Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) has gone from turnaround story to one of the ASX’s most closely watched growth names in 2025, powered by booming U.S. demand for buy now, pay later (BNPL) and a sharp swing back to profitability.
As at early afternoon on 1 December 2025, Zip shares are trading around A$3.37, giving the company a market capitalisation of about A$4.36 billion. Over the past year the stock has traded between A$1.085 and A$4.93, with a trailing twelve‑month P/E ratio of about 55.7 and a forward P/E near 37, underlining that investors are paying up for growth.
Below is a detailed look at the latest results, news, analyst forecasts and key risks for Zip Co as at 1 December 2025.
What Zip Co does in 2025
Zip Co is a digital financial services and payments company operating mainly in Australia, New Zealand and the United States. It offers:
- BNPL instalment products
- Lines of credit and personal finance
- Point‑of‑sale and digital payment services
The company connects millions of customers with tens of thousands of merchants through its platforms.
After several years of restructuring and exiting non‑core international markets, Zip is now heavily focused on scaling its core ANZ and U.S. operations.
2025 performance: from survival mode to profitable scale
FY25 results: revenue above A$1 billion and strong operating leverage
For the financial year ended 30 June 2025 (FY25), Zip delivered what management has framed as a decisive turnaround:
- Revenue / total income: Just over A$1.07 billion, up about 23% year on year.
- Cash EBTDA (a key profit metric for Zip): A$170.3 million, up 147% versus FY24.
- Operating margin (cash EBTDA / total income): 15.8%, roughly double FY24’s margin.
- Total transaction volume (TTV): A$13.1 billion, a rise of 30.3% year on year.
Commentary around the FY25 update highlighted:
- Strong U.S. growth, which has become the main earnings engine
- Improved credit performance and bad debts under control
- A shift from cash burn to sustained positive cash earnings
In April 2025, Zip reported record quarterly cash earnings and upgraded its FY25 EBTDA guidance to at least A$153 million, sending the share price sharply higher on the day.
Share buyback: A$50m then A$100m
Capital management has been a major theme:
- In April 2025, Zip announced an on‑market share buyback of up to A$50 million, prompting the stock to jump more than 8% and briefly gain over 20% intraday as investors welcomed the signal of balance sheet strength and management confidence.
- On 20 October 2025, alongside its first‑quarter FY26 update, Zip doubled the buyback limit to A$100 million.
By early October, the company had already repurchased around 17.8 million shares for A$43.4 million under the program.
Buybacks are notable in a sector where many peers are still focused on repairing balance sheets rather than returning capital.
1Q FY26: record quarter and upgraded U.S. growth guidance
Zip’s momentum continued into FY26. In its 1Q FY26 results update for the quarter to 30 September 2025, the company reported:
- Record cash EBTDA: A$62.8m, up 98% vs 1Q25
- TTV: A$3.9b, up 38.7% year on year
- Total income: A$321.5m, up 32.8%
- Operating margin: 19.5% (vs 13.1% in the prior corresponding quarter)
- Transactions: 26.0m, up 21.9%
- Active customers: 6.4m, up 5.3%
- Merchants: 87,500+, up 9.1% year on year
- Net bad debts: 1.6% of TTV – unchanged from 1Q25, suggesting credit quality remains stable.
Growth was particularly strong in the United States:
- U.S. TTV and revenue rose 47.2% and 51.2% (in USD) year on year
- U.S. active customers increased 12.2% (around 483,000 more customers)
In Australia and New Zealand, TTV grew 11.1% year on year, driven in part by the Zip Plus product, with both revenue and receivables returning to growth.
Market reaction to Q1
The first‑quarter update was well received:
- Commentators noted that Zip’s cash EBTDA beat expectations, with Proactive Investors highlighting the 98% year‑on‑year growth and margin expansion to 19.5%, as the stock jumped around 7% to A$4.71 in the immediate aftermath.
- Capital Brief reported that Zip upgraded its U.S. TTV growth target from “above 35%” to “above 40%” for the year and doubled the buyback limit to A$100m, calling it a positive result in a seasonally challenging quarter.Capital Brief
The company’s own commentary emphasised “sustainable, profitable growth at scale” and highlighted the combination of strong unit economics, operating leverage and disciplined execution.Zip Co+1
Strategic developments: Nasdaq dual listing and Stripe partnership
Potential Nasdaq dual listing
In its FY25 results update and investor materials, Zip confirmed it is considering a dual listing on the Nasdaq while maintaining its primary ASX listing, subject to board and regulatory approvals.
A U.S. listing could:
- Broaden the shareholder base among U.S. growth and fintech investors
- Better align the listing venue with the company’s largest growth market
- Potentially increase trading liquidity and valuation multiples
However, it would also introduce additional costs, regulatory complexity and exposure to U.S. market sentiment.
Stripe partnership expansion
On 23 October 2025, news services reported that Zip’s shares were up nearly 2% after the company announced it had expanded its partnership with Stripe, the global payments platform.
While details were limited in public summaries, deeper Stripe integration typically means:
- Easier merchant onboarding for BNPL at checkout
- Greater access to global e‑commerce volumes
- Tighter embedding into the online payments stack
For Zip, this complements its strategy of scaling transaction volumes with large, diversified merchant bases.
Governance and AGM 2025: steady support from shareholders
Zip held its 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM) in early November:
- TipRanks reports that Zip released detailed AGM presentation materials, reiterating its strategy and commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement.
- A separate update noted that all AGM resolutions were passed by poll, signalling strong shareholder support for the board and strategy.
