Yellow Cake Plc (LON:YCA): Uranium Price Proxy With Double‑Digit Upside? Latest News, Analyst Targets and 2026 Outlook

Updated 2 December 2025

Yellow Cake Plc has quietly become one of the purest listed ways to bet on the uranium price. The Jersey‑incorporated vehicle doesn’t mine or process uranium; it simply buys and stores uranium oxide (U₃O₈) and lets the commodity do the talking. ^[1]

As uranium prices hover near multi‑year highs and governments push nuclear power back into the energy mix, investor interest in Yellow Cake (ticker YCA in London, YLLXF over‑the‑counter in the US) has picked up again.

Below is a detailed look at the latest share price, Q3 numbers, analyst forecasts, and the key risks around this very niche, very focused stock.

Share price today and 2025 performance

On 2 December 2025, Yellow Cake’s London‑listed shares traded around 531 pence, based on real‑time estimates from MarketScreener. That’s a gain of roughly 5.8% year‑to‑date and a modest 0.2% rise over the last five trading days. ^[2]

StocksGuide shows a very similar live quote of £5.30 per share at 09:44 CET, underlining that the stock has been hovering in a narrow band around the £5.20–£5.40 level in recent sessions. ^[3]

For US investors following the OTC line, Yellow Cake’s YLLXF closed at $6.91 on 1 December 2025, down about 3.3% over the past ten days, with a 52‑week trading range between $4.81 and $8.04. ^[4]

The stock tends to be volatile in bursts. On 13 November, for example, London trading volume spiked more than 20‑fold above its average, as the shares climbed about 2% intraday to 535.5p. ^[5]

From a valuation angle, the company’s own pro‑forma net asset value (NAV) per share was estimated at 582p as of 27 October 2025. ^[6] With the share price now around 530p, Yellow Cake is trading at roughly a high‑single‑digit discount to NAV, though both NAV and the share price move with the uranium market and the USD/GBP exchange rate.

Business model in one sentence: a listed uranium vault

Yellow Cake’s strategy is deliberately simple:

raise equity capital,
use it to buy physical U₃O₈ at attractive prices,
store it at licensed facilities operated by Cameco in Canada and Orano in France, and
let shareholders participate in uranium price moves via the share price and NAV. ^[7]

The group doesn’t operate mines, doesn’t run reactors, and has minimal operating complexity compared with uranium producers. That makes YCA behave more like a closed‑end commodity fund than a typical energy stock.

Q3 2025 operating update: more uranium, higher NAV

Yellow Cake’s Quarterly Operating Update for the period to 30 September 2025 gives the clearest snapshot of where the company stands. ^[8]

Key points:

Uranium holdings:
The value of Yellow Cake’s uranium inventory rose from US$1.70 billion at 30 June to US$1.78 billion at 30 September 2025. The company held 21.68 million pounds of U₃O₈ at quarter‑end. ^[9]
Price tailwind:
That increase was driven by a move in the spot uranium price from US$78.50/lb at end‑June to US$82.00/lb at end‑September – a gain of about 4.5% over the quarter. ^[10]
NAV progression:
Estimated NAV per share climbed 5%, from £5.77 at 30 June to £6.06 at 30 September 2025, helped by the stronger uranium price and by weakness in sterling against the US dollar, the currency in which the uranium is priced. ^[11]
Capital raise:
On 29 September, Yellow Cake completed an oversubscribed equity placing of roughly 23 million new shares, raising £129.6 million (about US$175 million) gross to fund further uranium purchases. ^[12]
New uranium purchase:
Following the raise, the company exercised its 2025 option with Kazatomprom to acquire an additional 1.33 million pounds of U₃O₈ at US$75.08/lb (about US$100 million in total), with delivery scheduled for the first half of 2026. On completion, Yellow Cake’s holdings are expected to reach 23 million pounds. ^[13]
Pro‑forma NAV:
After adjusting for the placing proceeds and the Kazatomprom contract, Yellow Cake estimated its pro‑forma NAV at £5.82 per share (US$1.86 billion) as of 27 October 2025, based on a US$77.50/lb uranium spot price. ^[14]

Chief executive Andre Liebenberg used the update to underline that the World Nuclear Association’s Nuclear Fuel Report 2025 now projects global nuclear capacity to almost double by 2040, while warning that primary uranium supply looks increasingly tight. ^[15] In his view, that combination keeps the long‑term case for holding physical uranium “very compelling”, even if short‑term price swings remain sharp.

Uranium market backdrop: prices still near cycle highs

Yellow Cake’s fate is tied almost entirely to uranium prices, so the broader fuel market matters.

