Quantum Gold Rush: QUBT vs. D-Wave – Inside the High-Stakes 2025 Quantum Computing Showdown

• Quantum Tech Approaches:Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) is betting on photonic quantum computing, using light-based qubits on Thin-Film Lithium Niobate (TFLN) chips that operate at room temperature nasdaq.com. D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) pioneered quantum annealing, a supercooled approach focused on optimization problems, delivered via cloud services (Quantum Computing-as-a-Service) and on-premise systems nasdaq.com.
• Business Models: QUBT (also known as Quantum Computing Inc. or QCi) offers a spectrum of products from quantum software (like its Qatalyst platform) to photonic hardware. It has debuted its Dirac-3 photonic quantum computer and even sells related devices (quantum sensors, entangled photon sources, etc.) for niche use-cases quantumcomputinginc.com quantumcomputinginc.com. D-Wave generates revenue by providing cloud access to its Advantage annealing processors and by direct system sales; it emphasizes “quantum practical” applications (e.g. optimization in logistics, finance, and materials science) and hybrid quantum-classical solutions on its Leap cloud platform.
• Financial Health: Both companies remain deep in the red, reflecting the early stage of quantum computing. D-Wave reported $8.8 million in 2024 revenue nasdaq.com and saw a one-time jump in early 2025 (selling a new system to a German supercomputing center) tickeron.com. QUBT’s revenues are under $0.5 million annually nasdaq.com – essentially R&D contracts and pilot sales – yet both command multi-billion-dollar market caps (D-Wave ~$6.3B; QUBT ~$2.6–3.7B as of Q3 2025) nasdaq.com 247wallst.com. Each has aggressively raised cash via stock offerings: D-Wave added $400M in mid-2025 (building an ~$800M cash war chest) carboncredits.com, while QUBT raised over $270M in late 2024 and Q1–Q2 2025, bolstering its cash above $300M quantumcomputinginc.com.
• Stock Surge & Hype: Quantum stocks have skyrocketed in 2023–2025 amid investor enthusiasm. QUBT’s share price is up over 3,000% in the past year 247wallst.com, and D-Wave’s is up ~1,800% year-to-date in 2025 tickeron.com. These rallies – spurred by quantum tech breakthroughs, big funding news, and even a bit of “fear of missing out” – put both stocks in speculative territory. Analysts caution that current valuations factor in substantial future success that may be years away nasdaq.com 247wallst.com.
• Recent Milestones: In 2024–2025, QUBT opened a Quantum Photonic Chip Foundry in Arizona (commissioned Q1 2025) to produce its room-temperature quantum chips quantumcomputinginc.com, and it secured multiple NASA contracts to apply its photonic Dirac-3 machine to space imaging and sensing challenges quantumcomputinginc.com. D-Wave, meanwhile, launched its next-gen Advantage2 annealer with 4,400+ qubits in 2025 siliconangle.com, signed an MOU to install an Advantage2 in South Korea carboncredits.com, and reported 42% YoY revenue growth in Q2 2025 datacenterdynamics.com alongside expanding bookings and enterprise client wins.
• Leadership & Partnerships: QUBT’s team is led (as of mid-2025) by interim CEO Dr. Yuping Huang, a photonics expert, with new CFO Chris Roberts and others focused on commercializing its tech quantumcomputinginc.com. D-Wave’s CEO Dr. Alan Baratz (former IBM and Silicon Valley veteran) oversees a company with 20+ years in quantum R&D. QUBT has R&D alliances with NASA, Los Alamos National Lab, and a biomed institute, and recently inked MOUs with photonics firms (Spark Photonics, Alcyon) to advance its chip tech iceberg-research.com. D-Wave boasts 100+ customers including corporate giants like Mastercard, Deloitte, Siemens, Ford, and Lockheed Martin, and partners such as Carahsoft (to distribute D-Wave tech to U.S. government agencies) carboncredits.com carboncredits.com. Both companies are also collaborating with universities worldwide on research and talent development.
• Industry Context: QUBT and D-Wave are upstarts in a broader quantum computing race that includes peers IonQ and Rigetti (other public quantum firms) and tech titans IBM, Google (Alphabet), Microsoft, and Amazon. IonQ (trapped-ion quantum computers) leads the SPAC-born startups in revenue and has made high-profile acquisitions (e.g. Oxford Ionics) datacenterdynamics.com, while IBM and Google have demonstrated devices with 100+ superconducting qubits and are pouring billions into quantum R&D. This competitive landscape means QUBT and D-Wave face both the agility of fellow startups and the deep pockets of Big Tech.
• Market Outlook: Experts project a long runway before quantum computing achieves widespread commercial use. Venture capital investment hit $1.6B in 2024 nasdaq.com and quantum hardware orders grew 70% that year (to ~$854M) thequantuminsider.com thequantuminsider.com, signaling momentum. By 2035, the quantum computing sector could be worth tens of billions (estimates range from ~$28B to $70B+) mckinsey.com. But today’s reality is that quantum machines are mostly in a proof-of-concept phase, tackling specialized problems. A 2024 MIT report concluded the technology “remains far from” meeting the needs of large-scale commercial applications nasdaq.com – a sober reminder that the quantum revolution is still emergent, not yet fully realized.
• Risks for Investors: Both QUBT and D-Wave carry high risk. Neither is profitable (or anywhere close), and both will likely burn cash for years as they refine their tech. Frequent stock dilutions to raise capital are a concern (e.g. D-Wave’s $400M at-the-market offering betakit.com and QUBT’s dilutive placements prnewswire.com), as are regulatory/legal pitfalls – QUBT faces shareholder lawsuits claiming inadequate disclosures amid its stock volatility 247wallst.com. Technologically, there’s no guarantee either company’s approach will outperform competitors; D-Wave’s annealing is effective for certain optimization tasks but cannot run general algorithms (and might be overtaken if universal quantum computers mature), while QUBT’s photonic approach, though promising in theory, is unproven at scale and was harshly criticized by short-sellers in 2024 as potentially overhyped iceberg-research.com iceberg-research.com. In short, investing in these quantum players is a speculative bet that their futuristic visions can eventually turn into commercial reality – a payoff that could be many years down the road nasdaq.com nasdaq.com.

In-Depth Report

Company Overviews & Quantum Approaches

Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) – Photonic Quantum Tech at Room Temperature: Quantum Computing Inc., branded as QCi, is a small-cap quantum technology company that has captured outsized attention due to its unconventional approach. Rather than using superconducting circuits or ion traps like many competitors, QCi focuses on photonic quantum computing – using particles of light (photons) passing through specialized optical chips to perform computations. The company’s core technology revolves around thin-film lithium niobate (TFLN) photonic integrated circuits nasdaq.com. This approach potentially offers a big advantage: QCi’s photonic qubits can operate at ambient room temperature, avoiding the need for the ultra-cold dilution refrigerators that systems from IBM, Google, D-Wave and others typically require nasdaq.com. By eliminating cryogenics, QCi aims to slash the cost and complexity of quantum hardware and allow easier scaling of quantum processors.

QCi’s flagship prototype is the Dirac-3 quantum computer – a rack-mounted photonic processing unit that the company calls its highest-performance machine for optimization problems. It leverages what QCi terms “Entropy Quantum Computing (EQC),” an approach that intentionally harnesses and manages quantum noise and loss (rather than strictly suppressing them) to help explore solution spaces quantumcomputinginc.com quantumcomputinginc.com. While such claims are hard for laypeople to verify, QCi has showcased the Dirac-3’s capabilities through demos and early projects. Notably, Dirac-3 is a relatively compact system (5U size, <30kg) with low power draw (~100 W), and QCi even lists an on-premises price of ~$300,000 – signaling a goal to commercialize “turnkey” photonic quantum machines that could sit in ordinary server rooms quantumcomputinginc.com quantumcomputinginc.com. For now, QCi also offers cloud-based access to its Dirac machines and even “quantum consulting” services for clients to formulate problems suited to its hardware quantumcomputinginc.com quantumcomputinginc.com. The company’s broader product lineup includes quantum-inspired devices like the QPV quantum vibrometer (for sensing vibrations in materials) and an entangled photon generator for quantum communications research quantumcomputinginc.com. These are niche, high-tech instruments, but QCi hopes they provide stepping stones to real revenue while its core photonic processor matures.

Despite its “Quantum Computing Inc.” name, QUBT is very much a multi-faceted R&D venture at this stage – part photonic chip foundry, part quantum software provider, part hardware integrator. It even acquired a photonics startup (QPhoton) in 2022 to jump-start its hardware development. The big question is whether QCi’s light-based approach can yield quantum computers that are not only functional but useful at scale, delivering an advantage on practical problems. Many scientists are intrigued by photonic qubits (for their potential stability and room-temp operation), yet significant challenges remain in scaling up the number of qubits and achieving error correction with light. QCi’s current machines (e.g. Dirac-3) are described as “quantum optimization” solvers with hundreds of variables (qubits or “qudits”) quantumcomputinginc.com – useful for certain optimization tasks, but far from the thousands or millions of error-corrected qubits experts say might be needed for general-purpose quantum computing. In essence, QCi is casting a wide net: developing unique photonic hardware, offering related quantum-derived products (sensing, security devices), and providing software tools (Qatalyst) that let users run hybrid quantum/classical algorithms on its system as well as on other companies’ quantum backends. This diversified approach could give it more shots on goal, but also means high complexity for a small company. It remains to be seen if QCi’s photonic dream can convert into a robust, competitive quantum platform; for now, it’s an audacious moonshot backed by intriguing demos but minimal revenue.

