Wall Street’s Wild 48 Hours: NYSE Hit by Fed Jitters, Tariff Shocks & Earnings Surprises

Key Highlights (Sept. 25–26, 2025)

Market Slump After Record Highs: U.S. stocks fell for a third straight session, breaking a streak of record peaks earlier in the week. The Dow Jones lost about 0.4% on Thursday (closing at 45,947) and continued its slide into Friday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each shed roughly 0.5% ^[1]. Profit-taking set in as investors reacted to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s warning that equity valuations appeared “stretched” ^[2].
Red-Hot Economic Data: An unexpected drop in weekly jobless claims to just 218,000 – the lowest in months – and a sharp upward revision of second-quarter GDP growth to 3.8% (annualized) underscored the economy’s resilience ^[3] ^[4]. Strong durable-goods orders in August (fueled by an AI-related capex boom) added to the upbeat data ^[5]. Paradoxically, these robust indicators spooked investors, as they dampened hopes for aggressive Fed rate cuts. Fed futures markets trimmed expectations for another 2025 rate cut, pricing in ~39 bps of additional easing by year-end (slightly less than prior bets) ^[6].
Trump’s Tariff Bombshell: President Donald Trump shocked markets by announcing a new round of tariffs set to begin Oct. 1. The U.S. will slap 100% duties on imported branded pharmaceuticals, 25% tariffs on heavy trucks, and 50% tariffs on kitchen cabinets, vanities, and upholstered furniture ^[7]. The surprise move rattled healthcare stocks worldwide – Asian and European drugmakers tumbled immediately ^[8] – and raised fears of higher costs. Uncertainty swirled as details remained scant, including whether U.S. trade partners (e.g. the EU, Japan) might be exempt ^[9].
Big Stock Swings on the NYSE:Intel shares surged 8.9% in one day – a standout in an otherwise down market – after a report that it had approached TSMC about a strategic investment/partnership in chip manufacturing ^[10]. In stark contrast, CarMax stock plunged 20% to five-year lows after the used-car retailer’s earnings revealed a sharp profit drop ^[11]. Accenture fell ~2.7% despite beating revenue forecasts, as investors parsed its guidance cautiously ^[12]. Retail giant Costco, meanwhile, delivered a strong quarter – beating sales and profit estimates – thanks to Americans flocking to its low-price bulk goods amid inflation, though its stock was little changed after a modest post-market dip ^[13] ^[14].
Earnings & Disclosures Drive Movers: Beyond CarMax and Costco, other corporate updates moved major stocks. Micron Technology reported results and an upbeat chip demand forecast, initially lifting its stock (though it ultimately ended down ~2.8% post-report) ^[15]. Oracle drew attention with plans to raise a massive $15 billion via bond sales ^[16]. General Motors shares got a 2.3% boost after UBS upgraded the automaker to “Buy” and news broke of a potential $2.3 billion federal loan for GM’s partner Lithium Americas, in which the U.S. government may take a 10% stake ^[17]. Conversely, Freeport-McMoRan nosedived 17% after declaring force majeure at its Indonesian mine – a blow to copper supply that hammered materials stocks ^[18].
M&A and IPO Buzz: The autumn IPO revival continued on the NYSE. Notably, ticket reseller StubHub made a splashy debut after pricing its IPO at $23.50 per share (a roughly $8.6 billion valuation) ^[19]. It led a parade of listings that raised over $4 billion combined last week ^[20], marking the busiest IPO stretch since 2021. Additionally, a new SPAC led by investor Chamath Palihapitiya (American Exceptionalism Acquisition Corp.) priced a $300 million IPO to begin trading on Sept. 26 ^[21]. On the mergers front, Boeing secured blockbuster aircraft orders: an over $8 billion deal with Uzbekistan Airways lifted Boeing’s stock mid-week ^[22], and by Friday, Turkish Airlines confirmed a purchase of 225 Boeing jets after high-level talks at the White House ^[23]. (Boeing’s 737 MAX and 787 Dreamliner backlogs are poised to grow significantly from these deals.)
Macro Clouds & Fed Signals: Investors braced for the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – the PCE Price Index – released Friday, hoping for clues on whether price pressures are ebbing ^[24]. Fed officials’ commentary added mixed signals: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee cautioned against cutting rates “too quickly” given inflation risks ^[25], even as the Fed has already delivered its first rate cut of 2025 (25 bps last week) and penciled in more relief ahead. The odds of another cut at the October FOMC meeting stood around 83%, down from 92% mid-week ^[26]. Meanwhile, new Trump administration policies stoked debate – e.g. a Truth Social post by Trump floated forcing drug companies to slash insulin prices, and the looming government shutdown deadline (Oct. 1) raised the specter of delayed economic data and regulatory disruptions ^[27] ^[28].
Experts’ Take – Caution Amid Optimism: Market veterans are striking a cautious tone. “Historically we’re at the high end of valuations,” noted Rick Meckler of Cherry Lane Investments ^[29], alluding to the S&P 500’s forward P/E near levels not seen since the dot-com era ^[30]. Some fear the market’s torrid AI-fueled rally may have led to “irrational exuberance” reminiscent of the late 1990s ^[31]. On the bright side, Meckler added, “one big positive is it seems like the government is going to let big tech get bigger,” hinting at a benign regulatory climate for tech giants ^[32]. Forward-looking analysts also emphasize that if incoming data (like Friday’s PCE inflation) stays in line with forecasts, the Fed likely won’t deviate from its path of gradual rate easing – “likely another cut in October,” according to Mike Mussio of FBB Capital ^[33]. In short, Wall Street’s bulls and bears are locked in a tug-of-war between booming economic fundamentals and the threat of higher-for-longer interest rates. The next major catalyst: next week’s September jobs report, which investors hope will clarify whether this rally can regain momentum or if further consolidation lies ahead ^[34].

