Updated: December 20, 2025
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. “Series A” stock (NASDAQ: WBD) is no longer trading like a typical media equity. As of this weekend, the share price is behaving more like a deal-driven instrument—pulled between Netflix’s signed cash-and-stock acquisition of WBD’s Streaming & Studios business and Paramount Skydance’s hostile all-cash bid for the entire company. [1]
For investors, the question isn’t just “Is WBD undervalued?” It’s: Which transaction path is most likely to close—and what is each path really worth after fees, timing, and risk? Here’s the full, up-to-date picture as of December 20, 2025, including the key headlines, the deal math, and the latest forecasts and analyst targets shaping expectations.
WBD stock price right now: why it’s hovering near the Netflix deal price
Because today is Saturday, U.S. markets are closed. WBD’s most recent close (Friday, Dec. 19, 2025) is hovering around $27.77—notably close to the $27.75 per share value specified in Netflix’s agreement. [2]
That “pinning” effect is typical in high-profile M&A situations: once a binding deal is signed, the target’s stock often trades in a band around the implied deal value, discounted for time-to-close and the risk the deal breaks.
One more signal that WBD is currently “deal trading”: volume has surged amid the takeover battle. Technical trackers noted exceptionally heavy recent turnover, consistent with arbitrage funds and event-driven investors crowding into the name. [3]
The biggest WBD stock news driving markets this week
1) Netflix’s signed deal: $72B equity value, $82.7B enterprise value, and a Discovery Global separation first
Netflix and WBD announced a transaction structure that’s unusually specific—and central to where WBD stock could settle.
Key terms (from Netflix’s investor release):
- Each WBD shareholder would receive $23.25 in cash + $4.50 in Netflix stock per WBD share at closing. [4]
- Implied value: $27.75 per WBD share, about $72.0B equity value and about $82.7B enterprise value. [5]
- WBD’s previously announced plan to separate Streaming & Studios and Global Networks is expected to complete in Q3 2026, before the Netflix transaction closes. [6]
- The spun entity (Netflix calls it Discovery Global) would include major linear/network assets (including brands such as CNN and TNT Sports in the U.S.) and other international/network properties. [7]
- Expected closing window: 12–18 months, subject to regulatory approvals and WBD shareholder approval. [8]
Netflix has also framed the acquisition as a way to expand its content and franchise portfolio (including marquee WBD IP), while projecting $2–$3 billion of annual cost savings by year three and EPS accretion by year two. [9]
2) Paramount Skydance’s hostile bid: $30 per share all-cash—and a boardroom brawl over financing certainty
Paramount Skydance went directly at WBD with a hostile bid valued at $30 per share (all-cash), widely reported as roughly $108.4 billion in enterprise value. [10]
But on December 17, WBD’s board publicly rejected Paramount’s approach, calling the offer “inferior” and criticizing its financing structure and assurances—especially the reliance on a revocable trust framework and the conditional nature of the offer versus Netflix’s binding merger agreement. [11]
Reuters also reported that WBD’s chair said the shareholder vote for the Netflix deal is expected in spring or early summer (2026), even as Paramount tries to win support via the tender route. [12]
3) Netflix says it’s not blinking—and highlights the YouTube “share of time” battle
On December 15, Reuters reported Netflix reaffirmed that its position on the WBD deal is unchanged despite Paramount’s hostile bid. Netflix leadership also emphasized the intent to continue theatrical releases—an important point for Hollywood stakeholders—and argued the deal is necessary to compete with YouTube’s scale and engagement. [13]
4) A political-financial twist: Affinity Partners (Kushner) exits Paramount’s bid
A notable development: Affinity Partners, the firm run by Jared Kushner, withdrew support for Paramount’s hostile bid, according to the Associated Press. Reuters also referenced this shift when covering the board rejection. [14]
Whether or not this changes Paramount’s ability to improve its offer, it adds to the headline risk—and reinforces why the market is discounting the higher $30 cash number.
5) What happens to WBD’s networks? A new buyer/investor is circling
Reuters reported that Standard General is in discussions to buy or invest in WBD’s television networks—an important subplot because Netflix’s deal is designed to acquire Streaming & Studios after the networks are separated. [15]
If credible capital lines up for the networks business (Discovery Global), it could influence how investors value the “stub” that WBD shareholders would own outside of Netflix’s acquisition.
The deal math that explains WBD’s “discount” to Paramount’s $30 bid
If Paramount is offering $30 cash, why isn’t WBD trading at—or at least much closer to—$30?