Image: QCi’s Dirac-3 photonic quantum computer. The rack-mounted system uses laser light and optical chips instead of superconducting circuits, enabling quantum operations at room temperature. QCi markets Dirac-3 for solving optimization problems in areas like logistics and data analysis. nasdaq.com 247wallst.com

D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) – Quantum Annealing Pioneer: D-Wave, by contrast, is one of the oldest players in quantum computing, founded in 1999 in British Columbia. It made headlines in the early 2010s by launching the world’s first commercial quantum computers – albeit using a very different paradigm known as quantum annealing. D-Wave’s machines employ superconducting flux qubits that reside in a cryogenic refrigerator chilled to near 10 millikelvin (that’s colder than interstellar space), where they exploit quantum mechanics to solve optimization problems nasdaq.com. An annealing quantum computer is somewhat analogous to a specialized problem-solving machine: users frame their task (e.g. an optimization or scheduling puzzle) as an “energy minimization” problem, and the quantum hardware finds a low-energy state that represents a good solution. This approach is not universal (unlike, say, gate-model quantum computers from IBM or IonQ, which in theory can run any algorithm), but for certain classes of problems it can be extremely fast. D-Wave has leaned into this niche: it markets its quantum systems for things like route optimization, scheduling, network design, machine learning, and even quantum simulation of materials siliconangle.com siliconangle.com – scenarios where finding an optimal (or at least very good) combination out of many possibilities is the goal.

Over the years, D-Wave progressed through several generations: from the early 128-qubit and 512-qubit models a decade ago to the D-Wave 2X and 2000Q (2,048 qubits), and in 2020, the Advantage system with 5,000+ qubits. As of 2025, D-Wave has rolled out Advantage2, its sixth-generation annealer boasting over 4,400 qubits with a new 20-way qubit connectivity design (dubbed the Zephyr topology) siliconangle.com carboncredits.com. The qubit count can be misleading – D-Wave’s qubits are different from, say, IonQ’s 35 trapped-ion qubits or IBM’s 127 superconducting qubits, because annealing qubits are used in a very specific manner (and thousands might be required to represent a problem of even modest size). However, the Advantage2’s improvements (higher connectivity, reduced noise, longer coherence times) aim to let users embed larger and more complex problems than before siliconangle.com siliconangle.com. In tests, D-Wave’s team reported Advantage2 is up to 10,000x faster on certain benchmarks relative to its previous model carboncredits.com – a dramatic boost, if validated, that could widen the types of problems where quantum annealing shows an advantage.

Crucially, D-Wave has transitioned to a “quantum-as-a-service” business model. Instead of expecting organizations to buy multimillion-dollar fridges and machines outright (though a few have, historically), D-Wave offers cloud access to its quantum processors via its Leap cloud service. This lets any researcher or company with a credit card (or an Amazon Braket account, as D-Wave is integrated into AWS’s quantum cloud) submit problems to D-Wave’s machines over the internet. The company charges usage fees, and also engages clients through a Quantum Launchpad program (offering free trials) and application consulting. D-Wave still does on-premise system sales selectively – for instance, in 2023 it began installing an Advantage2 system at Davidson Technologies in Alabama under a U.S. defense contract dwavequantum.com hpcwire.com, and it signed an MOU in 2025 with Yonsei University and the city of Incheon to develop an Advantage2 system in South Korea carboncredits.com. These deals show that beyond cloud access, there is demand from governments and large institutions to physically host quantum annealers, especially for sensitive or continuous-use applications.

D-Wave’s approach has some clear strengths and limitations. On the plus side, annealing is less error-prone for optimization tasks – the analog nature of the process inherently “finds the ground state” without needing millions of logic gates, so issues like gate errors or extensive error correction aren’t in play (though noise still affects solution quality). D-Wave’s machines have already been used to solve real-world problems: examples include optimizing traffic flow in cities (a project with Volkswagen showed ~17% reduction in congestion using a quantum approach) carboncredits.com carboncredits.com, optimizing logistics routes for waste collection in Tokyo (cutting route distances by over 50%) carboncredits.com, and various projects in energy grid management with European utility E.ON carboncredits.com. These case studies, often done in partnership with customers and local governments, illustrate that quantum annealing can deliver value today in niche scenarios by finding more efficient solutions than conventional methods. However, annealers cannot run algorithms like Shor’s (for cryptography) or others that require general quantum logic operations – they are not the machines that will one day crack all encryption or simulate arbitrary quantum systems with ease. Competing technologies (superconducting gate-model qubits, trapped ions, photonics, etc.) might eventually surpass annealing in broad capability. D-Wave is aware of this; interestingly, the company has a parallel research track on gate-model quantum computing and has indicated plans to develop a gate-based prototype by 2025–2026 reddit.com reddit.com. In other words, even as it champions annealing, D-Wave doesn’t want to be left behind if the future turns out to favor universal quantum computers. For now, though, D-Wave’s uniqueness is that it offers a commercially usable quantum computer today – something it has been doing longer than anyone else – and it has focused on making that offering as accessible as possible via cloud and software tools.

Business Models & Differentiators

When comparing QUBT and QBTS, we see two very different philosophies of how to build a quantum business:

• Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT): QCi is essentially a research-stage startup trying to monetize along the way. Its business model involves developing proprietary hardware and selling access to it, but also selling auxiliary products (like its photonic-based random number generators, sensing devices, etc.) and software solutions. QCi’s Qatalyst software, for example, is a platform that allows users (even without quantum expertise) to formulate optimization problems in a user-friendly way and solve them either on classical computers or quantum machines. In practice, given the infancy of its hardware, much of QCi’s early “revenue” likely comes from professional services or small government R&D contracts rather than product sales – as evidenced by quarterly revenues in the mere tens of thousands. The company has highlighted contracts such as NASA sub-awards (e.g. ~$400K to use Dirac-3 for satellite LiDAR data processing) quantumcomputinginc.com and collaborations with agencies like Los Alamos National Lab. QCi’s newly operational photonic chip foundry in Arizona is another piece of the model: it aims to fabricate its own TFLN photonic chips and possibly sell photonic components to other tech firms. In late 2024, QCi announced it had secured its first purchase orders for these chips (from a research institute in Asia and a U.S. university) iceberg-research.com, portraying that as evidence of demand – though a short-seller later alleged these orders were very small and that the foundry’s existence was overhyped iceberg-research.com iceberg-research.com. If the foundry does ramp up, QCi could have a supply of cutting-edge photonic devices to fuel its own products and to offer externally (for instance, to telecom or datacom companies interested in advanced optical interconnects quantumcomputinginc.com). In essence, QCi’s business plan is about creating an ecosystem around its photonic quantum tech: hardware, tooling, and specialized applications (quantum sensing, secure communications) that can generate initial revenue, while the grand prize is building a full-stack quantum computer that performs useful work for enterprise customers.
• D-Wave (QBTS): D-Wave’s model has evolved into something closer to a SaaS (software-as-a-service) or cloud subscription model, with a dash of big-iron sales for those who want the whole machine. The bulk of D-Wave’s customers access its quantum solvers through cloud subscriptions or pay-per-use. For example, D-Wave sells time on its systems in seconds or minutes; enterprise clients might sign up for dedicated volumes of quantum processing time. The company also offers a suite of hybrid solvers – basically software that lets users solve problems by smartly mixing quantum and classical computing, which is important because current quantum hardware alone might not handle large-scale problems end-to-end. These hybrid tools (available through Leap) expand D-Wave’s appeal beyond what its raw qubit count could do. D-Wave reported having over 100 commercial and research customers as of 2025 carboncredits.com, including corporate names (automakers, banks, manufacturers) and governmental bodies. Many of these started as exploratory collaborations or proof-of-concept projects (e.g. optimizing a factory schedule, or doing a pilot study in portfolio optimization for a bank). D-Wave’s challenge is to convert more of these into repeatable, scaling revenue streams – essentially, quantum computing going from an experiment to a must-have tool. To that end, D-Wave has been emphasizing “application development” in areas like machine learning (it partnered with startup Zapata Computing to blend quantum with generative AI) carboncredits.com and marketing optimization (with Interpublic Group in advertising) carboncredits.com. It’s also pursuing strategic channel partnerships: notably a deal with Carahsoft (a big government IT contractor) to resell D-Wave’s tech to U.S. agencies carboncredits.com, which could open doors in defense, intelligence, and aerospace (an important market, as governments are interested in quantum for optimization, encryption, and research). Additionally, D-Wave isn’t shy about selling entire systems where appropriate: in 2023 it agreed to a multi-year reseller partnership with Davidson Technologies, where Davidson hosts a D-Wave system to support U.S. missile defense research davidson-tech.com. Each such sale can bring in a multi-million dollar upfront boost (the list price of an Advantage system has been estimated in the tens of millions historically), but more importantly, they validate that some customers want dedicated quantum infrastructure.

