Wells Fargo (WFC) Stock Near Record High: AI Job Cuts, $40B Buyback and Regulatory Relief Shape 2025 Outlook

Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) is trading just under record highs around $89–$90 per share as investors digest a fresh wave of news: CEO comments about AI‑driven job cuts, a new Piper Sandler price target of $100, progress on a major $84 million 401(k) settlement, and continuing capital returns via dividends and a $40 billion buyback program. ^[1]

Below is a structured look at what’s new on 9 December 2025, how it fits into the bigger story for Wells Fargo stock, and what analysts currently expect.

Note: This article is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

1. Wells Fargo Stock Today: Price Action and Technical Setup

At midday on December 9, 2025, Wells Fargo shares were trading around $89.8, down slightly on the day but up about 28% year to date, leaving the stock just below recent all‑time highs above $89 reached earlier this month. ^[2]

Recent technical indicators show:

• Strong uptrend: Economies.com notes WFC remains in a medium‑term ascending trend, trading above its prior 50‑day simple moving average and riding a rising trendline. ^[3]
• Overbought momentum: The RSI has reached overbought territory, which has cooled the pace of gains but hasn’t broken the uptrend. ^[4]
• Key levels: Their technical outlook expects the stock to stay bullish as long as it holds above $84.85, with a near‑term resistance target around $95.80 and a “bullish” intraday forecast for today (Dec. 9). ^[5]
• Relative strength upgrade: Investor’s Business Daily recently raised Wells Fargo’s Relative Strength Rating to 81 (out of 99) after the stock broke out above a technical buy point near $83.20, though it now considers the shares extended above that initial range.

In short: technicals remain constructive but stretched, with most short‑term traders watching for either a breakout toward the mid‑$90s or a pullback toward the mid‑$80s support zone.

2. What Changed for Wells Fargo on December 9, 2025?

2.1 CEO Scharf Flags 2026 Job Cuts and AI’s Role

Speaking at Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Financial Services Conference this morning, CEO Charlie Scharf said Wells Fargo expects its workforce to shrink in 2026, even before factoring in the full impact of artificial intelligence. ^[6]

Key takeaways from his remarks (as summarized in Reuters headlines and conference coverage):

• The company has finished its 2026 budgeting process and anticipates headcount will decline next year.
• AI will be “extremely significant” for headcount, but Scharf emphasized it is about changing how tasks are done rather than fully replacing people. ^[7]
• Wells Fargo expects higher severance costs in Q4 2025 as it restructures operations, consistent with prior guidance that fourth‑quarter expenses will include roughly $200 million of severance.
• Management believes the bank is “not as efficient as it should be” and aims to use AI and automation to close that gap. ^[8]

For investors, this reinforces the longer‑term cost‑cutting and efficiency story – but also highlights execution risk around workforce reductions and AI implementation.

2.2 No Rush for Acquisitions; Focus on Organic Growth

At the same conference, Scharf also signaled a disciplined stance on M&A:

• He said Wells Fargo sees “no pressure” to do acquisitions right now.
• Any deal would need “very, very high” hurdle rates and be “very strategic” for shareholders, reflecting a preference for organic growth. ^[9]

This suggests that, at least in the near term, investors should not expect a large transformational acquisition. Instead, management appears focused on improving returns in existing businesses, including pushing deeper into investment banking and wealth management.

2.3 Piper Sandler Lifts Target to $100, Keeps Overweight

Also today, Piper Sandler raised its Wells Fargo price target from $93 to $100 while maintaining an “Overweight” rating. ^[10]

With the stock around $89.8, that new target implies roughly 11% potential upside before including dividends. It also puts Piper Sandler at the top end of current Street targets, joining Bank of America’s earlier $100 target set in October. ^[11]

2.4 401(k) Stock Settlement Moves Forward

In legal news, an $84 million class‑action settlement benefiting Wells Fargo employees has received preliminary court approval, clearing the way to resolve claims over how the bank handled stock dividends in its 401(k) plan. ^[12]

While modest relative to Wells Fargo’s market cap, the settlement:

• Continues the long process of cleaning up legacy conduct issues.
• Reduces legal uncertainty around employee retirement‑plan litigation.