NYSE Market Indexes – From Record Highs to Rate Jitters

After a euphoric run to all-time highs earlier in the week, U.S. equity indices hit a speed bump over the September 25–26 span. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 0.37% on Thursday (−171 points) to 46,121, and the S&P 500 lost ~0.5%, as nearly every sector sank ^[35] ^[36]. Tech-heavy indexes like the Nasdaq Composite also slipped ~0.5%. These declines marked the third consecutive daily drop for Wall Street ^[37], ending a streak of record closes that kicked off the week. By Friday’s close, the Dow had slipped under 46,000, wiping out its earlier gains and putting major benchmarks modestly in the red for the week.

What drove the pullback? In a word: interest rates. Late Wednesday and into Thursday, an influx of strong economic data prompted traders to rethink how fast the Federal Reserve might keep cutting rates. The U.S. economy is showing “confusing” signals, as one portfolio manager observed, with growth still remarkably robust even as the Fed eases policy ^[38]. Thursday’s data dump was a case in point – weekly unemployment claims unexpectedly fell to their lowest since spring (218,000) while the Commerce Department revised Q2 GDP upward to +3.8% (the fastest growth in nearly two years) ^[39]. “Robust economic data – such as stronger durable goods orders and an upward revision to GDP – has shifted expectations around future rate cuts” and lifted the U.S. dollar ^[40]. In other words, paradoxically good news became bad news for stocks: evidence of economic strength fueled worries that the Fed has more room to stay hawkish, potentially slowing or scaling back the expected pace of rate reductions.

On top of that, Fed officials themselves added to the uncertainty. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee voiced unease about “cutting rates too quickly” given persistent inflation risks ^[41]. This came just a week after the Fed delivered its first rate cut of 2025 (a 25 bp trim on Sept. 18) and signaled openness to further easing. Now, traders are less convinced an October follow-up cut is a slam dunk – CME FedWatch odds for an October rate cut slipped to ~83%, down from 92% a day prior ^[42]. “The economic data…calls into question how much the Fed may cut again and whether it needs to cut again this year,” explained Peter Tuz of Chase Investment Counsel ^[43]. With inflation data (the PCE index) due Friday and the all-important jobs report the following week, investors grew cautious, deciding to lock in profits after the market’s massive summer rally.

