XRP Price Forecast for December 2025: Extreme Fear, $2 “Buy Zone” Hype and $12M Max‑Pain Level Collide

On 7 December 2025, XRP found itself at a crossroads. The token is hovering around the $2.00 support zone after a two‑month, ~31% drawdown, while sentiment has sunk into “extreme fear” and analysts are split on whether this level is a bargain or a bull trap. ^[1]

At the same time, XRP spot ETFs are approaching or surpassing $1 billion in assets, options data reveal a $12 million “max pain” level for bears near $2.28, and whale wallets have just offloaded roughly $783 million in XRP. ^[2]

Here’s how the key narratives from 7 December 2025 fit together – and what they may mean for XRP’s price into year‑end.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and journalistic purposes only and is not financial advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and you can lose all the money you invest. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a qualified financial professional.

XRP Price Today: $2 Support Under Siege, But Not Broken

Across multiple market reports on 6–7 December, XRP is described as trading roughly between $2.00 and $2.10, repeatedly testing but not decisively losing the $2 psychological floor. ^[3]

Key points from the latest coverage:

Two‑month slide: Coinpaper notes XRP has fallen about 31% over the past two months, even as it consolidates just above $2.00. ^[4]
Short‑term bounce attempts: Finbold highlights that XRP briefly pushed higher on 7 December, aided by roughly $6 billion in fresh market cap inflows, but still struggled to hold above short‑term resistance around $2.15. ^[5]
ETF‑linked volatility: Another Finbold piece tracks the Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) on Nasdaq, which has slid about 20% from its early $26–27 trading range to roughly $21.55, closely mirroring XRP’s own choppy pullback toward $2.03. ^[6]

The combined message: XRP is in a fragile equilibrium – buyers are defending $2, but every push higher has been met with selling.

ETF Story: Huge Inflows, Harsh Reality

15‑Day ETF Inflow Streak – But Prices Lag

According to FXEmpire, the U.S. XRP spot ETF market has now logged 15 consecutive trading days of net inflows, adding about $10.23 million on Friday, 5 December alone and roughly $897 million since launch. ^[7]

Highlights from that analysis:

Canary’s XRPC leads with around $363.85 million of net inflows. ^[8]
Weekly net inflows across all U.S. XRP spot ETFs reached about $230.7 million, even as Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows in the same period. ^[9]
Despite the inflow streak, XRP failed to hold above $2.20 and ended the week down roughly 4–5%, stuck near the $2.00 support. ^[10]

This disconnect – money flowing in while price drifts sideways‑to‑down – is a recurring theme in the 7 December coverage.

ETFs Near $1 Billion – But Double‑Digit XRP Called “Unrealistic”

A detailed piece from Coinpedia estimates that the first wave of U.S. XRP ETFs from issuers like Bitwise, Canary, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale and Rex Osprey has already collected more than $1 billion in assets, locking up around 473 million XRP (roughly 0.5% of circulating supply) within a couple of weeks of launch. ^[11]

Yet in the same article, Shardeum co‑founder Nischal Shetty warns that expecting XRP to reach double‑digit prices purely because of ETF demand is “unrealistic”, arguing that:

Early ETF inflows are often short‑term traders, not deep‑pocketed institutions.
Sustainable value depends on real‑world settlement volume, liquidity and regulatory clarity, not just new trading wrappers. ^[12]

In other words, ETFs are a powerful distribution channel, not a magic price machine.

“Buy XRP Around $2?” – The Mainstream Hype Angle

The title of the widely syndicated Motley Fool piece – “Buy XRP Around $2? Your Future Self Will Thank You” – has been picked up in feeds from FXEmpire and carried on sites such as The Globe and Mail. ^[13]

Even without the full text, that headline alone shows how mainstream investor media is framing the $2 area as a potential long‑term “buy zone” for XRP. The message sits in stark contrast to the cautious tone among many professional analysts:

Finbold’s prediction‑market piece reports that traders on Polymarket now give XRP only about a 3% chance of setting a new all‑time high by 31 December 2025, with more than $170,000 wagered – down over 60% from odds earlier in the year. ^[14]

So while the headline‑level narrative tempts readers with the idea that “future you” will be grateful for buying at $2, market‑based odds and institutional research still point to a low probability of a sudden blow‑off top before year‑end.