2.5 Innovation Incubator Announces New Cohort

On the ESG and innovation front, Wells Fargo’s Innovation Incubator (IN2) – a $55 million energy‑technology program co‑run with the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Laboratory of the Rockies – announced eight organizations for its second “Scalable Tech” track cohort. ^[13]

The new cohort will go through a six‑month curriculum aimed at accelerating adoption of advanced energy and resiliency solutions across housing, utilities, commercial infrastructure and multifamily real estate. ^[14]

While not immediately material to earnings, this initiative:

• Supports Wells Fargo’s sustainability narrative.
• Helps deepen relationships in real estate, infrastructure and utilities, sectors important for long‑term lending and fee income.

3. Earnings Picture: Q3 Beat and 2025 Guidance

3.1 Q3 2025 Results at a Glance

In October, Wells Fargo reported a strong third quarter, beating Wall Street expectations and formally stepping into its post‑asset‑cap era:

• Net income: ~$5.6 billion, up from about $5.1 billion a year earlier. ^[15]
• EPS: $1.66 vs. consensus around $1.55. ^[16]
• Revenue: ~$21.4 billion, up from $20.4 billion in Q3 2024. ^[17]
• Return on equity (ROE): 12.8%; return on tangible common equity (ROTCE): 15.2%. ^[18]
• Common‑equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio: about 11.0%. ^[19]

The quarter included roughly $296 million of severance charges, reflecting ongoing restructuring. ^[20]

3.2 Raised Profitability Target After Asset‑Cap Removal

Following the Federal Reserve’s removal of the $1.95 trillion asset cap in June, Wells Fargo raised its medium‑term ROTCE target from 15% to 17–18%, signaling confidence that it can extract more earnings from its balance sheet and fee businesses. ^[21]

Reuters notes that:

• Investment‑banking fees jumped 25% in Q3, reaching a quarterly record. ^[22]
• The bank’s total assets surpassed $2 trillion for the first time, driven by the strongest loan growth in more than three years. ^[23]
• Credit quality remains “strong across the board”, with provisions for credit losses down sharply from a year earlier. ^[24]

3.3 Q4 2025 and Full‑Year Guidance

Management’s latest guidance points to:

• Q4 net interest income (NII): expected between $12.4–$12.5 billion, up from $11.8 billion in the same quarter last year. ^[25]
• Full‑year 2025 NII: projected to be roughly in line with 2024, as higher volumes offset the impact of lower rates. ^[26]
• 2025 noninterest expense: about $54.6 billion, with Q4 expenses around $13.5 billion, including roughly $200 million in severance and $200 million in higher revenue‑related compensation, mainly in wealth and investment management. ^[27]

Put simply, Wells Fargo is leaning into growth now that the asset cap is gone, while still working through a large, but increasingly controlled, cost base.

4. Regulatory Overhang: From Crisis to Cleanup

The lingering regulatory hangover from Wells Fargo’s fake‑accounts scandal has been a key overhang on the stock for nearly a decade. 2025 has been a pivotal year in clearing that backlog.

4.1 Consent Orders and Asset Cap: What’s Been Lifted

Key milestones:

• February 2025: The Federal Reserve terminated two enforcement actions with Wells Fargo, related to risk‑management and board oversight issues, marking meaningful progress on supervisory concerns. ^[28]
• April 2025: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) lifted a 2018 consent order tied to compliance risk management. Reuters reported that this was the bank’s twelfth consent order resolved since 2019, with only two remaining at that time. ^[29]
• June 3, 2025: Wells Fargo confirmed that the Federal Reserve removed the asset‑growth limits imposed in its 2018 consent order. The Fed concluded that the bank had met all conditions, including extensive risk and compliance upgrades and a third‑party independent review. ^[30]

By October, Reuters reported that Wells Fargo had closed seven regulatory punishments in 2025 alone and 13 since 2019, leaving one remaining consent order outstanding. ^[31]

4.2 Why This Matters for WFC Stock

The removal of the asset cap and the winding down of consent orders:

• Free Wells Fargo to grow loans and deposits again, a key driver for NII.
• Reduce the risk of unexpected regulatory penalties and capital constraints.
• Help justify a higher valuation multiple, as the bank transitions from “fix‑it mode” to offense and growth.