Because investors are factoring in three major “haircuts”:
A) Paramount’s offer is not the same as a signed merger agreement
WBD has argued (in shareholder communications and filings) that Paramount’s tender structure can be amended or terminated and carries meaningful execution risk compared with Netflix’s signed agreement. [16]
B) Switching away from Netflix carries real costs—immediately
WBD’s 14D-9 filing lays out concrete costs tied to walking away from Netflix for a rival deal path, including:
- A $2.8B termination fee payable to Netflix in specified scenarios, and
- Approximately $1.5B in financing costs if WBD can’t execute a planned debt exchange under the constraints of a competing transaction. [17]
Together, that’s about $4.3B, described as roughly $1.66 per share of value at risk in the “wrong-way” scenario. [18]
This matters for investors doing “deal spread” math: a nominal $30 bid may be worth meaningfully less on a risk-adjusted basis once you consider costs, timing, and the probability of non-completion.
C) Time-to-close and regulatory scrutiny are central—and both sides acknowledge it
Netflix says the deal should close in 12–18 months and is already preparing for regulatory review. [19]
Paramount argues its approach could face fewer hurdles, but WBD disputes that the regulatory risk difference is material. [20]
The market’s takeaway: even the “winning” path may take time, and the losing path could be costly.
Analyst forecasts and price targets for WBD stock: why the numbers look messy right now
When a stock is in active M&A contention, traditional “12‑month price targets” often lag reality—because they were built for a standalone company, not a takeover arbitrage situation.
Still, here’s what investors are seeing as of Dec. 20:
Deutsche Bank: $29.50 target built explicitly around the Netflix structure
Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $29.50 (Buy), explicitly valuing:
- The Networks spin entity (Discovery Global) at about $2.35 per share, and
- Streaming & Studios at $27.75 per share (Netflix’s agreed price),
then discounting for time-to-close to reach a ~$29.50 target. [21]
This is one of the cleaner “deal-aware” frameworks currently available in public coverage.
MarketBeat consensus: “Moderate Buy,” but an average target below the stock price
MarketBeat lists WBD with a Moderate Buy consensus rating and an average price target around $23.22, which implies downside from current trading levels. [22]
That disconnect is a classic sign that much of the dataset behind the consensus may be pre-deal or not fully adjusted for M&A probabilities and the separation mechanics.
TradingView: price target near the market, with a wide range
TradingView displays an analyst price target around $27.23, with a max estimate of $35 and min estimate of $20. [23]
The takeaway on forecasts
Right now, WBD’s “forecast” is less about subscriber trends and ad cycles—and more about:
- Which bid prevails,
- What regulators require, and
- How the Discovery Global separation is valued by the market once details and potential buyers emerge. [24]
What investors should watch next: 5 near-term catalysts for WBD stock
1) The January 8 tender deadline—and whether Paramount extends or sweetens
Multiple reports indicate WBD shareholders have a key decision window around January 8, when Paramount’s current tender timeline comes into focus (with the possibility of extension). [25]
Any revision to price, financing commitments, or fee reimbursements could move the spread quickly.
2) Regulatory posture: “talks” are starting, but remedies could reshape value
Netflix has indicated active engagement with regulators, and the deal’s structure (especially the separation of Discovery Global before closing) appears designed to improve the regulatory story. [26]
For WBD stock, the risk isn’t only “approve or block.” It’s also approve with remedies that change what assets end up where.
3) Discovery Global specifics: debt allocation, distribution terms, and who wants the networks
The Netflix release describes Discovery Global’s asset scope broadly, but investors will be watching future filings for:
- How debt is allocated post-separation
- Whether the networks business attracts strategic or financial buyers (Standard General is one name already reported) [27]
4) The shareholder vote timeline
WBD has not set the vote date yet, but commentary around spring/early summer (2026) has been reported. [28]
5) Netflix stock and the collar mechanics
Because part of the consideration is Netflix stock subject to a collar, major moves in Netflix shares can change the mix (cash vs. share count delivered) and influence the arbitrage spread. [29]
Bottom line: WBD stock is a deal spread, not a normal media stock—at least for now
As of December 20, 2025, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is at the center of one of the most consequential media consolidation fights in years:
- Netflix has a signed deal for Streaming & Studios at $27.75 per share, post-separation, targeting a 12–18 month close. [30]
- Paramount Skydance is pushing a $30 all-cash hostile bid for the entire company, but WBD’s board is actively urging shareholders to reject it—and disputes the certainty of its financing and structure. [31]
- Analysts and the market are effectively pricing WBD as a probability-weighted outcome of those competing paths, net of fees, timing, and regulatory risk. [32]
References
1. ir.netflix.net, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. stockinvest.us, 4. ir.netflix.net, 5. ir.netflix.net, 6. ir.netflix.net, 7. ir.netflix.net, 8. ir.netflix.net, 9. ir.netflix.net, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. apnews.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.sec.gov, 18. www.sec.gov, 19. ir.netflix.net, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.tradingview.com, 24. ir.netflix.net, 25. www.businessinsider.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. ir.netflix.net, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. ir.netflix.net, 30. ir.netflix.net, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.sec.gov
