Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX:WBC) heads into the final stretch of 2025 with its share price still sitting near multi-year highs—but with a noticeably more cautious tone in analyst price targets. With the ASX closed for Boxing Day (Friday, 26 December 2025), investors are using the holiday lull to digest a busy run of updates on strategy, regulation, governance and the evolving scam-and-cybersecurity arms race that is reshaping how banks allocate tech spend. [1]
Westpac share price today: why “nothing happened” on 26 December (and why that matters)
Because the Australian Securities Exchange is closed on Boxing Day, there’s no official “today’s move” to interpret for Westpac shares on 26 December 2025. [2]
The most recent traded close available in the holiday week was A$39.14 on 24 December 2025 (with an intraday range of A$38.82 to A$39.26 that session). [3]
Zooming out, Westpac has traded in a 52‑week range of A$28.44 to A$41.00—a wide band that helps explain why forecasts are so divided between “already priced in” and “still room to run.” [4]
The Westpac headlines circulating on 26 December 2025: AI shifts from “productivity” to “protection”
One of the most read themes around Westpac on 26 December is less about interest margins and more about trust—specifically, how banks are using AI to stop scams before money leaves a customer’s account.
A major Australian business report published on 26 December describes a broader corporate shift in AI priorities, with banks including Westpac and ANZ emphasising cybersecurity, scam detection, and risk scoring rather than just automation. The same coverage notes more than 15,000 Westpac employees are already integrating AI into their work, and frames the direction of travel as “governance-first” AI (guardrails, oversight, and risk controls) rather than “move fast and break things.” [5]
That theme matches Westpac’s own public messaging earlier in 2025: the bank has been piloting AI to help specialist teams move faster on scam and fraud interventions. [6]
For Westpac stock investors, this matters for a very practical reason: scam losses and reimbursement rules (present and future) can become real P&L items, and the cost of prevention competes with dividends, buybacks, and growth investments.
What Westpac itself has been saying: scam spending, platform responsibility, and “ecosystem” risk
At Westpac’s annual meeting in December, CEO Anthony Miller put scam prevention in “whole ecosystem” terms—calling for stronger action from social platforms used to originate or amplify fraud.
In Reuters reporting from the AGM, Miller said Westpac has spent more than A$500 million over five years on scam and fraud prevention, including detection tools and customer protection systems, while arguing banks can’t solve the problem alone and calling out platforms such as Meta. [7]
This is one of those “soft” topics that can turn into a “hard” valuation driver, because it influences:
- operating expense trajectories,
- customer trust and retention,
- regulator posture (and potential enforcement),
- and the likelihood of future industry-wide compensation schemes.
The fundamental anchor: Westpac’s FY2025 result and the mortgage competition problem
The big fundamental reference point that continues to shape forecasts is Westpac’s most recent full-year performance.
For the year ended 30 September 2025, Reuters reported Westpac posted net profit after tax of A$6.99 billion, down from A$7.11 billion a year earlier, but ahead of consensus expectations compiled by Visible Alpha. [8]
Key details investors have been weighing since that result include:
- Net interest margin (NIM): 1.94%, down 1 basis point amid intense competition in lending and deposits. [9]
- Home‑loan book: A$497 billion, up 5% year-on-year, but with regulatory data showing rivals growing mortgage lending faster. [10]
- Credit quality: home loans overdue by more than 90 days fell to 0.83% from 1.05% a year earlier. [11]
- Operating expenses: up 9% to A$11.9 billion, inflated by restructuring plus heavier technology/transformation spending and wage growth. [12]
- Dividend: final dividend 77 cents, taking the full-year dividend to A$1.53, with a reported payout ratio of 76%. [13]
Westpac also flagged a key macro expectation: credit growth moderating through 2025 before stabilising in 2026 as higher rates and weaker consumption cool activity and housing demand. [14]
In plain language: Westpac is profitable and well-capitalised, but it’s fighting hard for mortgage volume in a market where pricing power is contested and deposit competition can eat the benefit of higher rates.
