Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) heads into the final weeks of 2025 as one of the most closely watched stocks in global retail – and increasingly, in tech-adjacent investing. As of the close on December 5, 2025, Walmart shares traded around $115.11, near record highs, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $917 billion. [1]
The stock is up more than 20% over the past 12 months and nearly 13% in the past month, vastly outperforming the broader market and the consumer staples sector. [2] At the same time, it trades at a rich ~40× trailing and forward earnings, roughly double the valuation of the typical U.S. consumer staples company. [3]
Against that backdrop, three storylines dominate the Walmart stock narrative as of December 6, 2025:
- A historic exchange switch to Nasdaq on December 9
- A CEO transition from Doug McMillon to John Furner in early 2026
- Strong fundamentals driven by e‑commerce, advertising and AI‑powered operations, tempered by concerns about valuation and the health of lower‑income consumers
This article aggregates the latest news, forecasts and analyses to provide a comprehensive Walmart (WMT) stock update for investors, traders and readers following the name on Google News and Discover.
Where Walmart Stock Stands Today
According to StockAnalysis, Walmart closed on December 5 at $115.11, with a slight after‑hours uptick to $115.21. [4] Key snapshot metrics:
- Market cap: $917.45 billion
- 12‑month price change: +21.87%
- 5‑year beta: 0.64 (lower volatility than the broader market)
- Trailing P/E: 40.25
- Forward P/E: 40.21
- Price‑to‑sales (P/S): 1.31
- Dividend yield: 0.82% on an annual dividend of $0.94 per share
- Years of consecutive dividend growth: 52
For context, the S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector trades at a forward P/E of about 21×, with dividend yields around 2–2.5%. [6] In other words, Walmart is being valued more like a high‑quality growth stock than a traditional grocery and discount retailer.
Zacks notes that Walmart has delivered approximately 12.9% returns over the last month alone, versus about 1.3% for the S&P 500 and 11.6% for its industry group, underscoring the recent momentum in WMT shares. [7]
A Historic Move: Walmart’s Switch to Nasdaq on December 9
What’s happening?
On December 9, 2025, Walmart will transfer its stock listing from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to the Nasdaq Global Select Market, while keeping its ticker symbol “WMT”. [8]
The company is also moving nine bond listings alongside the common stock. Walmart describes the decision as aligning with its “people‑led, tech‑powered” strategy and its push to integrate automation and AI across its operations. [9]
Reuters characterizes the switch as the largest exchange transfer on record, noting that the move is a major win for Nasdaq in its long‑running rivalry with the NYSE. [10] When the transfer was announced on November 20, Walmart’s market value was around $850+ billion, making it one of NYSE’s biggest departures by capitalization in history. [11]
Why does it matter for WMT stock?
Several potential implications are driving commentary and forecasts:
- Index and ETF flows:
- Nasdaq‑listed megacaps are heavily owned by index and ETF products. Analysts expect Walmart to be added to the Nasdaq‑100 after the next reconstitution, which could force passive funds to buy the stock. [12]
- A Wall Street Journal analysis recently noted that the switch could attract on the order of tens of billions of dollars in passive and benchmark‑driven flows over time, further supporting demand for WMT shares. [13]
- Narrative shift:
- Moving from the NYSE to the tech‑heavy Nasdaq reinforces Walmart’s attempt to be seen not just as a big‑box retailer, but as a tech‑enabled platform leveraging AI, automation and data at scale. [14]
- No change to fundamentals:
- The exchange transfer doesn’t alter Walmart’s business, share count or cash flows. It is essentially a branding and capital‑markets move, albeit one with real consequences for who owns the stock and how it trades.
Short‑term, the Nasdaq debut on December 9 is likely to be a headline catalyst watched closely by traders. Longer‑term, the bigger question is whether Walmart can deliver tech‑style growth to justify its tech‑style valuation.
