As of mid‑day on 5 December 2025, Wilmar International Limited (SGX:F34) is trading around S$3.03–S$3.06 per share on the Singapore Exchange, after several weak sessions that have pulled the stock down roughly 6% over the last 10 trading days. [1]
Despite that near‑term pressure, the agribusiness giant still offers a trailing dividend yield of about 4.6%, based on total 2025 dividends of S$0.14 per share. [2]
At the same time, investors are wrestling with three big themes that now define the Wilmar stock story in late 2025:
- Strong underlying operations and cash flow
- Heavy legal and reputational overhangs in Indonesia and China
- A sharply divided analyst community on valuation and risk
This article pulls together the latest Wilmar International stock news, forecasts and analysis as of 5 December 2025, to help frame the risk–reward trade‑off for SGX:F34 and its OTC tickers (WLMIY/WLMIF). It is informational only and not investment advice.
Today’s Snapshot: Wilmar Share Price, Valuation and Yield
Share price:
- Around S$3.03 at about 11:38am SGT on 5 December 2025, down 1.9% on the day. [3]
- Previous close (4 December) was S$3.09, with the stock down 7 of the last 10 sessions and about 6% lower over that period. [4]
Dividend profile:
- 2025 dividends: S$0.10 final (paid May 2025) + S$0.04 interim (paid August 2025) = S$0.14 per share. [5]
- At a share price near S$3.03, that implies a trailing yield of roughly 4.6%, in line with dividend trackers. [6]
Longer‑term performance:
- According to a recent analysis on Yahoo Finance, investors who bought Wilmar five years ago are sitting on a small capital loss of about 3% (before dividends), underperforming broader indices but cushioned by payouts. [7]
In other words, Wilmar currently behaves like a high‑yield, low‑growth cyclical stock with non‑trivial legal event risk layered on top.
Q3 2025 Results: Big Reported Loss, Strong Core Earnings
Wilmar’s Q3 2025 business update is the pivot point for most current research on the stock.
The headline: a US$347.7 million quarterly loss
For the quarter ended 30 September 2025, Wilmar reported a net loss of US$347.7 million, reversing a net profit of US$254.4 million a year earlier. [8]
The swing into loss was driven almost entirely by a court‑imposed payment of 11.9 trillion rupiah (about S$926 million) to the Indonesian authorities, following a corruption ruling related to the country’s 2021–2022 cooking oil shortage. [9]
Under the surface: core profit up 72%
Strip out that one‑off penalty and Wilmar’s core Q3 net profit tells a very different story:
- Core net profit: up 71.6% year‑on‑year to US$357.2 million
- Revenue: up 7.4% to US$19.1 billion [10]
- Volume growth:
- Food products volumes up 6.5% to 9.3 million tonnes
- Feed & industrial products up 3.2% to 18.8 million tonnes [11]
Management highlighted stronger performance across all core segments, helped by:
- Better crushing margins in the soybean business
- Steady demand in tropical oils and palm plantations
- Improved profitability in China oils, flour and rice operations [12]
For the first nine months of 2025, Wilmar:
- Reported net profit of US$247 million, down 70% vs the prior‑year period
- But core net profit rose 15.5% to US$940.9 million
- Net gearing improved to 0.82x (from 0.94x) on lower working capital needs
- Operating cash flow hit US$4 billion, with US$36.9 billion in unutilised banking facilities. [13]
Despite the bruising Indonesian penalty, Wilmar has reiterated that it expects full‑year 2025 to remain profitable and says it is “cautiously optimistic” about performance for the rest of the year. [14]
Legal Overhangs: Indonesia Cooking Oil Case and China Contract Fraud
The central downside risk in Wilmar International stock today is not soybean yields or palm oil prices; it is legal exposure and reputational risk in key markets.
Indonesia: 11.9 trillion rupiah penalty now absorbed
The Indonesian cooking oil corruption case has dominated Wilmar headlines since 2024:
- Indonesia’s Supreme Court overturned an earlier acquittal and found Wilmar entities guilty over palm oil export permits during the 2021–2022 cooking oil shortage. [15]
- Wilmar was ordered to forfeit an 11.9 trillion rupiah security deposit and pay additional fines via several subsidiaries. [16]
- The entire 11.9 trillion rupiah payment is reflected in Q3 2025, explaining the reported net loss. [17]
The company continues to insist its actions complied with prevailing regulations and says that, while painful, the crystallisation of this penalty removes a major uncertainty from its Indonesian business. [18]
China: Guangzhou Yihai fraud conviction and 1.88 billion yuan exposure
Newer – and arguably more worrying – is the Chinese contract fraud case:
- On 20 November 2025, a Chinese court found Guangzhou Yihai, a subsidiary of Wilmar’s Shenzhen‑listed arm Yihai Kerry Arawana (YKA), guilty of contract fraud as an accessory. [19]
- The court ruled that Guangzhou Yihai is jointly liable for 1.88 billion yuan (about S$346 million) in losses suffered by state‑owned buyer Anhui Huawen, alongside another private counterparty. [20]
- The unit was also fined 1 million yuan; a former general manager received a 19‑year prison sentence and a personal fine of 2.8 million yuan. [21]
Wilmar and YKA have vehemently rejected the ruling, calling the court’s factual findings and application of law “erroneous” and pledging a full appeal. For now:
- The judgement is a first‑instance ruling and has not taken effect
- The fine is not yet payable
- The ultimate financial impact is officially “uncertain” while the appeal is underway [22]
Because China contributes more than half of Wilmar’s earnings, analysts see this case as a material reputational and financial overhang that could weigh on the stock for “several quarters”, even if the eventual cash cost is lower than the headline number. [23]
Strategic Moves: Doubling Down on India via AWL Agri Business
Against that legal backdrop, Wilmar is still pushing its growth strategy, particularly in South Asia.