Investors still need to monitor the last remaining order and any new issues that might arise, but the regulatory narrative is far more positive than it was a few years ago.

5. Dividends, Buybacks and Valuation

5.1 Dividend Profile

Wells Fargo has leaned heavily on capital returns to reward shareholders:

• The board approved a quarterly common dividend of $0.45 per share, paid on December 1, 2025 to shareholders of record on November 7.
• This corresponds to an annualized dividend of $1.80 per share, for a current yield of about 2.0% at the present share price.
• The dividend has been growing: the payout rose from $0.40 to $0.45 this year, with a one‑year dividend growth rate around 13% and a three‑year CAGR near 16%, while keeping the payout ratio modest at roughly 26–28%.

5.2 $40 Billion Share Repurchase Program

On the buyback side:

• In April 2025, Wells Fargo’s board authorized a new $40 billion share‑repurchase program to follow its prior $30 billion authorization.
• In Q3 2025 alone, the bank repurchased 74.6 million shares, returning about $6.1 billion via buybacks, and reducing period‑end shares outstanding by roughly 6% versus a year earlier. ^[32]
• As of September 30, 2025, Zacks reports that Wells Fargo still had about $34.7 billion of repurchase capacity remaining under its authorization. ^[33]

Between dividends (~2%) and buybacks (roughly 7% buyback yield, per several dividend‑tracking sites), Wells Fargo currently delivers a total shareholder yield near 9%, assuming similar capital returns continue. ^[34]

5.3 Valuation vs. Peers

Zacks estimates that WFC trades at about 13x forward earnings, below the big‑bank industry average near 15x, and roughly in line with peers like Bank of America and modestly above Citigroup. ^[35]

Combined with:

• Mid‑teens current ROTCE (15.2% in Q3). ^[36]
• A medium‑term target of 17–18% ROTCE. ^[37]

…many analysts view Wells Fargo as reasonably valued to slightly undervalued relative to its improving profitability prospects.

6. Wall Street Forecasts and Ratings

6.1 Consensus Ratings and Price Targets

Different data providers give slightly different snapshots, but the picture is broadly supportive:

• S&P Capital IQ consensus, as shown on MarketScreener, rates WFC at “Outperform” based on 26 analysts, with an average target price around $93.7, roughly 4% above a recent close near $90. ^[38]
• MarketBeat’s forecast page shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating with a rating score around 2.6 (on a 1–5 scale) and notes that the average 12‑month price target is very close to the current share price, implying little aggregate upside – suggesting many analysts see WFC as near fair value after the recent rally. ^[39]
• Benzinga’s analyst‑ratings summary cites a consensus price target of about $78, with a high of $100 (Bank of America) and a low near $48.8 (Odeon Capital), based on 27 analysts. ^[40]

The dispersion shows that Wall Street is not monolithic: some firms see meaningful upside, others think most of the easy gains are in the rear‑view mirror.

6.2 Recent Upgrades and Target Hikes

In October, following the lifting of the asset cap and the strong Q3 print, several analysts raised their targets: ^[41]

• Bank of America: Target to $100 (Buy).
• Barclays: Target from $87 to $94 (Overweight).
• Truist, TD Cowen, Morgan Stanley, DBS Bank, CFRA also lifted ratings or targets, with multiple firms reiterating positive views.

