Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (NASDAQ: WBD) Series A stock ended a wild session on December 10, 2025 right in the blast radius of Hollywood’s biggest takeover drama in years.
Shares closed at $29.53, up 4.49% on the day, after trading between $28.86 and $29.81 on very heavy volume of more than 103 million shares. In after‑hours trading, WBD eased slightly to the high $29s. [1]
That move leaves the stock:
- Just below Paramount Skydance’s $30 per‑share all‑cash hostile bid
- Above the $27.75 per‑share value of Netflix’s agreed cash‑and‑stock offer
— a classic event‑driven setup where investors are pricing the odds of a higher bid, board resistance, or regulatory pushback. [2]
Below is everything that moved WBD after the bell on December 10 and the key catalysts to watch before the U.S. market opens on December 11, 2025.
1. How WBD Traded on December 10, 2025
Price action and volume
- Close: $29.53 (+4.49%)
- Day’s range: $28.86 – $29.81
- Previous close: $28.26
- After-hours (around 5:30 p.m. ET): roughly $29.40–$29.50, down fractionally from the close
- Volume: ~103.4 million shares, far above normal levels, reflecting intense merger arbitrage and retail interest. [3]
Over the past month, WBD has surged almost 23%, as speculation around the company’s auction and now the full‑blown bidding war has intensified. [4]
Valuation snapshot
Despite the takeover frenzy, the underlying fundamentals still matter:
- Market cap: about $73 billion
- Trailing 12‑month revenue (2024): ~$39.3 billion, down about 4.8% year over year
- Net income (2024): a loss of roughly $11.3 billion, reflecting restructuring and past merger hangovers
- EPS (ttm): about $0.19
- P/E ratio: ~152x on trailing earnings, highlighting how thin current profits are relative to the stock price. [5]
Recent quarterly results (reported November 6) missed expectations, with a –$0.06 EPS vs. –$0.04 expected, and revenue of $9.05 billion vs. $9.17 billion consensus, down 6% year over year. [6]
In other words: the fundamental story alone does not explain a stock at $29–30. The price is now largely a referendum on takeover odds and deal terms.
2. The Bidding War: Netflix vs. Paramount Skydance
Netflix’s agreed deal: $27.75 per share, studios + streaming only
On December 5, Netflix announced a blockbuster agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s studio and streaming businesses — essentially the Warner Bros. studios plus HBO/HBO Max and related DTC operations.
Key terms from the Netflix press release and related coverage: [7]
- Consideration:
- $23.25 in cash
- $4.50 in Netflix stock
- Total of $27.75 per WBD share
- Equity value: about $72 billion
- Enterprise value: around $82.7 billion
- The deal is structured to occur after WBD splits into two companies:
- “Warner Bros.” (studios + streaming, which Netflix is buying)
- “Discovery Global” (global linear TV networks and certain sports assets), which would carry much of the legacy cable debt. [8]
The deal has already attracted intense antitrust and labor scrutiny. The Writers Guild of America has urged regulators to block it, arguing that combining the world’s largest streamer with a major studio would concentrate too much power over jobs and content distribution. [9]
A Barchart/Needham analysis highlighted a further risk: that Netflix could be putting tens of billions of dollars of shareholder value at risk by bolting legacy studio operations — vulnerable to AI disruption and cyclical box office swings — onto its asset‑light streaming model. [10]
Netflix has agreed to pay a $5.8 billion reverse break‑up fee if regulators ultimately block the deal, underscoring how serious the regulatory overhang is. [11]
Paramount Skydance’s hostile counter: $30 per share, all cash, whole company
Just days later, Paramount Skydance detonated the process by launching a full hostile tender offer for all of Warner Bros. Discovery.
According to regulatory filings, Reuters, LA Times and Paramount’s own communications: [12]
- Offer price:$30.00 per share in cash for every WBD share
- Headline deal value: about $108–108.4 billion
- Scope: Paramount wants the entire WBD, including CNN and the linear cable assets that Netflix’s deal leaves behind.