Earnings Check: Walmart’s Q3 FY26 Results and Outlook
Walmart reported Q3 fiscal 2026 (quarter ended October 31, 2025) results on November 20. The numbers were solid across the board. [15]
Headline results:
- Revenue: $179.5 billion, +5.8% year‑over‑year (6% in constant currency), beating consensus estimates (~$175.1 billion). [16]
- Walmart U.S. comparable sales:+4.5%, a healthy figure for a mature retailer. [17]
- Net income: $6.14 billion, +34.2% versus a year ago. [18]
- Reported EPS: $0.77, +35.1% year‑over‑year.
- Adjusted EPS: $0.62, up 6.9% and ahead of the $0.60 consensus. [19]
Walmart also raised full‑year FY26 guidance:
- Net sales growth: 4.8–5.1% in constant currency
- Adjusted EPS: $2.58–2.63
Analysts at StockStory/Finviz called Walmart the “best of the bunch” among large‑format retailers this quarter, highlighting its above‑consensus revenue and margin performance versus peers like Target, BJ’s and Costco. [21]
Growth Engines: E‑Commerce, Advertising and AI
Behind the headline numbers, several structural growth drivers are central to today’s Walmart stock analysis:
1. E‑commerce and omnichannel
Walmart’s online and omnichannel businesses continue to grow at high double‑digit rates:
- Global e‑commerce sales grew roughly 27% in Q3, with Walmart U.S. e‑commerce up about 28%. [22]
- Same‑day and three‑hour delivery now reach ~95% of U.S. households, according to Walmart’s own disclosures and Black Friday commentary. [23]
This hybrid model – using stores as fulfillment nodes while scaling automated warehouses – is one of the main reasons investors increasingly compare Walmart to Amazon rather than to traditional grocers.
2. Retail media and high‑margin services
Walmart is also leaning into asset‑light, high‑margin revenue streams:
- Global advertising revenue grew more than 50% year‑over‑year in Q3, with Walmart Connect (U.S.) up roughly 30+%. [24]
- Membership products like Walmart+ and marketplace fees further diversify profit pools beyond low‑margin grocery and general merchandise. [25]
Many bullish analysts argue that these businesses can slowly lift Walmart’s overall margin profile, even if headline revenue growth stays in the mid‑single‑digit range.
3. AI and automation – including Symbotic
Walmart has aggressively invested in AI‑driven automation, from robotics in distribution centers to in‑store and app‑based experiences:
- In January 2025, automation partner Symbotic completed the acquisition of Walmart’s Advanced Systems and Robotics business and signed a major commercial agreement to build AI‑enabled fulfillment solutions for the retailer. [26]
- Walmart is funding a multi‑year development program and ordering systems for hundreds of stores, a move retail tech analysts have called “one of the most ambitious” automation initiatives in the sector. [27]
Recent volatility in Symbotic’s own stock – it fell about 15% on December 4 after announcing a 10‑million‑share public offering – has reminded investors that Walmart’s automation story carries partner risk and valuation risk. [28] But it also underscores how central robotics and AI are to Walmart’s long‑term cost and service model.
Holiday 2025: Strong Black Friday Signals
The early read‑through from the holiday shopping season is encouraging for Walmart:
- During the Black Friday week (Nov. 25–Dec. 1), Walmart delivered 57% more orders than last year, according to data shared with Axios. [29]
- 44% more orders were delivered within three hours, leveraging its same‑day network that reaches roughly 95% of U.S. households. [30]
- Nearly 10 million shoppers used the Walmart app in stores, and those customers spent 25% more on average than shoppers who didn’t use the app. [31]
- Walmart’s third‑party marketplace hit a record for shoppers who browsed and then completed purchases, with items like PlayStation 5 consoles and niche brands topping online best‑seller lists. [32]
The company also leaned heavily on technology, including its AI assistant “Sparky”, to help customers compare prices and find gifts in real time. [33]
Together with the raised FY26 guidance, these data points have strengthened the bullish narrative that Walmart can win both value‑seeking and convenience‑seeking consumers in a still‑inflationary environment.