Notably, Chair Jerome Powell’s own remarks earlier in the week likely catalyzed some of this profit-taking. In a Sept. 23 interview, Powell cautiously noted that equity prices appear “fairly highly valued”, echoing former Fed chief Alan Greenspan’s famous “irrational exuberance” concerns ^[44]. Those comments at record highs “gave traders an excuse to trim back” positions ^[45]. By Thursday, valuation worries were front and center: certain stock metrics are hitting their richest levels since 2021, and any further melt-up would push them into territory “not seen in decades” (recalling the dot-com bubble) ^[46]. It’s no surprise, then, that nine of eleven S&P sectors finished in the red on Thursday ^[47], led by economically sensitive groups like materials and industrials.

Friday’s session (Sept. 26) saw a continuation of the cautious mood. Investors were digesting the overnight news that President Trump unleashed new tariffs (more on that below), and awaiting the morning’s PCE inflation report. Early indications suggested another downbeat open – U.S. futures were slightly negative amid a global risk-off tone ^[48]. By the afternoon, inflation came in near forecasts, and bond yields stabilized, helping stocks pare losses. But the major indexes still ended modestly lower (their fourth decline in a row) as traders closed out the volatile week. The Dow Jones ended around 45,800 (roughly –0.3% on Friday), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each shed about 0.5% in choppy trading (based on intraday reports).

Notably, market breadth deteriorated during this pullback. On Thursday, declining stocks swamped advancers by over 3-to-1 on the NYSE ^[49], and the S&P 500 saw as many new 52-week lows as highs – a sign that leadership has narrowed. Still, some analysts argue the dip is healthy. “The market was ripe for a pullback” after the relentless summer rally, said one strategist, adding that high valuations + Fed ambiguity = a breather was due ^[50]. By cooling off slightly, the market may actually be setting a stronger base for the fourth quarter – assuming earnings and data don’t deliver any nasty surprises.

Major NYSE Stock Movers and Corporate News

Even amid the index declines, there was plenty of action beneath the surface. Several high-profile NYSE-listed stocks saw outsized moves on Sept. 25–26 driven by company-specific developments:

Intel (INTC) – The blue-chip semiconductor giant was a rare big gainer, soaring +8.9% on Thursday and helping prop up the tech sector ^[51]. The catalyst: a Wall Street Journal scoop (confirmed by Reuters) that Intel has approached Taiwan’s TSMC about deepening their partnership, potentially via investments in new chip production capacity ^[52]. Investors cheered the prospect that Intel might leverage TSMC’s advanced foundry technology – a move that could accelerate Intel’s turnaround plans. The news signaled further consolidation in the chip industry, as the lines blur between chip designers and manufacturers. Intel’s surge single-handedly kept the S&P tech sector slightly in the green Thursday ^[53], and provided a silver lining that not all stocks were sinking under macro pressures.
CarMax (KMX) – In stark contrast, America’s largest used-car dealer crashed and burned. CarMax stock cratered –20.1% on Thursday, hitting its lowest level in over five years ^[54] ^[55]. The company’s fiscal Q2 earnings (reported pre-market 9/25) badly disappointed: profit fell well short as higher interest rates and consumer caution dented used-car sales. CarMax’s CEO acknowledged “a challenging environment” with rising borrowing costs curbing auto demand. The steep selloff erased over $2 billion in market cap in one day. It also dragged down other auto-retail names and was a major factor in the NYSE’s lagging consumer discretionary sector Thursday.
Accenture (ACN) – The consulting and IT services heavyweight announced solid quarterly results, but still saw its stock dip –2.7% ^[56]. Accenture beat revenue estimates for its latest quarter, indicating demand for digital transformation and cloud projects remains resilient. However, the company issued cautious guidance (citing FX headwinds and longer sales cycles in some areas), which gave investors pause. The “sell the news” reaction suggests high expectations were already baked in – ACN shares had rallied into the print. Some analysts noted that Accenture’s bookings growth, while positive, wasn’t as blockbuster as earlier in the year, prompting a bit of profit-taking despite the earnings beat ^[57].
Costco Wholesale (COST) – The warehouse retail bellwether posted impressive fourth-quarter results on Thursday evening, highlighting how bargain-hunting consumers are flocking to discount chains. Costco’s revenue and profit topped analysts’ forecasts for the quarter ended Aug. 31 ^[58]. Same-store sales (ex-gas) rose a healthy ~6.4% ^[59], and membership fee income jumped +14% to $1.72B ^[60] – a sign of a loyal and growing customer base. Executives credited Costco’s strategy of limited product selection and bulk pricing for helping shoppers fight inflation ^[61]. Expert take: “Costco appears to be reinvesting last year’s membership fee hike into sharper pricing for members…a win-win for shoppers and shareholders,” observed CFRA analyst Arun Sundaram ^[62]. Despite the stellar results, Costco’s stock only slipped ~1% after hours ^[63] and was roughly flat on Friday. The muted reaction likely reflects that Costco’s shares had already rallied 20%+ year-to-date; investors may want confirmation that momentum will continue through the holiday season. Still, Costco’s beat underscores a broader trend this week: value-oriented retailers are thriving, even as high-end consumer brands struggle.
Micron Technology (MU) – While not listed on the NYSE (Micron trades on Nasdaq), it’s worth noting as a market mover: the memory-chip maker reported quarterly earnings Wednesday night (Sept. 24) and issued an upbeat forecast for AI-related memory demand ^[64]. Initially, Micron’s results lifted semiconductor stocks (hence some post-close strength cited for MU ^[65]). However, by Thursday Micron’s stock reversed to close down ~2.8% ^[66], as investors perhaps grew concerned about ongoing China restrictions affecting chip sales. The initial optimism fading reflects how tech earnings are being carefully scrutinized – good news is welcome, but any caveats (like export controls or inventory gluts) can quickly sour sentiment.
Oracle (ORCL) – In corporate finance news, Oracle Corporation’s bond plans grabbed attention mid-week. Bloomberg reported (and Reuters later noted) that Oracle is prepping a massive $15 billion bond sale ^[67] to help refinance debt (likely related to its Cerner acquisition financing). Oracle’s stock dipped ~1.7% on the news ^[68], as some equity holders fretted about the company taking on new debt load amid rising interest rates. However, bond investors seemed eager – reflecting confidence in Oracle’s cash flows and perhaps the last window of relatively lower rates before yields climbed further on the week’s data. This would be one of the year’s largest corporate bond issuances, indicating that companies are seizing the moment to lock in capital while credit markets remain accommodative.
General Motors (GM) – Detroit’s auto giant enjoyed a 2.3% stock pop on Wednesday after a flurry of positive developments ^[69]. First, UBS upgraded GM to “Buy”, arguing the stock was undervalued and poised to benefit from any UAW labor deal. Secondly, Reuters broke news that the Trump administration is considering a $2.26 billion loan to help finance GM’s partner Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass project (a major U.S. lithium mine) ^[70]. Even more eye-opening: the government may take an equity stake up to 10% in Lithium Americas as part of the deal ^[71]. The prospect of federal support for domestic EV battery materials sent Lithium Americas’ U.S. shares skyrocketing almost 100% in one day ^[72]. It also buoyed GM, as a stable lithium supply would strengthen GM’s EV roadmap. The news underscores a theme of the week: Washington’s deepening role in industrial and energy markets, whether via tariffs (the stick) or subsidies and investments (the carrot).
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) – A dramatic story unfolded in the commodities space. On Sept. 24, mining giant Freeport declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia – one of the world’s largest copper and gold mines – due to a deadly accident and subsequent operational halt ^[73]. The announcement implied Freeport will miss delivery obligations for copper concentrate. This sent Freeport’s stock plunging 17% on the NYSE ^[74], its worst single-day drop in years. The ripple effects were felt in the materials sector: copper prices spiked on supply fears ^[75], but stocks of other miners slid as investors reassessed sector risk. Freeport warned its Q3 copper and gold sales would be lower than forecast ^[76]. By Sept. 25–26, Freeport shares stabilized, but remained sharply lower. Analysts at Goldman Sachs even cut their global copper supply forecast on the news ^[77]. This episode highlights how sudden supply shocks (akin to an oil disruption) can whipsaw resource stocks – a reminder that not all market-moving news was macro or Fed-related this week.

