SINGAPORE (25 Dec 2025) — Wilmar International Limited stock has spent much of 2025 stuck in the tension field between two powerful narratives: a core earnings recovery driven by better operating conditions in key segments, and a legal/regulatory overhang that has repeatedly yanked sentiment back into risk-off mode.
With the Singapore Exchange (SGX) closed on 25 December for Christmas Day, the most recent reference point for Wilmar’s share price is the prior trading session. TradingHours
Below is a detailed, publication-ready roundup of the most relevant current developments, forecasts, and analyst analyses shaping Wilmar International Limited stock as of 25.12.2025.
Wilmar share price check: where the stock stands heading into year-end
Wilmar International (SGX: F34) last traded on 24 Dec 2025 at around S$3.09 (per third-party market data), with recent sessions showing relatively tight day-to-day moves after a volatile year dominated by legal headlines. Investing
That “calmer tape” into late December shouldn’t be mistaken for “quiet fundamentals.” In 2025, Wilmar’s price action has often been less about soybean crush margins or palm yields and more about the market’s attempt to price tail-risk—the kind that arrives through court rulings, penalties, and reputational shocks.
Q3 2025: a headline net loss, but core profit jumped more than 70%
The single most important operational datapoint for Wilmar stock late in 2025 is this: underlying performance improved sharply, even though reported net profit did not.
In its 3QFY2025 update (quarter ended 30 Sep 2025), Wilmar reported a net loss of US$347.7 million, reversing from a profit a year earlier—primarily because of a large Indonesia-related payment. The Business Times
But stripping out that exceptional item, Wilmar’s core net profit rose 71.6% year-on-year to US$357.2 million, supported by stronger results across core segments. Revenue rose 7.4% to US$19.1 billion, and sales volumes increased in key businesses (notably food products and feed/industrial). The Business Times
Operational highlights cited in reporting around the quarter included:
- Stronger performance in China’s oil, flour and rice businesses, supporting the food products segment. The Business Times
- Higher crushing margins and volume in parts of the soybean business, helped by abundant South American harvests and demand from livestock. The Business Times
- Steady palm oil prices and healthy contributions from plantations. The Business Times
Balance sheet snapshot investors kept an eye on
Wilmar also pointed to substantial liquidity and a working-capital tailwind from softer commodity prices earlier in the year. As of 30 Sep 2025, reporting cited:
- Net gearing of 0.82x (improved vs. a year earlier)
- Net debt of US$16.5 billion
- US$4.0 billion operating cash flow over the first nine months
- US$36.9 billion of unutilised banking facilities The Business Times
For equity investors, that matters because it frames the big debate: How much does “legal cost + reputational discount” eat into the upside from an operational rebound?
Indonesia: the cooking oil case that hit reported earnings—and why it still matters
Supreme Court ruling and the “security deposit” turned penalty
Indonesia has been the epicentre of Wilmar’s most market-moving controversy in 2025.
Reuters reported that Indonesia’s Supreme Court overturned earlier acquittals for Wilmar Group and other palm oil firms tied to alleged misconduct around export permits, with Wilmar having paid 11.8 trillion rupiah described as a security deposit that the court said would be treated as part of the fine and transferred to the state treasury. Reuters
Wilmar’s Q3 reporting in Singapore-linked coverage described an 11.9 trillion rupiah payment as the direct driver of the quarter’s net loss. The Business Times
The market reaction: fast, brutal, then… selective amnesia?
When the court outcome hit in late September, Wilmar shares sold off sharply intraday (with reporting noting the stock touched its lowest level since 2016 during that episode). The Business Times
Broker commentary at the time stressed the earnings hit and reputational risk. RHB, for example, downgraded the stock and warned that forfeiture of the deposit could meaningfully dent FY2025 earnings expectations (pending final detail). The Business Times
Then something interesting happened: after the financial impact became “known” and the company’s core operating recovery became clearer, multiple analysts began shifting from “doom” to “damage assessed.”