Strategy and balance-sheet moves: RAMS exit and “how we grow” matters more than “how fast we grow”
Two strategic choices highlighted in recent reporting have ongoing implications for valuation:
- Westpac’s RAMS mortgage portfolio sale
Reuters described the sale of Westpac’s A$21.4 billion RAMS mortgage portfolio to a consortium including Pepper Money, KKR and PIMCO as part of the context around capital strength. [15] - Management’s stance on deliberate growth choices
In the same Reuters coverage, CEO Anthony Miller characterised Westpac’s below-system mortgage growth as deliberate, emphasising service proposition, the process of streamlining approvals, and a desire to reduce reliance on mortgage brokers to lift margins on new loans. [16]
For investors, the tension is familiar: slower growth can protect returns and risk quality, but the market often rewards banks that can grow without sacrificing margin—or that can offset slower growth through cost discipline.
Cost control is still a live debate: Fit for Growth and restructuring charges
Cost is the other half of the bank-investor obsession (margin is the first half). In October, Reuters reported Westpac recognised a A$273 million restructuring charge in the second half of FY2025 as part of productivity initiatives under its “Fit for Growth” program. [17]
That number also appeared later as one of the contributors to the FY2025 expense increase Reuters reported in the full-year result. [18]
The market question isn’t whether restructuring costs exist (they do), but whether the bank can credibly convert “transformation” into durable expense-to-income improvement without breaking customer experience—especially while simultaneously spending big on scam prevention and tech modernisation.
Governance and ESG: AGM votes, proxy pressure and climate resolutions
Westpac has also been navigating a governance-heavy stretch—something that tends to matter most to institutional holders and to the cost of capital.
Ahead of the AGM, Reuters reported that two proxy advisers recommended voting against the re-election of director Peter Nash, citing his prior tenure at the Australian Securities Exchange and governance concerns. [19]
At the AGM itself, Reuters later reported Nash was re-elected but faced a sizeable protest vote—about 40% voting against—and noted climate protests outside the meeting. [20]
Separately, Australian reporting in December described a shareholder resolution push related to fossil fuel financing alignment with Paris climate goals, backed by large investors. [21]
Even when these issues don’t change earnings tomorrow morning, they can influence:
- investor demand (especially ESG-sensitive funds),
- reputational risk,
- and the probability of future policy constraints.
Regulation is the 2026 wildcard: capital rules and mortgage “guardrails”
If 2025 was about digestion after a strong bank rally, 2026 begins with regulatory changes that are hard for any big lender to ignore.
1) APRA’s loss-absorbing capacity (LAC) requirements: 18.25% total capital from 1 January 2026
APRA’s finalised framework for domestic systemically important banks sets out that the minimum Total Capital requirement, including buffers, will be 18.25%, applying from 1 January 2026. [22]
This matters for Westpac shareholders because higher required capital levels can influence:
- the pace of capital returns (dividends/buybacks),
- funding mix (e.g., Tier 2 issuance),
- and strategic flexibility in downturns.
2) APRA’s phase-out of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) hybrid instruments: framework effective 1 January 2027
In early December 2025, APRA said it had finalised amendments to phase out AT1 capital instruments as eligible regulatory capital, with the new framework coming into effect on 1 January 2027, and with existing AT1 expected to be phased out gradually (APRA expects by 2032). [23]
This is a big structural change to how Australian banks build their capital stack over time.
3) Mortgage risk tightening: debt-to-income cap from February 2026
In late November, Reuters reported APRA will cap high debt-to-income home loans from February 2026, limiting banks to issuing up to 20% of new home loans at DTI ratios of six or higher (with exemptions for new housing). [24]
For a mortgage-heavy bank like Westpac, this is relevant not because it hits every borrower (it doesn’t), but because it may constrain the highest-leverage segment of new lending and could push some volume toward non-bank lenders.
4) Westpac-specific capital relief: APRA removes remaining capital add-on
In October, Reuters reported APRA removed the remaining A$500 million capital add-on previously imposed on Westpac after completion of a multi-year risk transformation program. Westpac said the change would lift its CET1 ratio by ~17 basis points due to a A$6.25 billion reduction in risk-weighted assets. [25]
That’s a tangible positive for capital flexibility—at least at the starting line of 2026.
Analyst forecasts for Westpac stock: targets below the current share price
Here’s the part that keeps showing up in Westpac valuation debates: the share price is above the average analyst target.