TipRanks also notes that the most recent published analyst rating on Zip is a “Buy” with a price target of A$5.40.TipRanks+1
A key governance milestone occurred earlier when co‑founder Larry Diamond stepped down as U.S. chairman and from his remaining roles to establish a family office, amid speculation about large share sales after a year of substantial share price gains. The company has since been led by CEO Cynthia Scott, who has become the public face of the turnaround.
Share price moves in late 2025: big rally, big volatility
Zip’s share price action through 2025 has been anything but dull:
- A Motley Fool article in early October noted that Zip shares were up around 55% in 2025 and about 190% over six months, reflecting a dramatic re‑rating as investors embraced the profitability story.
- The Australian Financial Review’s Chanticleer column highlighted how U.S. “pay‑to‑pay” consumers and the broader BNPL uptick had powered a “stunning six‑month surge” in the stock.AfR
- On 22 August, when Zip released its FY25 results and flagged the potential Nasdaq dual listing, The Bull reported that the shares surged more than 25%, hitting their highest level in over three years.
More recently, at the end of November 2025, the stock experienced a sharp pullback and subsequent bounce:
- On 28 November, coverage from Motley Fool noted that Zip shares rebounded about 19% in a single week, despite no price‑sensitive announcements, underlining how sentiment and momentum can dominate short‑term trading in high‑beta growth names.
With a beta above 3, Zip remains significantly more volatile than the broader ASX market.
Analyst forecasts: upside, but already priced for growth
Several data providers and broker aggregation platforms show a broadly positive, but not unanimous, analyst stance on Zip:
- TradingView lists an average 12‑month price target of about A$5.36, with estimates ranging from A$4.50 to A$6.20.
- Moomoo data shows an average target around A$5.10, with the same A$4.50–6.20 range, last updated in early November 2025.
- Fintel / Nasdaq report an average one‑year target of roughly A$5.43, increased by about 16% from a prior estimate, with a current range of A$4.54 to A$6.51.
- TipRanks cites the most recent individual analyst rating as Buy with a A$5.40 target.
Against today’s share price near A$3.37, these consensus‑style targets cluster in the A$5.1–5.4 zone – implying roughly 50–60% upside if they prove accurate.
However, it’s important to remember:
- Targets are forecasts, not guarantees
- They can change quickly with new data or macro shifts
- BNPL remains a cyclical, sentiment‑driven sector where multiples can compress rapidly if growth slows or credit costs rise
Given Zip’s current P/E above 55 and high beta, the market is clearly assuming:
- Continued strong U.S. growth
- Maintenance of tight credit control
- Successful execution on funding, capital management and possibly a U.S. listing
Valuation and key investment themes
Why bulls like Zip in late 2025
Supportive arguments for Zip at today’s level typically include:
- Profitable growth at scale
- After years of losses, Zip is now generating meaningful positive cash EBTDA with margins that are still expanding.
- U.S. growth engine
- The U.S. is driving 50%+ revenue growth, with rising customer numbers and strong engagement, giving Zip a long runway in a large addressable market.
- Operating leverage and discipline
- The step‑up from a ~8% operating margin in FY24 to nearly 16% in FY25 and ~19.5% in 1Q26 shows that Zip’s cost base is scaling more slowly than revenue.
- Capital management and optionality
- The enlarged A$100m buyback, strong cash position (over A$450m total cash was cited around the Q1 update) and the Nasdaq dual‑listing option all feed into the narrative of a company on the front foot rather than in survival mode.
Risks that bears and cautious investors focus on
On the other side of the ledger, several risks remain front of mind:
- High valuation and volatility
- A high‑growth P/E and beta above 3 mean Zip’s share price is highly sensitive to any disappointment in growth, margins or credit metrics.
- Credit and macro risk
- BNPL performance is tightly linked to consumer health. AFR’s focus on “Americans living pay‑to‑pay” highlights exactly the type of customer that can power growth in good times but become a source of rising arrears if unemployment or rates move unfavourably.AfR+1
- Regulatory uncertainty
- Globally, regulators have become more interested in BNPL and consumer credit affordability. Any move to treat BNPL more like traditional credit – with stricter checks, fee caps or other constraints – could compress margins or slow growth.
- Competitive landscape
- Zip competes with major global players (such as Afterpay’s parent Block and Klarna in some markets) as well as banks and cards. Maintaining growth while protecting unit economics is an ongoing execution challenge.
- Execution on Nasdaq listing and partnerships
- A dual listing and deeper partnerships (like Stripe) can be powerful catalysts, but they also bring complexity and potential integration risks if not carefully managed.
Where Zip Co stands on 1 December 2025
Putting it all together, Zip Co on 1 December 2025 looks like:
- A profitable, high‑growth fintech that has executed a significant turnaround over the last 18–24 months
- A business with strong U.S. momentum, solid customer and merchant growth, and stable credit metrics
- A stock trading at elevated growth multiples, with a wide dispersion of potential outcomes depending on macro conditions, regulation, competition and execution on U.S. opportunities
For growth‑oriented investors, Zip is likely to remain a closely watched BNPL name into 2026, especially around:
- Further updates on U.S. holiday season trading and credit losses
- Any concrete decision and timetable for a Nasdaq dual listing
- Progress on the share buyback and capital management
- Signs that operating margins can be held or expanded from already elevated levels
For more conservative investors, the combination of high volatility, sector risk and rich valuation may warrant caution, even with attractive analyst price targets.