According to the American Nuclear Society’s Nuclear Newswire, the spot uranium price ended October 2025 at US$80.00/lb, slightly below the September peak of US$82.63/lb but well above the year’s low of US$64.23/lb in March. The long‑term contract price was reported at US$85.00/lb, the highest level of 2025. ^[16]

Uranium futures around early November sat near US$80.80/lb, with Trading Economics attributing the strength partly to expectations of higher global nuclear demand and a wave of supportive policy moves – including an US$80 billion US government deal with Westinghouse to construct new reactors. ^[17]

Consultancy DataM Intelligence projects the global uranium market could reach around US$13.6 billion by 2032, implying annual growth of about 4.9% from 2025 to 2032. ^[18]

Yellow Cake’s Q3 update mirrors this bullish tone, highlighting:

declining secondary supplies (such as inventories and underfeeding),
rising utility contracting, and
increasingly supportive policies for nuclear lifetimes, new large reactors and small modular reactors. ^[19]

The company does, however, stress that spot prices are likely to remain volatile in the near term – something investors in YCA have already experienced. ^[20]

Analyst ratings: consensus “Buy” with 20–30% implied upside

Across several data providers, analysts remain broadly constructive on Yellow Cake.

MarketBeat: 3 “Buy” ratings, 23.6% upside

MarketBeat’s dedicated Yellow Cake forecast page shows:

Consensus rating: Buy
Number of analysts: 3 (all “Buy”; zero Hold or Sell)
Average 12‑month target:655p
Target range:620p (low) to 675p (high)
Implied upside: about 23.6% from a reference price of 530p. ^[21]

A separate MarketBeat news item from 13 November notes that recent broker actions included:

Citigroup lifting its target from 570p to 670p with a “Buy” rating,
Royal Bank of Canada reiterating 620p and “Outperform”, and
Berenberg trimming its target from 682p to 675p while staying at “Buy”. ^[22]

At that time, MarketBeat quoted a market capitalisation of roughly £1.28 billion, a negative trailing P/E ratio of about –2.5, and a beta of just 0.27, illustrating both the unusual accounting for a commodity‑holding vehicle and its relatively low correlation with the broader market. ^[23]

Fintel: average target near 690p

Fintel’s forecast dashboard gives a somewhat higher average:

Latest share price (26 Nov 2025):522.5p
Average 1‑year price target:689.67p
Target range:555.50p – 871.50p
Implied upside vs that price: about 32%. ^[24]

These numbers are based on a small set of analyst forecasts (Fintel lists a historical series dominated by Berenberg plus other brokers).

MarketScreener: 7‑analyst “Buy” on the USD line

MarketScreener aggregates coverage on Yellow Cake’s US‑traded line and expresses the consensus in dollars:

Number of analysts: 7
Mean consensus: Buy
Last close:US$7.009
Average target:US$9.208
Target range:US$8.34 – US$11.26
Implied upside: about 31.4% to the average target. ^[25]

StocksGuide: 14 analysts, 2026 focus

StocksGuide, which tracks European equities, reports:

Current price:£5.30
Average 2026 price target:£6.83
High / low targets:£8.72 and £5.56
Implied upside: around 28.9% to the average.
Analyst stance: out of 14 analysts, 12 rate the stock “Buy” and 2 “Hold”, with no Sell ratings. ^[26]

Taken together, major analyst sources cluster around a mid‑20s to low‑30s percentage upside over 12 months, assuming uranium fundamentals remain supportive.

Fundamental forecasts: noisy numbers around a commodity bet

Because Yellow Cake’s reported “revenue” and profit are largely driven by fair value movements in its uranium inventory, earnings forecasts are inherently noisy. Still, aggregators try.

StocksGuide’s analyst estimates (partially visible without a subscription) suggest that for fiscal 2026:

Revenue is forecast around £131 million, up roughly 138% versus the last 12‑month period.
Net profit is projected at about £291 million, roughly 182% above the prior year.
Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to reach £1.34, again implying triple‑digit percentage growth versus 2025.
On those numbers, the stock would trade on a forward P/E of about 3.9x and an EV/Sales multiple near 9.5x for 2026. ^[27]

These figures should be treated with caution. A sharp move in uranium prices—or a change in accounting FX rates—can make reported earnings swing from heavily negative to heavily positive without any operational change in the business.

Simply Wall St’s more sceptical “Insufficient Growth” note underlines this point from another angle:

It calculates that Yellow Cake’s EPS fell 68% over the last year, and is down 45% over the past three years on a cumulative basis.
Looking ahead, its model assumes EPS will grow by only about 2.6% per year over the next three years, compared with 16% annual growth forecast for the broader UK market. ^[28]

On that basis, Simply Wall St argues that a relatively low P/E ratio versus the market is justified and that strong share‑price gains would require either better‑than‑expected earnings or a re‑rating.

In short: fundamental models disagree, largely because they have to translate a commodity storage vehicle into a conventional income statement. For Yellow Cake, NAV and uranium prices are usually more informative than headline EPS.

Ownership: institutions and ETFs sit alongside a large retail base

Understanding who owns the stock helps gauge how it might trade in stress.

Simply Wall St’s latest ownership breakdown suggests: ^[29]

Hedge funds hold around 9% of the shares.
The largest single shareholder, MM Asset Management Inc, also owns about 9%.
VanEck Associates controls roughly 8%, and Plenisfer Investments owns about 5.5%.
The top 13 shareholders together hold close to 50% of the company.
Insiders collectively own under 1% of the stock in their own names.
The general public (retail investors) owns about 46%.

