New York time check: It is 2:35 a.m. ET on Saturday, December 27, 2025 in New York.
With U.S. markets closed for the weekend, Walmart Inc. (WMT) heads into the final trading days of 2025 in a familiar role—a defensive retail bellwether—but with an increasingly unfamiliar narrative: investors are also treating it like a tech-and-logistics compounding story.
Walmart stock price right now and why “right now” matters
Because it’s Saturday, the Nasdaq and NYSE are closed. The most recent available quote shows Walmart (WMT) at $111.74, up about 0.12% versus the prior close, with about 9.0 million shares traded and market cap around $900 billion.
That last print matters in context: Friday’s session was a light-volume, post-Christmas drift near record highs for the broader market—exactly the kind of tape where individual mega-caps can look “quiet” even when big investors are actively repositioning for the new year. [1]
For market context, the S&P 500 proxy (SPY) was essentially flat-to-down on the day, consistent with a year-end pause rather than a risk-off shock.
The bigger backdrop: stocks near records, and the end-of-year tape can get weird
Heading into the last week of 2025, U.S. equities are hovering near record levels, with Reuters reporting the S&P 500 sitting within about 1% of 7,000—a psychologically loud number—after a strong year. [2]
Two practical implications for WMT investors:
- Liquidity is thinner around the holidays, so individual stock moves can look exaggerated (in either direction).
- The market narrative is split: investors still want “quality compounders,” but they’re also increasingly allergic to overpaying for that quality.
Walmart sits right at that crossroads.
What’s driving Walmart stock: earnings execution and a raised FY26 outlook
The most important фундаментals catalyst in recent weeks remains Walmart’s fiscal 2026 third-quarter update (reported Nov. 20, 2025)—not because it was flashy, but because it reinforced a pattern: steady core growth plus faster growth in higher-margin “adjacent” businesses.
From Walmart’s earnings release filed with the SEC:
- Revenue:$179.5 billion, up 5.8%
- Global eCommerce: up 27%
- Walmart U.S. comparable sales: up 4.5%
- Global advertising business: up 53% (including VIZIO); Walmart Connect U.S.: up 33%
- FY26 outlook raised: net sales growth to 4.8%–5.1% and adjusted operating income growth to 4.8%–5.5% (constant currency); adjusted EPS expected $2.58–$2.63 [3]
That combination—mid-single-digit sales growth plus faster growth in e-commerce and advertising—is the blueprint for why some investors are willing to pay a premium multiple for WMT.
The fine print investors shouldn’t ignore
The same release also lists material swing factors that can hit results, including tariff and trade policies, consumer demand, inflation, and interest rates. [4]
In other words: Walmart is resilient, but it’s not magically immune to macro forces—especially ones that squeeze costs or disrupt supply chains.
Walmart’s Nasdaq move: not just symbolism, potentially a flows story
One of the most underappreciated recent developments is structural: Walmart moved its listing from the NYSE to the Nasdaq, keeping the WMT ticker.
- Nasdaq announced on Dec. 9, 2025 that Walmart completed the transfer and began trading on Nasdaq, with CEO Doug McMillon framing it as aligned with Walmart’s “tech-powered” strategy. [5]
- Investopedia’s coverage emphasized the repositioning angle—Walmart leaning into technology and AI—and noted market watchers discussing potential index-related benefits, including the possibility that Walmart could be angling for Nasdaq-100 inclusion over time (not guaranteed). [6]
Why this matters for the stock: index eligibility and passive fund flows can influence demand at the margin, especially for mega-caps. But investors should treat “index inclusion” as a scenario, not a promise.
Holiday consumer demand: steady spending, heavy deal-hunting—good terrain for Walmart
Holiday data has generally supported the “value retail wins” thesis.
Reuters reported that U.S. retail sales rose roughly 4% over the holiday season period tracked (with slightly different methodologies from Visa vs. Mastercard). Importantly, economists pointed to consumers being more deliberate—using AI tools to compare prices and leaning into promotions. [7]
That consumer behavior pattern tends to favor Walmart’s core proposition: price, convenience, and fulfillment speed.
Walmart’s own holiday recap (corporate release, Dec. 2, 2025) highlighted operational metrics that feed the bull case:
- 57% more orders fulfilled from stores on Black Friday vs. last year
- 44% more orders delivered in under 3 hours
- Growth led by digital, with strong performance across big holiday categories
- Increased usage of “Sparky,” Walmart’s gen-AI shopping assistant [8]
Corporate posts are not independent analysis, but the specific operational stats help explain why investors may see Walmart as more than just a low-margin grocer.
Growth engines beyond the supercenter: ads, TV, and “commerce everywhere”
Two themes keep showing up in both company disclosures and outside coverage:
- Retail media / advertising (Walmart Connect)
- CTV + shoppable formats (boosted by VIZIO integration)
Walmart’s earnings release quantified the acceleration: global advertising up 53% (including VIZIO), and Walmart Connect U.S. up 33%. [9]
Industry coverage has also focused on how VIZIO data + Walmart purchase data could strengthen closed-loop measurement for advertisers—one reason investors may assign a higher “platform multiple” than traditional retailers typically get. [10]
And in “unexpected but strategically real” news: Reuters reported Walmart opened a second U.S. milk processing facility with a $350 million investment—part of a broader push into supply chain control and private label demand. [11]
That’s not as headline-grabby as AI, but it’s a classic Walmart move: defend price leadership by tightening the cost structure.