As of 26 December 2025, Investing.com’s consensus snapshot (13 analysts) shows:
- Average 12‑month price target: ~A$33.93
- High: A$40.00 / Low: A$30.50
- Consensus rating: “Sell” (0 buy, 8 sell, 5 hold)
- Implied downside: ~‑13.32% versus the referenced price level. [26]
MarketScreener reports a similar average target (A$33.93) and an “underperform”/sell-leaning consensus, also referencing a last close around A$39.14. [27]
Meanwhile, at least one notable broker stance shifted more positively after results: Investing.com reported JPMorgan upgraded Westpac to Neutral from Underweight and raised its price target to A$36.00 from A$30.80, pointing to resilient earnings and low impairment charges. [28]
How to read this gap: when a bank stock trades above consensus targets, the market is implicitly saying either (a) earnings and dividends will surprise on the upside, (b) risk is lower than analysts assume, or (c) investors are willing to accept a lower future return because they value stability and yield.
Dividends: what Westpac paid, and the key dates that can move WBC shares next
Dividends remain central to the Westpac investment case—especially in Australia, where franking credits shape demand.
Westpac’s investor centre confirms the 2025 final ordinary dividend was 77 cents per share, announced 3 November 2025 and paid 19 December 2025, 100% franked at the 30% company tax rate (with New Zealand imputation credits also attaching). [29]
Westpac’s official financial calendar also lists the upcoming market-moving dates for ordinary shareholders, including:
- First Quarter Results announced: 13 February 2026
- Interim Results & dividend announcement: 5 May 2026
- Interim dividend payable: 26 June 2026 [30]
Even for long-term investors, these dates matter because bank stocks often re-price around results, guidance, and dividend expectations—especially when the stock is already trading above many target prices.
What could move Westpac shares in early 2026: the investor checklist
With the stock near A$39 and analysts clustered lower, the next “clean” upside catalysts usually need to be fundamental, not just sentiment. Based on the latest reporting and official dates, investors are likely to focus on:
- Margin direction (NIM): can Westpac defend spreads while deposit pricing stays competitive? (FY2025 NIM was 1.94%.) [31]
- Mortgage growth vs. margin discipline: management has signalled it’s willing to trade volume for quality of growth and better service economics—markets will judge whether that strategy wins share without giving away profitability. [32]
- Credit quality: arrears improved in FY2025; the question is whether that holds if household budgets tighten or unemployment rises. [33]
- Cost trajectory: restructuring and transformation are expensive upfront; investors will look for credible evidence that cost growth slows as programs mature. [34]
- Scam prevention effectiveness: Westpac is spending heavily; any regulatory changes or industry reimbursement frameworks could make this an even bigger profit lever. [35]
- Regulatory constraints on mortgage risk: APRA’s DTI cap in February 2026 could subtly reshape new lending mix across the system. [36]
- Capital management: removal of the APRA capital add-on is supportive, but broader capital rule changes (LAC and AT1 phase-out) are still in motion. [37]
Bottom line for Westpac stock on 26 December 2025
Westpac Banking Corporation stock enters 2026 balancing three big forces:
- Resilient fundamentals (profitability, improving arrears, and a dividend that remains a core attraction). [38]
- A regulation-heavy roadmap (capital framework changes and new mortgage risk “guardrails” arriving in 2026–2027). [39]
- A valuation debate (shares near A$39 versus an analyst average target near A$34, and a consensus rating that still leans cautious). [40]
With the ASX closed on Boxing Day, the market isn’t “voting” today—but the information set investors are using has become clearer: Westpac’s next leg will likely be decided less by holiday-week sentiment and more by February and May reporting, the path of margins and costs, and whether scam prevention spending becomes a defensible competitive moat rather than a permanent tax on bank profitability. [41]
References
1. sharetrading.westpac.com.au, 2. sharetrading.westpac.com.au, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.theaustralian.com.au, 6. www.westpac.com.au, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.theaustralian.com.au, 22. www.apra.gov.au, 23. www.apra.gov.au, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.marketscreener.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.westpac.com.au, 30. www.westpac.com.au, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.apra.gov.au, 40. www.investing.com, 41. www.westpac.com.au
