defensive compounder anchored by a wide moat and a tech‑driven strategy.
The bear case: what could go wrong from here
Skeptics and more valuation‑sensitive investors highlight several risks:
- Rich valuation and limited margin of safety
- Trading near 38–40× earnings, Walmart is priced more like a fast‑growing tech company than a mature retailer. A growth slowdown or market rotation away from “quality at any price” could lead to multiple compression, even if fundamentals remain solid. [58]
- Margin pressures from wages and logistics
- Rising labor costs, transportation expenses, and investment in automation keep a lid on margins. Simply Wall St and others stress that Walmart must execute flawlessly on efficiency gains to justify current valuations. [59]
- Mixed picture for lower‑income consumers
- While wealthier shoppers are resilient, inflation and high rates are still pressuring lower‑income households — a key Walmart demographic. A deeper slowdown at the low end could weigh on discretionary categories and mix. [60]
- Execution risk around AI and tech
- The AI arms race is expensive and fast‑moving. Walmart has to keep up with Amazon and other tech leaders while avoiding missteps that could lead to cost overruns or customer‑experience issues. [61]
- Leadership transition uncertainty
- Even with an internal successor, CEO transitions at companies of Walmart’s size can introduce strategy drift or cultural shifts. Investors will be watching Furner’s early moves closely. [62]
So is Walmart stock a buy right now?
From an information standpoint, here’s the bottom line as of December 1, 2025:
- Business performance: Strong. Q3 results were solid across revenue, comps, and e‑commerce, and guidance was raised heading into the holidays. [63]
- Strategic story: Compelling. Walmart is successfully repositioning itself as a tech‑enabled, AI‑powered retail platform, a narrative reinforced by the Nasdaq move and AI partnerships. [64]
- Leadership and governance: In transition, but orderly, with an experienced internal successor taking over in early 2026. [65]
- Valuation: Demanding. Most analyst targets imply modest, high‑single‑digit upside, while some fundamental models warn of substantial overvaluation if growth or margins disappoint. [66]
Practically, that tends to translate into:
- Growth‑oriented or long‑term quality investors may see Walmart as an attractive core holding, accepting a high multiple in exchange for resilience, structural growth drivers (ads, marketplace, AI), and a long dividend track record.
- Strict value or income investors might prefer to wait for a pullback or higher yield before adding exposure, given the low earnings yield and rich P/E.
As always, whether WMT is a buy today depends on your time horizon, risk tolerance, and portfolio mix. The stock is priced for continued execution — not perfection, but certainly above average performance.
This article is for information and education only and is not personalized investment advice. Consider speaking with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
References
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