Sentiment: Extreme Fear and the TD Sequential Buy Signal

Fear Index Near Multi‑Month Lows

Multiple sources agree that XRP sentiment has flipped to deep pessimism:

Aggregators summarizing a CoinDesk report say that social sentiment around XRP has sunk into “extreme fear”, a zone which has historically preceded short‑term rebounds. ^[15]
Cointribune and other outlets track this with crowd metrics that resemble the setup before a 22% bounce seen in November when fear peaked and quickly reversed. ^[16]

Coinpaper’s 6 December analysis adds that XRP’s two‑month slump and shrinking volatility look like a late‑stage downtrend consolidation, often a prerequisite for a trend change. ^[17]

TD Sequential Flashes Bullish

On the technical side, both Coinpaper and Brave New Coin (summarized via AInvest) highlight a TD Sequential buy signal on XRP’s weekly chart:

Coinpaper notes the TD Sequential has flipped bullish after a prolonged decline, frequently a sign that downside momentum is exhausting and a recovery phase may follow. ^[18]
AInvest, citing Brave New Coin, goes further: it sees a “textbook” double bottom near $1.80, arguing that a sustained break above roughly $2.22 could validate the pattern and open the way toward $2.70–$3.10. ^[19]

In short, funding flows and news flow are gloomy, but charts are starting to whisper “bottom.”

Options Market: $12 Million “Max Pain” for Bears at $2.28

U.Today’s options data, based on CoinGlass, adds another piece to the puzzle: a “max pain” cluster in XRP derivatives around $2.28. ^[20]

Key details from that report:

Roughly $12 million in short positions are concentrated near the $2.28 strike, meaning that if XRP rallies into that zone, bears feel the most combined losses. ^[21]
At the time of writing, XRP is trading near $2.00–$2.07, so shorts have nearly a 10% cushion before pain really spikes. ^[22]
Longs, by contrast, have their own “max pain” level much closer to spot, leaving them vulnerable to even a modest pullback. ^[23]

This suggests a tug‑of‑war structure:

Bulls don’t need a huge move to push XRP toward levels that hurt shorts.
Bears can tolerate some upside, but will be forced to react if price approaches the $2.20–$2.30 band that options data and spot charts both highlight.

Whales vs. HODLers: $783M Sold, Yet Holding Strength Grows

BeInCrypto’s 7 December on‑chain analysis digs into who is actually buying and selling at $2.00: ^[24]

Wallets holding 1–10 million XRP have sold more than 390 million coins in a week, worth roughly $783 million at current prices.
This whale distribution points to frustration among large holders who had been betting on a stronger post‑ETF rally.
At the same time, 1‑ to 2‑year holders increased their share of the XRP supply from about 8.58% to 9.81% in just seven days – a sign that maturing, longer‑term holders are quietly accumulating, not capitulating.

Price‑wise, BeInCrypto sees XRP oscillating around $2.00, likely range‑bound between $2.00 and $2.20 unless a new catalyst emerges. A break below around $1.94 could open the way to roughly $1.85, while stronger demand could keep the consolidation intact. ^[25]

This paints a nuanced picture:

Short‑term “fast money” whales are lightening up.
Patient capital is slowly absorbing supply, helping $2 act as more than just a round number on the chart.

“Contrarian Opportunity”: Double Bottom and ETF Tailwinds

AInvest’s AI‑assisted report pulls together many of these threads into a contrarian bull case: ^[26]

Chart structure: The article describes a double bottom near $1.80 plus the weekly TD Sequential buy, arguing that holding above $2.00 while reclaiming $2.22 would be a strong technical confirmation of a new up‑leg, with targets in the $2.70–$3.10 range.
ETF and AUM metrics: It references data showing 11–13 straight days of ETF inflows, with XRP ETF assets surpassing $844.9M in early December and expected to cross $1B, locking up around 473 million XRP (~0.5% of supply) – numbers broadly consistent with Coinpedia and FXEmpire. ^[27]
Regulatory backdrop: Post‑settlement clarity in the SEC vs. Ripple case and new payment‑focused partnerships (e.g., RLUSD‑based ties with Mastercard and WebBank) are cast as longer‑term utility drivers that could justify continued institutional interest. ^[28]

Taken together, the piece argues that extreme fear + constructive technicals + structural ETF demand create a “rare alignment” of factors for contrarian bulls – with the big caveat that a clean break below $2.00 would invalidate the thesis.

