Tulsa, August 10, 2026, 19:54 EDT
- AAON stock ended the session down 5.9% at $89.24, following a premarket gain of 7.6%.
- Sales for the quarter rose twofold to $627.0 million, surpassing the market forecast by 24.7%.
- Management raised its projected 2026 sales-growth range by 15 percentage points at the midpoint.
- The gross-margin projection declined by 200 basis points, highlighting the expense associated with swift capacity expansion.
Shares of AAON Inc. NASDAQ:AAON declined 5.9% on Monday, even as the company reported record sales for the quarter. The stock ended trading at $89.24, after reaching a high of $97.47 and a low of $85.72 during the session.
AAON initially jumped 7.6% in premarket trade, but the stock later surrendered those gains during standard trading hours. Trading volume hit 2.57 million shares, approximately 2.4 times its average level.
Investors were met with opposing indicators. Revenue growth surged well past forecasts, but the expense of expanding data-center cooling capacity led management to revise its margin guidance downward.
The trade-off stands out. AAON increased its full-year sales-growth midpoint by 15 percentage points, while it reduced the gross-margin midpoint by two points.
| Q2 measure | 2026 | 2025 | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | $627.0m | $311.6m | up 101.2% |
| Gross profit | $152.5m | $82.7m | increased 84.3% |
| Gross margin | 24.3% | 26.6% | down 230 bp |
| Operating income | $68.9m | $23.6m | up 192.1% |
| GAAP diluted EPS | $0.68 | $0.19 | increased 257.9% |
| Adjusted diluted EPS | $0.69 | $0.22 | up 213.6% |
The company posted the above results in its second-quarter statement. Adjusted EPS surpassed the market forecast of $0.49 by 39.7%. Revenue exceeded the consensus estimate of $503.0 million by 24.7%.
Gross profit increased at a pace 16.9 percentage points behind sales growth. This disparity accounts for the subdued reaction more than the headline earnings beat. Higher production costs resulted from new capacity, outsourced components and inflation.
Chief Executive Matt Tobolski stated, “We are also clear-eyed about the margin work ahead.” His remark addressed a key concern for the market. AAON results
BASX-branded sales climbed 216.2% to $345.0 million. AAON-branded sales advanced 39.3% to $282.2 million. The majority of additional revenue thus originated from the data-center cooling segment.
Backlog grew to $1.97 billion, representing a 98.0% increase compared with the previous year. This amount was equivalent to 3.1 quarters at the current rate of sales. Overall backlog declined by 7.4% from March amid faster production, while the AAON-branded backlog increased 6.0% from the prior quarter.
| 2026 outlook | Current | Prior | Midpoint change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales growth | 55%-60% | 40%-45% | up 15 percentage points |
| Gross margin | 25%-26% | 27%-28% | down 2 percentage points |
| SG&A as a share of sales | 13%-14% | 14%-15% | down 1 percentage point |
| Depreciation and amortization | $95m-$100m | $95m-$100m | No change |
The revised forecast increases the sales target but reduces profit estimates for the short term. Executives anticipate that improved utilization, pricing and sourcing actions will boost margins in the coming months. This comparison is sourced from AAON’s earnings presentation.
“The direction is clear. We expect sequential margin improvement in the second half of the year,” Tobolski said. Every quarter left now serves as a test of execution. AAON results
Additional operational metrics saw gains. SG&A dropped to 13.3% of sales, compared to 19.0% previously. Operating cash flow for the first half stood at $55.0 million, compared to a negative $31.0 million in the prior year period.
The stock remains highly valued, ending Monday at 62.8 times its trailing earnings. It also closed 40.6% under its 52-week peak of $150.18.
| Analyst | Firm | Recommendation | Price target | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Merkel | William Blair | Buy, rating kept | Not listed | Aug. 10, 2026 |
| David Tarantino | KeyBanc | Hold, start of coverage | Not listed | July 23, 2026 |
| Julio Romero | Sidoti | Buy, rating maintained | $154 | May 13, 2026 |
| Timothy Wojs | Robert W. Baird | Buy, maintained rating | $150 | May 8, 2026 |
| Noah Kaye | Oppenheimer | Buy, reaffirmed | $145 | May 8, 2026 |
| Brent Thielman | D.A. Davidson | Buy, reaffirmed | $120 | Feb. 5, 2026 |
Out of six listed recommendations, five are rated as buys while one is a hold. Of the four published price targets, the average is $142.25, representing an increase of 59.4% from Monday’s close. Most target prices were set before the updated margin range, allowing for possible adjustments.
Risks: The timing of data-center projects could shift backlog across quarters. Accelerated capacity growth may extend periods of low utilization. Inflation, timing differences between costs and prices, and reliance on outsourced components might also postpone anticipated margin improvements.
The next trigger is quantifiable. AAON needs to convert a 57.5% midpoint in sales growth into higher margins quarter-on-quarter, while maintaining its $1.97 billion backlog.
