On December 9, 2025, Walmart Inc. stock begins trading on the Nasdaq, capping a year in which the world’s largest retailer by revenue has quietly turned into one of Wall Street’s favorite “tech‑adjacent” growth stories. With WMT hovering around $114 per share, a market value of roughly $910 billion and a price‑to‑earnings multiple near 40x, investors are asking the same question: how much of Walmart’s future is already priced in – and what comes next for the stock? [1]
Walmart stock today: price, valuation and trading range
As of mid‑day trading on December 9, 2025, Walmart (ticker: WMT) is changing hands at about $114–115 on its first day on the Nasdaq Global Select Market. That puts the stock: [2]
- Within a few percent of its 52‑week high of $116.27
- Well above its 52‑week low of $79.81
- On a trading day range of roughly $113.02–$114.47
With trailing 12‑month revenue of about $703 billion and net income of roughly $22.9 billion, the stock’s latest metrics include: [3]
- Market cap: ≈ $910 billion
- Trailing P/E: ~40x
- Forward P/E: ~40x
- Dividend yield: around 0.8% on an annual payout of $0.94 per share
Independent valuation work highlights how rich that multiple is. Simply Wall St estimates Walmart is trading at nearly 40x earnings versus an average of about 21x for the broader consumer retail sector, and only 3–4% below its modeled fair value around $118–119 per share. [4]
Despite that full valuation, the stock has delivered powerful returns. Over the past five years, Walmart has produced a total return of about 131%, including dividends, versus roughly 102% for the S&P 500 – a near 30‑point outperformance. [5]
A historic move: Walmart debuts on Nasdaq
Walmart’s December 9 transfer from the New York Stock Exchange, where it had traded since 1972, to the Nasdaq is more than a cosmetic change of venue.
In a November 20 press release, Walmart said it would move its common stock and nine bond listings to Nasdaq, keeping the ticker “WMT” and targeting a December 9, 2025 start date. The company explicitly framed the switch as aligning with its “people‑led, tech‑powered” long‑term strategy and its heavy investments in automation and artificial intelligence. [6]
A follow‑up release on December 9 confirmed the transfer was complete and described the debut as “a new chapter in the company’s 63‑year history of growth, innovation, and long‑term value creation for shareholders.” [7]
Several pieces of analysis around the move highlight why the listing change matters for the stock:
- Tech narrative & passive flows: The Wall Street Journal notes that Walmart now trades at roughly 40x forward earnings, richer than many mega‑cap tech names, after a ~27% share price gain this year, and estimates that inclusion in more Nasdaq‑focused indexes and ETFs could attract around $20 billion in new passive demand. [8]
- “Tech transformation is real”: Barron’s coverage of the debut argues that the move to Nasdaq underscores Walmart’s evolution into a retailer whose growth is increasingly driven by e‑commerce, advertising and data, not just brick‑and‑mortar stores. [9]
For investors, the Nasdaq listing crystallizes a story that’s been building for several years: Walmart wants to be valued more like a durable, tech‑enabled platform than a low‑growth, low‑margin grocer.
Latest results: Q3 FY26 earnings and international momentum
Walmart’s fundamental momentum is helping justify that richer multiple.
In Q3 of fiscal 2026 (quarter ended October 31, 2025), Walmart reported: [10]
- Total revenue around $179.5 billion, up roughly 6% year‑over‑year
- U.S. comparable sales up about 4.5%, with strong traffic gains
- E‑commerce growth in the high‑20% range
Management raised full‑year guidance, now expecting: [11]
- Net sales growth of roughly 4.8%–5.1% (up from prior guidance in the high‑3% to mid‑4% range)
- Adjusted operating income growth of about 4.8%–5.5%
The standout in Q3 was Walmart International. According to a fresh Zacks deep‑dive, the segment’s net sales jumped 11.4% to $33.7 billion, while adjusted operating income climbed nearly 17% to $1.4 billion, driven by strong performance at Flipkart, Walmex and China. Segment e‑commerce sales surged 26%, and China revenue hit $6.1 billion, with digital penetration approaching 50% of sales in that market. [12]
Those international results matter because they showcase the global scalability of Walmart’s digital and logistics playbook, not just its U.S. strength.
