December 16, 2025 — Walmart Inc. (Nasdaq: WMT) is back in focus for investors this week as a cluster of developments converges: Wall Street analysts are still lifting price targets after Walmart’s “beat-and-raise” quarter, the retailer’s newly completed listing transfer to Nasdaq continues to draw index-inclusion chatter, and two separate regulatory/legal headlines are putting the company’s cost structure and compliance processes under a brighter spotlight. [1]
Walmart shares were trading around $115.89 in late morning New York time on Tuesday, down about 0.77% on the session at the time of writing.
Below is what’s driving Walmart stock today, what analysts are forecasting into 2026, and what investors may want to watch next.
Why Walmart stock is in the spotlight on December 16
1) Analysts keep raising Walmart price targets — again
After Walmart’s strong fiscal Q3 report and outlook lift in late November, analyst targets have continued to ratchet higher into mid-December.
On December 16, MT Newswires reporting reflected at least two notable target increases:
- Evercore ISI raised its Walmart price target to $120 from $117 and kept an Outperform rating. [2]
- Gordon Haskett lifted its target to $130 from $120 while maintaining a Buy rating. [3]
Earlier in December, TD Cowen raised its target to $136 from $125 and maintained a Buy rating, according to reports carried by Investing.com. [4]
And following the late-November earnings release, additional firms increased targets as well, including Morgan Stanley (to $125, Overweight) and Piper Sandler (to $123, Overweight), according to coverage summaries. [5]
What this signals: even after a large 2025 run-up, the Street’s debate hasn’t been “Is Walmart a good business?” so much as “How much of Walmart’s higher-margin future is already priced in?” Barron’s and other commentators have repeatedly framed the story as Walmart evolving from a traditional big-box retailer into a more tech-enabled platform with meaningful profit pools beyond retail. [6]
2) FDA warning letters add a near-term reputational and compliance overhang
In a headline that could pressure sentiment (even if the financial impact proves limited), Reuters reported that the U.S. FDA sent warning letters to Walmart and other major retailers over continued sales of recalled ByHeart infant formula. [7]
According to Reuters, the product was tied to an outbreak of infant botulism with 51 cases across 19 states, and the FDA gave the retailers 15 working days to respond with corrective steps. [8]
Why it matters for WMT stock: Walmart’s core promise—especially in groceries and household essentials—is built on trust, scale, and operational execution. Regulatory headlines that imply breakdowns in recall processes can become a management distraction and, in worst cases, can amplify legal exposure. For long-term investors, it’s less about one product category and more about the rigor of controls across a massive store-and-ecommerce network.
3) Swipe-fee settlement fight keeps pressure on payment costs
In a separate Reuters report, Walmart and other retailers urged a federal judge to reject a proposed antitrust settlement involving Visa and Mastercard. [9]
The settlement would reduce credit-card “swipe” fees by 0.1 percentage point for five years, but objectors argue it doesn’t go far enough and preserves rules that limit merchants’ negotiating leverage. [10]
Why it matters: Payments are a hidden but meaningful line item for large merchants. Even small basis-point changes can compound at Walmart’s scale. Investors typically view this as a slow-burn margin lever—rarely a single-day stock mover, but a factor that can shape medium-term profit expectations.
The Nasdaq transfer: what changed — and what didn’t
Walmart officially completed its listing transfer to Nasdaq on December 9, 2025, marking a historic shift after decades on the NYSE. [11]
Walmart and Nasdaq framed the move as aligning with Walmart’s “tech-forward” direction. Reuters also described it as a significant competitive win for Nasdaq in the ongoing listings rivalry with the NYSE. [12]
Does a listing transfer change Walmart’s fundamentals?
Not directly. The business is the business: Walmart still wins or loses based on traffic, price perception, inventory execution, supply-chain efficiency, and its ability to expand higher-margin revenue streams (advertising, marketplace services, fulfillment, memberships).
But the move can matter in two indirect ways:
- Investor base and narrative: Nasdaq is associated with tech and growth companies, and Walmart is actively pitching itself as “people-led, tech-powered” as it leans into automation and AI. [13]
- Index mechanics: Nasdaq listing opens the door to Nasdaq index inclusion dynamics.
Nasdaq-100 inclusion: Walmart missed the cutoff — for now
One of the loudest post-transfer talking points has been the Nasdaq-100.
MarketWatch reported that Walmart missed eligibility for the Nasdaq-100’s annual reconstitution because it moved its listing after the end of November, which was too late for the cutoff. [14]
However, the same report notes Walmart could still be added later if a current member exits the index—an event that could create incremental passive demand from index-tracking funds. [15]
Investor takeaway: This is not a thesis by itself, but it’s a real potential technical tailwind that some bulls cite—especially if Walmart’s market cap remains among the largest Nasdaq-listed names. [16]
Earnings, guidance, and what the “beat-and-raise” really said
The backbone of the bullish case is still Walmart’s most recent earnings cycle.
In its fiscal Q3 2026 update (released Nov. 20), Walmart raised its outlook again for the year, citing strength in online sales and continued grocery momentum. Reuters reported Walmart expected:
- Net sales growth:4.8% to 5.1%
- Adjusted EPS:$2.58 to $2.63 [17]
Reuters also highlighted that online sales jumped sharply (a key data point for investors trying to model a higher-margin Walmart over time). [18]
Why this matters into 2026: Walmart is increasingly being valued not only as a defensive consumer-staples-like retailer, but also as an omnichannel platform. That platform thesis depends on two things continuing to happen at the same time:
- Walmart keeps protecting traffic through price and convenience (especially in groceries).