- Financing package:
- About $41 billion in new equity, led by the Ellison family and RedBird Capital
- Around $54 billion in bank debt commitments from major lenders
- Roughly $24 billion in equity commitments from sovereign wealth funds in Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Qatar (who have agreed to waive governance/voting rights to reduce CFIUS scrutiny).
On December 10, Paramount escalated again by sending a direct letter to WBD shareholders, arguing that: [13]
- Its all‑cash bid offers “superior value and a faster, more certain path to completion” than Netflix’s partly stock deal.
- Paramount’s higher cash component — roughly $18 billion more cash than Netflix’s structure — is more attractive to investors seeking certainty.
- Its offer avoids creating a combined Netflix–HBO streaming giant with an estimated 43% share of the global subscription streaming market, a key antitrust concern cited by critics of the Netflix deal. [14]
Timeline:
Reporting from the Financial Times and other outlets indicates that: [15]
- WBD’s board is obliged to formally respond to the Paramount tender by December 22, 2025.
- Shareholders have until early January (around January 8) to tender into Paramount’s offer, unless extended.
- Paramount has signaled the $30 bid may not be its final offer, hinting at potential “sweeteners” if the board engages.
That context is critical when looking at tonight’s close: at $29.53, WBD trades at:
- ~1.6% below Paramount’s $30 offer
- ~6.4% above Netflix’s $27.75 deal value
— suggesting the market currently assigns a high probability that shareholders ultimately receive at least Paramount‑level consideration, or that Netflix may need to improve its terms. [16]
3. Washington, National Security and CNN: Political Risk Explodes
Congressional Democrats vs. Gulf‑backed financing
The financing behind Paramount’s bid is drawing fire in Washington. A detailed report from the Los Angeles Times shows that Paramount’s offer is heavily backed by sovereign wealth funds from Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Qatar, which together would contribute about $24 billion, twice the amount being put up by the Ellison family itself. [17]
Two Democratic members of Congress, Rep. Sam Liccardo (D‑CA) and Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D‑MA), sent a letter to WBD CEO David Zaslav on December 10 warning that selling control of a major U.S. media company — including CNN and HBO — to foreign royal families raises “serious national security concerns.” They urged that any Paramount transaction be submitted to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS) for review, even though Paramount has structured the equity so foreign investors officially waive governance rights. [18]
A separate Seeking Alpha summary notes that some members of Congress are pressing Warner Bros. to formally file with CFIUS if it selects a foreign‑backed bid, reinforcing the idea that regulatory risk is not just antitrust‑related but also geopolitical. [19]
Trump’s demand: “CNN should be sold”
Adding more volatility, President Donald Trump weighed in on December 10, telling reporters that “CNN should be sold” either as part of any WBD deal or separately. [20]
Reuters reports that: [21]
- Trump has long criticized CNN and is now explicitly tying his views on the WBD sale to the fate of the network.
- The Netflix deal does not include CNN or other cable networks; those assets are to be spun off into a separate entity.
- Paramount’s offer does cover the entire company, which would effectively put CNN and CBS News under the same corporate umbrella if regulators approve.
That political backdrop heightens uncertainty for investors: regulators, antitrust enforcers and CFIUS are now navigating not only market concentration concerns but also open political pressure from the White House and Congress.
Labor and antitrust opposition
Beyond politics, labor and antitrust advocates are pushing back, particularly against the Netflix transaction:
- The Writers Guild of America (WGA) has called for the Netflix/WBD deal to be blocked, warning that consolidation would reduce job opportunities and bargaining power for creative talent and potentially limit theatrical releases. [22]
- Policy commentators point to WBD’s roughly $53 billion in legacy debt and argue that both prospective deals would load even more debt onto Hollywood, continuing a pattern of highly leveraged mergers that have already left the company in a “constant crisis.” [23]
4. Analysts, Price Targets and Institutional Flows
Wall Street’s view: “Buy” on fundamentals, but targets lag the bid prices
Analyst services are in an awkward spot: fundamental price targets sit well below today’s deal‑inflated trading range.