In November 2025, Wilmar’s wholly owned subsidiary Lence Pte Ltd completed the acquisition of a 13% stake in AWL Agri Business Limited (formerly Adani Wilmar) from Adani Commodities at ₹275 per share, for a total of about ₹46.5 billion (S$680+ million). [24]
This follows a broader deal under which:
- Adani Group is exiting the joint venture entirely, selling its 31% stake to Wilmar in a US$2 billion transaction, and
- Divesting the remaining ~13% via an offer for sale to the public, in order to meet India’s 25% minimum free‑float rules. [25]
By mid‑2025, these steps left Wilmar with a majority stake in AWL Agri Business and full strategic control of a major edible oils and packaged foods platform in India. [26]
Strategically, that gives Wilmar:
- Stronger exposure to Indian consumer markets,
- A deeper value‑chain integration in oils and staples, and
- A platform it can potentially re‑gear with new strategic investors once legal and macro clouds clear. [27]
For investors, however, AWL also means more India‑specific execution and regulatory risk, layered on top of the existing Indonesia and China issues.
Governance and Insider Activity: More Independence, Big Insider Buying
Board committees now fully independent
On 1 December 2025, Wilmar announced that its long‑time chairman and CEO, Kuok Khoon Hong, will step down from the group’s Risk Management Committee and Board Sustainability Committee. [28]
Under the board’s nominating committee’s recommendation:
- Former Singapore minister George Yeo and
- Veteran director Soh Gim Teik
have been appointed to those committees, which will now consist entirely of independent directors, in a bid to “provide more robust and objective oversight of risk‑related matters”. [29]
For governance‑focused investors, this is a modest but meaningful shift away from concentration of power in the executive chair.
Insider ownership and recent purchases
Insider and founder ownership remains high:
- Insiders own about 14% of Wilmar, worth roughly S$2.6 billion at recent prices. [30]
- A Simply Wall St review notes that private companies (many linked to insiders) hold about 42% of the company, with public companies at around 22%, reinforcing the influence of strategic holders. [31]
Notably, on 5 October 2025, Kuok Khoon Hong personally purchased around S$3.8 million of Wilmar shares at an average price of S$2.82, in what was flagged as the largest insider buy in the last 12 months. [32]
Coupled with earlier purchases in September when the stock sank on the Indonesian court ruling, the insider buying is broadly read as a vote of confidence in Wilmar’s long‑term prospects at current levels. [33]
Dividends: Attractive Yield, Slight Downtrend in Payout
Wilmar has long been a dividend stock for Singapore investors.
History and current yield
According to Wilmar’s own dividend history and independent trackers: [34]
- 2025:
- Final dividend: S$0.10 (paid May 2025)
- Interim dividend: S$0.04 (paid August 2025)
- Total: S$0.14 per share – a 4.6% yield at ~S$3.03
- 2024: Total dividend S$0.16 per share
- 2023: Total S$0.17 per share
So while the current yield is attractive, payouts have drifted slightly lower from the 2021–2023 peak, reflecting more volatile cash flows and management’s need to preserve balance sheet flexibility after the Indonesian penalty and potential Chinese exposure. [35]
Consensus forecasts compiled by Beansprout suggest a 2025 dividend per share of about S$0.14, broadly flat versus 2025’s actual level. [36]
Several brokers have cautioned that 2025’s dividend could be at the lower end of historical ranges because of the cash drag from legal cases, even as core earnings recover. [37]
What Analysts Are Saying: From “Sell” to “Buy”
The sell‑side view on Wilmar is sharply split, and that split has widened in recent weeks.