- Walmart grows higher-margin mix (ads, marketplace, services, membership, automation-enabled efficiency).
Barron’s described the Nasdaq move as a capstone to Walmart’s tech transformation, with greater use of AI, robotics, and digital services across the business. [19]
Walmart stock forecast: what Wall Street is projecting now
Forecasts vary by data provider, but the direction of travel is clear: most major firms remain positive, while debate centers on upside magnitude from here.
A quick snapshot of current target levels mentioned in recent reporting
Recent target changes and notable targets cited in public coverage include:
- Evercore ISI: $120 (raised from $117) [20]
- Gordon Haskett: $130 (raised from $120) [21]
- TD Cowen: $136 (raised from $125) [22]
- Morgan Stanley: $125 (raised from $115) [23]
- Piper Sandler: $123 (raised from $111) [24]
Consensus-style views
Some compiled forecasts show Walmart with a “Strong Buy” style consensus and an average 12‑month target near the high‑$110s to low‑$120s, depending on the data source. [25]
How to read the dispersion: Targets clustered around $120–$130 suggest analysts are still underwriting continued execution and modest multiple support. The higher targets typically assume (a) continued e-commerce share gains, and (b) faster scaling of higher-margin businesses that lift operating leverage over time.
Insider and shareholder activity: what Form 144 filings do (and don’t) mean
Walmart investors also scanned recent SEC-related filings.
Insider filing: Daniel Bartlett
A Form 144 filing associated with Walmart executive Daniel Bartlett disclosed a proposed sale of 1,425 shares, with the filing indicating a Rule 10b5‑1 plan adoption date (March 28, 2024). [26]
Context: Form 144 is a notice of a proposed sale under Rule 144 and is often tied to routine selling programs. Small planned sales like this rarely change an investment thesis by themselves.
Large-holder activity
Separate Form 144 coverage summaries also referenced a proposed sale of 107,000 shares connected to a charitable contribution, alongside aggregated sales by other named sellers over prior months. [27]
Bottom line: With Walmart’s ownership structure and philanthropy-related activity, periodic selling and gifting can appear in filings without signaling deteriorating fundamentals. Still, large, persistent distributions can matter at the margin for supply/demand—so investors often track them.
What to watch next for Walmart stock
1) Next earnings date: February 19, 2026
Walmart’s investor relations events calendar lists the FY2026 Q4 earnings release for Feb. 19, 2026 (materials early morning, followed by the conference call). [28]
This report is likely to be a major volatility catalyst because it captures the holiday quarter and provides the cleanest reset of 2026 expectations.
2) Index and flow catalysts
Even though Walmart missed the Nasdaq‑100 reconstitution cutoff, investors will keep watching for any later inclusion pathway, which could create incremental passive flows. [29]
3) Regulatory follow-ups
- FDA responses and any enforcement escalation tied to the ByHeart recall issue. [30]
- Developments in the Visa/Mastercard settlement challenge and broader swipe-fee litigation landscape. [31]
The bull case vs. the bear case heading into 2026
The bull case for WMT
- Defensive demand + value positioning: Walmart historically tends to hold up when consumers trade down. (This view continues to show up in mainstream commentary.) [32]
- E-commerce and services mix: If online growth and higher-margin pools scale, Walmart can justify a valuation premium versus traditional retailers. [33]
- Operational tech edge: Walmart has emphasized increasing automation and AI adoption, which bulls expect to improve speed, in-stock rates, and cost-to-serve over time. [34]
The bear case for WMT
- Execution and compliance risk at scale: The FDA warning letters underscore how operational slip-ups can turn into reputational and regulatory issues. [35]
- Costs that are hard to control: Payments (swipe fees), wage and labor pressure, and supply-chain costs can compress margins if sales growth slows. [36]
- Valuation sensitivity: When a “defensive” stock also trades with a growth-style premium narrative, it can become more sensitive to any disappointment in growth, margins, or guidance tone.
Where Walmart stock stands today
On December 16, Walmart stock is being priced as a company that can do two jobs at once: defend traffic in a choppy consumer environment and compound earnings through higher-margin digital and services initiatives. The latest analyst target hikes reinforce that many on Wall Street still believe in that model—while the week’s regulatory/legal headlines are a reminder that scale brings its own risks. [37]
With the next major fundamental checkpoint set for February 19, 2026, investors will likely keep treating near-term volatility as a debate over price (valuation and targets), not a debate over quality (Walmart’s ability to keep gaining share). [38]
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.marketscreener.com, 3. www.marketscreener.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.gurufocus.com, 6. www.barrons.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.nasdaq.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.marketwatch.com, 15. www.marketwatch.com, 16. www.marketwatch.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.barrons.com, 20. www.marketscreener.com, 21. www.marketscreener.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.gurufocus.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. stockanalysis.com, 26. www.sec.gov, 27. www.stocktitan.net, 28. corporate.walmart.com, 29. www.marketwatch.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.fool.com, 33. www.barrons.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.marketscreener.com, 38. corporate.walmart.com
