Walmart Inc. stock (WMT) is entering the final stretch of 2025 with investors debating a familiar question: is the world’s largest retailer still a defensive “must-own” compounder—or has the rally pushed valuation to a point where expectations are getting harder to beat?
On Monday, December 22, 2025, WMT shares were trading around $112.98, down about 1.2% on the session, after closing the prior trading day near the mid-$114 level.
Even with the pullback, Walmart remains one of the market’s most watched consumer bellwethers heading into a holiday-shortened week—especially after a headline-heavy month that included analyst target moves, a historic exchange transfer to Nasdaq, and a steady drumbeat of updates tied to Walmart’s technology and supply chain strategy.
Why Walmart stock is in focus on Dec. 22, 2025
Three storylines are dominating the WMT conversation today:
- Fresh analyst activity (including Jefferies)
A Reuters alert distributed via brokerage-news feeds indicates Jefferies raised its Walmart price target to $132 from $125 (rating: Buy). [1]
Whether investors treat that as a near-term catalyst or simply another incremental endorsement, it reinforces the broader theme: Street models continue to inch upward, but the stock is also priced for execution. - The post-NYSE, now-Nasdaq era
Walmart began trading on the Nasdaq Global Select Market on Dec. 9, 2025, keeping the same ticker (WMT)—a high-profile listing switch that the company framed as aligned with a “tech-forward” identity. [2]
The switch has also sparked recurring speculation about future index dynamics and passive fund flows. - The near-term “what’s next” calendar
Walmart has an officially scheduled earnings milestone ahead: FY2026 Q4 earnings release on Feb. 19, 2026 (7:00 a.m. Central), with materials posted earlier that morning and a live conference call afterward. [3]
For investors, that earnings date matters because Walmart’s stock is currently trading at a premium multiple versus many traditional retailers—meaning even small shifts in guidance, margins, or market-share commentary can move the stock.
Analyst targets are rising, but the valuation debate is getting louder
Walmart’s bull case has been simple in 2025: consistent execution, market-share gains, and a widening ecosystem (delivery, membership, marketplace, and advertising) that can expand margins over time.
That optimism shows up clearly in Wall Street target revisions:
- Truist raised its price target to $127 (from $119) while keeping a Hold rating, explicitly calling out Walmart’s strength across segments but also acknowledging the stock’s premium valuation. [4]
- TD Cowen lifted its target to $136 (from $125) and reiterated Buy, reflecting confidence in Walmart’s footprint and delivery “moat.” [5]
- MarketBeat’s tracked analyst set shows a 12‑month average target around $120.54, with targets ranging from $91 to $135 (a spread that underscores the disagreement on how much growth is already priced in). [6]
At the same time, the bear case has become more prominent precisely because the business has been strong. The argument: the stock’s valuation now leaves less room for surprises.
A widely circulated caution this morning came from a Trefis/Forbes analysis that outlines a downside scenario suggesting Walmart could fall materially if macro conditions or execution disappoint—framing the risk as a combination of high valuation and operating sensitivity. [7]
What this means for WMT shareholders: the debate isn’t about whether Walmart is “good.” It’s about whether Walmart can keep compounding fast enough to justify a premium multiple while navigating tariffs, competitive pricing, and regulatory noise.
The fundamentals that bulls keep pointing to
Even skeptics generally concede Walmart’s operating momentum has been notable—especially relative to peers. In its most recent quarterly cycle, Walmart highlighted strong consumer traction across income cohorts and emphasized technology-driven efficiency.
Reuters reported that Walmart raised its full-year outlook in November and pointed to several performance indicators, including:
- U.S. comparable sales up 4.5% (above estimates cited in the report),
- revenue of $179.5 billion in the quarter,
- and online sales growth (reported as ~28% in that coverage). [8]
Just as importantly for the long-term margin narrative, that same report said Walmart is pushing deeper into automation and AI, including claims that over 40% of new code was AI-generated or AI-assisted, and over 60% of freight is moving through automated facilities. [9]
This is why, even after a powerful run, a chunk of the market still treats Walmart less like a classic low-growth retailer and more like a scaled omnichannel platform.
Nasdaq listing switch: bullish signal, but Nasdaq-100 timing is the catch
Walmart’s decision to move from NYSE to Nasdaq was one of the most talked-about corporate actions in late 2025, with coverage emphasizing the symbolism and the strategic intent.
- Nasdaq Trader notices and company communications confirmed Walmart’s Nasdaq debut on Dec. 9, 2025, under the same ticker symbol. [10]
- Reuters separately framed the move as a meaningful “win” for Nasdaq in the ongoing listings competition. [11]
However, the index inclusion storyline is more nuanced than the headlines suggest.
A Reuters report on the Nasdaq-100 annual reshuffle noted that because Walmart’s transfer happened after the key reference date for the 2025 review, Walmart would not be considered for the December 2025 Nasdaq‑100 rebalancing. [12]
Investor takeaway: the Nasdaq switch may matter over time (especially if it broadens institutional demand or aligns Walmart with more tech-oriented investor narratives), but any Nasdaq-100 “passive inflow” thesis is likely a 2026+ discussion rather than an immediate 2025 event, based on the reported timing constraints. [13]
CEO transition: another catalyst investors are modeling for 2026
Leadership changes at Walmart are rare—and markets notice.
