Block, Inc. (NYSE: XYZ), the fintech formerly known as Square, is ending the first week of December 2025 in the middle of a tug‑of‑war between regulators, holiday spending data, and bullish Wall Street forecasts.
As of the last close on December 5, 2025, XYZ traded around $61.11 per share, giving Block a market capitalization of roughly $37 billion, with a 52‑week range of about $44 to $99 and a price‑to‑earnings ratio near 12.3. [1] That puts the stock well below its highs, but still comfortably above its lows, after a volatile stretch driven by regulatory headlines and a sharp pullback in fintech names more broadly. [2]
At the same time, Block is posting strong fundamentals: Q3 2025 earnings beat expectations, Bitcoin revenue surged, and early holiday‑shopping metrics show double‑digit growth in transaction volumes across Square, Cash App, and Afterpay. [3]
This article summarizes the latest news, forecasts and analyses available up to December 7, 2025 for XYZ stock, with a focus on what matters most for investors watching Block right now.
XYZ stock today: price action and valuation snapshot
From late November through December 5, XYZ has been under pressure. Historical price data show the stock closing at $66.80 on November 28, then sliding to $61.11 by December 5, part of a broader drop that Simply Wall St estimates at around 16% over the past month. [4]
Despite that slide, several valuation screens suggest Block is not expensive on current earnings. Simply Wall St’s analysis estimates XYZ’s current P/E around 11.9x, compared with a “fair” P/E closer to 19.2x, and slightly below the average for the U.S. diversified financials industry. [5] That framework implies the stock is trading at a discount to what its growth and margins might justify, although that assumes Block can sustain recent earnings momentum.
Public.com and other data providers show trailing‑twelve‑month revenue near $24 billion, consistent with 2025 revenue forecasts around $24.4 billion. [6] Combined with its roughly $37 billion market cap, XYZ changes hands at a revenue multiple that is modest for a high‑growth fintech platform with global reach.
Block’s business is split between Square (merchant solutions) and Cash App (consumer payments and personal finance), with Afterpay for buy‑now‑pay‑later (BNPL), TIDAL in music, Bitkey in crypto wallets, and Proto and other AI‑driven tools. [7] That ecosystem approach is central to most bullish theses on the stock—and also to several of the risks.
This week’s big story: BNPL probe hits Afterpay and drags XYZ lower
The main negative catalyst this week was regulatory.
On December 3, a widely circulated report noted that Attorneys General in seven U.S. states – California, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Minnesota, North Carolina and Wisconsin – opened a probe into six BNPL companies, including Afterpay, Block’s BNPL subsidiary. [8] Regulators are asking for detailed information about pricing, repayment structures, disclosures and user agreements, reflecting concern that BNPL may be operating in a gray area compared with traditional credit cards.
Following that news, Block’s share price fell about 6.6% in a single session, closing at $60.11 on December 3, making XYZ one of the day’s weakest performers among large‑cap fintechs. [9] The sell‑off compounded earlier weakness and helped push the stock further below its recent trading range.
The probe is especially important because BNPL is woven into Block’s broader ecosystem: Afterpay feeds incremental volume to Square and Cash App, and it has been a contributor to growth in Cash App Borrow and BNPL‑related gross profit. The GuruFocus breakdown of Q3 2025 noted that transaction, loan and consumer‑receivable losses rose 89% year‑over‑year, largely due to growth in Cash App Borrow—highlighting why regulators and investors are paying close attention to credit quality. [10]
In short, the BNPL investigation introduces a new regulatory overhang just as Block is leaning harder into consumer credit to drive monetization.
Earnings backdrop: Q3 2025 shows Cash App strength and higher credit costs
The regulatory worries are hitting a company that, on the numbers, is currently executing well.
Block’s Q3 2025 earnings, released on November 6, painted a picture of strong topline growth with rising profitability:
- Revenue: about $6.31 billion, roughly in line with analyst estimates
- GAAP EPS:$0.74, versus expectations closer to $0.55
- Gross profit:$2.66 billion, up 18% year‑over‑year
- Net income: roughly $462 million
- Cash App gross profit:$1.62 billion, up 24% year‑over‑year
- Square gross profit:$1.02 billion, up about 9%
- Total liquidity: around $10.5 billion, including $9.7 billion in cash and equivalents [11]
Those numbers underscore two key themes:
- Cash App remains the growth engine. Its rapid gross‑profit growth is being driven by products like Cash App Borrow, the Cash App Card, and Bitcoin trading. [12]
- Credit and risk costs are rising. The same GuruFocus analysis flagged a sharp increase in transaction and loan losses, tying it to higher loan volumes and BNPL activity. [13]
Another layer is Bitcoin. Q3 coverage from industry outlets noted that Block generated nearly $2 billion in Bitcoin-related revenue in the quarter, accounting for roughly one‑third of total revenue, emphasizing how much of the business now rides on cryptocurrency trading and spreads. [14]
Earlier in the year, Q2 2025 results prompted Block to raise its full‑year gross‑profit outlook, citing resilient consumer spending and strong demand across Cash App and Square, according to Reuters and other earnings coverage. [15] That guidance raise set the stage for Q3’s beat and reinforced the idea that the core business is solid even as macro and regulatory headwinds build.