In summary, QUBT is trying to invent new quantum tech and find early niches for it, essentially building a future business that doesn’t exist yet. D-Wave is commercializing a technology it has spent two decades refining, focusing on near-term practical uses of quantum. QUBT’s diversification into photonic chips, sensors, and government projects provides more shots at modest revenue, whereas D-Wave’s singular focus on optimization-as-a-service is starting to show tangible, if small, returns (D-Wave’s 2024 revenue of $8.8M far eclipsed QUBT’s ~$0.37M nasdaq.com). Both companies, however, are still funded by investors’ hopes more than by their customers’ dollars, and both will likely need to keep evolving their business models. QUBT might discover that its true value is in a particular application (say, quantum LiDAR for NASA or photonic secure communication for finance) and lean into that. D-Wave, in turn, might find ways to monetize its expertise beyond annealing – for example, offering consulting on quantum-ready problem formulation or eventually licensing whatever gate-model IP it develops.

Recent News and Developments (2024–2025)

The last two years (2024 and 2025) have been eventful for both QUBT and QBTS, as each tried to execute on ambitious roadmaps. Below we highlight some key developments and news:

Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) – Recent Highlights:

• Quantum Photonic Chip Foundry Launch: Perhaps QCI’s biggest 2024 milestone was the build-out of its quantum photonic chip fabrication facility in Tempe, Arizona. Initially announced in late 2023, the foundry reached final commissioning by Q1 2025 quantumcomputinginc.com. In March 2025, QCI held a ribbon-cutting ceremony with local officials, and the facility is now said to be operational, producing TFLN photonic chips for internal use and external orders quantumcomputinginc.com. This foundry is touted as one of the first of its kind dedicated to quantum photonic integrated circuits. QCI claimed to have multiple pre-orders and by late 2024 had announced two MOUs with a U.S. university (later revealed as University of Texas at Austin) and an Asian research institute to supply them with sample chips iceberg-research.com. (Notably, an activist short report from Iceberg Research in Nov 2024 questioned the scale and legitimacy of these orders and whether QCI’s facility is truly capable of “mass production” yet iceberg-research.com iceberg-research.com. QCI responded indirectly by scrubbing UT Austin’s name from a press release – reportedly at the university’s request – but proceeded to complete the foundry and start deliveries in 2025.) If QCI’s foundry ramps up, it could not only feed QCI’s own hardware development but also position the company in the supply chain for photonic chips, which have broad demand in telecom and computing. This is definitely a space to watch, with QCI claiming a first-mover advantage in TFLN photonic manufacturing.
• NASA and Government Contracts: QCI has leveraged U.S. government interest in quantum tech to grab several contracts. In late 2024, it secured a prime contract with NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center to use its Dirac-3 photonic solver for imaging and data processing tasks quantumcomputinginc.com. In October 2024, QCI announced its fifth task order under a NASA QRS (Quantum Research Services) program, involving quantum remote sensing for climate-monitoring satellites prnewswire.com prnewswire.com. And in Q2 2025, QCI won a new NASA-related subcontract (~$406k value) to apply its quantum methods to remove solar noise from atmospheric LiDAR data (improving daytime Earth observations) quantumcomputinginc.com. These contracts are relatively small in dollar terms but significant in credibility – they indicate NASA recognizes QCI’s expertise in photonic quantum tech. QCI has also engaged with the DOE and defense; for example, it extended a Cooperative R&D Agreement with Los Alamos National Lab in late 2024 quantumcomputinginc.com, and it’s been involved in a project with the Air Force Research Lab on quantum sensing. All these collaborations not only provide a trickle of revenue but also drive QCI to refine its hardware for specific tasks (like LiDAR signal processing or optimization problems defined by NASA).
• Commercial Pilot Sales: Though QCI’s revenue is very small, 2025 brought the company’s first-ever commercial sales. In Q2 2025, QCI delivered a Quantum Photonic Vibrometer (QPV) to the Aerospace Structures Department at TU Delft in the Netherlands – a tool to assist in non-destructive testing of materials using quantum-level sensitivity quantumcomputinginc.com. Around the same time, it shipped an entangled photon source to a leading South Korean research institute for quantum communications experiments quantumcomputinginc.com. These sales validate that QCI has productized some of its photonics research into devices that advanced labs want to buy. Another notable sale: QCI sold its “Emu” quantum reservoir computing hardware (branded EmuCore) to a major global automotive manufacturer for AI research on edge computing quantumcomputinginc.com. Reservoir computing is an AI technique, and QCI’s device (based on photonics) can assist in temporal pattern recognition and machine learning; a big automaker testing it hints at interest in new AI acceleration methods. Finally, in mid-2025 QCI announced a purchase order from a “top 5 U.S. bank” for its quantum-safe cybersecurity solutions (likely a quantum random number generator or encryption tool) quantumcomputinginc.com. That marks QCI’s first sale into the banking sector and shows how it’s pitching quantum tech as part of a cybersecurity toolkit (quantum random number generators can strengthen encryption by providing truly unpredictable keys). While each of these deals is small, collectively they demonstrate early commercial traction across multiple verticals – finance, automotive, aerospace, telecom – which QCI can now reference as it markets itself.
• Leadership Changes: With growth comes reorganization. In June 2023, QCI had brought on Dr. William McGann (a seasoned tech executive) as COO and eventually CEO. However, by mid-2025 the company appointed Dr. Yuping Huang as Interim CEO quantumcomputinginc.com. Dr. Huang is the scientist who founded QPhoton (acquired by QCI) and is the chief architect of QCI’s photonic technology. His elevation to CEO (taking over from McGann) suggests the company is doubling down on technology development in this critical phase. QCI also hired a new CFO, Chris Roberts, and promoted others to COO and Chief Revenue Officer roles quantumcomputinginc.com. Strengthening the C-suite was likely in preparation for scaling operations, and perhaps in response to shareholder pressure to execute on lofty promises. Additionally, QCI’s co-founder and former CEO, Robert Liscouski, appears to remain involved (possibly as Executive Chairman), lending government industry expertise given his Homeland Security background. On the governance side, QCI added respected academics to its board, like Dr. Javad Shabani (NYU quantum physics professor) in May 2024 quantumcomputinginc.com, to bolster its scientific credibility.
• Capital Raises: QCI’s developments were bankrolled by major capital infusions. In late 2024, as its stock price surged on quantum hype, QCI sold shares through offerings – raising $92.1M in Q4 2024 and a further $100M in Q1 2025 prnewswire.com. In Q2 2025, it secured another ~$188M via a private placement led by Titan Partners quantumcomputinginc.com quantumcomputinginc.com. These are huge sums for a company whose annual revenue is less than $1M. The result: as of June 2025, QCI had a cash stockpile of $349M on its balance sheet quantumcomputinginc.com – ample funding to pursue its R&D roadmap for a few years. The raises did dilute existing shareholders (the share count ballooned, which partly explains why net losses per share jumped due to derivative warrant liabilities quantumcomputinginc.com). But the management argued a “significantly bolstered balance sheet” was necessary to “accelerate commercialization” of its quantum solutions prnewswire.com. Investors evidently were willing to pour money in, likely betting on the long-term potential of QCi’s photonic approach (and riding the wave of enthusiasm that also lifted IonQ and others). The flipside is QCI now must deliver results to justify these funds – something short-sellers have skeptically noted, dubbing QCI a “perma-scam” if it fails to produce commensurate progress iceberg-research.com. So far, QCI has at least delivered the tangible milestones (a working foundry, a handful of product sales, ongoing NASA work).
• Notable Collaborations: Beyond those already mentioned, QCI struck a collaboration in early 2025 with the Sanders Tri-Institutional Therapeutics Discovery Institute (TDI) – a biomedical research consortium quantumcomputinginc.com. The goal is to use QCI’s Dirac-3 system to advance drug discovery and biotech computational problems. This aligns with an industry trend to explore quantum for designing new molecules or optimizing biochemical processes. If QCI can show that its photonic solver helps in biomedicine (even marginally), it could open doors to pharma partnerships. QCI also touts partnerships with photonics companies like Spark Photonics and Alcyon (via MOUs to allow their clients to test QCI’s chips) iceberg-research.com, and it’s working with academic institutions (it sponsored an annual Quantum Computing Hackathon at Stevens Institute of Technology, where Dr. Huang is a professor, to foster a talent pipeline). In short, QCI is busy networking within the quantum and photonics ecosystem to gain legitimacy and find early adopters for its technology.

