Published: December 11, 2025
Walmart Inc. (ticker now: Nasdaq: WMT) is ending 2025 in rarefied air. The world’s largest retailer just:
- Delivered another earnings beat in Q3 FY26 and raised full‑year guidance. [1]
- Announced and then completed a historic move from the NYSE to Nasdaq. [2]
- Confirmed a CEO transition, with long‑time leader Doug McMillon stepping down and U.S. chief John Furner taking over in February 2026. [3]
Investors have rewarded that momentum. Depending on the data source, Walmart stock is up roughly 25% year‑to‑date in 2025, outpacing the broader consumer‑staples sector. [4]
Here’s a deep dive into what’s changed since November 21, 2025, and what the latest news, forecasts and analyses suggest for Walmart stock heading into 2026.
Walmart stock today: price, valuation and performance
As of the close on December 10, 2025, Walmart shares traded around $113 with a 52‑week range of roughly $79.81 to $116.27 and a market capitalization near $900 billion. [5]
Key snapshot (approximate):
- Share price: $113.18
- Forward dividend: about $0.94 per share, implying a ~0.8% yield at current prices. [6]
- Trailing P/E ratio: ~39.6x. [7]
- Analyst 12‑month price target (consensus): around $119–$120 per share, implying mid‑single‑digit upside from here. [8]
For context, the S&P 500 consumer staples sector trades at about 21–22x forward earnings, meaning Walmart now commands a significant premium to its defensive‑sector peers. [9]
That valuation premium rests on three pillars that have become clearer since late November:
- Strong and increasingly tech‑powered top‑line growth.
- Rising earnings guidance into FY2026.
- A narrative shift – amplified by the Nasdaq move – that Walmart is evolving into a “people‑led, tech‑powered” platform rather than just a discount chain. [10]
Q3 FY26: another beat, led by e‑commerce and advertising
On November 20, 2025, Walmart reported results for Q3 FY26 (quarter ended October 31). The numbers were better than Wall Street expected and set the tone for the stock’s jump on November 21. [11]
Headline results
- Revenue: $179.5 billion, up 5.8% year‑over‑year (6.0% in constant currency). [12]
- GAAP EPS: $0.77
- Adjusted EPS: $0.62 vs. consensus around $0.60. [13]
- Adjusted operating income: up 8% in constant currency, despite a non‑cash share‑based compensation charge at PhonePe that depressed GAAP operating income slightly. [14]
Beneath the surface, the mix of growth is what impressed analysts:
- Global e‑commerce sales jumped 27%, with each of Walmart’s three segments (U.S., International, Sam’s Club) growing online sales more than 20%. [15]
- Global advertising revenue surged 53%, helped by Walmart Connect in the U.S. and newly consolidated Vizio advertising assets. [16]
- Membership and other income grew 9%, including ~17% growth in membership income, which tends to be high‑margin and recurring. [17]
Segment highlights
- Walmart U.S.
- Walmart International
- Sam’s Club U.S.
- Net sales up 3.1% (4.4% ex‑fuel).
- Comp sales (ex‑fuel): +3.8%, with 22% e‑commerce growth and solid membership gains. [22]
Taken together, Q3 underscored that Walmart’s growth is no longer just about selling more groceries. It’s increasingly about high‑margin ecosystems: marketplaces, digital advertising, memberships and financial services layered on top of its store base.
Raised FY2026 outlook and fresh Q4 guidance
Alongside Q3 results, Walmart raised its full‑year FY2026 guidance for the second time in 2025. [23]
For FY2026 (year ending January 31, 2026), the company now expects:
- Net sales growth:4.8%–5.1% in constant currency (up from a prior 3.75%–4.75% range). [24]
- Adjusted operating income growth:4.8%–5.5% in constant currency. [25]
- Adjusted EPS:$2.58–$2.63, including a small foreign‑exchange headwind, versus a prior range of $2.52–$2.62. [26]
- Capital expenditure: roughly 3.5% of net sales, reflecting ongoing spending on automation, technology and supply chain. [27]
On November 21, 2025, MarketBeat highlighted that Walmart also issued Q4 FY2026 guidance for: [28]
- EPS of $0.67–$0.72 (vs. consensus at the high end of that range).
- Revenue of $187.7–$189.5 billion, bracketing analyst expectations.
The same piece noted that Walmart’s stock jumped about 6–6.5% following the earnings release and guidance, opening around $107 and pushing the company’s market cap into the mid‑$800 billion range at that time. [29]
A “K‑shaped” consumer and a record holiday kick‑off
The Q3 report and management commentary painted a nuanced picture of the U.S. consumer heading into the holidays:
- U.S. comparable sales (store + online) rose 4.5%, beating expectations around 3.8%.