Leadership Transition: From Doug McMillon to John Furner
On November 14, 2025, Walmart announced a major leadership change:
- Long‑time CEO Doug McMillon will retire on January 31, 2026, after more than a decade in the role.
- John Furner, currently President and CEO of Walmart U.S., will become President and CEO of Walmart Inc. effective February 1, 2026. [34]
- McMillon will remain on the Board of Directors through the 2026 annual shareholders’ meeting to support a smooth transition. [35]
Reuters notes that under McMillon’s tenure, Walmart’s value more than tripled, as he pushed e‑commerce, modernized supply chains, and expanded into advertising and marketplace services. [36] Analysts generally view Furner – a three‑decade company veteran who previously led both Sam’s Club and Walmart U.S. – as a continuity candidate rather than a sign of radical strategic change. [37]
From a stock perspective, the CEO news generated only modest volatility (shares were roughly flat to slightly down on the day), suggesting investors are comfortable with the succession plan but will watch Furner’s execution closely in 2026. [38]
Dividends: A Low‑Yield but Ultra‑Reliable Payer
Walmart is a textbook “Dividend King”:
- On February 20, 2025, the Board raised the annual dividend 13% to $0.94 per share, marking the 52nd consecutive year of increases. [39]
- At the current share price, that implies a forward yield of about 0.8–0.9%, with a payout ratio around 33% and a shareholder yield (dividends plus buybacks) of roughly 1.4%. [40]
- The next ex‑dividend date is December 12, 2025, with payment scheduled for early January. [41]
Income‑focused investors won’t own Walmart for its yield alone, but many view the half‑century‑plus streak and conservative payout ratio as a sign of balance sheet strength and management discipline. [42]
Analyst Ratings, Price Targets and Long‑Term Forecasts
Wall Street consensus
Across major platforms, sentiment on Walmart stock is broadly positive:
- StockAnalysis: 30 analysts, “Strong Buy” consensus, with an average 12‑month price target of $118.27 – about 2.7% above the current price. [43]
- Other aggregators like MarketBeat, Investing.com and MarketWatch report similar average targets in the high‑teens to low‑$120s, with most ratings in the “Buy” or “Strong Buy” camp and only a small minority of neutral or bearish calls. [44]
- Tigress Financial recently reiterated a Buy rating and lifted its price objective to around $130, implying double‑digit upside versus today’s price. [45]
On the numbers side, consensus expects revenue growth of roughly 4–5% annually and EPS growth around 8–10% over the medium term. [46]
Fundamental and valuation models
Not all analysis is uniformly bullish:
- Simply Wall St and similar DCF‑style models often land on a fair value in the high‑$110s, suggesting only mid‑single‑digit upside from current levels and flagging the stock as rich versus retail peers. TechStock²+2Simply Wall St+2
- A summary at TS2.tech notes that Morningstar considers the stock “significantly overvalued”, with a fair value estimate near $60 per share despite rating Walmart’s competitive advantage as a wide moat. TechStock²
In plain terms: most sell‑side analysts like the story and see modest upside, while more valuation‑sensitive shops warn that there is little margin of safety if growth slows or margins disappoint.
