Why Caterpillar stock is slipping today: AI data-center power bets meet year-end trading

Why Caterpillar stock is slipping today: AI data-center power bets meet year-end trading

NEW YORK, December 30, 2025, 10:59 ET — Regular session

  • Caterpillar shares down about 0.2% in morning trading as U.S. stocks ease on light year-end volume.
  • A Wall Street Journal report spotlights demand for Caterpillar generators tied to AI data centers.
  • An SEC filing shows CEO Joe Creed added “phantom” stock units under a deferred-comp plan.

Caterpillar, Inc. shares dipped on Tuesday, down about 0.2% at $577.21, as U.S. stocks edged lower in thin year-end trading. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were all slightly in the red, with investors also awaiting the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes — the detailed record of its latest policy discussion. Reuters

The modest move matters because Caterpillar has become a crowded way to express a bigger market theme: rising power demand from AI data centers, and what that means for industrial suppliers.

That narrative has helped broaden the stock’s investor base beyond the usual cycle-watchers who track construction, mining and commodity demand.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Joule Capital Partners plans to buy more than 700 natural-gas-fueled generators from Caterpillar for a Utah data-center campus projected to need about 1.5 gigawatts of power by 2028. “Our electric grid is constrained in many areas, so we’re trying to build power generation on site,” said David Gray, co-chief executive for the project’s developer, according to the Journal. The paper also said Caterpillar is investing $725 million to expand piston-engine production in Indiana and plans to more than double turbine-engine manufacturing capacity by 2030, after a 2025 rally that it pegged at 62%. Wall Street Journal

Caterpillar has already framed the Indiana engine expansion as a response to growing electricity needs, including demand tied to AI and data centers, in prior company announcements. Caterpillar Investors

Separately, a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission showed Chief Executive Officer Joseph E. Creed acquired 26 “phantom stock units” under the company’s non-qualified deferred compensation plan, including units credited at $583 and units contributed for no consideration. Form 4 is the SEC disclosure for insider transactions; “phantom” units track the share price and are settled in cash at retirement or separation. SEC

Other companies linked to on-site and grid-support power for data centers were little changed in early trading, with Cummins flat and GE Vernova slightly lower.

The AI-power angle has gained traction because it is less directly tied to equipment demand swings that can follow shifts in interest rates and heavy construction activity.

Investors will be looking for signs that large orders translate into a durable pipeline, and for updates on capacity expansion plans as lead times tighten.

They will also watch backlog — the value of orders not yet delivered — because it offers a clearer read on demand than a single quarter’s shipments.

For now, Caterpillar’s small pullback suggests the market is digesting a strong run while waiting for the next datapoints on spending, supply and pricing across the industrial complex.

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