A November analyst round-up noted that, with the cooking oil fine effectively crystallised, some analysts saw a reduction in regulatory uncertainty, focusing again on earnings recovery into FY2026–FY2027. The Edge Singapore
Other Indonesia-related investigations investors are still tracking
Even with the cooking-oil issue “priced,” Indonesia hasn’t been a one-story market for Wilmar in 2025.
1) Rice mislabelling probe
Indonesia’s National Police named senior officials of Wilmar subsidiary Padi Indonesia Maju as suspects in a case involving alleged mixing of lower-grade rice and selling it as premium; Wilmar publicly denied allegations and said it would cooperate to clear its name. The Business Times
2) Sugar import case
In a separate matter, Wilmar disclosed that a general manager at Indonesian subsidiary Duta Sugar International was charged over alleged unlawful acts related to raw sugar imports tied to claimed state losses. The Business Times
In short: the “Indonesia discount” may fade if cases resolve cleanly—but it can also flare back up if new adverse developments land.
China: contract fraud conviction, appeal, and why investors care so much
If Indonesia is Wilmar’s headline-risk engine, China is its earnings gravity well—which is why China-related legal news has hit sentiment so hard.
The case: 1.88 billion yuan of losses at issue
In November, Wilmar disclosed that a subsidiary, Guangzhou Yihai (under Wilmar-controlled Yihai Kerry Arawana, which is ~90% owned by Wilmar), was found guilty by a Chinese court as an accessory in contract fraud and ordered to bear losses amounting to 1.88 billion yuan, alongside other penalties. The Business Times
Wilmar stated the unit intended to contest the ruling, calling aspects of the judgment erroneous. The Business Times
The appeal and the “overhang” problem
A later update reported that the subsidiary lodged an appeal, with the second-instance hearing not yet commenced, leaving the ultimate profit impact uncertain. The Business Times
From a stock-market perspective, this is the tricky part: appeals take time, and even if eventual outcomes are favorable, the uncertainty can linger for quarters—creating what analysts often call a structural overhang.
Management’s stance
In commentary reported in late November, Wilmar’s chairman and CEO Kuok Khoon Hong said he was deeply shocked by the judgment and emphasized the group’s longstanding commitment to China, including cumulative investment figures cited around Yihai Kerry Arawana and the wider Kuok family’s China exposure. The Business Times
India: Wilmar’s AWL Agri Business deal becomes a tangible catalyst
While legal stories drove volatility, Wilmar also advanced a major strategic move in India: building control of AWL Agri Business (formerly Adani Wilmar).
The deal terms
Reuters reported that Wilmar’s unit Lence agreed to buy 169 million shares—a 13% stake—in AWL Agri Business from Adani Commodities for 46.5 billion rupees (about US$529 million) at 275 rupees per share. Reuters
On completion, Reuters said Lence would hold 56.94%. Reuters
Completion confirmed in SGX filing
A subsequent SGX-linked announcement stated the acquisition of the 13% stake was completed, and that AWL is now an indirect 56.94%-owned subsidiary of Wilmar. SGX Links
Why this matters for Wilmar stock
Analyst coverage highlighted accounting and balance-sheet angles around the transaction, including:
- An expected gain on deemed disposal (reported around US$1.16–1.2 billion in coverage) The Edge Singapore
- Reference to negative net tangible assets attributable to AWL based on unaudited numbers as of 30 Jun (as cited in reporting) The Edge Singapore
Strategically, investors have read the AWL move as Wilmar leaning into branded consumer and distribution exposure in a large growth market—while also absorbing a different set of risks (India competition reviews, consumer-cycle dynamics, and integration/execution).
