SpaceX Wins $81.6 Million U.S. Space Force Deal to Launch WSF-M2 Weather Satellite in 2027

• The USSF-178 task order is an $81.6 million NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 award to SpaceX to launch WSF-M2 on a Falcon 9 from Vandenberg SFB in the first half of FY2027, including a BLAZE-2 rideshare.
• This award marks SpaceX’s third consecutive Lane 1 win under NSSL Phase 3, following two earlier Lane 1 awards totaling $733.5 million for SDA and NRO missions.
• WSF-M2 is the second Ball Aerospace–built microwave weather satellite, following WSF-M1 (USSF-62) which flew on a Falcon 9 on 11 April 2024, with Ball renamed to BAE Systems Space & Mission Systems after the 2024 acquisition.
• Each WSF-M2 satellite carries a multi-frequency passive microwave imager and an Energetic Charged-Particle sensor, enabling retrievals of ocean-surface vector winds, snow/soil moisture, and LEO particle flux.
• The WSF-M program aims to fill three critical environmental-monitoring gaps identified after the aging DMSP program began retiring, amid concerns DMSP could shut down as soon as 30 June 2025.
• DMSP last launched in 2014, only two satellites have fuel past 2026, and WSF-M is positioned as the near-term DoD weather asset.
• SpaceX’s USSF-178 price undercuts the Phase 2 average by about 25 percent, with Phase 2 launches typically $95-150 million versus $81.6 million for USSF-178.
• The launch window targets the first half of FY 2027, with as little as three months for late-manifested rideshare integration.
• The contract emphasizes strategic value in flexibly manifesting small satellites on launch vehicles with additional capacity for SSC.
• The broader market context notes potential gaps if ULA Vulcan and Blue Origin New Glenn are delayed, potentially leaving SpaceX as the sole certified heavy-lift provider for national-security launches by 2025, with a field possibly limited to SpaceX, Blue Origin, and ULA by 2027.

The U.S. Space Force has tapped SpaceX for a $81.6 million National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 1 task order to loft the Weather System Follow-on–Microwave 2 (WSF-M2) satellite and a rideshare stack of small DoD spacecraft (the BLAZE-2 mission) in the first half of fiscal 2027. The award—designated mission USSF-178—marks SpaceX’s third straight win under the new NSSL contracting framework and underscores the company’s tightening grip on U.S. national-security launches. Below is a deep-dive on what the contract covers, why the WSF-M satellites matter, and how the deal reshapes the military-launch market.

1. What the USSF-178 Contract Covers

• Award specifics. The $81.6 million task order was issued June 27 by Space Systems Command (SSC) and covers a single Falcon 9 launch from Vandenberg SFB with “multi-manifest” capacity for secondary payloads. 1
• Third consecutive Phase 3 win. SpaceX already secured two earlier Lane 1 awards—worth a combined $733.5 million—covering seven Space Development Agency and two National Reconnaissance Office missions; USSF-178 cements a clean three-for-three record. 2
• Tier-3 assurance. SSC classified USSF-178 as the first Lane 1 mission requiring Tier-3 mission assurance, reflecting the operational importance of WSF-M2. 2
• Launch window. SSC says liftoff is targeted for “the first half of FY 2027,” allowing as little as three months for late-manifested rideshare integration. 1
• Official rationale. “It is a strategic advantage when we can flexibly manifest small satellites on our launch vehicles with additional capacity,” noted Col. Matthew Flahive, chief of Launch Mission Solutions Delta at SSC. 2

2. Inside the WSF-M Program

2.1 Spacecraft Heritage

• WSF-M2 is the second of two Ball-built microwave weather satellites; the first, WSF-M1 (mission USSF-62), flew aboard a Falcon 9 on 11 April 2024. americaspace.com
• Ball Aerospace (now BAE Systems Space & Mission Systems after the 2024 acquisition) received a $78 million modification in 2022 to build the second vehicle. 3

David Betz, SSC WSF-M program manager, said at the 2023 contract option exercise: “The second WSF-M space vehicle extends our ability to measure wind speed and direction over the Earth’s oceans and provide timely tropical-cyclone intensity data beyond the first vehicle’s end-of-life.” 4

Note: SSC press material credits BAE Systems following its 2024 purchase of Ball Aerospace.

2.2 Sensors and Data Products

• Each satellite carries a multi-frequency passive microwave imager and an Energetic Charged-Particle (ECP) sensor, enabling retrievals of ocean-surface vector winds, snow/soil moisture and LEO particle flux. 2
• Collected data backfill three critical “space-based environmental-monitoring gaps” identified when the aging Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) began retiring. 4

3. Why Military Weather Data Are Urgent

• Legacy at risk. The Guardian reports DMSP spacecraft could be shut down as soon as 30 June 2025, a move that scientists say would “send hurricane forecasting back decades.” 5
• Operational impacts. C4ISRNET notes the last DMSP launch occurred in 2014 and only two satellites have fuel past 2026, leaving WSF-M the sole DoD-owned replacement in the near term. 6

4. SpaceX’s Rising Launch Monopoly Concerns

• Breaking Defense warns that delays to ULA Vulcan and Blue Origin New Glenn could leave SpaceX the only certified heavy-lift provider for a span of national-security launches starting in 2025. 7
• Space-policy analyst Todd Harrison observes: “Allowing more than two competitors sends a strong signal … but by 2027 the field may still be just SpaceX, Blue Origin and ULA, with real uncertainty about the latter two.” 7
• Former NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine adds: “The only thing worse than a government monopoly is a private monopoly that government is dependent on.” 7

5. Financial & Programmatic Context

SpaceX’s USSF-178 price undercuts the Phase 2 average by roughly 25 percent, highlighting how Lane 1’s lighter assurance and reuse-driven economics translate into cost savings for lower-risk payloads.

6. Broader Weather-Sensing Roadmap

7. Launch and Integration Timeline

1. 2025–2026: SpaceX conducts mission design reviews; Ball/BAE finishes spacecraft environmental tests.
2. Early FY 2027: Falcon 9 static-fire on SLC-4E; rideshare payloads (BLAZE-2) integrated within 90 days of launch per Lane 1 rapid-call-up requirement. 1
3. Post-launch: Initial Operational Capability targeted ≈ 9 months after on-orbit checkout, tying into NOAA and Joint Typhoon Warning Center modeling pipelines.

8. Expert Takeaways

• Col. Matthew Flahive (SSC): “We deliver assured access to space and maximize value for the American taxpayer.” 1
• Todd Harrison (Metrea Strategic Insights): “Starship will fundamentally change everything … we could see SpaceX’s effective launch capacity triple within five years.” 7
• Courtney Albon (C4ISRNET): The DMSP backlog shows “back-to-back failed modernization efforts have weakened an already obsolescing national-security weather enterprise.” 6

Conclusion

The USSF-178 award signals both progress and pressure points for U.S. military space operations: it accelerates the transition from Cold-War-era weather assets to modern sensors, yet it further concentrates critical launch capability in SpaceX’s hands. Whether forthcoming Lane 1 on-ramps and Lane 2 competitions restore balance—or whether SpaceX’s cost and cadence keep it dominant—will shape the strategic landscape well beyond this $81.6 million mission.