Bull vs. Bear Case for Walmart Stock in December 2025
The bull case
Recent bullish theses – from Insider Monkey’s “Bull Case Theory” to Motley Fool’s “Consumer Staples King” articles – converge on several core arguments: [47]
- Durable competitive moat
Walmart remains the world’s largest retailer by revenue, with more than 10,000 stores globally, a powerful supply chain and purchasing scale that few can match. [48] - Omnichannel strength and tech adoption
High‑20% e‑commerce growth, same‑day delivery coverage, app usage and robotics investments position Walmart as a credible alternative to Amazon for everyday essentials. [49] - High‑margin growth engines
Advertising, marketplace fees and memberships are growing faster than the core business and can support double‑digit profit growth even if sales grow in mid‑single digits. [50] - Defensive profile in a shaky economy
In an environment of still‑elevated inflation and uneven consumer confidence, Walmart benefits when shoppers trade down from higher‑priced retailers. Reuters has repeatedly highlighted Walmart’s ability to pull in more affluent customers during downturns. [51] - Nasdaq and index catalysts
The exchange switch and likely inclusion in the Nasdaq‑100 could expand Walmart’s investor base and support the share price via forced buying from index and thematic funds. [52]
Some of the more aggressive bullish pieces even argue Walmart could deliver up to 50% upside over a multi‑year horizon if inflation eases, margins expand and its tech narrative continues to rerate the multiple. [53]
The bear case
Skeptics – including a number of valuation‑driven analysts – focus on several risks:
- Premium valuation vs. modest growth
A ~40× P/E multiple on expected single‑digit revenue growth and high‑single‑digit EPS growth leaves Walmart priced closer to a tech platform than a mature retailer. If investor appetite for “defensive growth” cools, multiple compression could hurt returns even if the business continues to perform. [54] - Low yield and limited cash‑flow yield
With a dividend yield below 1% and a free‑cash‑flow yield under 2%, some income and value investors see better risk‑reward elsewhere in staples and other sectors. [55] - Margin pressures from wages, tariffs and logistics
Raising wages, investing in automation and navigating tariff uncertainty all weigh on margins. Simply Wall St and others note that current valuations assume continued margin expansion, leaving little room for missteps. [56] - Consumer health at the low end
While higher‑income shoppers still look resilient, lower‑income households remain under pressure from higher rates and sticky prices, which can hit discretionary categories that are important to Walmart’s mix. [57] - Execution risk in AI and automation
The Symbotic partnership and other large‑scale automation efforts are capital‑intensive and complex. The recent 15% drop in Symbotic’s shares on news of a secondary offering highlighted how quickly sentiment can swing around this part of the story. [58]
In short: the story is excellent; the price is the debate.
Key Dates and Catalysts to Watch
For investors tracking Walmart from December 6 onward, several milestones stand out:
- December 9, 2025: First day of trading on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker WMT. [59]
- Mid‑December 2025: Potential Nasdaq‑100 reconstitution, with a high likelihood of Walmart’s inclusion, which could trigger passive flows. [60]
- December 12, 2025:Ex‑dividend date for the next quarterly payout of $0.235 per share. [61]
- Early 2026:
Bottom Line: How to Think About Walmart Stock Today
As of December 6, 2025, the consensus picture looks like this:
- Business performance: Strong. Q3 results, raised guidance and robust Black Friday data all suggest Walmart is executing well and gaining share in both physical and digital retail. [64]
- Strategic story: Compelling. The Nasdaq move, AI and automation investments, and high‑margin growth engines (ads, marketplace, memberships) position Walmart as a tech‑powered retail platform, not just a chain of stores. [65]
- Governance: Stable but evolving. The CEO transition appears orderly, with an experienced internal successor and continuity in strategy. [66]
- Valuation: Demanding. With a P/E roughly twice that of the staples sector and a sub‑1% yield, Walmart is priced for continued excellence, not cheap turnaround. [67]
For long‑term, quality‑focused investors, Walmart can reasonably be framed as a defensive compounder with tech‑driven tailwinds – but one where future returns may depend more on earnings growth than on further multiple expansion.
For strict value or high‑income investors, the current setup may feel like too much safety at too high a price, especially if bond yields and cheaper dividend payers remain competitive alternatives.
Either way, Walmart has become one of the most important bellwethers for both the U.S. consumer and the evolving line between “retail” and “technology” – and the next few weeks (Nasdaq listing, ex‑dividend, holiday results) will offer fresh data points on whether the stock’s lofty valuation can keep holding.
References
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