Zip Co (ASX: ZIP) share price today: buy‑back ramp‑up, US dual‑listing plans and 2026 forecasts

Australia’s Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) has become one of the most closely watched names on the ASX again in late 2025. The buy now, pay later (BNPL) and digital payments group is running an aggressive on‑market share buy‑back, working on a potential US dual listing, fielding a new US regulatory inquiry and trying to convince investors that its hard‑won profitability is sustainable.

Below is a detailed wrap of what’s new on 9 December 2025, and how analysts currently see the stock.

Zip Co share price on 9 December 2025

As of early afternoon on 9 December 2025, Zip Co shares were trading around A$3.15–3.20, broadly flat on the day after opening softer. Zip’s own investor relations page showed a share price of about A$3.16 at 13:13 local time, while market data providers reported intraday trading between roughly A$3.06 and A$3.19. ^[1]

The current price sits well below the stock’s recent 52‑week high near A$4.93, but far above the 52‑week low around A$1.09, underscoring how extreme the two‑year rebound from its 2022–23 BNPL wipe‑out has been. ^[2]

Short‑term performance has been choppy:

Over the past week, third‑party trading platforms estimate the stock is down around 11–12%. ^[3]
Over the past month, the share price is off roughly 20–30%, according to both charting services and market commentary, including a recent note flagging that Zip’s one‑month drawdown was approaching 30%. ^[4]
On Monday 8 December, Zip rallied about 5.7% from A$2.98 to A$3.15, with trading volume rising sharply, a move short‑term technical models treat as a positive momentum signal. ^[5]

So, on 9 December the share price is stabilising after a sharp pull‑back, supported by buy‑back activity but still trading in a wide range that reflects both optimism on growth and persistent concern about BNPL risk.

Fresh on the tape: 9 December buy‑back update

The biggest “new” item today is a fresh Appendix 3C update to the ASX confirming progress on Zip’s on‑market share buy‑back. ^[6]

Key points from the 9 December 2025 filing:

Zip is running an on‑market buy‑back of its ordinary fully paid shares (ASX: ZIP).
The buy‑back was initially notified on 8 April 2025 and is scheduled to run from 23 April 2025 to 23 April 2026. ^[7]
On 20 October 2025, Zip doubled the target size of the program from up to A$50 million of ordinary shares to up to A$100 million, after having already repurchased about 17.8 million shares for A$43.4 million. ^[8]
The company now discloses a maximum of 100 million shares that may be bought back under the program. ^[9]

As of the 9 December update:

Total shares bought back before 8 December: 31,637,407
Shares bought back on 8 December: 650,000
Total shares repurchased so far (including 8 December): 32,287,407
That’s roughly 2.5% of the 1.31 billion shares on issue in the buy‑back class. ^[10]
Cash spent so far: just over A$92 million in aggregate consideration, including about A$2.0 million for the 650,000 shares bought on 8 December (an average price close to A$3.08). ^[11]
Remaining headroom under the 100 million‑share limit: 67,712,593 shares. ^[12]

The filing also notes that since the program began, the highest price paid per share has been A$4.66, and the lowest about A$1.56, a range that neatly captures Zip’s wild volatility through 2025. ^[13]

Why the buy‑back matters

On paper, an on‑market buy‑back of this size is significant:

It signals board confidence in Zip’s balance sheet and earnings trajectory.
It gradually reduces the share count, which can support earnings per share and potentially the share price over time, assuming profits keep rising.
It provides a demand “floor” on weak days, as the company itself is a large buyer in the market – visible in the 650,000 shares bought on 8 December. ^[14]

However, with roughly two‑thirds of the authorised shares still unused and Zip already having spent more than A$90 million, investors are also watching how much more capital management the company can justify while funding growth and absorbing regulatory and credit risk.

Regulatory overhang: inquiry from US State Attorneys General

While the buy‑back is supportive, one of the key new risk headlines this month is a regulatory inquiry in the United States.

On 2 December 2025, MT Newswires reported that Zip is assessing a voluntary request following an inquiry letter from US State Attorneys General offices. The company is reviewing the request and considering a voluntary response. ^[15]

A companion note quoted analysts at Jefferies arguing that the Attorney General inquiry is likely to have “minimal impact” on Zip, suggesting that while the request adds an extra layer of regulatory noise, it is not expected – at this stage – to materially alter the company’s financial outlook. ^[16]

The details of the inquiry have not been fully disclosed, but it appears consistent with a broader push by US regulators and state authorities to scrutinise BNPL providers’ marketing, disclosures and consumer‑protection practices.

For now:

The request is framed as a voluntary information process, not a formal charge. ^[17]
The company has said it is engaging with the request, while Jefferies’ base case is that any operational or financial impact should be limited. ^[18]

Investors, understandably, are baking regulatory risk into their required return, especially given Zip’s expansion in the US market and its ambitions for a US listing.

