December 24, 2025 — Waste Management’s rebranded parent, WM (NYSE: WM), is ending 2025 with a familiar mix of defensive appeal and valuation debate—only now the story is getting sharper. On Dec. 24, 2025, fresh disclosures highlighted new institutional accumulation in the stock, while a company retirement-plan trading blackout begins today. At the same time, investors are still digesting WM’s “next chapter”: integrating Stericycle’s medical waste business, defending premium margins in its core operations, and setting up a 2026 capital-return program that includes a planned dividend increase and a $3 billion repurchase authorization. [1]
Below is everything investors are watching—built from today’s developments (Dec. 24) and the most relevant late-December coverage shaping sentiment into year-end.
Today’s WM headlines at a glance
1) Institutional investors disclosed sizable stake increases
Two separate updates published today point to notable institutional activity based on recent SEC filings:
- Vontobel Holding Ltd. reported a major position increase in WM during Q3, adding 1,800,728 shares to hold 2,206,026 shares in total (valued around $487 million in the disclosure cited), representing roughly 0.55% of WM. [2]
- Swedbank AB reported increasing its WM position by 100,686 shares in Q3, holding 1,955,591 shares (valued around $432 million), representing about 0.49% of WM. [3]
While these are backward-looking filings, they matter because they reinforce what many market participants already know: WM is a heavily institutional-owned “core holding” for defensive and quality-focused portfolios. (MarketBeat’s compilation places institutional ownership around 80.4%.) [4]
2) A retirement-plan trading blackout begins at 4:00 p.m. ET today
In a Form 8‑K filed earlier (and widely referenced in late-November coverage), WM disclosed that its Retirement Savings Plan is changing recordkeepers effective Jan. 1, 2026, triggering a blackout period that is expected to begin at 4:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 24, 2025 and end during the week of Jan. 18, 2026. [5]
During the blackout, plan participants cannot adjust contributions, reallocate investments (including any WM stock fund exposure), take loans/withdrawals, or receive distributions. The notice also restricts certain trading activity by directors and executive officers in covered circumstances during the blackout. [6]
This is not an earnings catalyst—but it is a real-time governance/compliance headline landing on a thin-liquidity holiday week, and it’s part of why WM is back in finance news feeds today.
The bigger narrative behind the headlines: WM is trying to “earn” its premium again
The reason today’s institutional headlines resonate is that WM shares have spent much of 2025 in a consolidation phase, while investors look for proof that the Stericycle-driven expansion can translate into cleaner execution and faster profit conversion.
A widely circulated investor note this week summed it up bluntly: headlines aren’t enough—investors want to see higher profits. [7]
That tension—defensive stability versus premium valuation—defines WM’s late-December setup.
Stericycle integration: the opportunity expanded, and so did operational complexity
WM’s strategic “next chapter” is closely tied to its Stericycle deal, which brought in medical waste and secure information destruction operations. Commentary circulating into year-end emphasizes that the market is now grading WM on execution, not ambition.
Recent coverage pointed to a quarter where:
- Revenue came in at $6.44 billion, up about 14% year-over-year, but below analyst expectations of $6.51 billion. [8]
- EPS missed estimates (a $0.03 gap was cited versus expectations), even as EPS was slightly higher than the year-ago quarter. [9]
Yet the same reporting highlighted what long-term WM holders tend to love:
- Operating EBITDA up more than 15%
- Free cash flow up ~33%, with management forecasting roughly $3.8 billion of free cash flow for 2026 [10]
And critically, WM’s core engine kept humming:
- The collection and disposal business posted record margin expansion to 38.4%, attributed to price-to-cost discipline and fleet/maintenance efficiencies. [11]
Where the integration story gets complicated is the healthcare side. WM flagged that WM Healthcare Solutions was tracking below initial expectations, citing items like deferred pricing actions, customer credits, and ERP-related challenges. [12]
That is the near-term “prove it” zone for 2026: if the healthcare revenue cadence steadies and systems issues normalize, the market has an easier time underwriting a higher growth phase. If not, WM can remain stuck in range—still a quality business, but with less enthusiasm for paying a top multiple.
Dividend and buybacks: WM’s 2026 capital return plan is now the centerpiece
WM’s most shareholder-friendly headline entering 2026 is the scale and clarity of its capital return program.
In a Dec. 15, 2025 announcement, WM said its board approved:
- A planned 14.5% increase in the 2026 dividend rate
- A new $3 billion share repurchase authorization, superseding remaining authority under a prior authorization [13]
The company outlined a planned quarterly dividend rate of $0.945 per share in 2026, up from $0.825 in 2025—lifting the annualized dividend to $3.78 per share and marking the 23rd consecutive year of dividend increases. [14]
WM also framed 2026 as a “harvest” period following years of investment—particularly in recycling and renewable energy—and said it expects to be positioned to return approximately 90% of 2026 free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and repurchases, while still pursuing organic growth and $100–$200 million in tuck-in acquisitions. [15]
Balance sheet and timing details matter here:
- WM expects to finish 2025 with leverage around 3.1x, after reducing debt by $1 billion during the year. [16]
- WM anticipates resuming share repurchases after announcing Q4 2025 results, and plans to repurchase approximately $2 billion of shares during 2026, while targeting leverage back toward a 2.5x–3.0x range during 2026. [17]
- The first increased dividend is expected to be paid in March 2026 (subject to the board declaring each dividend). [18]
For investors, the message is simple: WM is trying to turn cash flow predictability into a more aggressive shareholder-return profile—which can matter a lot in a market where “steady compounders” are often judged by how efficiently they recycle capital back to owners.