- Online sales in the U.S. surged 28%, driven largely by grocery orders and ultra‑fast delivery. [30]
- Wealthier households, in particular, are leaning into Walmart’s convenience and value proposition, while spending among lower‑income shoppers is moderating under inflation, tariffs and a softer job market. [31]
That “two‑track” consumer showed up again over the big shopping weekend:
- In a December 2 press release, Walmart said Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2025 were its “biggest, fastest” ever, with millions of customers shopping across stores, online and the app. The company highlighted lightning‑fast delivery, with the fastest order fulfilled in just 10 minutes, and strong demand for marquee brands from Barbie to Apple. [32]
- Walmart’s fast‑delivery network delivered 57% more orders from stores on Black Friday versus last year, with 44% more orders arriving in under three hours. [33]
- Early December announcements extended Christmas Eve express delivery cut‑offs and introduced a “Get it Now” feature for one‑tap ordering and delivery ETAs inside the Walmart app, signalling confidence in the company’s logistics and automation investments. [34]
Industry‑wide data from Adobe and others suggests record U.S. online spending over Cyber Monday and the broader Cyber Week, with AI‑powered shopping tools playing a growing role in product discovery and price comparison – an area where Walmart has been leaning in with tools like Sparky and its integrations with platforms such as ChatGPT. [35]
Nasdaq switch: reframing Walmart as a tech‑powered platform
Walmart’s decision to transfer its stock listing from the New York Stock Exchange to Nasdaq, effective December 9, 2025, is about more than a new ticker venue. [36]
Key points:
- The move represents the largest exchange transfer by market value in history, with Walmart valued above $800–900 billion at the time of the announcement, according to Reuters and the Financial Times. [37]
- Walmart’s ticker remains “WMT”, but the Nasdaq listing aligns it with tech‑heavy peers and could increase its presence in tech‑focused indices and ETFs, potentially bringing incremental passive inflows. [38]
- Executives emphasized that more than 40% of Walmart’s new software code is now AI‑generated or AI‑assisted, and over 60% of U.S. freight moves through automated distribution centers, with more than half of online orders fulfilled in automated facilities. [39]
A Barron’s analysis framed the Nasdaq debut as sealing Walmart’s “tech transformation”, highlighting robotics, AI, cloud infrastructure and digital platforms like Walmart+ and its advertising business as key growth engines.
For investors, the practical takeaway is that Walmart is increasingly being valued not only as a defensive retailer but as a scaled, data‑rich commerce and advertising platform.
Leadership transition: John Furner steps in as CEO
On November 14, 2025, Walmart announced that John Furner, currently President and CEO of Walmart U.S., will become President and CEO of Walmart Inc. effective February 1, 2026. Current CEO Doug McMillon will retire on January 31 but stay on the board through the next annual meeting to support the transition. [40]
Highlights of the transition:
- McMillon has been CEO since 2014 and spent over 40 years at Walmart, overseeing its pivot into omnichannel retail and major investments in e‑commerce, automation and wages. [41]
- Furner is a 30‑year company veteran, having started as an hourly associate and held senior roles including CEO of Sam’s Club before taking over the U.S. business in 2019. [42]
- Analysts generally view the move as evolution, not revolution: a continuity pick designed to keep Walmart’s tech‑heavy, omnichannel strategy on track. [43]
Short term, any CEO change at a $900‑billion company injects some uncertainty, particularly around capital allocation, acquisitions and the pace of international expansion. But Furner’s deep operational experience and long tenure lower the odds of a sharp strategic pivot.
What Wall Street is saying: ratings and price targets
Since the November earnings release and guidance, analysts have been busy updating models and targets.
Consensus view
MarketBeat and other aggregators show 30–31 Buy ratings and just 1 Hold, with Walmart carrying an overall “Moderate Buy” consensus and a 12‑month price target in the mid‑$110s to high‑$110s depending on the dataset. [44]
Yahoo Finance lists a 1‑year target estimate of about $119.45, broadly in line with MarketBeat’s average target around $119.31, implying roughly 5–6% upside from current levels near $113. [45]
Recent high‑profile calls (since November 21, 2025)
- BMO Capital reiterated an Outperform rating and $125 price target after meetings with Walmart’s investor relations team, focusing on AI, e‑commerce profitability, advertising, marketplace growth and widening price gaps vs. competitors. [46]
- RBC Capital raised its target to $123, citing Walmart’s “flywheel” business model and expectation of consistent market share gains and double‑digit EPS growth over the coming years. [47]
- TD Cowen lifted its target to $136, highlighting Walmart’s unmatched store footprint and ability to offer fast, convenient delivery as durable competitive advantages. [48]
- UBS maintained a Buy rating with a $122 target, and Tigress Financial raised its target to $130, both leaning heavily on Walmart’s technology and AI investments as future margin and revenue drivers. [49]
Zacks, meanwhile, notes that Walmart shares are up around 25% in 2025, supported by broad‑based sales growth and a 27% Q3 e‑commerce surge, and frames the key question as how much room is left for further multiple expansion in 2026. [50]
Strategic growth drivers heading into 2026
Across corporate filings, press releases and analyst notes, several themes keep coming up as Walmart’s core growth engines:
- E‑commerce and marketplace scale
- Double‑digit online growth in all segments, with store‑fulfilled pickup and delivery acting as a key differentiator versus pure‑play e‑commerce rivals. [51]
- Expansion of Walmart Marketplace, enabling third‑party sellers to leverage Walmart’s logistics and traffic while boosting the company’s take‑rate and advertising opportunities. [52]
- Advertising and data‑driven services
- Automation, AI and supply‑chain efficiency
- Heavy investment in robotics, AI‑generated code and automated distribution centers has already pushed more than 60% of freight through automated facilities, supporting faster delivery and lower per‑unit cost. [55]
- Tools like AI‑assisted catalog management and conversational shopping (including partnerships with OpenAI‑powered experiences) are intended to improve conversion and basket size. [56]
- Vertical integration and private label
- Walmart recently opened a second owned milk processing facility in Valdosta, Georgia, a $350 million investment expected to create 400+ jobs and support its Great Value and Sam’s Club brands. [57]
- Moves like this are designed to secure supply, manage input costs and enhance the economics of private‑label offerings.