Today’s Piper Sandler move to $100 adds another bullish voice at the high end of the range. ^[42]

6.3 Earnings Growth Forecasts

According to Zacks, Street estimates currently call for Wells Fargo’s earnings to grow about 16.9% in 2025 and 10.8% in 2026, with estimates for both years revised upward over the past month. ^[43]

If those forecasts prove accurate, WFC would combine:

• High‑single‑ to low‑double‑digit earnings growth,
• A 2% dividend yield, and
• Aggressive share repurchases,

…which together could support continued total‑return potential, even if the valuation multiple stays roughly where it is.

7. Growth and Innovation: Deals and Green Tech

7.1 Netflix’s Mega‑Loan and Investment‑Banking Ambitions

Wells Fargo’s push into investment banking is already showing up in high‑profile deals.

The Financial Times reports that Wells Fargo is leading a $59 billion bridge loan to help Netflix finance its $83 billion takeover of Warner Bros Discovery, the largest such financing ever done by the bank.

This deal:

• Underscores Wells Fargo’s ambitions to be a top‑five U.S. investment bank, as CEO Scharf has repeatedly highlighted. ^[44]
• Continues the trend seen in Q3, when investment‑banking fees rose 25%, bolstered by large M&A mandates. ^[45]

Stronger fee businesses help diversify earnings beyond net interest income and should be supportive for valuation if the bank can sustain momentum without taking undue risk.

7.2 IN2 Innovation Incubator and Energy Tech

The IN2 Innovation Incubator announcement today reinforces Wells Fargo’s positioning around climate and energy‑transition themes:

• The program – funded by Wells Fargo and co‑administered with a DOE national lab – has added a new cohort focused on resiliency in the built environment, including smarter building operations, heating and cooling, and grid reliability. ^[46]

This kind of initiative may:

• Provide deal flow in commercial real estate, utilities and infrastructure.
• Support Wells Fargo’s ESG profile, which matters for many institutional investors and some index inclusion decisions.

8. Risks and What Could Go Wrong

Despite the more optimistic narrative, investors should keep several risks in mind:

1. Rate‑cut environment: Further Federal Reserve rate cuts could pressure net interest margins more than expected, even if loan growth offsets some impact.
2. Credit cycle: While current credit quality is strong, a weaker labor market or recession could lead to higher loan losses, especially in commercial lending. ^[47]
3. Execution on AI and cost cuts: Large‑scale job reductions and automation carry operational, cultural and reputational risks if not handled carefully. ^[48]
4. Residual regulatory risk: One consent order remains, and regulators may continue to scrutinize the bank intensely given its track record. ^[49]
5. Market expectations baked in: With the stock near all‑time highs and many good news items already priced in, any disappointment in earnings, capital returns or credit trends could trigger a pullback.

9. Bottom Line: Is Wells Fargo Stock a Buy, Hold or Wait‑and‑See?

Putting it together:

Bullish factors

• Regulatory cloud mostly cleared, with the Fed asset cap lifted and multiple consent orders terminated. ^[50]
• Earnings momentum, including a recent Q3 beat and double‑digit EPS growth expected for 2025 and 2026. ^[51]
• Capital‑return story: a growing dividend, a $40 billion buyback authorization, and a total shareholder yield near 9%. ^[52]
• Improving efficiency and a clear plan to leverage AI and process automation to further cut costs. ^[53]
• Expansion into investment banking and energy‑tech ecosystems, which can diversify and grow fee income. ^[54]

Caution flags

• The stock is technically extended, trading well above earlier buy points and in overbought territory on RSI. ^[55]
• Some data providers show little consensus upside versus the current price, suggesting a lot of good news is already priced in.
• The scale of planned job cuts and heavy reliance on AI for efficiency gains introduce execution and reputational risks.

For long‑term, dividend‑oriented investors who believe in the continued normalization of Wells Fargo and are comfortable with bank‑sector risk, WFC may still look attractive as a “quality turnaround” with income and buybacks attached – particularly on pullbacks toward technical support levels.

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