SINGAPORE (Dec. 20, 2025) — Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd (SGX: BS6) closed the week in focus after finishing Dec 19 as the biggest decliner on the Straits Times Index, falling 2.9% (S$0.10) to S$3.37, according to The Business Times. The Business Times
With the Singapore market shut over the weekend, S$3.37 is effectively the latest reference price going into the new week. Investing.com’s listing for Yangzijiang Shipbuilding shows the stock trading at 3.370 as of Dec 20, 2025, with a previous close of 3.470 and a 52‑week range of 1.800 to 3.580. Investing
So what’s actually driving the stock narrative right now? The short version: a still‑massive order book, improving 2H order momentum, strong margins in 1H 2025, and rising analyst targets — set against a backdrop of shipping geopolitics (U.S. port‑fee policy) and sanctions‑compliance headlines that have periodically jolted sentiment.
The key numbers investors keep circling
Yangzijiang’s own 3QFY2025 business update materials (as of 17 November 2025) frame the current investment debate around three operational datapoints:
- Year‑to‑date order wins:US$2.17 billion (with the company noting a rebound versus 1H 2025) SGX Links
- Outstanding order book:US$22.8 billion (with “clean‑energy vessels” accounting for 71% of value) SGX Links
- Deliveries:46 vessels delivered year‑to‑date, described as 82% of the FY2025 target of 56 vessels SGX Links
Those numbers matter for a simple reason: for a shipbuilder, the stock often trades like a referendum on multi‑year revenue visibility and margin durability, not just the next quarter’s earnings.
Order book: the “gravity well” under the share price
Multiple sources converge on the same headline reality: Yangzijiang is sitting on a very large backlog by historical standards.
- The company’s 3QFY2025 presentation puts the outstanding order book at US$22.8 billion (as of 17 Nov 2025) and explicitly links it to revenue visibility into 2029 and beyond. SGX Links
- Seatrade Maritime reports the group has 245 orders on hand valued around US$22.8 billion, with the latest delivery scheduled as far as 2030, and describes the book as 126 container ships, 46 bulk carriers, 26 gas carriers, and 47 oil tankers. Seatrade Maritime News
- The Business Times similarly reports the order book at about US$22.8 billion from 245 vessels, and adds that container ships remained dominant, citing US$16.2 billion across 126 vessels. The Business Times
What’s especially notable is the mix shift: management and analysts repeatedly highlight that green/clean‑energy designs are now the majority of order book value (around 71% in the late‑2025 snapshot). SGX Links
That mix matters because cleaner propulsion and “future‑proofed” specifications typically come with higher complexity, and (when priced well) better profitability than commodity shipbuilding.
Profitability: 1H 2025 showed how powerful the margin machine can be
Yangzijiang’s 1H 2025 results were a major pillar of the 2025 bull case, because they demonstrated that the company could translate backlog into unusually strong profitability.
In its Aug 6, 2025 media release, Yangzijiang reported:
- Net profit up 37% to RMB 4.2 billion (record) SGX Links
- Shipbuilding margin reaching 35% for 1H 2025 SGX Links
- Revenue relatively flat at RMB 12.9 billion, while gross profit increased sharply (helped by lower steel costs, favorable contract pricing, and deliveries of large dual‑fuel containerships) SGX Links
- Net cash position of RMB 18.3 billion as of 30 June 2025 SGX Links
The Business Times also reported the same core picture: a record‑high 4.2 billion yuan net profit for 1H 2025, revenue of 12.9 billion yuan, and a higher net profit margin (alongside details about associated-company contributions). The Business Times
For stock watchers, the question going into 2026 is less “can they earn?” and more “can they keep margins elevated as the cycle evolves and capacity expands?”
Order wins in 2025: rebound in the second half, but still far below 2024’s surge
If 1H 2025 was about margins, 2025 order momentum was about a mid‑year slowdown — followed by a rebound.
Yangzijiang’s 3QFY2025 materials put year‑to‑date order wins at US$2.17 billion and describe the company as seeing improved sentiment and a modest recovery in order momentum, while also emphasizing that industry lead times remain long. SGX Links
But in context, 2025 still looks muted versus 2024’s extraordinary contract cycle. The same company deck shows FY2024 order wins of US$14.60 billion (versus US$2.17 billion year‑to‑date in 2025 as of mid‑November). SGX Links
The Business Times reported Yangzijiang’s year‑to‑date orders at about US$2.2 billion as of Nov 17, 2025, noting that this was roughly a fifth of the US$11.6 billion order wins recorded in the same period the year before. The Business Times
Analysts have largely interpreted the 2025 slowdown as a function of macro uncertainty and policy noise, rather than any operational breakdown — particularly because deliveries and orderbook execution stayed steady. DBS Research’s May 2025 note described a “wait‑and‑see” approach among shipowners amid tariff/USTR concerns, while emphasizing a robust order backlog and deliveries tracking target. DBS Bank
Geopolitics: U.S. port-fee policy whiplash is still a risk factor
One of the strangest features of Yangzijiang’s 2025 share-price story is that a Chinese-built ship entering a U.S. port can move the stock — even though Yangzijiang is primarily a builder, not an operator.
The reason is indirect but important: if U.S. policy raises the cost of deploying China-built vessels into U.S. trade lanes, some shipowners may prefer ordering outside China — potentially affecting future newbuild demand distribution.