- Benzinga’s compilation of 29 analyst ratings shows a consensus rating of “Buy” with a consensus price target of $17.55, a high target of $30 (Benchmark, set December 8) and a low of $8 (J.P. Morgan, August 2024). [24]
- The weighted average of the most recent targets from Benchmark, Barrington Research and Wells Fargo is about $26.67, implying roughly 9–10% downside from the current $29+ price based on those purely fundamental models. [25]
- StockAnalysis aggregates 24 analysts and also reports an average 12‑month target around $19.17, roughly 35% below today’s close, while still labeling the consensus rating as “Buy.” [26]
Recent rating actions include: [27]
- Benchmark maintaining a Buy but raising its target from $25 to $30 on December 8, explicitly aligning with the Paramount bid price.
- Barrington Research cutting WBD from Outperform to Market Perform on December 5, just after Netflix won the initial auction.
- Earlier in the autumn, Rothschild & Co. and Argus both upgraded WBD to Buy as restructuring progress and the planned split of Discovery Global improved the story.
Takeaway: Wall Street’s fundamental work still values WBD as a complex, highly leveraged media company, not as a takeout stub. The current tape reflects event‑driven expectations, not traditional DCF math.
Institutional investors are adding exposure
Fresh 13F data summarized by MarketBeat shows that institutions have been quietly building positions: [28]
- Asset manager Ossiam increased its WBD stake by 29.9% in Q2 to just over 155,000 shares.
- Other firms, including Gamco Investors, Jump Financial, Oribel Capital and Cresset, also materially boosted their holdings.
- Institutional and hedge‑fund ownership now sits near 60% of the float.
At the same time, there has been notable insider selling over the last 90 days, with company insiders offloading more than 1.2 million shares worth over $23 million, according to the same filing summary. [29]
Today’s commentary and strategy notes
Key December 10 analysis pieces emphasize:
- Barron’s describes WBD as “at a crossroads”, with investors like Mario Gabelli leaning toward the Paramount bid and expecting a prolonged fight that could run for months. [30]
- A Motley Fool piece, “Paramount’s Hostile Bid Is a Direct Shot at Netflix,” frames Paramount’s move as both a bid to leapfrog rivals in streaming and a direct challenge to Netflix’s M&A strategy, with implications for all three stocks (WBD, NFLX, PSKY). [31]
- A Benzinga opinion article notes that WBD shareholders are getting “more than just acquisition drama” as the stock’s strength is also tied to technical and cyclical factors — but acknowledges that the takeover narrative is the main driver right now. [32]
5. Macro Backdrop: Fed Cut Helps Risk Assets
Away from Hollywood, the broader U.S. market tone turned more supportive for risk and leveraged deals on December 10:
- The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as widely expected.
- The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all closed higher (about +1.05%, +0.67% and +0.33% respectively), with the small‑cap Russell 2000 posting an even stronger gain. [33]
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that while further near‑term cuts aren’t guaranteed, the central bank is watching a softening labor market and doesn’t want policy to undermine job creation, which markets interpreted as leaving the door open for more easing next year. [34]
Lower rates reduce the effective cost of the massive bank financing both Netflix and Paramount will need to close their deals, even if lenders remain cautious about loading more debt onto an already leveraged media ecosystem. [35]
6. What to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 11, 2025
Here are the key questions likely to shape WBD’s pre‑market session and early trading on December 11:
1. Overnight headlines on the bidding war
- Any response from WBD’s board to Paramount’s December 10 shareholder letter will be closely watched. Even a brief statement reaffirming the Netflix deal, or hinting at openness to talks, could move the stock. [36]
- Look for fresh reporting on whether Netflix is considering sweetening its offer, especially if major shareholders publicly voice support for Paramount’s $30 bid. [37]
2. Pre‑market price relative to the $27.75 and $30 “goal posts”
When U.S. equity futures open:
- Watch where pre‑market WBD trades relative to $30.
- Trading above $30 would suggest investors are betting on an even higher bid or a multi‑round bidding war.
- Trading meaningfully below $28 would indicate rising doubt over either deal closing on current terms.