D-Wave (QBTS) – Recent Highlights:

• Advantage2 System Launch: The headline event for D-Wave was the general availability of the Advantage2 quantum computer in 2025. On May 20, 2025, D-Wave officially launched Advantage2 for cloud customers, its first major hardware upgrade since 2020 siliconangle.com. The Advantage2 boasts 4,400+ qubits with 20-way connectivity (vs. 5,000 qubits with 15-way in the original Advantage). While the qubit count is slightly lower, the richer connectivity and reduced noise make it a more powerful machine in practice. D-Wave’s CTO pointed out improvements like 2x coherence time, 40% higher energy scale, and 75% less noise than before carboncredits.com – all contributing to better solution quality. This launch was a big deal for D-Wave’s customers: it means bigger problem instances can be run, and early tests indicated dramatic speed-ups on certain problems siliconangle.com siliconangle.com. D-Wave made Advantage2 available via its Leap cloud immediately and announced that an on-premise version could be installed for those who need a dedicated system carboncredits.com. The news gave D-Wave’s stock a jolt (shares jumped ~20% in the days around the launch) carboncredits.com and helped affirm that D-Wave can continue to execute on its hardware roadmap. It also noted it’s aiming for 100,000-qubit annealers in the future by multi-chip scaling siliconangle.com – a forward-looking statement to keep investors intrigued.
• Record Growth in Bookings & Cash Infusion: D-Wave’s strategic focus in 2024–2025 was on growing commercial bookings (contracted business) and shoring up its finances. In a January 2025 update, D-Wave announced its FY 2024 bookings exceeded $23 million – a 120% increase from 2023 ir.dwavesys.com. This figure, far higher than recognized revenue, includes multi-year and pilot deals that will convert to revenue over time. It suggested more customers are committing to try out D-Wave’s tech in a serious way. To support operations, D-Wave tapped the capital markets repeatedly. It used at-the-market (ATM) stock programs throughout 2023 and 2024, then in June 2025 completed a $400 million ATM equity raise betakit.com. This was an eye-popping move – essentially selling a huge amount of new stock into the open market as its share price skyrocketed. The result: by mid-2025 D-Wave had roughly $800 million in cash on hand carboncredits.com, giving it one of the strongest balance sheets in the quantum startup sector. D-Wave’s CFO noted this was a 19x increase in cash year-over-year hpcwire.com. The downside is massive dilution: early shareholders saw their ownership percentage drop significantly (D-Wave’s share count increased by hundreds of millions). But the upside is D-Wave now has the capital to fund R&D and operations for years to come, reducing the risk of near-term insolvency which often haunts pre-profit companies. With this war chest, D-Wave has indicated it might also pursue strategic acquisitions or initiatives to complement its technology (though none announced yet). The raise occurred as D-Wave’s stock soared in a speculative frenzy (the stock ran from under $1 to nearly $20 in a few months tickeron.com), so management took advantage of that window to fortify the company’s finances.
• Customer Wins and Use Cases: D-Wave’s marketing in 2024–2025 has been filled with real-world case studies, as it tries to shift the narrative from “interesting science project” to “business value add.” We touched on some climate and efficiency-related examples earlier (Tokyo waste management, traffic flow optimization, energy grid balancing) carboncredits.com carboncredits.com. In 2024, D-Wave also announced work with Mastercard on quantum applications in areas like loyalty programs and fraud detection (expanding on a partnership started in 2021). In late 2023, it launched a project with Unisys to develop quantum-hybrid applications for government (such as optimizing complex scheduling). The company’s Q2 2025 report highlighted that by that time over 63 early quantum applications had been built on D-Wave’s systems across various domains datacenterdynamics.com. One particularly interesting note: in Dec 2023, researchers using D-Wave’s annealer (in part of a collaboration with USC and Los Alamos) claimed to have achieved a practical quantum advantage in a material science simulation problem, outperforming a classical supercomputer on a specific task ir.dwavesys.com. This was touted as the first-ever demonstration of quantum annealing outpacing classical computing in a “useful” problem (simulating the behavior of a magnetic material) ir.dwavesys.com. While narrow in scope, it was a milestone validating D-Wave’s core approach. D-Wave’s roster of clients also grew geographically – by 2025 it had clients or partnerships in Japan (e.g. with Toyota Tsusho and NEC), in India (through a partnership with Saintela), and in the Middle East (e.g. a project in Dubai on scheduling). The Yonsei University MOU in South Korea, mentioned above, is notable as it involves both academic research and municipal use (Incheon smart city initiatives) – indicating governments are interested enough to invest in local quantum infrastructure carboncredits.com. All these activities underscore that D-Wave is no longer just a North American curiosity; it’s trying to establish a global presence in the quantum computing arena, focusing on what it can do now.
• Hybrid and Gate-Model Initiatives: Even as D-Wave’s main products are annealers, the company is aware of the broader quantum landscape. In 2024, D-Wave started talking up its R&D on gate-model quantum computing – essentially developing a different type of quantum processor that could run general algorithms. D-Wave’s CEO Alan Baratz suggested the company is leveraging its superconducting know-how to design a gate-model qubit and that early prototypes could emerge mid-decade reddit.com reddit.com. If successful, that would put D-Wave in direct competition with IBM, Google, Rigetti, and others in the race for universal quantum computing. It’s unclear how far along D-Wave is (no public demo yet), but just signaling this intent is important for investor perception, showing D-Wave isn’t a one-trick pony. Additionally, D-Wave integrated more with the ecosystem: its Ocean software development kit now supports not just annealing but also workflow integration with other quantum platforms. And in 2025, D-Wave partnered with Zapata AI to create hybrid solvers combining annealing with generative AI algorithms carboncredits.com. This kind of cross-disciplinary effort (quantum + AI) is trendy and helps D-Wave catch some AI hype as well.
• Corporate Developments: D-Wave’s management has remained stable (Alan Baratz as CEO, with key figures like Mark Johnson as VP Quantum Technologies, and new CFO John Markovich since 2022). The company did uplist from the NYSE to the NYSE main board after its 2022 SPAC, and as of 2025 is fully a NYSE-traded company under ticker QBTS. One small drama: in mid-2025, D-Wave was temporarily removed from the Russell 2000 index due to a technicality (share count changes) finance.yahoo.com, but with its soaring market cap, it’s expected to be included in major indices in future rebalances. D-Wave’s employee count grew to around 220 in 2024 en.wikipedia.org, reflecting hiring in engineering and customer-facing roles to support its growing engagements. With ~$800M in cash post-raise, we might anticipate D-Wave making strategic hires or even acquiring complementary tech (for instance, could it buy a small quantum software firm or a component supplier? Time will tell).

In short, 2024-2025 have been breakout years for both companies in terms of visibility. QUBT moved from essentially stealth-mode R&D to having a functioning product (Dirac-3) and a brand-new fab, plus riding a stock surge that gave it immense capital. D-Wave proved its staying power by delivering new tech (Advantage2), significantly expanding its customer base, and seizing a surprising stock market rally to fortify itself financially. These developments position QUBT and D-Wave for the next phase – but also set high expectations that they’ll need to meet.

Key Executives and Partnerships

Leadership: Who’s running QUBT and QBTS?

• At Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT), the leadership blends entrepreneurial, academic, and government experience. Dr. Yuping Huang, interim CEO (and likely permanent CEO going forward), is the scientific visionary behind QCI’s photonic tech. As a physics professor at Stevens Institute, he led the university’s quantum research lab and founded QPhoton, bringing deep expertise in optics. Huang took the helm to drive the company’s technical execution. Supporting him, Robert Liscouski (QCI’s co-founder and former CEO) serves as an executive chairman/advisor – Liscouski is a former U.S. Homeland Security official who provides connections in government and a focus on security applications. QCI’s newly appointed CFO, Chris Roberts, and COO, Dr. Milan Begliarbekov, handle the financial operations and day-to-day management as QCI scales up manufacturing quantumcomputinginc.com. It’s worth noting QCI’s board of directors includes luminaries like Hon. James Cartwright (retired US Marine Corps General) and tech investors, indicating the company has some high-profile backers interested in its success. The presence of academic advisors (e.g. Dr. Brian La Cour from UT Austin, Dr. Javad Shabani from NYU) also bolsters QCI’s scientific direction.
• At D-Wave (QBTS), the torch is carried by Dr. Alan Baratz, CEO since 2020. Baratz has an interesting background: he led Java development at Sun Microsystems in the 1990s and held senior roles at IBM and Cisco. He joined D-Wave initially to run R&D and then became CEO, bringing a mix of technical and business acumen. Under Baratz, D-Wave has sharpened its message around practical quantum computing and sought to integrate with enterprise customers’ needs datacenterdynamics.com. Mark Johnson (VP, Quantum Technologies) is one of D-Wave’s long-time quantum gurus, often evangelizing applications. The company’s co-founder Geordie Rose is no longer directly involved (he left years ago to start AI companies), but D-Wave still has early team members like Eric Ladizinsky (chief scientist, a renowned physicist) guiding the technology. CFO John Markovich ensures the finances (he orchestrated the fundraising spree). D-Wave’s board features industry veterans like Steve West (chairman, with deep tech background) and leaders from its major investors PSP Investments and NEC Corp. This blend of technical leadership and seasoned executives has helped D-Wave maneuver through the tricky SPAC process and the demands of being a public company.