Holiday shopping check‑in: BFCM data points to solid demand
For consumer‑facing fintechs, the Black Friday–Cyber Monday (BFCM) weekend is a live stress test. Block’s early numbers were robust.
A December 2 release on Block’s investor site and follow‑up coverage reported that the company processed more than 124 million transactions across Square, Cash App and Afterpay over the Black Friday/Cyber Monday period, representing about 10% growth versus last year. [16]
Zacks later framed the data more broadly, noting that Block’s BFCM performance involved about 142 million BFCM transactions and roughly 49.8 million unique consumers, serving more than 1.3 million businesses. The firm also highlighted that BNPL basket sizes rose around 10% and BNPL spend per customer increased about 6% during the period. [17]
Taken together, the holiday data suggest:
- Underlying payment volumes remain healthy, even after a year of higher interest rates and tighter consumer budgets.
- Afterpay is still gaining traction, with larger ticket sizes and greater per‑customer engagement—exactly why regulators are looking more closely at BNPL, and why investors are torn between growth and risk. [18]
Analyst forecasts: where Wall Street sees XYZ in 12 months
Despite recent volatility and the BNPL probe, Wall Street remains broadly constructive on XYZ stock.
Across major forecast aggregators, the picture looks like this (numbers rounded, as of early December 2025):
- MarketBeat: average 12‑month target around $83–84, based on ~37 analysts, implying roughly 35–37% upside from the low‑$60s. [19]
- TipRanks: average target about $86.6, with a high of $105 and low near $55, representing about 42% upside from recent prices. [20]
- Investing.com: average target close to $84, high $105, low $45, with a consensus rating of “Buy.” [21]
- StockAnalysis / analyst‑summary pages: average target around $80.1, implying roughly 31% upside, and an overall “Buy” consensus. [22]
- MarketScreener: average target about $84.0 from 46 analysts, with a mean consensus of “Outperform.” [23]
A separate view from ChartMill estimates an average target in the mid‑$80s (around $85–86) based on coverage by nearly 50 analysts, again suggesting roughly 30–40% upside from recent levels. [24]
Under the hood, recent research notes have:
- Reiterated Buy ratings from firms such as Needham, UBS, and BofA, with price targets in the $80–$90 range, citing product innovation, AI initiatives like Square AI and Proto, and long‑term EPS guidance that slightly exceeded expectations at Block’s recent Investor Day. [25]
- Introduced high‑end targets up to $105 (for example, from Citigroup), framing Block as a long‑term compounder if it can execute on Cash App monetization and BNPL integration. [26]
The consensus story: analysts expect mid‑teens earnings growth and see the current valuation as undemanding, but with more dispersion in targets than you’d see for a mature bank or card network.
What the bulls are saying about XYZ stock
Recent bullish analyses cluster around a few themes.
A December “bull case theory” article, drawing on Ye Ye’s Substack, argues that Block operates a differentiated fintech ecosystem where Square, Cash App and Afterpay form a closed loop between merchants and consumers, strengthened by Bitcoin infrastructure and music/creator initiatives like TIDAL. [27] Key points from that thesis include:
- Network effects: Merchants adopt Square’s POS and software stack, which connects directly into Cash App and Afterpay, driving repeat engagement and higher lifetime value on both sides.
- Super‑app potential: Cash App is evolving from peer‑to‑peer payments into a broader financial super‑app offering banking, investing and crypto, especially attractive to younger and underbanked users. [28]
- BNPL as a growth lever: Afterpay increases ticket sizes and frequency for merchants while pulling users deeper into Block’s ecosystem, with credit risk mitigated by merchant fees and proprietary underwriting. [29]
A popular long‑term take from The Motley Fool adds another angle: Jack Dorsey’s conviction that Bitcoin will become the “native currency of the internet.” The article suggests that Block’s integration of Bitcoin across Cash App, hardware, and developer tools gives it unique upside if that thesis plays out over the next decade. [30]
The bull camp also points to behavior from sophisticated investors. One October–November report highlighted Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest buying roughly $31 million of XYZ shares across its ETFs, interpreting the move as a high‑conviction bet on Block’s long‑term role in payments and crypto infrastructure. [31]
Finally, multiple valuation‑focused notes—from Forbes, Trefis and others—argue that after the recent slide, XYZ is trading near technical support zones in the low‑to‑mid $60s, with upside back toward the high‑$80s or low‑$90s if execution stays on track. [32]
And what the bears (and skeptics) are worried about
Not everyone is rushing to buy the dip.