Tech, AI and automation: why Walmart is being priced like a tech stock
Walmart’s multiple isn’t just about sales growth; it’s about how the company is growing.
A widely cited Wall Street Journal analysis argues that Walmart’s valuation premium reflects three years of double‑digit profit growth, powered by investments in supply‑chain modernization and e‑commerce, and by fast‑growing profit engines such as advertising and membership. [13]
Independent tech and strategy research provides more color on those bets:
- AI everywhere: Constellation Research notes that Walmart is deploying AI both inside its operations and in customer‑facing tools. Internal AI agent “Wally” helps merchants pinpoint root causes of stockouts and overstocks, while AI‑assisted coding tools saved Walmart developers 4 million hours last year and are rolling out across North America and India. [14]
- Automation at scale: Management has said that less than half of U.S. stores are yet served by fully automated supply‑chain facilities, leaving considerable runway as Walmart continues to automate distribution centers and in‑store processes. [15]
- High‑margin ad and data businesses: In fiscal 2025, Walmart’s global advertising business generated about $4.4 billion in sales, up 27% year‑over‑year, while global membership income reached $3.8 billion, up 21%. Data analytics platform Walmart Data Ventures grew net sales at a double‑digit rate and nearly doubled its client base. [16]
A newer Motley Fool piece on “2 Catalysts That Can Drive Walmart Stock Higher in 2026” echoes these themes, pointing to online advertising and continued e‑commerce share gains as key drivers of margins and earnings, noting that ad revenue grew roughly 53% in Walmart’s latest quarter and helped deliver about 34% net income growth on ~6% revenue growth. [17]
The upshot: more of Walmart’s profit growth is coming from capital‑light, high‑margin, tech‑driven revenue streams layered on top of its enormous store base.
Holiday season and ultrafast delivery: short‑term tailwind
Near‑term, Walmart’s stock narrative is tightly intertwined with holiday performance and delivery capabilities.
On December 9, Walmart announced that Express Delivery orders can be placed as late as 5 p.m. local time on Christmas Eve for delivery in as fast as one hour, with earlier cut‑off times for same‑day pickup and standard shipping. [18]
In a parallel Business Insider exclusive, Walmart said: [19]
- It now fulfills 2.5x more express‑delivery orders in December than in an average month.
- Its network can reach about 95% of U.S. households within three hours.
- More than one‑third of shoppers are willing to pay extra for one‑hour‑or‑less delivery.
- A new “Get it Now” feature in the Walmart app shows real‑time minute‑level delivery estimates and one‑tap ordering; the company recently fulfilled its fastest Black Friday order in just 10 minutes.
Those capabilities do two things that matter for WMT shareholders:
- They make Walmart stickier for both value‑oriented and time‑starved higher‑income customers.
- They turn stores into mini‑fulfillment hubs, improving inventory productivity and supporting the ad and membership ecosystems built on top.
Shifting customer mix: more affluent shoppers and “dark store” experiments
Walmart’s customer base is changing in ways that support higher margins but also raise strategic questions.
An Investopedia analysis notes that more consumers with six‑figure incomes have started shopping at Walmart, particularly online, as the company built out its delivery and pickup capabilities. [20]
To better serve dense urban areas where its traditional big‑box stores have struggled, Walmart is experimenting with “dark store” formats – locations closed to walk‑in traffic and optimized solely for rapid e‑commerce fulfillment. CFO John David Rainey said early returns from these urban dark‑store pilots are “encouraging”, suggesting they could become an important way to serve affluent city dwellers without the political and real‑estate hurdles of conventional supercenters. [21]
Combined with its ultrafast delivery push, that strategy positions Walmart as a serious rival to Amazon, Target and Instacart‑enabled grocers in the race for convenience‑driven, higher‑income households.