Analyst forecasts and target prices: a wide range, because 2025 was two different stories
By late 2025, broker views on Wilmar International Limited stock clustered into two camps:
Camp 1: “Core earnings recovery is real; regulatory fog is clearing”
A November broker round-up cited multiple houses turning more constructive after the Indonesia fine was levied and core results improved, with examples including:
- CGS International maintaining an “add” call and raising a target price (reported as S$3.60) with expectations of earnings recovery into FY2026–FY2027 The Edge Singapore
- UOB Kay Hian keeping a “buy” call with a slightly raised target price (reported as S$3.50) The Edge Singapore
- RHB upgrading to “neutral” (target price cited around S$3.00) after results were above expectations The Edge Singapore
- Maybank Securities maintaining “hold” with a modestly higher target (reported as S$3.12) The Edge Singapore
- OCBC Investment Research becoming more positive, raising its fair value estimate slightly (reported around S$3.58) while flagging near-term reputational concerns The Edge Singapore
This camp’s core idea: Wilmar is a scale operator whose earnings power shows up when margins normalize—so once the worst regulatory outcomes are quantified, valuation can re-rate.
Camp 2: “Legal and reputational risk is now structural”
A December broker note from Aletheia Capital took the opposite stance, downgrading Wilmar to “sell” and cutting its target price to S$2.50, arguing that the legal issues obscure the recovery narrative and reduce balance-sheet flexibility—especially given the importance of China to group earnings. The Business Times
Aletheia also described the China ruling as introducing a structural overhang that could persist for several quarters even with an appeal in motion. The Business Times
Takeaway: Wilmar’s analyst target dispersion in late 2025 isn’t just normal forecasting noise—it reflects two fundamentally different answers to one question:
Is 2025 an “exceptional year that resets risk,” or the start of a permanently higher risk premium?
Dividends: what’s known, what’s uncertain, and why the market cares
Wilmar’s dividend track record is an important part of its equity story—especially for investors who view the stock as a consumer-staples/agribusiness hybrid with cyclical cash flows.
From Wilmar’s published dividend history, FY2025 included an interim dividend of S$0.040 paid on 28 Aug 2025. IR Media
However, analysts have explicitly warned that 2025 dividends could be lower due to the cash flow impact from Indonesia-related payments (even if underlying operations recover). The Edge Singapore
Corporate governance and insider signal: committee reshuffle and CEO share purchases
Two “softer” signals also mattered to investors watching Wilmar stock in the second half of 2025:
Board risk and sustainability committees move to fully independent oversight
Wilmar announced that chairman Kuok Khoon Hong would cease to be a member of the risk management committee and board sustainability committee, with changes framed as strengthening independence and oversight at board risk committees. The Edge Singapore
CEO buying after the sell-off
After the Indonesia ruling-related slump, reporting noted Kuok-linked entities bought shares (around S$2.7 million) and that his stake rose to about 14.4%, alongside Wilmar reiterating that it expected FY2025 to remain profitable despite anticipating a Q3 net loss. The Business Times
Insider buying doesn’t “prove” a turnaround—but markets often treat it as a sentiment stabilizer when uncertainty is highest.
What investors are watching next for Wilmar International Limited stock
Heading into 2026, Wilmar stock’s direction is likely to hinge on a short list of catalysts:
- Legal resolution path in Indonesia
Not just the cooking-oil penalty already reflected in 2025 numbers, but outcomes of other probes (rice, sugar) and whether further actions emerge. The Business Times - China litigation appeal timeline and disclosure
The Guangzhou Yihai appeal process—and any clarity on potential financial exposure—remains central because of China’s importance to Wilmar’s earnings profile. The Business Times - Earnings recovery durability into FY2026
Bullish analysts are leaning on improved margins, improved segment performance, and normalized commodity conditions into FY2026–FY2027. The Edge Singapore - AWL integration and value narrative
Now that Wilmar has confirmed AWL is a majority-owned subsidiary, investors will watch for how the India asset contributes to earnings quality, cash flow, and strategic positioning. SGX Links
Bottom line for 25 Dec 2025
As of 25.12.2025, Wilmar International Limited stock is best understood as a company with improving operational momentum—evidenced by a strong rebound in core profit—while still carrying an unusually visible set of legal and reputational risk markers across two critical geographies (Indonesia and China). The Business Times
That combination is exactly why analyst targets span from roughly S$2.50 on the bearish side to the mid–high S$3 range on more constructive views: the market is trying to price both a cyclical recovery and a risk premium that may not fade quickly. The Business Times
