Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) Share Price, Dividend Windfall and 2026 Outlook

Updated 1 December 2025

Wesfarmers Limited (ASX:WES) heads into December as one of the most closely watched blue‑chip stocks on the ASX, combining a strong FY25 profit result with a hefty capital management distribution and fully franked dividends. At the same time, most analysts now see the stock as close to fully valued rather than a screaming bargain.

Wesfarmers share price snapshot: strong year, modest implied upside

As of early trading around 1 December 2025, Wesfarmers shares are changing hands at about A$81.9 on the ASX, giving the group a market capitalisation of roughly A$93 billion. ^[1]

Third‑party data providers estimate Wesfarmers’ trailing dividend yield at about 4.35%, based on total cash distributions of roughly A$3.56 per share over the past year. ^[2]

Over calendar 2025, the WES share price has climbed in the mid‑teens — various market commentaries put the year‑to‑date gain around 14–16%, comfortably beating the broader ASX indices. ^[3]

On a 52‑week view, Wesfarmers has traded in a broad range, roughly from the high‑A$60s to the mid‑A$90s, underlining that investors have already rerated the stock substantially since 2023–24. ^[4]

FY25 results: steady revenue, faster profit growth

For the year to 30 June 2025, Wesfarmers delivered a solid, if not spectacular, set of numbers:

Group revenue: A$45.7 billion, up 3.4% year‑on‑year
Statutory NPAT (net profit after tax): about A$2.9 billion, up 14.4%
NPAT excluding significant items: about A$2.7 billion, up 3.8%
Operating cash flow: about A$4.6 billion, down slightly (~0.6%) as tax payments normalised
Ordinary dividend: A$2.06 per share (95c interim + A$1.11 final), up 4% on FY24

These figures come from Wesfarmers’ FY25 full‑year results presentation and annual reporting suite. ^[5]

The big story behind those headline numbers is that Wesfarmers’ core retail businesses — Bunnings and Kmart Group — continued to grow earnings despite a tougher consumer backdrop, while the newer health and lithium‑exposed businesses are still in investment and ramp‑up mode.

Bunnings: still the profit engine

Bunnings Group remains Wesfarmers’ largest division:

Revenue: A$19.6 billion, up 3.3%
EBT (excluding property): ~A$2.34 billion, up 4.0%
Return on capital: an eye‑catching 71.5%

Bunnings delivered store‑on‑store sales growth of around 3.5%, helped by its “lowest price” positioning, broadened ranges and strong growth in digital and marketplace sales, which now account for about 6.5% of sales. ^[6]

Management emphasised investments in AI‑enabled rostering, supply‑chain technology and an in‑house retail media business as key drivers of both productivity and future growth.

Kmart Group: value retailing pays off

Kmart Group (Kmart, Target and related formats) also had a strong year:

Revenue: A$11.43 billion, up 2.9%
EBT: A$1.05 billion, up 9.2%
Return on capital:67.6%

Comparable sales grew about 3%, accelerating in the second half of FY25, as Kmart and Target leaned further into low‑price, own‑brand product and continued to digitise store operations and supply chains. ^[7]

Kmart’s Anko brand has also started to scale internationally through new stores in the Philippines and distribution partnerships with overseas retailers, creating a potentially meaningful long‑term earnings stream beyond Australia and New Zealand. ^[8]

Chemicals, energy, fertilisers and health: more mixed, but strategic

In the Wesfarmers Chemicals, Energy and Fertilisers (WesCEF) division, revenue rose about 7.8% to A$3.0 billion off the back of higher fertiliser sales and spodumene concentrate volumes, but EBIT fell roughly 9% due to lower global commodity prices and early‑stage losses in lithium. ^[9]

The Health division — anchored by Australian Pharmaceutical Industries (API) and the Priceline brands — increased revenue by 5.5% and lifted earnings by around 28%, helped by strong consumer demand in beauty and wellness, partly offset by cost pressures and competitive intensity in wholesale pharmacy distribution. ^[10]

Taken together, these results support the view that Wesfarmers’ earnings base is still heavily driven by Bunnings and Kmart, but with growing optionality in health and lithium over the medium to long term.

A$1.50 per share capital management distribution: how it works

Layered on top of the ordinary dividend, Wesfarmers is returning a substantial amount of surplus capital in December 2025.