Key Levels and Scenarios to Watch

Across the 7 December research and analysis, several price zones keep appearing:

$1.80–$1.85:
- Lower support tied to the double‑bottom structure and downside scenario in both AInvest and BeInCrypto’s work. ^[29]
$1.90–$1.94:
- Short‑term support: a clean break here would signal that whale selling has overwhelmed long‑term accumulation, opening a deeper correction. ^[30]
$2.00 (psychological + structural support):
- Central to almost every analysis: FXEmpire calls it the “crucial” level for the medium‑term outlook, while multiple sources frame it as the line between a consolidation and a more serious breakdown. ^[31]
$2.15–$2.22 (near‑term resistance):
- Finbold and AInvest both highlight this zone as first resistance; AInvest treats a sustained break above roughly $2.22 as confirming the double‑bottom bullish structure. ^[32]
$2.28 (options “max pain” for shorts):
- U.Today’s options analysis pegs approximately $12M in short exposure around this strike; if price moves here, bears start to feel real pressure. ^[33]
$2.50 and above (stretch targets):
- Coinpaper places $2.50 as the next major resistance if the reversal attempt succeeds, while FXEmpire’s medium‑term roadmap envisions a move first toward $2.35, then $2.50 and $3.00 if $2.00 holds and macro conditions cooperate. ^[34]

In practical terms, the battlefield is centered on $2.00, with $1.94–$1.80 below and $2.22–$2.30 above acting as the danger or breakout zones.

Macro and Regulatory Wildcards

FXEmpire’s macro section underlines that XRP’s story is not just about crypto‑native flows: ^[35]

Fed policy: Markets expect a 25 bp Fed rate cut around 10 December, with further easing in 2026. Easier policy generally supports risk assets, including altcoins like XRP.
U.S. Market Structure Bill: Progress (or further delay) on crypto‑focused legislation in the U.S. Senate remains a key driver, especially after XRP’s sharp rally when the House passed the bill earlier in the year.
Yen carry trade risk: Potential moves by the Bank of Japan could again trigger a “carry trade unwind,” which previously correlated with a sharp XRP drop in 2024.

On top of that, spot ETF inflow/outflow data will remain a daily barometer of institutional appetite. Analysts broadly agree that continued inflows and a stable macro backdrop would support the bullish case, while ETF outflows plus risk‑off macro conditions would likely push XRP back below $2.

What It All Means for Traders and Long‑Term Holders

Pulling the 7 December coverage together, the XRP story looks like this:

Short‑term picture:
- Price is stuck near $2.00, with whale selling, fearful sentiment and options positioning all arguing for caution.
- At the same time, the TD Sequential buy signal, double‑bottom talk, and rising long‑term holder share point to a possible early bottoming process rather than a fresh top. ^[36]
Medium‑term (weeks to a few months):
- If $2.00 holds and price can push through $2.22–$2.28, multiple analysts see room toward $2.35–$2.50, with some projecting $3.00+ under favorable macro and ETF conditions. ^[37]
- If $2.00 fails, eyes turn to $1.94 and $1.80–$1.85 as potential downside targets, invalidating the clean bullish structures that have just appeared on higher‑time‑frame charts. ^[38]
Long‑term narrative:
- ETFs, regulatory clarity and real‑world payment use cases are steadily improving XRP’s structural backdrop.
- But credible voices – including experts quoted by Coinpedia and Finbold – emphasize that double‑digit XRP is not guaranteed, and that utility and regulation, not hype alone, will decide whether today’s $2 area looks cheap in hindsight. ^[39]

For now, XRP sits at a high‑stakes inflection point:

To bulls, it is a contrarian setup – extreme fear, heavy ETF demand and a cluster of technical buy signals all within a tight price band.
To bears, it resembles a classic distribution top, where whales are quietly exiting into ETF‑driven optimism and retail “$2 is a bargain” headlines.

Whichever side proves right, the market has made one thing clear: the $2 line is where XRP’s next major move will be decided.