Dividend, cash flow and balance sheet strength
For income and quality‑focused investors, Walmart’s dividend profile remains a quiet anchor to the story.
- Walmart is a Dividend King, having raised its dividend for 52 consecutive years. [22]
- Earlier in 2025, the company announced a 13% dividend increase to an annualized $0.94 per share, though the yield remains modest at around 0.8% given the strong share price. [23]
Behind that dividend is formidable cash generation. Walmart’s latest Form 10‑Q shows that in the first nine months of fiscal 2026 it produced roughly $27.5 billion in net cash from operating activities, against about $18.6 billion of capital expenditures – still leaving room for dividends and share repurchases. [24]
Debt levels are significant but manageable, with total debt well covered by earnings and interest coverage comfortably in double digits, according to multiple equity research dashboards. [25]
Leadership transition: new CEO, same strategy
Another major storyline for Walmart stock is leadership continuity at the top.
On November 14, 2025, Walmart announced that long‑time CEO Doug McMillon will retire on January 31, 2026, after more than a decade as chief executive and over 40 years with the company. John Furner, currently CEO of Walmart U.S., will take over as President and CEO of Walmart Inc. on February 1, 2026. [26]
Furner is a classic Walmart “lifer,” who started as an hourly associate in 1993, led Sam’s Club, and since 2019 has run the U.S. business and its 4,600+ stores and 1.5 million associates. [27]
Business Insider reports that McMillon, 59, views the timing as driven by the readiness of his successor; during his tenure the stock has gained roughly 300%, and he will remain on the board for a transition period. [28]
For shareholders, the key takeaway is that Walmart’s strategic direction – heavy investment in tech, supply chain and omnichannel – is expected to continue, rather than reset, under Furner.
Analyst ratings, price targets and valuation debate
Wall Street remains broadly bullish on WMT, with a few pockets of caution around valuation:
- StockAnalysis reports that about 30 analysts currently rate Walmart a “Strong Buy”, with an average 12‑month price target of around $118.33, implying 3–4% upside from current levels. [29]
- Brokerage and retail‑investing platforms such as Public.com show a similar picture: an average target near $119 and a rating skewed roughly 96% Buy/Strong Buy, with virtually no Sell ratings. [30]
- Recent research from firms like Evercore ISI and TD Cowen has nudged price targets higher into the $117–$130+ range following Walmart’s latest earnings beat and guidance raise. [31]
At the same time, several commentators warn that expectations are lofty:
- The Wall Street Journal points out that with Walmart trading around 40x forward earnings, analysts only forecast ~8% average annual earnings growth over the longer term – relatively low compared with other companies on such high multiples. [32]
- Simply Wall St’s modeling suggests only modest further upside from current levels before the stock looks fully valued on discounted cash‑flow assumptions. [33]
Broadly, the consensus is that Walmart is a high‑quality compounder with clear growth drivers, but one that may already be priced for consistent execution.
Street forecasts for 2026 and beyond
Looking into 2026, the picture that emerges from earnings guidance and third‑party research is one of steady, not explosive, growth:
- Following its fiscal 2025 results, Walmart guided to 3–4% net sales growth and 3.5–5.5% operating income growth for fiscal 2026, as it invests 3–3.5% of sales into capex – much of it for technology, automation and store remodels. [34]
- Zacks notes that nine analysts have recently revised earnings estimates higher, lifting the fiscal 2026 EPS consensus to about $2.63 per share, and highlighting Walmart’s strong momentum and positive “Style Scores” for growth and momentum factors. [35]
- A suite of Motley Fool articles, including “Walmart Will Make Stock Market History on Dec. 9 — and It Can Top This Feat in 2026” and “Where Will Walmart Stock Be in 5 Years?”, argue that scaling Walmart+ membership, advertising and marketplace services could push Walmart toward – and potentially beyond – the $1 trillion market‑cap milestone in the coming years, albeit with market‑like mid‑single‑digit revenue growth. [36]
Put simply, the Street is modeling moderate top‑line growth, modest margin expansion and high‑single‑digit EPS growth, with upside tied to faster‑than‑expected expansion of high‑margin businesses or more aggressive share repurchases.
