Economia 16 Junho 2025

April 30, 2026, 1:15 PM EDT. Cocoa prices edged higher Wednesday, supported by StoneX's lowered forecast for global cocoa surpluses in 2025/26 and 2026/27. The analyst cut the surplus estimate to 149,000 tonnes for 2026/27, citing El Niño risks to West African crops. Supply chain disruptions, including the Strait of Hormuz closure affecting fertilizer shipments, also underpin prices by raising import costs. However, weak demand casts a shadow. North American chocolate sales fell 1.3% year-on-year, while European cocoa grindings dropped nearly 8%, marking a 17-year low for the quarter. Contrastingly, Asian grindings rose 5.2%. Inventory levels on ICE exchanges hit a 20-month high. Stable Ivory Coast shipments and falling Nigerian cocoa exports amid drought concerns round out a complex market picture with tight supplies offset by subdued demand.