Broker targets: skewed to S$3.00–3.60, but with a vocal bear
Based on collated targets at SGinvestors and recent broker notes: [38]
- CGS International / CGS‑CIMB – Add / Buy, S$3.60 target
- UOB Kay Hian – Buy, S$3.50 target
- DBS Research – Buy, S$3.00 target (cut from 3.80 in September)
- OCBC Investment Research – Buy, S$3.67 target
- RHB Bank Singapore – Neutral, S$3.00 target (upgraded from Sell and S$2.50 after Q3 update)
- Maybank Securities – Hold, S$3.12 target
SGinvestors calculates an average target price of ~S$3.17, implying about 4–5% upside from recent levels. [39]
However, Aletheia Capital has taken a much harsher stance:
- Downgraded Wilmar from “Buy” to “Sell” on 2 December 2025
- Slashed its target price from S$3.49 to S$2.50, implying around 20–25% downside from early‑December prices
- Cited the Chinese contract fraud ruling as a structural overhang that obscures the earnings recovery story and justifies a discount to peers Bunge and ADM. [40]
Aletheia also cut its revenue estimates by 6–10% for FY2025–FY2027 across segments to reflect higher legal and reputational risk in China. [41]
Consensus screens: some see downside, some upside
The divergence is visible in the data platforms as well:
- Beansprout (SGX data) shows a consensus target of S$2.438, implying ~20% downside from a share price of S$3.06 and tagging the stock a “Sell / Underperform”. [42]
- TradingView’s compiled estimates put the average target at S$3.20, with a range from S$2.50 to S$3.60. [43]
In short: some aggregators are dominated by cautious or bearish houses, while others lean more on the banks and brokerages that still see modest upside.
DCF‑style fair value estimates: Wilmar may be “cheap” on fundamentals
Equity research platform Simply Wall St recently argued that Wilmar shares might be around 38% below their estimated intrinsic value, based on a discounted cash flow model with moderate growth assumptions. [44]
That view lines up more with the S$3.50–3.60 bull‑case targets, but it must be read alongside the very real binary legal risks that can’t be captured neatly in a spreadsheet.
Technical Picture and Short‑Term Stock Forecasts
Technical‑analysis site StockInvest currently labels Wilmar “a sell candidate” based on its short‑ and long‑term moving averages:
- The stock has been falling for three consecutive days, down about 6% over the last 10 sessions
- It closed at S$3.09 on 4 December, trading between S$3.03 and S$3.10 intraday on about 6 million shares of volume. [45]
Yet their model actually forecasts a potential 16% rise over the next three months, with a 90% probability band between roughly S$3.58 and S$4.03, assuming the current short‑term trend normalises rather than breaks lower. [46]
That nicely captures the paradox of Wilmar in December 2025: technically weak in the very short run, but with scope for a sharp re‑rating if sentiment turns and legal surprises subside.
ESG and Reputation: A Mixed Picture
Wilmar’s ESG profile is complicated:
- On the positive side, the company recently maintained a top global ranking in a child protection benchmark, achieving a perfect 10/10 score, according to its investor relations site. [47]
- On the negative side, it is simultaneously dealing with high‑profile legal cases in Indonesia (corruption) and China (contract fraud), both of which go directly to governance and ethical conduct. [48]
For ESG‑sensitive investors, Wilmar sits in a “glass‑half‑full and half‑empty” category: significant progress on some sustainability metrics, but headline risks that may still deter capital until resolved.
Key Risks and Opportunities for Wilmar Stock
Putting the pieces together, here is the current risk–reward balance as of 5 December 2025:
Main opportunities
- Earnings recovery already visible in core operations despite the reported loss
- High single‑digit to low‑double‑digit profit growth projected by bullish brokers for FY2026–2027, especially if China demand continues to recover and feed/industrial margins stabilise. [49]
- A 4–5% dividend yield that has historically been relatively resilient through cycles. [50]
- Strategic control of AWL Agri Business in India, giving Wilmar a strong platform in one of the world’s fastest‑growing food markets. [51]
- Meaningful insider ownership and recent insider buying around or below current prices. [52]
Main risks
- The Chinese contract fraud case and potential 1.88 billion yuan liability, with uncertain timing and outcome. [53]
- Residual reputational and regulatory risk from the Indonesian corruption case, even after the 11.9 trillion rupiah payment has been expensed. [54]
- Possible pressure on dividend payouts if legal settlements or further provisions absorb more cash. [55]
- Commodity‑cycle exposure: margins in soybean crushing and tropical oils could compress again if prices and spreads move against Wilmar. [56]
- Valuation dispersion: some credible analysts now publicly see 20%+ downside (e.g. Aletheia at S$2.50), while others see modest upside; that uncertainty itself can cap near‑term re‑rating. [57]
Bottom Line: A High‑Yield Turnaround with Binary Legal Risk
As of 5 December 2025, Wilmar International stock sits at an uneasy crossroads:
- Operationally, it looks like a recovering, cash‑generative agribusiness with improving margins, growing Asian food exposure, and a history of paying mid‑single‑digit percentage dividends. [58]
- Legally, it faces two large and messy cases – one largely crystallised in Indonesia, one still very open‑ended in China – that justify a discount to global peers in the eyes of several analysts. [59]
For investors, Wilmar in late 2025 is less a neat “value stock” and more a litigation‑overhang special situation: future returns may depend as much on courtrooms in Jakarta and Huaibei as on soybean crush spreads.
Anyone considering Wilmar International Limited shares should closely track developments in the Chinese appeal, further Indonesian enforcement actions, and any new SGX or exchange announcements, and – crucially – match the stock’s legal and commodity risk to their own risk tolerance and time horizon.
References
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