Funding and balance sheet: new US warehouse facility and capital update

Another major pillar of the current Zip story is its funding structure.

On 6–7 November 2025, Zip announced that it had established a new US$283.4 million, two‑year US warehouse facility, alongside an earlier A$400 million Australian note issuance. ^[19]

A detailed write‑up from ShareCafe and MT Newswires highlighted that:

The new US facility is intended to fund Zip’s US receivables, matching assets and liabilities more efficiently in local currency. ^[20]
Combined with the Australian notes, the package significantly reduces Zip’s funding costs and lengthens its funding tenor, improving the overall quality of the balance sheet according to analysts at E&P. ^[21]
In associated disclosures, Zip reiterated that it does not expect to pay cash dividends “in the foreseeable future”, preferring to reinvest cash and support growth. ^[22]

From a credit‑quality perspective, cheaper and more diversified funding is good news. But as any lender knows, lower funding cost only matters if credit losses remain contained – which brings us to the earnings story.

Profitability and growth: from FY25 turnaround to Q1 FY26

Zip’s new‑look balance sheet is underpinned by a sharp improvement in earnings over the past two years.

According to financial data aggregators:

FY2025 revenue: about A$1.07 billion, up 23% from roughly A$868 million in the prior year.
FY2025 net profit: around A$79.9 million, an astonishing increase of over 2,000% (from a very low prior base). ^[23]

Earlier in 2025, Reuters reported that the company posted record quarterly cash earnings and raised its FY2025 earnings forecast, sending the shares more than 18% higher on the day. ^[24]

More recently:

In August 2025, Zip released its full‑year figures and unveiled a plan for a secondary US listing, prompting a >25% intraday surge to the highest share price in more than three years, according to Reuters. ^[25]
In October 2025, MT Newswires reported that Zip delivered Q1 FY26 group cash EBTDA of about A$62.8 million, with results largely in line with expectations and guidance reaffirmed, suggesting the earnings recovery is holding up so far. ^[26]

Independent analysis of the FY25 turnaround has emphasised three themes:

Much tighter credit controls, reducing bad debts.
A focus on the two core markets – Australia/New Zealand and the US – instead of prior global sprawl. ^[27]
A shift from “growth at all costs” to a more conventional profitability and unit economics mindset. Several analysts note that Zip has effectively reinvented itself as a more disciplined consumer‑credit provider rather than a pure high‑burn fintech. ^[28]

That said, even bullish commentators describe this as an “early‑stage comeback”: the task now is to sustain growth while credit losses remain controlled and regulatory risk does not spike. ^[29]

US dual‑listing plans: confidential SEC filing

One of the most strategically important developments for Zip in late 2025 is its progress toward a US dual listing.

On 9–10 November 2025, Reuters and MT Newswires reported that Zip had submitted a confidential draft registration statement to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as part of its ongoing consideration of a secondary listing in the United States, likely on Nasdaq. ^[30]

The move formalises what the company flagged back in August: using a dual listing to:

Broaden its investor base, particularly among US growth and fintech funds. ^[31]
Better align its listing footprint with its operating footprint, given the importance of the US business to revenue and earnings. ^[32]

Confidential draft filings are standard practice: the SEC reviews the document privately before it is made public closer to any eventual listing. ^[33]

For shareholders, a successful dual listing could:

Improve liquidity and visibility, especially among US investors already familiar with BNPL peers.
Potentially drive a re‑rating if US investors assign higher multiples to profitable fintech lenders than Australian markets currently do.

On the other hand, a US listing also increases regulatory scrutiny, disclosure load and execution risk – making the recent US State Attorneys General inquiry particularly sensitive. ^[34]

Current analyst forecasts and valuation views

Across major data platforms, Zip currently screens as profitable, volatile and, in many models, still undervalued.

Consensus ratings and price targets

One widely followed aggregation of analyst views shows: ^[35]

Consensus rating: “Buy”
Analyst breakdown: 8 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell (last 3 months).
Average 12‑month price target: about A$5.10 per share.
Target range: low around A$3.50, high near A$6.20.

Against a current share price a little above A$3.10, that average target implies roughly 50–60% upside over 12 months, though obviously there are no guarantees and target prices often move with the newsflow.

Some fair‑value models discussed by market commentators suggest:

A “narrative fair value” near A$5.10, based on Zip’s projected earnings ramp. ^[36]
A more conservative model where Zip is only around 3% undervalued versus intrinsic value, implying a more modest discount for growth investors. ^[37]

The spread between these estimates reflects genuine disagreement about the sustainability of recent earnings and the scale of future growth in the US.