Key risks to the Walmart stock story
Even fans of WMT flag notable risks investors should monitor:
- Valuation risk: At ~40x earnings, any stumble in earnings growth, holiday performance or international execution could trigger a meaningful derating. [37]
- Consumer pressure: Walmart’s own executives and external surveys highlight ongoing pressure on lower‑income households, even as higher‑income shoppers trade down. A weaker labor market or renewed inflation shock could hurt discretionary spending. [38]
- Tariffs and geopolitics: Research on Walmart’s fiscal 2026 strategy and broader retail sector coverage points to tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty as ongoing sources of input‑cost and supply‑chain volatility. [39]
- Competitive intensity: Amazon, Target, Costco, dollar stores and regional grocers are all sharpening their value and convenience propositions, from same‑day delivery to private‑label pricing. Recent “Walmart vs. Costco” and “Walmart vs. Target” comparisons emphasize that both valuation and execution relative to peers will matter in 2026. [40]
What to watch next for WMT
For readers tracking Walmart stock into 2026, several catalysts stand out:
- Holiday results: How Walmart’s record‑fast Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas Eve delivery performance translates into Q4 comps and margins. [41]
- Index impacts: Potential inclusion dynamics in Nasdaq‑weighted indexes and the scale of passive flows after the listing transfer. [42]
- Leadership handoff: Investor reaction to John Furner’s first year as CEO and any strategic refinements he introduces. [43]
- Next earnings date: Walmart’s next scheduled earnings report in February 2026 will give the first full read‑through on holiday 2025 and updated guidance. [44]
Bottom line: Walmart stock after the Nasdaq debut
On December 9, 2025, Walmart’s move to the Nasdaq neatly symbolizes what investors have been rewarding all year: a massive, defensive retailer that is increasingly powered by software, data and logistics technology.
- The bull case rests on durable sales growth, expanding high‑margin revenue streams (ads, membership, marketplace, data) and continued operational efficiencies from AI and automation – all backed by strong cash flow and a long dividend track record. [45]
- The bear (or cautious) case centers on valuation, macro risk and the possibility that Walmart’s growth profile simply doesn’t merit a tech‑style multiple over the long run. [46]
For now, the market is clearly giving Walmart the benefit of the doubt. Whether WMT can sustain that premium will depend on how well it executes the next phases of its transformation – and how much of that execution was already reflected in the price on this historic first day of trading on the Nasdaq.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. simplywall.st, 5. finviz.com, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. www.businesswire.com, 8. www.wsj.com, 9. www.barrons.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. corporate.walmart.com, 12. www.fxstreet.com, 13. www.wsj.com, 14. www.constellationr.com, 15. www.constellationr.com, 16. www.constellationr.com, 17. finviz.com, 18. markets.ft.com, 19. www.businessinsider.com, 20. www.investopedia.com, 21. www.investopedia.com, 22. finviz.com, 23. corporate.walmart.com, 24. www.stocktitan.net, 25. public.com, 26. corporate.walmart.com, 27. corporate.walmart.com, 28. www.businessinsider.com, 29. stockanalysis.com, 30. public.com, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. www.wsj.com, 33. simplywall.st, 34. www.constellationr.com, 35. finviz.com, 36. www.sharewise.com, 37. www.wsj.com, 38. finviz.com, 39. www.constellationr.com, 40. www.fool.com, 41. www.businesswire.com, 42. www.wsj.com, 43. corporate.walmart.com, 44. public.com, 45. www.constellationr.com, 46. www.wsj.com
