Marcin Frąckiewicz

January 20, 2026, 2:44 PM EST. Cocoa prices plunged sharply with March ICE NY cocoa falling 9.44% and London cocoa down 9.21%, hitting multi-year nearest-futures lows. This drop follows weak global demand signals, notably Europe's Q4 cocoa grindings dropping 8.3% year-on-year, the lowest in 12 years. Asian grindings also declined by 4.8%. Favorable West African growing conditions, especially in Ivory Coast and Ghana, suggest a strong upcoming harvest, pressuring prices further. Ivory Coast shipments fell 3.3% year-on-year, but smaller supplies from Nigeria and declining U.S. port inventories add complexity. The International Cocoa Organization cut its 2024/25 global surplus forecast despite lowering production estimates. Market watchers face a mixed supply picture amid subdued demand, raising concerns over rising cocoa surpluses and downward price pressures.