Earnings and revenue forecasts

TradingView’s consensus numbers point to: ^[38]

Last reported EPS: about A$0.04, ahead of expectations closer to A$0.03.
Next‑quarter EPS forecast: roughly A$0.02.
Next‑quarter revenue forecast: around A$662 million.

These figures sit within the context of FY2025 revenue of around A$1.07 billion and net profit of ~A$79.9 million, indicating that analysts expect Zip to remain profitable but with some quarter‑to‑quarter volatility as funding costs, credit losses and marketing investments ebb and flow. ^[39]

Technical picture: volatility, momentum and the BNPL hangover

On the technical side, Zip continues to behave like a high‑beta growth stock:

Charting services show the share price down around 21–22% over the past month and moderately lower over the past year (about an 8% decline), even after a huge rally off the 2023 lows. ^[40]
At the same time, a 2024 performance review noted that the Zip share price had risen over 365% in that year and more than 1,050% from its 2023 bottom, pushing its market cap above A$3.8 billion at the time. ^[41]
Short‑term trading models flagged bullish signals after the 5.7% jump on 8 December, driven by rising volume, but also cautioned that volatility and the recent down‑trend leave the stock exposed to further swings. ^[42]

In other words, Zip is still very much a trader’s stock: liquidity and newsflow can move it 5–10% in a single session, and long‑term investors need a strong stomach for drawdowns.

What Zip actually does in 2025 (and why that matters)

Under the hood, Zip today looks more like a disciplined digital credit and payments platform than the free‑wheeling BNPL unicorn of 2020:

It operates mainly in Australia & New Zealand and the United States, offering point‑of‑sale instalment credit, virtual cards and app‑based payment solutions. ^[43]
It connects millions of customers to tens of thousands of merchants, competing with traditional credit cards, bank offerings and other BNPL players. ^[44]
The business model depends on managing credit risk and funding costs while maintaining enough growth in transaction volume to cover fixed costs and investment in technology and compliance. ^[45]

This context is crucial when interpreting the news:

The buy‑back is accretive only if the profitability being reported now is sustainable across the cycle.
The funding upgrades in November matter because cheap, reliable funding is essential for any lender scaling up in the US. ^[46]
The US regulatory inquiry matters because Zip’s long‑term valuation depends heavily on how comfortable regulators are with BNPL‑style products and their consumer‑protection settings. ^[47]

Key upside and downside drivers investors are watching

Putting the latest news together, here are the main themes shaping Zip’s stock on 9 December 2025:

Potential upside drivers

Execution on US dual listing: A successful Nasdaq (or similar) listing could deepen liquidity and attract growth‑oriented US capital, potentially supporting a higher multiple if earnings hold up. ^[48]
Continued earnings growth: The FY25 and Q1 FY26 numbers show that Zip can be solidly profitable at scale, with substantial revenue growth and strong cash EBTDA. Maintaining or improving these trends would support the bullish analyst targets around A$5–6. ^[49]
Balance‑sheet strength and buy‑back support: The new funding facilities and ongoing buy‑back could keep the balance sheet relatively robust and support per‑share metrics as long as credit quality remains controlled. ^[50]

Key risks

Regulatory risk in the US: The State Attorneys General inquiry is only a voluntary request at this stage, but it highlights the possibility of stricter rules or enforcement actions against BNPL providers. ^[51]
Credit‑cycle sensitivity: As a non‑bank lender, Zip is exposed to shifts in consumer credit quality. A cyclical spike in bad debts, particularly in the US, could quickly erode profitability. ^[52]
Execution and competition: The company is competing not just with other BNPL firms but with major banks, card issuers and tech‑driven players. Any stumble in product execution, funding access or merchant relationships could weigh on growth. ^[53]
Valuation and volatility: Even after the recent correction, Zip has already rallied more than 10x from its 2023 lows. Small disappointments can trigger big moves in either direction, as recent 20–30% swings over a single month illustrate. ^[54]

Bottom line: What 9 December 2025 tells you about Zip Co stock

On 9 December 2025, Zip Co is a profitable but still high‑risk fintech lender sitting at the intersection of three big storylines:

Capital management – a sizeable on‑market buy‑back that has already retired more than 32 million shares and could, in theory, buy back up to 100 million by April 2026. ^[55]
Strategic scaling – a rebuilt funding stack, improving earnings and a planned US dual listing that collectively aim to transform Zip from a regional BNPL casualty into a global, regulated digital credit platform. ^[56]
Regulatory scrutiny and volatility – the new US State Attorneys General inquiry, the legacy of BNPL scepticism and the stock’s violent price swings mean that even bullish analysts highlight meaningful downside risk alongside upside potential. ^[57]

Most broker models today still lean “Buy”, with price targets well above current levels, but the range of outcomes remains wide and strongly dependent on regulation, credit conditions and the success of Zip’s US strategy. ^[58]