A recent piece on Seeking Alpha, titled along the lines of “The Story Is Mixed, I’m Not Buying the Dip,” points to rising Cash App loan delinquencies and BNPL credit risk as reasons to be cautious, especially if the economic environment weakens. [33]
Other bearish or neutral arguments include:
- Regulatory overhang: The multi‑state BNPL probe could lead to stricter rules, higher compliance costs, or constraints on fee structures for Afterpay and similar products, potentially hurting growth or margins. [34]
- Credit-cycle sensitivity: The same leverage that boosts Cash App growth via lending and BNPL can cut the other way if loss rates normalize upward from unusually benign levels. [35]
- Bitcoin dependence: Nearly one‑third of revenue in Q3 came from Bitcoin activity. That may be a feature to some investors, but it adds another layer of volatility and regulatory uncertainty on top of core payment operations. [36]
- Valuation is not “deep value”: While Simply Wall St’s fair‑value models and P/E comparisons suggest some discount to intrinsic value, one of their pieces estimates a fair value around $56.55 per share, implying that at ~$61 the stock could be slightly over fair value by that model, not dramatically cheap. [37]
In short, skeptics don’t deny Block’s franchise strength; they question whether the risk‑adjusted payoff is attractive given regulatory, credit and crypto exposure.
Key risks and catalysts to watch into 2026
Looking beyond December 7, several issues are likely to drive XYZ’s path from here:
- Outcome of the BNPL probe: Any enforcement actions, settlements, or new state‑level rules affecting Afterpay and peers like Affirm and PayPal could change growth and profitability assumptions for the entire BNPL segment. [38]
- Credit trends in Cash App Borrow and BNPL: Investors will be watching whether the spike in transaction and loan losses seen in Q3 was a one‑off effect of rapid growth, or the start of a more troublesome trend. [39]
- Next earnings (currently scheduled for February 19, 2026): Analysts will scrutinize guidance for 2026–2028, especially around margin expansion, AI‑driven productivity gains, and the evolution of Bitcoin revenue. [40]
- Holiday quarter follow‑through: Strong BFCM metrics are encouraging, but investors will want to see whether elevated transaction volumes and BNPL engagement persist through the rest of Q4. [41]
Bottom line: how does XYZ stock look after December’s headlines?
As of December 7, 2025, XYZ sits at an interesting crossroads:
- The business is performing well by conventional metrics: double‑digit gross‑profit growth, Q3 EPS beating expectations, strong holiday spending data and ample liquidity. [42]
- Regulatory and credit risks are rising, particularly around BNPL and Cash App lending. The seven‑state probe is a concrete sign that oversight is tightening. [43]
- Wall Street, on balance, still likes the stock, with a consensus “Buy/Outperform” rating and average 12‑month price targets clustered in the $80–$85 range—roughly 30–40% above recent prices. [44]
That leaves XYZ as a high‑beta fintech with a solid franchise and meaningful upside if Block executes and the regulatory environment remains manageable—but also with enough moving parts (credit, crypto, BNPL, AI, macro) that outcomes are likely to be volatile.
For readers, the most important step is to align any view on XYZ with their own risk tolerance, time horizon, and diversification needs. No single article—or analyst price target—should substitute for a full look at the company’s filings and your own financial circumstances.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. simplywall.st, 3. www.gurufocus.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. simplywall.st, 6. public.com, 7. investors.block.xyz, 8. finviz.com, 9. finviz.com, 10. www.gurufocus.com, 11. www.gurufocus.com, 12. www.gurufocus.com, 13. www.gurufocus.com, 14. www.theblock.co, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. investors.block.xyz, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. www.marketscreener.com, 24. www.chartmill.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. finviz.com, 27. finviz.com, 28. finviz.com, 29. finviz.com, 30. www.fool.com, 31. www.theblock.co, 32. www.forbes.com, 33. seekingalpha.com, 34. finviz.com, 35. www.gurufocus.com, 36. www.theblock.co, 37. simplywall.st, 38. finviz.com, 39. www.gurufocus.com, 40. public.com, 41. www.nasdaq.com, 42. www.gurufocus.com, 43. finviz.com, 44. www.marketbeat.com