Partnerships: Alliances and Collaborations

Both companies have woven extensive partnership networks to augment their capabilities and reach customers:

• QUBT Partnerships: QCI is leveraging partnerships to punch above its weight. Its collaboration with NASA (multiple contracts via NASA centers) effectively makes NASA both a client and a partner in advancing QCI’s tech for space use prnewswire.com quantumcomputinginc.com. QCI’s Cooperative R&D Agreement with Los Alamos National Lab gives it access to one of the top quantum research teams and supercomputing resources to benchmark its machines quantumcomputinginc.com. In academia, QCI works with Stevens Institute of Technology (where its lab is based) and has engaged students and professors via hackathons and joint projects. The Sanders Tri-Institutional Therapeutics Discovery Institute partnership brings QCI into the pharma research sphere, which could be a gateway to the healthcare industry if results are promising quantumcomputinginc.com. On the industry side, QCI’s MOUs with Spark Photonics and Alcyon Photonics (both are photonic chip/design startups) are meant to help QCI validate its foundry output and get those chips into the hands of potential users quickly iceberg-research.com. Essentially, Spark and Alcyon will facilitate evaluations of QCI’s photonic chips by their network of clients in the integrated photonics community – a smart way for QCI to gain credibility in a space where it’s a newcomer. QCI has also signaled work with technology integrators like SLI Ventures (for government contracting) and has a marketing agreement with Infinity Labs (an Air Force-focused tech incubator) to identify defense use cases. While none of these partnerships individually transforms QCI’s fortunes overnight, together they serve to validate QCI’s tech, provide early use-cases, and offer channels to customers (government agencies, labs, etc.) that a small company would struggle to reach alone.
• D-Wave Partnerships: As an established player, D-Wave’s partnerships run broad and deep. In the commercial sector, D-Wave’s showcase partner is Mastercard – they have an ongoing collaboration to explore quantum for enhancing credit card loyalty programs, fraud detection algorithms, and other fintech applications (Mastercard even spoke at D-Wave’s Qubits user conference about their progress). Deloitte is another big name: D-Wave has worked with Deloitte’s consulting arm to develop quantum-hybrid solutions for clients (e.g., optimizing workforce scheduling). Partnerships with software startups like Zapata Computing and 1QBit (now rebranded as QuantumBasel in Switzerland) have helped D-Wave integrate its annealers into broader software platforms, making it easier for companies to use quantum without needing to start from scratch. In the public sector, D-Wave’s partnership with Davidson Technologies we discussed (targeting U.S. defense applications) is particularly notable; it not only yielded a system installation but also political support, as Alabama lawmakers lauded the effort to bring quantum computing to missile defense research hpcwire.com. D-Wave was also named an “awardable vendor” by the U.S. DoD’s Tradewinds procurement program in 2024 dwavequantum.com, meaning defense agencies can more easily contract with D-Wave for projects – essentially pre-clearing some of the bureaucratic hurdles. On the distribution side, the Carahsoft partnership (Jan 2025) is key to selling into U.S. government agencies en masse carboncredits.com, since Carahsoft is a major reseller on government IT schedules. In academia, D-Wave has collaborative research going on with universities like USC (which has hosted a D-Wave in its Quantum Computing Center for years), University of British Columbia (for algorithm research), and Japan’s Tohoku University (which bought a D-Wave several years back). Also, Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure are important partners: D-Wave’s quantum service is available through AWS’s Braket platform and was one of the first supported on Azure Quantum as well – this cloud integration extends D-Wave’s reach to all users of those big platforms. Finally, D-Wave is a founding member of industry consortia like the Quantum Computing Coalition and the Quantum Economic Development Consortium (QED-C), partnering with competitors and government to promote the quantum industry. Overall, D-Wave’s partnerships are about driving adoption and integration – making sure its quantum solver is plugged into the right channels where end-users (be it a Fortune 500 company or a federal agency) can utilize it for real problems with minimal friction.

Expert Analysis and Commentary

The quantum computing sector in general, and QUBT and D-Wave in particular, elicit a mix of excitement and skepticism from experts. Given the speculative frenzy in their stocks, several analysts and researchers have weighed in on the hype vs. reality of these companies:

• Hype & Valuation Concerns: Many market commentators urge caution. A Motley Fool analysis in September 2025 starkly noted that both D-Wave and QUBT have achieved multi-billion valuations despite tiny revenues and big losses, calling QUBT’s $2–3 billion market cap “wildly out of step” with its mere “$373,000 in sales” and ~$70M loss nasdaq.com. The author warned that quantum technology is still largely in the realm of science experiments and not yet a commercial workhorse, comparing these companies to “early stage biotech” in terms of risk nasdaq.com. Similarly, 24/7 Wall St. observed that QUBT’s parabolic stock rise in 2025 seemed fueled more by momentum and FOMO than fundamentals, bluntly stating “QUBT’s valuation indicates it is in bubble territory” 247wallst.com. The piece highlighted that quantum conference buzz and even unrelated news (like Nvidia’s investments in quantum) were lifting all quantum stocks indiscriminately 247wallst.com 247wallst.com. It urged that QUBT’s photonic promise, while intriguing, does not justify its mid-cap valuation absent substantial revenue growth – any stumble could lead to a sharp correction 247wallst.com.
• Technology Outlook: On the technical front, experts acknowledge D-Wave’s achievements but debate their long-term importance. Quantum computing researcher Scott Aaronson once quipped that D-Wave’s annealer is like “a very specialized engine” – powerful for certain tasks, but we don’t yet know how widely those tasks will matter. There’s also an ongoing debate: will quantum annealing scale to solve problems classical computers truly can’t (beyond narrow demonstrations)? D-Wave’s recent “quantum advantage” result in a materials simulation ir.dwavesys.com is a positive sign, but skeptics want to see broader proof. John Preskill (who coined “quantum supremacy”) has noted that annealing might hit walls unless combined with error correction or new techniques, whereas gate-model systems (like those IBM and Google pursue) aim for long-term broad quantum computing, albeit needing breakthroughs in error correction. For QUBT, photonic quantum computing garners interest: several startups (PsiQuantum, ORCA Computing, etc.) and academic groups are pursuing it. Experts say photonics could excel at quantum networking and certain optimization algorithms; the challenge is that photons don’t naturally interact, so you need complex setups (beam splitters, non-linear crystals) to create entanglement. QUBT’s “entropy quantum computing” approach of using dissipation creatively is novel, but it’s not yet peer-reviewed at scale. Analysts generally consider QUBT’s tech high-risk, high-reward – it’s unproven, but if it works, room-temperature quantum computing would indeed be a game-changer. In a Forbes interview (July 2025), QCI’s then-CEO William McGann claimed their photonic systems could achieve advantages in optimization with far less overhead than superconducting systems, highlighting a test where Dirac-3 reportedly solved an example optimization in milliseconds that classical solvers struggled with. However, external experts would likely view such claims cautiously until independently verified.
• Competitive Landscape: Many commentators suggest that the “better quantum computing stock” might be neither QUBT nor D-Wave, but rather more established tech companies. The Motley Fool piece humorously concluded that between QUBT and QBTS, the better pick is “neither,” instead suggesting Alphabet (Google) or Microsoft as safer ways to invest in quantum nasdaq.com. The reasoning: Google, IBM, Microsoft have massive R&D budgets and existing profitable businesses, allowing them to play the long game in quantum without risking bankruptcy nasdaq.com. These giants have teams of PhDs and have already achieved notable milestones (Google’s 2019 quantum supremacy experiment, IBM’s 433-qubit processor in 2022, etc.). Therefore, an investor could get exposure to quantum progress by owning those companies, without the extreme volatility of a pure-play. However, risk-tolerant investors might still prefer the pure-plays for their multi-bagger potential if quantum leaps ahead.
• Timeline Realism: A consensus among scientists is that practical, large-scale quantum computing (the kind that revolutionizes industries) is not imminent. MIT’s Quantum Index report in 2024 concluded the field “remains far from” ready for large-scale commercial apps nasdaq.com, and many academic researchers echo that sentiment, stressing we’re likely a decade or more away from fault-tolerant quantum computers. This doesn’t mean intermediate uses (like D-Wave’s current optimization tasks or IonQ’s small-scale quantum simulations) have no value – they do, especially for learning and niche improvements. But experts caution not to overestimate what near-term devices can do. Dr. Shohini Ghose, a quantum physicist, often reminds audiences that quantum computers today are “like the early days of flight: we’re barely off the ground.” This perspective tempers the excitement around quantum stocks. It suggests that companies like QUBT and D-Wave will need to survive a potentially long “quantum winter” before the technology fully blooms. During that time, continuous incremental progress and finding interim markets (like quantum-inspired classical algorithms, or selling enabling technologies such as QCI’s photonic chips for non-quantum uses) will be crucial.
• Short Seller Allegations: An Iceberg Research report (Nov 2024) took direct aim at QUBT, calling it a “perma-scam” that relies on flashy announcements to drive stock sales iceberg-research.com. Iceberg alleged that QCI’s November 2024 press releases (about foundry purchase orders) were misleading, pointing out that QCI quietly removed the name of UT Austin from one release after the university likely objected iceberg-research.com. The report described QCI’s foundry as a “phantom,” claiming investigators saw only a small office with no heavy industrial equipment at the listed address iceberg-research.com. It also highlighted QCI’s use of a “toxic” financier (Streeterville Capital) for prior funding and cast doubt on the credibility of its partnerships iceberg-research.com iceberg-research.com. QCI’s stock initially dipped on this report, but later recovered dramatically as the 2025 quantum rally took off. Still, such allegations underscore the risk: if QCI cannot substantiate its technology and starts missing its own milestones, investor confidence could collapse. D-Wave hasn’t faced as pointed short attacks, perhaps because as a longer-standing company it has more observable substance (real customers, published papers, etc.). But D-Wave has its critics too – some argue D-Wave’s tech is a “dead end” if gate-model qubits achieve supremacy, and note that D-Wave’s need to constantly raise money via stock suggests it hasn’t found a self-sustaining business model yet.

In essence, expert commentary acknowledges that quantum computing is exciting but extremely challenging, and that both QUBT and D-Wave, in their own ways, are attempting something revolutionary. They laud D-Wave for delivering useful quantum tools sooner than most, and they’re intrigued by QUBT’s fresh approach. However, they caution investors not to get swept up in hype: the road to a quantum future is long, and detours or setbacks are almost guaranteed. Diversification and patience are urged. As one analyst put it, “Viable quantum computing may be many years away… there’s no guarantee these companies or indeed anyone will succeed, and even if they build it, it must be not just working but better than classical solutions to matter” nasdaq.com. That grounded viewpoint is important to remember amid the futuristic excitement.