- Keep an eye on NFLX and PSKY in tandem, as arbitrage desks trade the spread between the three names based on perceived probabilities. [38]
3. Regulatory and political developments
- Any new comments from the White House, DOJ, FTC, or CFIUS‑connected officials on media consolidation or foreign‑backed deals could shift perceived odds of approval. [39]
- Additional letters or press conferences from members of Congress — especially concerning CNN’s ownership or Gulf state investors — could fuel pre‑market volatility. [40]
4. Activism and shareholder rights campaigns
- Law firms and shareholder‑rights specialists have already begun soliciting WBD investors about potential fiduciary breaches and whether the board ran a fair auction. Expect more press releases and class‑action style announcements, which can affect sentiment even if they don’t immediately change the deal math. [41]
5. Broader risk sentiment
- After the Fed cut, see whether futures on the major U.S. indices are pointing to a risk‑on or risk‑off open. WBD’s event‑driven story is highly idiosyncratic, but a sharp swing in the broader market — particularly in high‑beta communication services names — can still amplify its moves. [42]
7. Key Risks for WBD Shareholders
Regardless of which way the bidding war leans, WBD investors should remain mindful of several major risks:
- Regulatory risk (antitrust + CFIUS)
- Both deals face serious antitrust questions, especially the Netflix tie‑up, which would consolidate a huge share of streaming subscribers and content libraries under one roof. [43]
- Paramount’s heavy reliance on foreign sovereign wealth funds invites CFIUS scrutiny and national security concerns over control of CNN, HBO and other influential media assets. [44]
- Financing and leverage risk
- Paramount’s bid requires tens of billions in new bank loans and equity, and some funding partners (like Tencent) have already walked away to avoid U.S. security issues. [45]
- Netflix, meanwhile, plans to fund its deal with a large new debt package, adding leverage at a time when investors are already wary of its capital intensity. [46]
- Deal‑failure scenario
- If both deals were blocked or withdrawn, WBD’s share price could re‑rate back toward fundamental targets in the high teens or low 20s, based on current analyst estimates and recent earnings trends. [47]
- Execution risk if a merger succeeds
- For Netflix, integrating Warner’s studios and HBO while maintaining its tech‑first, global platform strategy is a massive operational challenge.
- For Paramount, merging two legacy studio/cable empires while managing political expectations around CNN and Gulf financing could be equally complex. [48]
Bottom Line
As of the close on December 10, 2025, Warner Bros. Discovery stock is trading less like a traditional media company and more like a live option on a historic Hollywood merger.
- The Netflix deal sets a floor around $27.75 per share, but faces antitrust and labor headwinds.
- The Paramount Skydance hostile bid at $30 cash sets a higher bar and introduces national‑security and political complications.
- Analysts’ fundamental price targets, clustered in the high‑teens to mid‑20s, have been eclipsed by takeover math — but they still matter if the deals stumble. [49]
Heading into the December 11 open, the market will focus on board responses, any sign of a counter‑bid, and fresh signals from regulators and politicians. Until there is more clarity, WBD is likely to remain volatile, driven more by headline risk and deal odds than by quarterly earnings.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.barchart.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.chartmill.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. ir.netflix.net, 8. en.wikipedia.org, 9. en.wikipedia.org, 10. www.barchart.com, 11. www.barchart.com, 12. www.stocktitan.net, 13. www.stocktitan.net, 14. www.barchart.com, 15. www.ft.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. www.latimes.com, 18. www.latimes.com, 19. seekingalpha.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. en.wikipedia.org, 23. prospect.org, 24. www.benzinga.com, 25. www.benzinga.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. stocksguide.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.barrons.com, 31. www.fool.com, 32. www.benzinga.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.stocktitan.net, 37. www.barrons.com, 38. www.barchart.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.latimes.com, 41. stockanalysis.com, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. en.wikipedia.org, 44. www.latimes.com, 45. apnews.com, 46. www.alphaspread.com, 47. www.benzinga.com, 48. www.barchart.com, 49. www.benzinga.com