In August, the board recommended a A$1.50 per share capital management distribution, comprising: ^[11]

A$1.10 per sharereturn of capital (the “Capital Component”)
A$0.40 per sharefully‑franked special dividend (the “Dividend Component”)

Key mechanics and dates:

The proposal was approved by shareholders at the AGM on 30 October 2025. ^[12]
The record date for entitlement to both components was 6 November 2025 (Perth time). ^[13]
Shares began trading ex‑return of capital and ex‑special dividend on 5 November 2025. ^[14]
Both the capital return and special dividend are scheduled to be paid on 4 December 2025. ^[15]

The total cash outlay is expected to be about A$1.703 billion, of which A$1.249 billion relates to the capital return and A$454 million to the fully franked special dividend. ^[16]

Wesfarmers explains that this initiative is funded from proceeds of several asset sales over FY22–FY25, including its residual stake in Coles, the sale of industrial gases business Coregas and divestment of certain LPG/LNG distribution assets. The board argues that returning this capital will optimise the balance sheet while maintaining investment‑grade credit ratings and headroom for future acquisitions and organic investment. ^[17]

From a shareholder’s perspective, 2025’s total cash haul looks roughly like this, per share:

Ordinary dividends: A$2.06
Capital management distribution: A$1.50
Total cash received (or due) in respect of FY25: ~A$3.56

At the current share price, that implies a trailing cash distribution yield of around 4.3–4.4%, with a significant portion being fully franked dividends. ^[18]

Importantly, the return of capital does not involve any share consolidation; the number of shares on issue remains unchanged, and the capital component primarily reduces the tax cost base for eligible Australian shareholders rather than counting as dividend income. ^[19]

Analyst forecasts: “fairly valued” is the dominant narrative

Despite the attractive cash returns, most broker research and data‑aggregation platforms now place Wesfarmers in the “fully valued to mildly overvalued” bucket at current prices.

Simply Wall St’s widely followed discounted cash flow model estimates Wesfarmers’ “fair value” at around A$81–82 per share, very close to the prevailing market price. Their narrative tags the stock as broadly fairly valued, not a clear bargain. ^[20]
TipRanks, summarising the views of 9 analysts over the past three months, reports an average 12‑month price target of about A$83.8, with a high of roughly A$93 and a low near A$71, implying only ~3% upside from recent prices. ^[21]
Investing.com collates forecasts from 13 analysts and shows an average target around A$80.8, with a high estimate of A$100 and a low of A$58. Interestingly, the site currently lists the consensus rating as “Sell”: 1 Buy, 6 Sell and 6 Hold recommendations. ^[22]
Fintel’s survey of analyst targets is slightly more optimistic, with an average one‑year target of about A$84.9, ranging from roughly A$71.2 to A$105. ^[23]

Put simply, the analyst community seems to agree that:

Wesfarmers is a high‑quality, capital‑disciplined conglomerate with enviable franchises in Bunnings and Kmart;
After its strong multi‑year run, the valuation already reflects much of that quality; and
Near‑term upside from here looks modest unless earnings surprise materially to the upside or bond yields fall sharply.

Technical picture: short‑term buy signals, longer‑term caution

Short‑term market technicians are slightly more upbeat than fundamental analysts.

According to StockInvest.us, Wesfarmers’ share price closed at A$81.88 on Friday 28 November 2025, up 0.59% on the day and marking a three‑day winning streak. The service notes: ^[24]

A buy signal from a recent pivot bottom (identified around 25 November), with the price so far rising nearly 3% from that level.
A positive signal from the 3‑month MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), supporting a bullish short‑term trend.
However, the long‑term moving average sits above the short‑term average, generating a general sell signal in their model and pointing to possible weakness beyond the near term.
Daily volatility has been relatively low (around 1.5%), leading them to characterise WES as a low‑risk, highly liquid large‑cap.

Their suggested stop‑loss level sits near A$78.30, about 4–5% below current prices.

In other words, the technical set‑up currently favours further short‑term gains but within a broader sideways‑to‑slightly‑negative trend unless new information changes the market’s view.