This mix means Yellow Cake is neither a tightly‑held insider story nor purely an institutional playground. Retail flows and ETF allocations can both move the share price, especially when uranium sentiment swings.

Technical view: algorithmic models suggest short‑term caution

While fundamental analysts are mostly bullish, at least one technical service is more cautious in the near term.

StockInvest.us, which covers the US OTC line YLLXF, recently upgraded Yellow Cake from “Sell” to “Hold/Accumulate” as of 1 December 2025. ^[30]

Its AI‑driven model notes:

The share price fell 0.95% on 1 December, from $6.98 to $6.91, and has declined about 3.3% over the last 10 days.
The stock is trading in the middle of a wide, falling short‑term trend channel.
Based purely on price action, the system expects the stock could fall about 7.4% over the next three months, with a 90% probability of ending that period between $5.90 and $7.01.
It flags nearby support around $6.90 and resistance near $7.10. ^[31]

Importantly, this is a technical model, not a uranium market view. It reacts to recent trading patterns rather than fundamentals, which is why its conclusion (“hold, not yet a clear buy”) can diverge from brokers focused on the commodity cycle.

Upcoming catalysts: what could move Yellow Cake next?

Several near‑ and medium‑term events could jolt the share price—up or down:

Next company update (December 2025)
StockInvest’s calendar shows 10 December 2025 as the next scheduled reporting date for Yellow Cake, which should bring an updated NAV and commentary on the uranium market. Investors should check the company’s official site for confirmation. ^[32]
Delivery of Kazatomprom uranium in H1 2026
The arrival of the additional 1.33 million pounds of U₃O₈ will push holdings to 23 million pounds, increasing Yellow Cake’s leverage to any further price moves. ^[33]
Future capital raisings or option exercises
The company has a history of tapping equity markets when it believes the uranium price and investor appetite justify it. New placings or option exercises with Kazatomprom could again change the NAV and discount/premium dynamics.
Macro and policy headlines
- Further government support for nuclear build‑out
- Utility long‑term contracting waves
- New supply projects (or disruptions) from major producers
All can shift uranium prices quickly, feeding straight into Yellow Cake’s reported NAV.

Key risks to the Yellow Cake investment case

Despite the upbeat consensus, this is not a low‑risk stock. Major risk factors include:

1. Uranium price risk

Yellow Cake’s NAV is a direct function of the uranium spot and long‑term prices. A sharp decline in U₃O₈, whether from new mine supply or a demand shock, would erode NAV and likely the share price. The Q3 update explicitly notes that spot prices have been volatile and may continue to swing. ^[34]

2. Policy and sentiment risk around nuclear

Nuclear power is politically sensitive. While current trends are supportive, a major accident, policy reversal, or public backlash could reduce demand expectations and weigh on uranium pricing—regardless of Yellow Cake’s own execution.

3. FX and interest‑rate risk

Yellow Cake reports NAV in both US dollars and sterling. Because its uranium is priced in dollars, a stronger pound can reduce GBP NAV even if the uranium price doesn’t move. The Q3 uplift in NAV per share was partly driven by the depreciation of sterling against the US dollar, which can work in reverse. ^[35]

4. Discount/premium to NAV

Yellow Cake’s share price doesn’t always track NAV perfectly. The stock can:

trade at a premium when investor enthusiasm is high, or
sink to a deep discount when risk appetite dries up.

Either way, shareholders are exposed not only to uranium but also to shifting market sentiment towards this particular vehicle.

5. Concentrated strategy and limited diversification

Unlike diversified miners or nuclear utilities, Yellow Cake is essentially one asset class in one form: stored U₃O₈. That concentration makes the story clean, but it also means investors don’t get operational levers (like cost cutting or production growth) that might cushion a weaker commodity price.

Conclusion: a pure uranium play with leveraged upside – and matching downside

As of early December 2025, the picture around Yellow Cake Plc looks like this:

Macro backdrop: uranium prices are elevated, long‑term contract prices are at year highs, and nuclear energy policy momentum remains strong. ^[36]
Company fundamentals: NAV per share has risen alongside uranium prices; a well‑received placing has funded additional purchases that will increase holdings to 23 million pounds of U₃O₈ in 2026. ^[37]
Analyst sentiment: across MarketBeat, Fintel, MarketScreener and StocksGuide, consensus ratings lean firmly “Buy”, with implied 12‑month upside mostly in the 20–30% range from current levels. ^[38]
Market behaviour: technical models see short‑term mixed signals and moderate downside risk, reflecting recent price softness and volatility. ^[39]

For investors who explicitly want liquid, exchange‑traded exposure to uranium price movements, Yellow Cake remains one of the cleanest vehicles available. But the very features that make it attractive—concentrated exposure, leverage to uranium, and sensitivity to sentiment—also make it risky.

As always, anyone considering YCA or YLLXF should weigh:

how comfortable they are with commodity price swings,
how central nuclear exposure should be in their overall portfolio, and
whether a direct NAV‑linked vehicle suits their risk tolerance better than more diversified uranium miners or nuclear utilities.

References