New York — Friday, December 26, 2025, 9:08 a.m. ET. U.S. equities are not yet in the regular session as of this writing; the Nasdaq opens at 9:30 a.m. ET. [1]
That timing matters today because Zai Lab Limited (NASDAQ: ZLAB; HKEX: 9688) is entering the session with multiple company-specific catalysts on the board—most notably China’s approval of COBENFY for schizophrenia, plus updates tied to China’s National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) and progress in a key oncology program (zocilurtatug pelitecan, “zoci”). [2]
Meanwhile, the broader market backdrop is very “holiday week”: thin liquidity, a post‑Christmas reset, and investors still parsing the late‑year macro narrative (rates, risk appetite, sector rotation). [3]
Zai Lab stock price check: where ZLAB stands heading into the open
Zai Lab shares were indicated around $18.58 in early trading data, a level that also implies a market cap of roughly $2.1 billion. [4]
For context, ZLAB’s 52‑week range has been wide—about $16.82 to $44.34—and momentum indicators tracked by market-data aggregators have looked “washed out” (for example, an RSI near the high‑20s recently cited by StockAnalysis, a level many traders interpret as oversold). [5]
Translation: the bar for “good news” has arguably been lowered by the stock’s drawdown, but the flip side is that volatility can spike quickly when liquidity is thin—especially in pre‑market and the first 30 minutes after the bell.
The bigger tape this morning: a post‑Christmas, pre‑open reality check
Today (Dec. 26) is the first full trading day after the Christmas holiday closure. U.S. markets ran normal hours on Dec. 26; by contrast, Dec. 24 had an early close (1:00 p.m. ET) and Dec. 25 was closed. [6]
That structure often produces a quirky microclimate for price discovery: fewer participants, wider spreads, and a higher chance that single headlines or a couple of large orders can briefly distort the tape.
Macro-wise, headlines into today have leaned toward a classic late‑year mix: modestly shifting futures, eye‑catching moves in metals, and investors still focused on the Fed path and year‑end positioning. [7]
There’s also the seasonal-statistics crowd. MarketWatch highlighted research from Bespoke Investment Group arguing that December 26 has historically been among the most consistently positive days for the S&P 500 (history is not a trading system, but investors love a ritual). [8]
For Zai Lab specifically, the implication is straightforward: macro may set the mood, but ZLAB is still a headline-and-fundamentals stock—and it’s had no shortage of headlines lately.
What’s moving Zai Lab: the catalyst stack investors are weighing now
1) China approves COBENFY for schizophrenia: the “new mechanism” headline
On December 23, 2025, Zai Lab announced that China’s regulator (NMPA) approved COBENFY (xanomeline + trospium chloride) for the treatment of schizophrenia in adults. [9]
Why markets care:
- Schizophrenia is a large, chronic market, and Zai Lab is framing COBENFY as a major mechanistic shift away from standard dopamine‑blocking antipsychotics (COBENFY selectively activates muscarinic M1/M4 receptors). [10]
- The company also emphasized that COBENFY had already been included in China’s national-level schizophrenia treatment guidelines (2025 edition), which can matter for physician adoption and reimbursement conversations over time. [11]
Importantly, Zai Lab’s press release put real expert names behind the narrative. Dr. Rafael Amado (President, Head of Global R&D) called the approval a “groundbreaking milestone” for schizophrenia care in China, and Prof. Gang Wang (Beijing Anding Hospital, Capital Medical University) described COBENFY as a “truly new therapeutic approach” and highlighted the potential to improve multiple symptom domains while avoiding some adverse effects associated with traditional antipsychotics. [12]
Investor reality check: approval is the starting gun, not the finish line. The stock will likely trade the next steps—launch execution, pricing, uptake curves, and reimbursement trajectory—not just the “approved” headline.
2) NRDL renewals: protecting the commercial base (VYVGART, NUZYRA, ZEJULA)
On December 6, 2025, Zai Lab said three products/indications were renewed in China’s 2025 NRDL:
- VYVGART for AChR‑positive generalized myasthenia gravis (gMG)
- NUZYRA oral for CABP and ABSSSI
- ZEJULA for ovarian cancer maintenance settings [13]
That’s not as flashy as a new approval, but it’s commercially meaningful: NRDL status is tied to patient access and volume—often with pricing tradeoffs—so renewals can be read as reducing “policy risk” for existing revenue streams.
Andrew Zhu, Zai Lab’s Chief Commercial Officer for Greater China, explicitly positioned the renewals as validation of clinical value and a step toward broader access (and noted Zai Lab now has six products included on NRDL). [14]
3) Oncology engine: zoci (DLL3 ADC) and a global Phase 3 program
If you’re looking for the “swing for the fences” asset in the Zai Lab story, zoci is a major contender.
In an October 24, 2025 update, Zai Lab highlighted Phase 1 data for zocilurtatug pelitecan (zoci) in heavily pre-treated extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (ES‑SCLC), including:
- 68% ORR in a second‑line subset at the 1.6 mg/kg dose
- Activity in patients with baseline brain metastases (including an 80% ORR in a subgroup without prior brain radiotherapy)
- A safety profile the company characterized as potentially “best‑in‑class” at the 1.6 mg/kg dose cohort [15]
Zai Lab also stated that a global Phase 3 registrational trial (ZL‑1310‑003) had initiated and would enroll roughly 665 patients globally. [16]
Here, again, the “expert layer” matters: Grace Dy, M.D. (Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center) highlighted DLL3 as a validated target and described the Phase 1 results as additional evidence of potential differentiation. [17]
In plain English: zoci is one of the clearest routes for Zai Lab to be valued not just as a China commercial platform, but as a globally relevant pipeline company—which is the multiple expansion investors tend to dream about.