Comparison to Other Quantum Players (IonQ, Rigetti, IBM, etc.)

To put QUBT and D-Wave in context, let’s compare them with a few key players in the quantum computing space:

• IonQ (NYSE: IONQ): IonQ is often considered the leader among the new wave of quantum startups that went public via SPAC (IonQ in 2021, D-Wave and Rigetti in 2022, QCI uplisting in 2023). IonQ’s technology is trapped-ion quantum computing, a gate-based approach using ytterbium ions suspended in electromagnetic traps and manipulated with lasers. IonQ’s qubits are high-fidelity (very low error rates individually) but relatively slow, and systems currently have on the order of 29 physical qubits (with ~#AQ 25 “algorithmic qubits” usable in algorithms, by IonQ’s metric). IonQ has been steadily improving its hardware, using photonic coupling to link ion modules. In 2024-25, IonQ made big moves: it announced a new system (#AQ 64 goal by 2025), and it acquired two companies (Lightspeed and QCI’s namesake aside, confusingly) plus made a blockbuster $1.1B bid to acquire Oxford Ionics in the UK datacenterdynamics.com. That proposed Oxford Ionics acquisition, if it closes, would give IonQ cutting-edge trapped-ion chip technology (Oxford Ionics integrates ion traps on semiconductor chips). IonQ’s finances stand out: it projects $<20M revenue in 2023, yet had over $500M cash (as of early 2023) from its SPAC and follow-on. Amazon Web Services and Lockheed Martin are investors in IonQ 247wallst.com, and Amazon’s cloud has a $36.5M stake in IonQ and is collaborating to offer IonQ’s systems on AWS datacenterdynamics.com. In Q2 2025, IonQ reported a remarkable $20.7M in revenue (boosted by one-time deals) datacenterdynamics.com, and raised its full-year forecast to $82–100M – far above D-Wave’s or QCI’s revenue, showing IonQ’s strong commercial traction. IonQ’s stock also soared in 2023 (up 1000% at one point) but has been volatile. Comparison: IonQ vs QCI – IonQ is much further ahead in having a working general-purpose quantum computer accessible on the cloud (IonQ’s systems can run arbitrary algorithms, while QCI’s are specialized). IonQ has significant partnerships (with Airbus, Dow Chemistry, etc.) and real revenue from customers exploring quantum solutions. QCI is earlier-stage and more speculative in tech. IonQ vs D-Wave – IonQ’s trapped-ion machines can in principle solve a wider array of problems (e.g. they can run Shor’s algorithm or any quantum circuit within their qubit limit), whereas D-Wave’s annealer can’t. However, IonQ’s current scale is small and operations are slow (circuit depth limits, etc.), so D-Wave can tackle larger optimization instances right now (albeit only optimization). IonQ’s strategy is to aggressively scale up and perhaps skip error correction by making very high-quality qubits (they talk about reaching 1024 qubits by 2028 in their roadmap). Many view IonQ as the pure-play with the most promise for broad quantum advantage, whereas D-Wave is the “here-and-now” specialist and QCI is a wild card with new ideas. IonQ’s market cap (around $3–4B in Sept 2025) is similar to D-Wave’s and QCI’s, but some analysts argue IonQ’s valuation is more justified given its progress and partnerships 247wallst.com. In fact, the 24/7 Wall St. piece suggested IonQ might be the “smarter quantum wager” among the small caps, citing IonQ’s ~$37M trailing revenue and $1.6B cash as evidence of its stronger position 247wallst.com.
• Rigetti Computing (Nasdaq: RGTI): Rigetti is a superconducting qubit company like IBM/Google but smaller. It runs its own fab in California and has developed chips of 80+ qubits (though with high error rates historically). Rigetti had a tough 2022–23 (tech challenges, CEO change, layoffs), but in 2024 it refocused on improving qubit fidelity and multi-chip scaling. By Q2 2025, Rigetti’s revenue was $1.8M (mostly government research contracts) datacenterdynamics.com, and it won a 3-year, $5.8M U.S. Air Force contract in 2025 for quantum computing R&D 247wallst.com – a positive sign. Rigetti’s new CEO, Subodh Kulkarni, has aimed to demonstrate a meaningful quantum advantage by 2026 with a modular 256-qubit system. Still, Rigetti is behind IonQ in market adoption and behind the giants in qubit count. Its stock has been very volatile (trading under $1 for much of 2023, then spiking by hundreds of percent in early 2025 during the quantum rally, much like QUBT’s did). Rigetti’s market cap by late 2025 (few hundred million) is actually far lower than QUBT, IonQ, or D-Wave, implying investors view it as having more to prove. Comparison: Rigetti vs D-Wave – They target different problems (general vs annealing). Rigetti vs QCI – Both are smaller speculative plays, but in different tech domains (superconducting vs photonic). Rigetti has more direct competition (IBM, Google), whereas QCI is forging into relatively uncharted photonic territory. Both Rigetti and QCI burn cash and rely on shareholder funding (Rigetti too did dilutive fundraises in 2023). Interestingly, Rigetti and QCI have both courted government projects to sustain them (Rigetti had DARPA and NSF grants). If Rigetti succeeds in its technical roadmap, it could become a direct competitor to IBM’s services; if not, it risks fading. QCI, if successful, could carve out a unique photonic niche. So far, IonQ has outperformed Rigetti in the SPAC cohort, and QCI leapfrogged Rigetti in market cap purely on hype. That shows how unpredictable investor sentiment is in this sector.
• IBM Quantum: IBM is the established heavyweight in quantum computing. It has built a series of ever-larger superconducting quantum processors: 127-qubit (Eagle, 2021), 433-qubit (Osprey, 2022), and as of late 2023, IBM announced a 1,121-qubit processor named Condor. IBM’s approach is still NISQ (no full error correction yet), but they are pathfinding with a clear roadmap toward scaling and eventually error-corrected machines by 2026–2030. IBM offers its quantum processors via the IBM Quantum Network and cloud, boasting over 180 partner organizations using their systems for research and early applications. Unlike the startups, IBM doesn’t depend on quantum for its revenue – it’s a tiny part of a $60B company – so IBM can patiently invest. IBM’s key differentiator is an integrated stack: they build hardware, develop the open-source Qiskit software platform, and work closely with clients (Boeing, HSBC, Cleveland Clinic, etc.) to explore use cases. In 2024, IBM reported some of its customers are now running certain models (like finance risk analyses) on quantum hardware that approach or exceed classical performance for those specific cases, thanks to techniques like error mitigation. IBM also has a large quantum workforce training program. Comparison: IBM vs D-Wave/QCI – IBM doesn’t offer annealing machines, so it’s not directly competing with D-Wave’s product (in fact, some IBM Quantum folks have politely acknowledged D-Wave’s niche). But IBM’s long-term goal of a universal fault-tolerant quantum computer would overshadow annealing if achieved, because it could simulate an annealer anyway. IBM vs QCI – IBM has ventured into photonics too (via research into photonic interconnects between quantum chips), but IBM’s main stake is in superconducting tech. If IBM succeeds with its thousand-qubit chips and error correction in coming years, companies like QCI might find it hard to remain relevant unless their photonic tech can leapfrog in scalability or cost. For now, IBM coexists with startups: it even partners with some (for example, IBM’s Quantum Network includes startup hardware from companies like Quantinuum and Atom Computing, but not D-Wave or QCI yet). Many industry observers see IBM as a likely early winner in delivering a useful quantum advantage in a broad sense, perhaps around 2026-2027 with error mitigated 1000+ qubit processors. IBM is a benchmark: D-Wave and QCI often position their progress in contrast to IBM (“we don’t need dilution refrigerators” says QCI; “we have practical use cases now, not just future error-corrected dreams” says D-Wave). Both strategies have merit, but IBM’s presence means the clock is ticking for smaller firms to carve out defensible territory.
• Google (Alphabet) and Microsoft: Google’s quantum AI division (within Alphabet) achieved the first “quantum supremacy” experiment in 2019 and in 2023 said it demonstrated quantum error correction scaling (exponentially suppressing error rates with more qubits). Google is reportedly working on a new generation of superconducting qubit chips (their 2021 prototype had 72 qubits called Sycamore; they likely have larger ones in lab). Google aims for a useful error-corrected quantum computer by 2029. Microsoft, on the other hand, is pursuing a very advanced concept: topological qubits using exotic Majorana particles. Microsoft has yet to build even one stable topological qubit, but in 2023 it published evidence of progress. Meanwhile, Microsoft offers Azure Quantum, a cloud service where users can access IonQ, Quantinuum, and Rigetti hardware (and maybe D-Wave in the future). Microsoft is essentially hedging by supporting all approaches until its own might pay off. Comparison: For investors, Google and Microsoft’s quantum efforts are buried inside huge companies, so you don’t get pure exposure. But in terms of competition, if Google or Microsoft announced a major breakthrough (like a 1000-qubit device with low error rates), it could diminish the perceived advantage of smaller players. Some analysts actually think the most likely quantum computing “revenue” winners in the next 5 years are these big cloud providers – because whichever hardware wins, workloads will probably run on cloud infrastructure (owned by Amazon, Microsoft, Google), and these giants can simply partner with or acquire the winning hardware provider. Indeed, Amazon has invested in IonQ and provides access to multiple devices (IonQ, D-Wave, Rigetti, OQC) on AWS; it’s somewhat agnostic and ready to capitalize on quantum via its cloud dominance.
• Other Notables:Quantinuum (formed by Honeywell + Cambridge Quantum) is a major competitor with a different approach (trapped-ion, like IonQ, but with a large industrial parent Honeywell providing resources). It’s not public but is considered one of the leaders in quantum computing, already offering 32-qubit ion systems (Model H1) and working on next-gen. Quantinuum also has robust quantum software (they released the popular TKET toolkit) and focuses on near-term algorithms (they have a product doing quantum random number generation that’s commercially sold to banks). If Quantinuum ever IPOs, it would be in the mix with IonQ as top-tier. PsiQuantum is another – a Silicon Valley unicorn with >$600M VC funding, secretly developing photonic quantum computers with a goal of a million qubits using silicon photonics. They are very R&D stage (no product yet), but they directly validate that photonics is seen as a viable path by serious investors (the difference is PsiQuantum is ultra-secretive until they hit a huge milestone; QCI is public and broadcasting each step). If PsiQuantum achieves something big, it could overshadow QCI, but also, if QCI can advance faster in some aspects, it could gain an edge as a nimble player. Various startups: e.g., Alice & Bob (France, making cat-qubits), Pasqal (France, neutral atoms), QuEra (USA, neutral atoms), Xanadu (Canada, photonic Gaussian boson sampling) – each has its niche. None of these are public yet, but they contribute to the fierce competition for talent and tech breakthroughs.