Reuters profiled incoming CEO John Furner, who is set to take over in February 2026, succeeding Doug McMillon. [14]
Financial Times reporting also emphasized the scale of the transition and placed it in the context of Walmart’s e-commerce and automation push during McMillon’s tenure. [15]
For WMT stock, CEO transitions can cut both ways:
- Bullish framing: continuity—Furner is a long-time Walmart operator, which suggests strategy persistence rather than disruption. [16]
- Bearish framing: transitions create uncertainty around capital allocation priorities, margin tolerance (especially in price investment), and the pace of tech spending.
Either way, the CEO handoff is one more reason investors are paying close attention to the Feb. 19 earnings event and forward commentary.
The “real economy” signals: supply chain investment and private-label essentials
One underappreciated reason Walmart is viewed as durable in late-cycle environments is that it can press advantages in essentials and scale-driven supply chain moves.
A clear recent example: Walmart opened its second owned-and-operated milk processing facility in Valdosta, Georgia, a $350 million investment intended to expand capacity and support private-label milk supply across the Southeast, creating 400+ jobs. [17]
Reuters noted Walmart also plans a third milk processing plant in Texas by 2026, fitting the broader theme of vertical integration in food categories where reliability and cost control matter. [18]
For the stock narrative, this kind of investment supports the idea that Walmart can protect price leadership while still investing for growth—though it also raises the bar on execution and return on invested capital.
Legal and regulatory headlines investors are watching
Walmart’s scale means it regularly faces legal and regulatory exposure. Several late-2025 headlines remain relevant for sentiment (even if they’re not always direct earnings drivers).
Recent examples include:
- FDA warning letters: Reuters reported the FDA warned Walmart and other retailers about selling recalled ByHeart infant formula, with the agency focused on ensuring recalled product was removed after a botulism-related outbreak report. [19]
- Price-fixing lawsuit: Reuters covered a proposed class action alleging PepsiCo and Walmart engaged in price-fixing behavior tied to soft drinks (both companies have denied wrongdoing in the report). [20]
- Payments/swipe-fee litigation: Reuters also reported on merchants (including Walmart) objecting to a proposed Visa/Mastercard settlement framework tied to swipe fees. [21]
These issues can matter to investors less because of immediate dollar impact and more because they feed the ongoing debate about regulatory pressure on mega-retailers and payment ecosystems.
Insider and shareholder activity: Walton-related filings in the spotlight
Another thread showing up in market chatter is insider/shareholder activity linked to Walmart’s largest shareholders.
A Reuters filing alert distributed via TradingView reported that Walton Family Holdings Trust filed a Form 4 disclosing a transaction involving 872,000 shares (~$99.6 million). [22]
Walmart’s investor relations SEC filings portal also lists Form 4 documents tied to Walton-related entities. [23]
Important context: Walton family entities remain massive long-term holders, and periodic selling or distributions can occur for routine trust, diversification, or estate-planning reasons—so investors generally watch these filings as signal, not proof of a changing long-term view.
What Walmart’s official outlook implies for 2026 modeling
Looking beyond the headlines, the stock ultimately trades on expected growth and profitability.
Reuters reported Walmart’s updated full-year outlook as:
- Net sales growth: 4.8% to 5.1%
- Adjusted EPS: $2.58 to $2.63 [24]
Nasdaq’s earnings page shows a consensus EPS forecast around 2.63 for the fiscal year ending January 2026, reinforcing the idea that the market is aligning near the high end of Walmart’s guidance range. [25]
That setup is crucial: when consensus clusters near the top of guidance, Walmart may need either upside operating leverage (margin expansion) or accelerating ecosystem revenues (advertising, marketplace, membership) to keep “beating” expectations in a way that supports a premium valuation.
The key catalysts to watch next for WMT stock
Here’s what investors are likely to focus on between now and mid-February:
- Holiday season read-through: Updates on grocery mix, general merchandise trends, and delivery economics (especially as competitors lean into promotions).
- Any further analyst revisions: Target changes often follow channel checks and holiday data. Today’s Jefferies target bump is a reminder that the Street is still actively adjusting models. [26]
- Nasdaq era mechanics: How WMT trades as a Nasdaq mega-cap—and how index providers and passive flows evolve after the missed 2025 Nasdaq‑100 reshuffle window. [27]
- FY2026 Q4 earnings on Feb. 19, 2026: This is the next “official” moment where Walmart can reset expectations, clarify the margin trajectory, and comment on 2026 priorities ahead of the CEO transition. [28]
Bottom line for Walmart stock on Dec. 22, 2025
Walmart stock remains in a classic late-year tug-of-war:
- The bull case rests on durable consumer relevance, omnichannel scale, supply chain automation, and an expanding profit pool beyond pure retail margins. [29]
- The bear case argues that much of that success is now reflected in the price—and that any stumble (macro, tariffs, competitive price wars, or regulatory friction) could hit the multiple. [30]
With Feb. 19, 2026 earnings and a February 2026 CEO transition ahead, WMT is set up to stay a top “consumer + tech” headline stock well into early 2026. [31]
References
1. news.moomoo.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. corporate.walmart.com, 4. ca.investing.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.forbes.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.nasdaqtrader.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.ft.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.tradingview.com, 23. stock.walmart.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.nasdaq.com, 26. news.moomoo.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. corporate.walmart.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.forbes.com, 31. corporate.walmart.com