4) Immunology pipeline: ZL‑1503 dosing starts a global Phase 1/1b program
On December 8, 2025, Zai Lab announced dosing of the first participant in a global Phase 1/1b study for ZL‑1503, a bispecific antibody targeting IL‑13 and IL‑31R, aimed at moderate‑to‑severe atopic dermatitis. [18]
The company’s framing: IL‑13 is a key inflammatory driver, IL‑31 is associated with itch; hitting both pathways may support a differentiated profile in a very competitive AD market. [19]
The investor lens: early clinical programs don’t tend to move a stock on Day 1—until they do. The value here is optionality: new shots on goal beyond the current commercial portfolio, with global development ambitions. [20]
Financial performance: growth, guidance, and the “yes, but…” market reaction
Zai Lab’s most recent quarterly report (Q3 2025, released Nov. 6, 2025) showed:
- Total revenues up 14% year over year to $116.1 million
- Improved operating loss (and improved adjusted operating loss)
- Updated full‑year 2025 revenue guidance to at least $460 million
- Cash/cash equivalents/short‑term investments/current restricted cash totaling $817.2 million as of Sept. 30, 2025 [21]
Management’s tone in that release was unapologetically “build mode.” CEO Dr. Samantha Du described Zai Lab as entering the next growth phase driven by pipeline advancement and a scalable commercial business, while President/COO Josh Smiley emphasized ongoing efforts to deepen VYVGART adoption and prepare for the next expected launch. [22]
But markets rarely let a biotech have a purely inspirational arc.
Investing.com’s earnings-call writeup noted that Zai Lab’s reported revenue and adjusted loss per share missed certain analyst forecasts, and it described a negative stock reaction around the release. [23]
So the current setup is a familiar one in biotech-land: fundamental progress + execution skepticism. The December approvals/NRDL updates help the “progress” side; the stock’s drawdown reflects the “prove it in the numbers” side.
What Wall Street forecasts say about ZLAB now
Analyst data aggregators continue to show generally bullish consensus ratings and very large implied upside—though the details vary by source and methodology:
- MarketBeat lists a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” with an average price target around $56 (with high/low targets roughly $75 / $36). [24]
- StockAnalysis shows a consensus “Buy” and an average target around $57, and it also lists selected firm-level targets and rating actions (e.g., updates attributed to Citi and Leerink Partners earlier in 2025). [25]
- TipRanks shows a “Strong Buy” consensus and an average target in the mid‑$50s, with a wide dispersion between low and high targets. [26]
Two things investors should keep in mind before treating price targets like prophecy tablets:
- Some target sets were last updated months ago (and may not fully reflect December’s newsflow). [27]
- When a stock is trading in the teens, any biotech model that assumes successful launches + pipeline hits can spit out dramatic upside. That doesn’t mean the model is wrong; it means the distribution of outcomes is wide.
If you’re watching ZLAB today: what to know before the next session starts
Because the regular session hasn’t opened yet (as of 9:08 a.m. ET), here are the practical, market‑microstructure things that often matter most for ZLAB on a day like today:
Expect noisy price discovery early. December 26 trading often happens in a thinner, more seasonal tape (fewer big institutions fully staffed), so the open can exaggerate moves—especially for mid‑cap biotech ADRs. [28]
Watch whether the market “re-prices” the schizophrenia launch. COBENFY’s approval is substantial, but investors will quickly pivot to questions like: launch timing, salesforce focus, early uptake signals, and how reimbursement evolves. [29]
NRDL renewals reduce one category of downside, but pricing is always part of the deal. Renewals help continuity and access, but China reimbursement dynamics can involve pricing adjustments and competitive pressure—an issue Zai Lab itself has alluded to in discussing softer ZEJULA performance amid competitive dynamics. [30]
Technical levels traders may key on: with the stock near the lower end of its 52‑week range and RSI readings cited near oversold territory, you often get a split crowd—short‑term mean‑reversion traders versus longer‑term holders waiting for fundamentals to turn. [31]
The next catalysts to track in 2026
Zai Lab has laid out a fairly dense roadmap. From its Q3 2025 update, investors were pointed to 2026 as a year for multiple clinical data readouts (including further zoci updates and initial reads for ZL‑1503), plus potential regulatory and launch milestones in its broader portfolio. [32]
The takeaway: Zai Lab is trying to be two things at once—
- a commercial-stage China biopharma with durable access (NRDL, launches), and
- a pipeline-led global developer (zoci and other internal programs).
The stock’s next major re-rating likely depends on whether it can make those two identities reinforce each other rather than compete for resources.
References
1. www.barrons.com, 2. www.businesswire.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. www.barrons.com, 8. www.marketwatch.com, 9. www.businesswire.com, 10. www.businesswire.com, 11. www.businesswire.com, 12. www.businesswire.com, 13. www.businesswire.com, 14. www.businesswire.com, 15. www.businesswire.com, 16. www.businesswire.com, 17. www.businesswire.com, 18. www.businesswire.com, 19. www.businesswire.com, 20. www.businesswire.com, 21. www.businesswire.com, 22. www.businesswire.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. stockanalysis.com, 26. www.tipranks.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.businesswire.com, 30. www.businesswire.com, 31. stockanalysis.com, 32. www.businesswire.com