Strategy and 2026 outlook: omnichannel, data and new earnings streams

Beyond the latest result and capital return, Wesfarmers’ 2025 Strategy Briefing Day sheds light on how management sees the next decade. ^[25]

Some key themes:

Long‑term returns: Since listing, Wesfarmers has delivered around 19–20% per annum total shareholder return (TSR), comfortably ahead of the broader All Ordinaries Accumulation Index at about 10%. Over the last five years, TSR has been around 20.6% per annum vs ~12.4% for the index. ^[26]
Omnichannel and data scale:
- More than 1,900 stores across Australia and New Zealand.
- Over A$2.8 billion of online retail sales in calendar 2024.
- A shared data asset covering about 12.5 million customers and an integrated loyalty/membership ecosystem.
- A growing retail media network leveraging this audience. ^[27]
Capital discipline: The group entered FY26 with:
- Net financial debt of about A$4.2 billion,
- Debt/EBITDA (ex significant items) at 1.7x, and
- Committed but undrawn bank facilities of roughly A$1.7 billion, plus fresh long‑dated Eurobond funding. ^[28]
Growth pipeline:
- Ongoing network expansion and format evolution in Bunnings, Kmart, Officeworks and Health;
- Expansion of Covalent Lithium, Wesfarmers’ 50%‑owned lithium joint venture, as spodumene volumes ramp;
- Investments in supply‑chain automation, AI‑driven demand forecasting and instore digitisation to lift productivity;
- Scaling of OnePass and associated digital assets to increase cross‑shopping and share of wallet. ^[29]

In the FY25 results presentation, management also flagged that trading across the retail divisions in early FY26 (1H26 to date) has been “solid”:

Bunnings’ sales growth has improved compared with 2H25,
Kmart Group’s growth is broadly similar to its strong second‑half run, and
Officeworks has maintained momentum in line with 2H25. ^[30]

That early read‑through supports the view that Wesfarmers remains well positioned heading into 2026, even as the broader consumer environment stays mixed.

Key risks investors should keep in mind

Despite the attractive income and quality of the underlying businesses, Wesfarmers is not risk‑free. Some of the more important risk factors include:

Consumer and housing cycle exposure
- Bunnings and Kmart are value‑oriented, but still exposed to discretionary spending and, in Bunnings’ case, to the residential construction cycle. Management explicitly notes that building activity is currently subdued, even though long‑term drivers such as population growth and housing undersupply are favourable. ^[31]
Commodity and project risk in WesCEF and lithium
- FY25 earnings in the Chemicals, Energy and Fertilisers division were dampened by lower commodity prices and early‑stage lithium losses — a reminder that these assets add both opportunity and cyclicality. ^[32]
Competitive intensity in health and office supplies
- The Health and Officeworks businesses compete in markets facing both price pressure and online disruption, requiring continuous investment in digital, service and supply‑chain capabilities just to stand still. ^[33]
Valuation risk
- With the share price already embedding high returns on capital and strong execution, any stumble — whether in lithium ramp‑up, health integration, or broader consumer demand — could see multiples compress, especially if bond yields stay elevated. The prevailing analyst targets, clustering only a few dollars above (or even slightly below) the current price, make that risk more salient. ^[34]
One‑off nature of the capital return
- The A$1.50 per share 2025 capital management distribution is explicitly funded by past asset sales and should be viewed as non‑recurring. The board has indicated it expects to maintain full franking of future ordinary dividends, but investors shouldn’t assume similar capital returns will be available every few years. ^[35]

Is Wesfarmers stock a buy, hold or sell at current levels?

Putting the pieces together:

The bull case right now

Market‑leading positions in home improvement (Bunnings) and discount general merchandise (Kmart/Target), backed by outstanding returns on capital. ^[36]
A track record of disciplined capital allocation, including the demerger of Coles, selective divestments, and the current A$1.703 billion capital management initiative. ^[37]
Growing digital, data and retail media capabilities, which could structurally enhance margins and provide new earnings streams over time. ^[38]
A fully franked dividend stream and a 2025 cash yield (including the one‑off distribution) that looks attractive compared to term‑deposit rates for many domestic investors. ^[39]

The bear (or cautious) case

The valuation already reflects much of this quality; most broker and modelled fair‑value estimates sit only slightly above, or even slightly below, the current share price. ^[40]
Near‑term macro risks (consumer spending, housing activity, interest rates) may limit earnings growth in the core retail businesses. ^[41]
WesCEF and lithium introduce earnings volatility, while Health and Officeworks must keep investing heavily just to defend market share. ^[42]

From a neutral, information‑only standpoint, Wesfarmers at around A$82 looks less like a deep‑value opportunity and more like a high‑quality compounding business priced roughly at fair value, with a generous but partly one‑off income kicker in 2025.

Income‑focused, long‑term investors who prize stability and dividend franking may be comfortable owning Wesfarmers at or near these levels. More valuation‑sensitive investors, or those seeking high capital growth, might reasonably wait for a better entry point — for example, a pull‑back driven by macro worries or a temporary stumble in one of the divisions.