Analyst forecasts for WMT stock: bullish consensus, but not a free lunch
Wall Street’s mainstream stance remains constructive, though the stock’s valuation is the center of gravity.
MarketBeat’s aggregation (33 analysts) shows:
- Average 12-month price target:$120.69
- High:$135
- Low:$91
- Ratings skew strongly positive: 32 buys, 1 hold, with a “moderate buy” consensus [12]
That suggests analysts broadly still see upside—but not unlimited upside.
The “blue-sky” bull case that keeps getting cited
Investopedia previously reported that Morgan Stanley laid out a bull scenario where Walmart could reach $150, tied to a “flywheel” thesis: improving margins fund reinvestment in automation/e-commerce, while Walmart+ supports data and retail media growth. [13]
Even in that bullish framing, the same coverage notes caution from other analysts (including Bank of America in that piece) about high expectations and limited room for further multiple expansion. [14]
The valuation debate: why some credible voices are waving a yellow flag
Here’s the uncomfortable truth for bulls: Walmart may be a great business and still be a risky stock at the wrong price.
AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) recently labeled Walmart “Ultra Expensive” using its composite Value Grade framework:
- Value Score: 20 (Value Grade F)
- P/E: ~39.1 vs. sector median ~22.3
- Price/Free Cash Flow: ~112.9 (per AAII’s dataset) [15]
Separately, Trefis published a blunt downside scenario titled “Walmart Stock To $80?” arguing that high valuation combined with moderate growth could make the stock “unattractive,” even while acknowledging strong downturn resilience. [16]
You don’t have to agree with either view to respect the underlying point: when a defensive stock is priced like a growth stock, execution risk increases.
Legal and policy overhangs investors are tracking
Two December legal headlines stand out as potential “headline risk” items (not necessarily fundamental thesis-breakers, but worth knowing before Monday’s open):
- PepsiCo and Walmart price-fixing lawsuit: Reuters reported a proposed consumer class action alleging a decade-long price-fixing scheme tied to preferential wholesale pricing and inflated prices elsewhere; Walmart said it’s aware of the litigation and remains committed to negotiating for value. [17]
- Visa/Mastercard settlement objection: Reuters reported Walmart objected to a proposed antitrust settlement, arguing it offers “no meaningful relief” for large merchants and forces release of claims; the dispute centers on swipe fees and network rules. [18]
Add in the macro-policy layer: Walmart itself lists tariff and trade policies among key uncertainties that can materially affect results. [19]
What investors should know before the next trading session
Because it’s Saturday, there is no regular-session trading today. The next full U.S. market session is Monday, Dec. 29, 2025 (with the usual open at 9:30 a.m. ET).
Here’s a practical weekend checklist for WMT holders and watchers:
1) Expect “thin tape” behavior into year-end
Reuters described Friday’s trading as light volume near record highs. That dynamic often persists into the last sessions of the year, which can amplify moves on relatively small news. [20]
2) Watch the macro calendar for catalysts that can move defensives
The market’s week-ahead focus includes Fed expectations and key data releases. Reuters flagged upcoming attention on Federal Reserve communications (including meeting minutes) as investors calibrate the path of rates. [21]
A week-ahead economic calendar also highlights items like consumer confidence, housing data, and manufacturing indicators—the kind of releases that can swing sentiment between “growth” and “defensive” leadership. [22]
3) Know the next major Walmart catalyst date
Walmart has scheduled its next major investor event: FY2026 Q4 earnings on Feb. 19, 2026 at 7:00 a.m. Central (earnings materials around 6:00 a.m. CT). [23]
That’s the next “hard” catalyst where guidance and margins can reset the valuation debate.
4) Anchor to clear reference points on the chart without pretending it’s destiny
Even without doing technical astrology: it helps to know the 52-week range. Nasdaq’s market data shows WMT has traded roughly between $79.81 and $117.45 over the last 52 weeks. [24]
With the stock around $111–$112, investors are closer to the upper band than the lower—another reason valuation sensitivity is high.
Bottom line for Walmart stock (WMT) heading into the next open
Walmart goes into the next session with a rare mix of narratives:
- Defensive retailer benefiting from value-seeking consumers and resilient holiday spending [25]
- Tech-powered operator showing measurable strength in e-commerce and advertising [26]
- Flows and visibility tailwinds from its Nasdaq move—plus ongoing chatter about index dynamics [27]
- A valuation that leaves less room for error, with credible voices warning the stock looks expensive on classic metrics [28]
That combination is exactly why WMT can feel “calm” day-to-day yet remain highly consequential for both retail investors and institutions as 2026 approaches.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.sec.gov, 4. www.sec.gov, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. www.investopedia.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. corporate.walmart.com, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.marketingdive.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.investopedia.com, 14. www.investopedia.com, 15. www.aaii.com, 16. www.trefis.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.sec.gov, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. corporate.walmart.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.sec.gov, 27. www.investopedia.com, 28. www.aaii.com