Reuters reported earlier in 2025 that proposed U.S. measures could include fees up to US$1.5 million per Chinese-built ship entering U.S. ports, with major liner CMA CGM warning such fees would hit the whole industry because a large share of the global container fleet is China-built. Reuters
In Singapore, the policy shift became visible in price action. The Business Times reported that Yangzijiang surged in April 2025 after the U.S. watered down its initial proposal, with analysts suggesting the move could ease market concerns over cancellations or renegotiations. The Business Times The Straits Times similarly reported the USTR’s softened stance and described how the earlier proposal had driven the February sell-off. The Straits Times
Later in 2025, Reuters cited a CSIS analysis indicating Chinese shipyards still captured 53% of global ship orders by tonnage in the first eight months of 2025, despite U.S. port-fee pressure. Reuters
Net-net: the port-fee theme is not gone. It’s simply shifted from “immediate shock” to “ongoing policy headline risk” — especially for any shipyard with a big China footprint.
Compliance risk: the US$180 million termination that became a headline
A second 2025 storyline wasn’t macro — it was compliance.
On Sep 27, 2025, Yangzijiang disclosed it had terminated shipbuilding contracts for four 50,000 DWT MR oil tankers with an aggregate contract value of approximately US$180 million, citing allegations that the buyer’s sole shareholder was involved in circumventing U.S. sanctions laws and regulations. The company said it did not expect a material impact on net tangible assets or earnings per share for FY ending Dec 31, 2025. SGX Links
The Business Times’ coverage added detail on deposits: a 10% deposit (US$18 million) received at signing, and an additional 10% instalment collected for one vessel where construction had commenced. The Business Times
Importantly for the stock narrative, the same Business Times report noted that Yangzijiang also secured additional contracts for eight vessels with an aggregate value of US$440 million, including containerships (with Seaspan named as a customer for two 11,800 TEU vessels) and bulk carriers, scheduled for delivery between 2027 and 2029. The Business Times
This episode cut both ways for investor perception:
- It introduced sanctions and counterparty risk as a discussion topic.
- It also showcased the company’s willingness to walk away from problematic counterparties — arguably a long-run positive for governance and risk control.
Contract pipeline: orderbook updates and what they imply about capacity
Yangzijiang has continued to announce contract additions through 2025, including an SGX filing on Aug 29, 2025 stating that it secured additional shipbuilding contracts for 22 vessels with an aggregate value of US$0.92 billion. The filing also summarized that the group had secured 36 effective contracts year-to-date with an aggregate value of US$1.46 billion as of that point, with deliveries scheduled between 2027 and 2029. SGX Links
Taken together with the November order‑win rebound, the arc looks like this:
- Early 2025: slow order intake amid policy uncertainty and industry capacity constraints. DBS Bank
- Mid-to-late 2025: smaller-to-mid sized orders returning, with management and analysts watching for the next wave of larger “green” vessel deals. SGX Links
Analyst forecasts: targets moved higher into year-end, but assumptions differ
Analyst outlooks are not facts about the future (they’re structured opinions), but they do tell you what the market is debating.
DBS Research (Nov 18, 2025) reiterated BUY with a target price of S$3.80, highlighting:
- YTD order wins US$2.17b
- outstanding orderbook US$22.8b
- deliveries at 82% of the FY2025 target (46 delivered)
- an “attractive dividend yield 4–5%”
- potential catalysts including large-vessel wins and stronger pricing for methanol/LNG dual-fuel units DBS Bank
UOB Kay Hian (reported Nov 19, 2025) raised its target price to S$4.10 and cited management confidence around potentially securing about US$4.5 billion in new orders for 2026, while expecting 2026 margins comparable to 2025 (with steel prices and USD/RMB stability among the supporting factors). The Edge Singapore
CGS International (reported Nov 19, 2025) reiterated an “add” call with a higher target price of S$4.51, while also trimming order expectations for FY2025 and FY2026 (reflecting competition and yard-slot availability constraints). The Edge Singapore
Zooming out to broader consensus: Investing.com shows 11 analysts with an overall “Strong Buy” consensus, an average 12‑month target around S$3.80 (high around S$4.52, low around S$1.60). Investing Fintel shows a similar average one‑year target around S$3.86 (with a wide forecast range). Fintel
Capital management: buybacks showed up in 2025
Yangzijiang also used buybacks as a signaling tool during the year. MarketScreener (citing S&P Capital IQ) reported the company repurchased 11,000,000 shares between Apr 4 and Apr 29, 2025, for about SGD 22.99 million, completing that buyback tranche. MarketScreener
Buybacks don’t change the shipbuilding cycle — but they can influence per-share metrics and market psychology, especially during policy-driven drawdowns.
What to watch next: the 2026 setup
Going into 2026, the stock’s direction will likely hinge on a handful of measurable indicators:
1) Can Yangzijiang refill delivery slots for 2028–2030 without giving back pricing?
Management has emphasized long industry lead times and limited tier‑1 yard slots, while analysts point to ongoing negotiations for additional contracts. SGX Links
2) Do margins stay elevated as the product mix gets greener and more complex?
DBS expects margins to benefit from a rising share of dual‑fuel and gas-carrier units and higher-value tonnage. DBS Bank
3) Does policy risk flare up again?
U.S. port fee policy has already shown it can move the stock via sentiment and future-order expectations. The Straits Times
4) Does compliance risk remain contained?
The 2025 tanker contract termination is a reminder that counterparty and sanctions risks can surface suddenly — and become headline events. SGX Links
Where the stock stands on Dec 20, 2025
As of Dec 20, 2025, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding is indicated at S$3.37, near the top end of its 52‑week range, after being flagged as the STI’s biggest decliner on Dec 19. Investing
For investors and readers tracking the name, the current snapshot is unusual in a good way: it’s not often a cyclical industrial stock can simultaneously point to record‑level profitability (1H 2025), multi‑year backlog visibility, and a green-tilted order book — while still trading under the shadow of geopolitics. The Straits Times
That combination is exactly why Yangzijiang Shipbuilding stock remains a regular fixture in Singapore market conversations heading into 2026.