What happens next: key dates investors should circle
WM has already put the first major 2026 catalyst on the calendar:
- WM will release Q4 and full-year 2025 results after market close on Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026
- The investor webcast is scheduled for Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET [19]
That earnings event also matters because WM has linked buyback resumption timing to the post-results period. [20]
Valuation: DCF says “maybe undervalued,” multiples say “still expensive”
WM’s valuation discussion is unusually active right now because different frameworks produce very different conclusions.
A DCF-based take: modest discount to modeled fair value
A recent discounted cash flow (DCF) model published in late December estimated a fair value around $242.89 per share versus a market price around $218, implying WM traded at roughly a 10% discount at the time of that analysis. [21]
The same analysis noted the model is sensitive to assumptions (discount rate, terminal growth, cash flow path), but the takeaway is that WM may not be “blow-off-top expensive” in every valuation framework—even after multi-year strength. [22]
The multiple-based reality: WM still trades like a premium operator
At the same time, the multiple lens remains the counterweight. Late-December commentary described WM trading around 34x earnings, with forward expectations nearer 28x—a premium that is often tolerated only if execution stays clean. [23]
Another valuation snapshot compared WM’s P/E near 34.3x to an industry average around 23.8x, underscoring why some investors continue to treat WM as “high quality, but priced for it.” [24]
The practical interpretation: WM can look “fair” to investors who anchor on long-duration cash flows and market structure advantages—but it can still look “overpriced” to investors who anchor on near-term multiple compression risk, especially if integration is bumpy.
Technical setup: consolidation story vs. a bearish trade idea
WM’s chart is also being read in two very different ways.
The consolidation view: range-bound, not broken
A technical read circulating this week characterized WM as in consolidation after its strong 2023–2024 run, with:
- Overhead resistance around $235–$245
- The 50-week moving average near $224 as an inflection marker
- Support around $205–$210 as the area bulls want to hold [25]
This view doesn’t assume a collapse—more a “prove it” range while investors wait for healthcare integration and 2026 buybacks to show up in reported performance.
The bearish trade setup: a short signal with defined levels
By contrast, a Dec. 23 technical analysis proposed a short trade built around the risk of a breakdown near a key support zone (described as around $211.71), including specific entry and risk parameters:
- Suggested short entries in ranges roughly $211.71–$219.48
- Take-profit zones around $188.29–$194.11
- Stop-loss guidance above the $222.46–$229.50 area
- A cited risk/reward of about 2.18 [26]
That same analysis argued WM carried bearish signals including a bearish candlestick pattern, moving-average positioning, and fundamental concerns such as rising debt/capex and valuation pressure. [27]
For most long-term readers, the key is not the trade itself—it’s the message: some market participants believe the downside risk is non-trivial if support fails, even for a defensive name.
What WM investors will watch into early 2026
As the calendar turns, the WM thesis is likely to hinge on five practical questions:
- Does WM Healthcare Solutions stabilize?
Investors will look for cleaner pricing cadence, fewer credits, and smoother back-office/ERP execution as Stericycle integration matures. [28] - Does the core business keep delivering “price-to-cost spread”?
WM’s record margin commentary suggests the model still has pricing power and operational leverage—but markets expect that to persist. [29] - How quickly do buybacks restart—and at what pace?
WM has signaled repurchases resume after Q4 results and outlined a ~$2B 2026 repurchase plan within a broader $3B authorization. [30] - Can WM defend the premium multiple?
If execution is smooth, the market can justify premium valuation. If it’s uneven, the multiple can compress even if the business remains fundamentally solid. [31] - Do technical levels hold in a thin-liquidity period?
With year-end positioning and holiday volumes, price moves can be exaggerated—making the $205–$210 support area and the $235–$245 resistance band especially watched. [32]
Bottom line (Dec. 24, 2025): Today’s WM news flow is less about a single blockbuster headline and more about positioning—institutional ownership signals, a live compliance event (the blackout), and a capital-return plan that could become the defining investor narrative of 2026, provided Stericycle integration friction fades and cash flow stays as predictable as management expects. [33]
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.tradingview.com, 8. www.tradingview.com, 9. www.tradingview.com, 10. www.tradingview.com, 11. www.tradingview.com, 12. www.tradingview.com, 13. www.businesswire.com, 14. www.businesswire.com, 15. www.businesswire.com, 16. www.businesswire.com, 17. www.businesswire.com, 18. www.businesswire.com, 19. www.businesswire.com, 20. www.businesswire.com, 21. simplywall.st, 22. simplywall.st, 23. www.tradingview.com, 24. simplywall.st, 25. www.tradingview.com, 26. www.dailyforex.com, 27. www.dailyforex.com, 28. www.tradingview.com, 29. www.tradingview.com, 30. www.businesswire.com, 31. www.tradingview.com, 32. www.tradingview.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com