In comparing QUBT and D-Wave to these players, one stark fact stands out: market credibility and revenue. IonQ and Quantinuum are landing notable deals and demonstrating performance on par with their claims, whereas QUBT is still proving itself. D-Wave, for all its accomplishments, faces the narrative that its technology might be limited in the long run. However, D-Wave’s customer list and $18M projected 2025 revenue finance.yahoo.com do put it ahead of most startups in actually monetizing quantum. QUBT, by contrast, is more similar to an early-stage startup in metrics, but with a public listing that gave it outsized capital to play with. So one could say: IonQ vs D-Wave – IonQ has the more flexible tech and a long-term upside if quantum computing really takes off universally, whereas D-Wave has carved out the present-day usage niche. QUBT vs IonQ – IonQ is far ahead in execution and partnerships; QUBT is chasing novel physics that could leapfrog if it pans out, but that’s a big if. Rigetti vs QUBT – both underdogs; Rigetti has struggled but still has IP in superconducting circuits, while QUBT is doing something new but must avoid being all vapor. Time will tell who among these survives the eventual industry shakeout – experts suspect consolidation is inevitable (maybe we’ll see mergers, e.g., if a company like QCI can’t build a full stack alone, might it license its photonic tech to a bigger player or merge? If D-Wave’s gate-model efforts falter, might it partner with someone like Rigetti or even be acquired for its customer base? All speculative, but plausible in a few years).

Market Outlook for Quantum Computing

The quantum computing market in 2025 is a paradoxical mix of enormous long-term potential and nascent current value. On one hand, forecasts and investments are growing rapidly. Consulting firm McKinsey dubbed 2025 “the year of quantum from concept to reality,” projecting that by 2035 quantum computing could create an economic value between $28 billion and $72 billion mckinsey.com globally across hardware, software, and services. Another report by IDC and Hyperion Research suggests a similar multi-billion market size by the early 2030s, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) above 30%. Sectors like finance, pharmaceuticals, automotive, and aerospace are expected to be early adopters due to the high value of optimization and simulation in those fields moodys.com. Additionally, governments worldwide have poured funding into quantum R&D (over $30B collectively pledged this decade across the US, EU, China, etc.) – indicating strong support to push the technology forward.

In the short term, however, the actual market (measured in revenue from quantum computing services/products) is tiny – on the order of hundreds of millions of dollars in 2023-2024. For example, The Quantum Insider’s data showed that in 2024, only 37 quantum computing systems were ordered worldwide (not just delivered, but ordered) totaling about $854M in value thequantuminsider.com. Many of those might be research systems or pilot deployments. Interestingly, the number of units sold is increasing (more systems, perhaps smaller ones, to more customers) while the average price per system is dropping (from $48M in 2021 to $19M in 2024) thequantuminsider.com. This suggests quantum computing is slowly becoming more accessible as a wider range of buyers dip their toes in, often with smaller or cloud-based solutions rather than huge bespoke machines. The trend of multi-year contracts and full-stack engagements is also growing thequantuminsider.com. Companies like IBM and Quantinuum often sign 3-5 year deals to provide quantum access, support, and upgrades as a bundle thequantuminsider.com. For the market, this means more predictable growth if customers stay engaged year over year.

By 2025, we are seeing the first signs of quantum computing moving from lab curiosity to part of enterprise innovation strategy. A Deloitte April 2025 report noted a 12% year-over-year increase in the number of organizations initiating quantum computing projects globally deloitte.com. It also estimated that 250,000 jobs in quantum could be needed by 2030, reflecting a ramp-up in talent demand deloitte.com. These are bullish indicators that an industry is forming. Consulting firms now have quantum practice groups, and cloud providers are integrating quantum APIs into their workflows.

However, the elephant in the room is the timeline for a clear quantum advantage in practical tasks. We have some isolated quantum advantage demonstrations (like Google’s random circuit sampling, or D-Wave’s magnetic material simulation), but these haven’t translated to day-to-day business value just yet. Many experts think the inflection point will come when error-corrected quantum computers can be built – which might be late 2020s or 2030s. In the interim, “Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum” (NISQ) computers will likely provide incremental benefits in niche areas, often in tandem with classical computing (so-called quantum-inspired or hybrid algorithms). The market outlook through 2025-2027 is thus one of gradual growth: we can expect more pilot projects in industries like finance (quantum Monte Carlo for pricing), supply chain (route optimization), chemistry (molecule simulation for materials or drugs), and machine learning (quantum kernels, etc.). Each successful pilot will build confidence and potentially lead to operational use of quantum for that specific task. For instance, if a bank finds that a quantum optimizer consistently shaves 5% off certain portfolio risk metrics, it might use it in production for that narrow purpose – that transition from experiment to production is what will drive real spending on quantum services.

The geographic landscape matters too. The US, Europe, and China are in a sort of quantum “space race.” Chinese researchers have claimed their own quantum supremacy experiments (with photonics and superconducting devices) and China is heavily funding quantum communication (satellites, QKD networks). Europe has a coordinated flagship program and startups like IQM and Pasqal making strides. The implication: the market might also see fragmentation or regional specialization. North American companies like QUBT and D-Wave primarily serve US and allied markets (D-Wave’s expansion in Japan, Europe, Middle East was through partnerships carefully aligned with allies). If geopolitical competition intensifies, governments could become even bigger customers (for secure communication, advanced computing for defense, etc.), effectively acting as a subsidy to the market.

One should also consider quantum software and encryption – by 2025, the urgency of “quantum-safe” cryptography is climbing. The U.S. government set timelines for agencies to adopt post-quantum cryptography (PQC) by 2030, anticipating that a large quantum computer in the wrong hands could break current encryption. This has created a side market for quantum-resistant encryption tools, and interestingly, companies like QCI are dabbling there (they mention “quantum cybersecurity solutions” like quantum random number generators or quantum key distribution devices sold to a bank) quantumcomputinginc.com. While tangential to computing, it’s part of the quantum industry’s growth – providing solutions to problems that quantum computing itself generates (the need for new cryptography).

In summary, the market outlook sees robust investment continuing (the first five months of 2025 already saw quantum startups raise 70% of the capital raised in all of 2024 thequantuminsider.com, indicating larger and later-stage funding rounds). Commercial orders and contracts are climbing (70% value growth in 2024 thequantuminsider.com), and user interest is broadening. But the revenue for pure-play companies in 2025 is still modest and mostly from early adopters and R&D budgets. Many industry analysts expect a sort of “trough of disillusionment” might come if progress plateaus for a bit – meaning, after the initial hype (which we are seeing in stock prices), there could be a realization that scaling is hard and things might slow, possibly shaking out weaker players. Yet, virtually all experts agree that in the long run (10-20 years), quantum computing will likely become a transformative industry – the only debate is how soon and through what path. For investors and stakeholders now, it’s about positioning to survive and capitalize on that eventual breakthrough.

Risks and Investment Considerations

Investing in quantum computing companies like QUBT and D-Wave is not for the faint of heart. These are some of the riskiest bets in the tech sector – essentially investing in R&D projects with uncertain payoff timelines. Let’s outline the key risks and considerations:

1. Technology Risk – Will it Work? Both QUBT and D-Wave face fundamental technical hurdles. QUBT’s photonic entropy quantum computing approach is experimental; there’s a non-zero chance that scaling it to a level of quantum advantage proves infeasible or takes far longer than anticipated. If some critical component (say, maintaining coherence in optical circuits or achieving enough entanglement) doesn’t pan out, QCI’s whole premise could falter. D-Wave’s annealing, while proven in operation, is limited in scope. A risk for D-Wave is that as other technologies mature, annealing could be sidelined. For example, if by 2030 gate-model quantum computers with error correction can solve the same optimization problems better and faster, D-Wave’s tech might become obsolete. D-Wave is trying to mitigate that by working on its own gate-model qubits, but they’re behind others in that race. Additionally, competitors like *QuantumCircuits (QCI) – not to be confused with QUBT – or Pasqal (neutral atoms) might leap ahead, creating tech risk for QUBT/D-Wave if those new methods outperform. In short, there is a significant possibility of technological failure or irrelevance, which would likely render these companies’ stock nearly worthless in a worst-case scenario. Investors must be comfortable with that binary outcome potential.