- International growth, especially in India and Mexico
- Strong double‑digit constant‑currency growth at Flipkart and Walmex underscores Walmart’s ability to leverage its playbook in higher‑growth markets. [58]
If these engines continue to fire, the bullish analyst math (high single‑digit revenue growth plus modest margin expansion) can justify Walmart’s premium multiple. But execution is critical.
Key risks and valuation considerations
Even with all the positives, investors following Walmart stock after November 21 should keep several risk factors in mind:
- Rich valuation vs. peers
- With a P/E around 39–40x versus ~21–22x for the broader consumer‑staples sector, Walmart is priced for continued outperformance. [59]
- Any slowdown in comp sales, misstep in execution or margin compression could trigger multiple compression.
- Bifurcated consumer and macro headwinds
- Lower‑income households remain under pressure from tariffs, inflation and a cooling job market, even as affluent shoppers drive many of Walmart’s premium and delivery purchases. [60]
- If macro conditions worsen, mix could shift toward lower‑margin baskets or outright demand weakness.
- Execution risk in AI and automation
- Massive tech and automation investments are central to the bull thesis, but returns depend on complex implementation across thousands of stores and fulfillment centers. [61]
- Leadership transition
- While John Furner’s promotion is seen as continuity, any strategic shifts around capital allocation, international M&A or further vertical integration will be scrutinized. [62]
- Regulatory and competitive pressures
- Ongoing antitrust attention on large retailers and platforms, evolving labor regulations and competitive responses from Amazon, Target, Costco and regional grocers remain structural overhangs. [63]
Bottom line: What November 21 and beyond mean for Walmart stock
Since Walmart’s Q3 FY26 report on November 20 and the flurry of news around November 21, 2025, the investment story has crystallized:
- Fundamentals: Solid – revenue and EPS are beating expectations, guidance is trending higher, and high‑margin digital businesses (ads, marketplace, memberships) are scaling. [64]
- Narrative: Strong – the Nasdaq switch and leadership transition reinforce the message that Walmart is a tech‑enabled, AI‑driven retailer with durable competitive advantages in price, reach and logistics. [65]
- Valuation: Demanding – the stock trades near record highs with only mid‑single‑digit upside implied by average 12‑month price targets, even as a handful of bullish firms see room for more. [66]
For long‑term investors, Walmart now looks less like a sleepy defensive staple and more like a hybrid of retailer, logistics network, ad platform and data‑rich tech company. That evolution helps explain why the stock has outperformed in 2024 and 2025 and why analysts generally remain positive – but it also raises the bar for execution in 2026 and beyond.
References
1. corporate.walmart.com, 2. www.businesswire.com, 3. www.businesswire.com, 4. www.zacks.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. finance.yahoo.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. worldperatio.com, 10. corporate.walmart.com, 11. corporate.walmart.com, 12. corporate.walmart.com, 13. corporate.walmart.com, 14. corporate.walmart.com, 15. corporate.walmart.com, 16. corporate.walmart.com, 17. corporate.walmart.com, 18. corporate.walmart.com, 19. corporate.walmart.com, 20. corporate.walmart.com, 21. corporate.walmart.com, 22. corporate.walmart.com, 23. corporate.walmart.com, 24. corporate.walmart.com, 25. corporate.walmart.com, 26. corporate.walmart.com, 27. corporate.walmart.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.businesswire.com, 33. www.streetinsider.com, 34. www.businessinsider.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.businesswire.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.nasdaq.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.businesswire.com, 41. www.businessinsider.com, 42. www.businesswire.com, 43. www.thepacker.com, 44. www.marketbeat.com, 45. finance.yahoo.com, 46. www.investing.com, 47. www.investing.com, 48. www.investing.com, 49. www.investing.com, 50. www.zacks.com, 51. corporate.walmart.com, 52. marketplace.walmart.com, 53. corporate.walmart.com, 54. www.investing.com, 55. www.reuters.com, 56. www.investopedia.com, 57. www.investing.com, 58. corporate.walmart.com, 59. www.marketbeat.com, 60. www.reuters.com, 61. www.reuters.com, 62. www.businesswire.com, 63. www.reuters.com, 64. corporate.walmart.com, 65. www.businesswire.com, 66. www.marketbeat.com