2. Execution and Cash Burn: These companies will need to execute nearly flawlessly to succeed – hiring top talent, achieving R&D milestones, protecting IP, and converting prototypes into products. This is hard in an emerging field. There’s also operational risk: QUBT just stood up a chip fab, which is a costly and complex endeavor to run. Managing yield, supply chains for specialized materials, and environmental controls are new challenges for them. D-Wave, now with a large cash pile, must manage it wisely; spending $800M could accelerate progress, but misallocation (or building something that doesn’t generate returns) could just as easily burn through it. History has examples: many AI hardware startups in the 1980s burned through cash chasing parallel computing and failed, only for AI to rise decades later under different players. Quantum could see similar “boom-bust” cycles. Both QUBT and D-Wave are not profitable and likely won’t be for years. They will continue to record large net losses (e.g. D-Wave lost $167M in Q2 2025 largely due to accounting for warrant liabilities datacenterdynamics.com, and even ignoring that, operating losses are substantial). They will thus keep burning cash to fund R&D, cloud infrastructure (D-Wave must maintain those expensive dilution fridges and facilities), and overhead. If progress is slower than expected, they might require additional funding. While QUBT and D-Wave currently have healthy cash reserves, if the quantum market doesn’t ramp up revenue as optimistically forecast, by say 2027–2028 they might need to raise more. Given their already elevated share counts, that could mean further dilution or debt (though debt is hard to secure without steady revenue).

3. Market Adoption & Competition: As discussed, competition is fierce and comes in many forms – from well-funded private startups to tech giants. There’s a risk that QUBT or D-Wave might simply get outcompeted. For instance, if IonQ or IBM or another company demonstrates a superior solution for a key application, potential customers and partners could flock to that, leaving QUBT or D-Wave struggling to sign new deals. D-Wave does have a first-mover advantage in annealing, but there are alternative approaches to combinatorial optimization (e.g., Toshiba’s simulated bifurcation algorithm on classical hardware, or other quantum-inspired algorithms) that could undercut the demand for quantum annealers if they provide similar benefits without needing exotic hardware. QUBT, likewise, might find that other photonic computing companies (like PsiQuantum or ORCA) achieve breakthroughs sooner; since QUBT’s IP is presumably narrower, a bigger player could overshadow them unless QUBT moves very fast or partners with them. Also, both companies rely on partnerships – e.g., D-Wave’s Carahsoft partnership is great, but Carahsoft also can offer competitors’ solutions to the government. QUBT’s NASA relationships are valuable, but NASA also works with many quantum vendors (IonQ, D-Wave, ColdQuanta, etc.). So maintaining a competitive edge is a continuous battle.

4. Stock Volatility & Valuation: The share price swings in 2025 have been extreme: QUBT rising 3200% in a year 247wallst.com, D-Wave nearly 1800% YTD tickeron.com, followed by periodic steep drops. For investors, this volatility can be gut-wrenching – huge gains can evaporate if sentiment shifts or if any bad news lands. For example, QUBT stock plunged ~36% from July to August 2025 at one point 247wallst.com when some excitement cooled (before surging again on new hype). These stocks also have relatively high short interest (QUBT’s float short was ~16-20% in 2025 247wallst.com 247wallst.com, indicating many traders betting on a drop). This can fuel squeezes on the way up, but also heavy selling pressure on the way down. The lofty valuations mean any stumble – a delayed product, a missed target, a negative research finding – could trigger a major correction. Investors should be prepared for the possibility of sharp declines. Already, class-action lawsuits have emerged for QUBT, typically claiming the company made overly optimistic statements during its stock run-up 247wallst.com. Even if such suits are without merit (common any time a stock swings wildly), they create distraction and potential liabilities.

5. Regulatory/Government Risk: Quantum tech has national security implications. It’s possible that export controls or government regulations could impact these companies. For instance, the U.S. might restrict sales of advanced quantum tech to certain countries. D-Wave, as a Canadian/U.S. company, has to navigate U.S.-Canada regulations (it had to get U.S. approval to work with certain international partners). If QUBT’s photonic chips are seen as dual-use technology, there could be export licensing needed. Conversely, government support can be a boon but may come with strings attached. If either company takes significant government funding, there may be constraints on IP or requirements to achieve certain milestones.

6. Human Capital: Quantum computing relies on top-tier scientists and engineers – a very limited talent pool. The risk of not attracting or retaining the right people is real. For example, if key photonics experts left QUBT, it could set the project back significantly. D-Wave has historically had some brain drain (a few notable scientists left to join Google’s or IBM’s teams over the years). Now, with ample funding, they can pay better, but still, companies like Google can poach talent with even larger salaries or research freedom. Small companies must also maintain morale during inevitable technical roadblocks; one big breakthrough at a competitor could demoralize staff if not managed well.

7. Dilution & Share Structure: As noted, both companies have been issuing lots of new shares. QUBT’s outstanding share count exploded over the past year due to those $280M+ in new financing (likely adding tens of millions of shares). D-Wave’s ATM offerings massively increased its float as well. For existing shareholders, this dilution means their slice of future profits (if any) is much smaller. It’s a necessary evil to fund development, but it can cap stock upside unless the company’s value grows even faster. One should examine each company’s SEC filings (10-Qs) to understand potential overhang: for instance, do they have a lot of warrants or convertible notes (which can flood more shares into the market)? D-Wave’s large warrant liability in its financials datacenterdynamics.com implies many warrants likely at low strike prices (from the SPAC) that can convert to shares, potentially diluting as those get exercised during stock spikes. QUBT similarly might have warrants from its PIPE financings. This overhang can exert downward pressure on stock prices over time.

8. No Earnings Anchor: Neither QUBT nor D-Wave has positive earnings (or even positive EBITDA). Traditional valuation metrics (P/E, PEG ratios, etc.) are meaningless here. This means the stock prices are driven entirely by narrative, news, and future expectations. That’s inherently risky – if the narrative shifts (say, the market’s risk appetite decreases due to macro factors like interest rate hikes), these kind of speculative stocks can tumble regardless of company-specific news. The “duration risk” is high: the payoff is far in the future, so rising interest rates or any trend that makes investors prefer near-term profits can disproportionately hurt these stocks. We saw some of that in late 2022 when SPAC and high-tech stocks collapsed in a high-rate environment.

9. Macro and Geopolitical factors: If we hit a recession, companies might cut R&D budgets, slowing adoption of quantum services (why experiment with quantum when belts are tightening?). Government funding could also shift with political winds – a new administration might reduce science funding or redirect it. Geopolitically, quantum computing is often cited in U.S.-China tensions; any incident (like sanctions or export bans) could affect partnerships and supply chains (for instance, QUBT’s unnamed “Asia” research institute client – if it were in a country later restricted, that could fall through). Conversely, increased government urgency (due to competition with China) could suddenly boost spending (positive for these firms). It’s a double-edged sword.

10. Exit Strategy (for investors): One has to consider: are these companies aiming to remain independent and become large firms, or could they be acquired? Acquisition is a possible exit – a big tech company might decide to buy D-Wave or QUBT for their IP/talent. That could reward investors (typically at a premium). However, antitrust and national security might complicate, say, Google trying to buy D-Wave (regulators might fret about concentration of quantum expertise). Also, if the technology is not proven, big companies may prefer to wait and see rather than buy early. So investors shouldn’t bank on a bailout via acquisition. It’s safer to assume these companies will sink or swim on their own execution.

Bottom Line: QUBT and D-Wave offer the allure of being part of something potentially transformative – the dawn of computing’s next era. But with that comes venture-like risk. Investors must consider their risk tolerance and time horizon. If you’re investing, it should be money you can afford to lose, and you should be prepared to hold for many years and weather extreme volatility. Diversification is critical; even quantum bulls often suggest holding a basket of quantum stocks or a tech ETF rather than putting all eggs in one such company. For those bullish on the long-term prospects, periodic pullbacks can be buying opportunities – but only if one has strong conviction that the company will emerge as a winner.

As one observer noted, “We are in the Gold Rush phase of quantum computing – and like the 1800s Gold Rush, some will strike it rich but many will just sell shovels or go home empty-handed.” Right now, QUBT and D-Wave are akin to prospectors with state-of-the-art tools, digging for a vein of quantum gold. They’ve shown glimmers (QUBT’s tiny sales, D-Wave’s early apps) but not the motherlode. Caveat emptor – buyer beware – applies well here. By staying informed (as we hope this report helped) and being clear-eyed about the risks, one can better navigate this exciting yet unpredictable frontier of quantum technology.

Sources: Recent financial reports and press releases of QUBT and D-Wave, analysis from Nasdaq/Motley Fool nasdaq.com nasdaq.com, 24/7 Wall St. 247wallst.com 247wallst.com, The Quantum Insider thequantuminsider.com thequantuminsider.com, DataCenterDynamics datacenterdynamics.com datacenterdynamics.com, CarbonCredits.com carboncredits.com carboncredits.com, Iceberg Research iceberg-research.com iceberg-research.com, among others, as of September 2025.