In addition to these individual names, sector-wide moves were notable. On Thursday, Energy stocks actually outperformed – the S&P 500 Energy sector climbed +0.9% ^[78] – thanks to a bounce in oil prices. U.S. crude oil hit a seven-week high above $94/barrel after a surprise drop in inventories ^[79], giving a boost to oil producers. Technology was flat overall (+0.03%) as Intel’s surge offset weakness elsewhere ^[80]. Conversely, Materials were the worst-hit group (–1.6%), with the Freeport fiasco and some profit-taking in steel and lithium names after big runs ^[81]. Utilities and REITs – bond-proxy sectors – also lagged as Treasury yields popped on the strong data.

One more corporate subplot: Big Tech vs. Big Government. While not a single stock story, a key development was the absence of any new regulatory bombshells against tech giants, despite rumblings in D.C. The U.S. FTC’s antitrust trial against Google continued quietly, and no major antitrust legislation advanced this week. This status quo prompted comments like Rick Meckler’s – that regulators seem willing to “let big tech get bigger” ^[82]. Indeed, Amazon made a small acquisition in India’s fintech space (buying lender Axio) with little fanfare ^[83], and Microsoft edged closer to closing its Activision-Blizzard takeover as U.K. authorities appeared satisfied by concessions (though final approval was pending). The lack of new crackdowns arguably supported sentiment for FAANG stocks, which held up relatively well during the late-week sell-off. For example, Apple and Microsoft each declined less than 1% over the two days, better than the broader indices (and Apple got a lift from strong China app sales data mid-week). In short, beyond tariffs, regulatory headlines were sparse – a quiet that tech investors welcomed.

Earnings Roundup: Corporate Results and Financial Disclosures

Though late September is typically a lull before Q3 earnings season, a handful of important NYSE-listed companies reported results or provided financial updates during Sept. 25–26:

Accenture (ACN): As noted, Accenture’s fiscal Q4 report (revenue +4% YoY, EPS beat) showed solid demand for consulting, cloud and security services. However, new bookings growth slowed and the company issued a cautious revenue outlook (~3–6% growth, below some estimates). The market punished the stock despite the beat, suggesting high valuation sensitivity – ACN trades at ~25× earnings, so any hint of deceleration can weigh on its price ^[84].
CarMax (KMX): The used-car retailer’s Q2 FY2025 earnings were the week’s biggest disappointment. Net income fell ~30%, and even though revenue slid only 13%, it missed forecasts. Higher financing costs are reducing customer affordability, and CarMax’s inventory buying was more conservative (to avoid overpaying in a declining price environment). The result was a profit miss that justified the stock’s 20% collapse ^[85]. Management struck a hopeful tone about improvements in the second half, but for now, investors are in “show me” mode on CarMax.
Costco (COST): Delivered better-than-expected Q4 FY25 numbers. EPS came in at $5.87 (vs $5.80 consensus) on $86.2B revenue (slightly above $86.1B est.) ^[86] ^[87]. Key drivers were strong membership renewals and private-label (Kirkland) sales. Notably, Costco has been navigating Trump’s tariffs by focusing on local sourcing and limited SKUs, which management says has mitigated cost pressures ^[88]. The company did not announce a highly anticipated membership fee increase this quarter – analysts expect one in 2024 – but even without it, membership fee income jumped 14%. Investors appear to be taking a wait-and-see stance on how Costco’s traffic holds up through the holidays. The stock’s mild dip may reflect profit-taking after a big year-to-date run, rather than any concern with the results themselves (which were robust). Costco’s executive VP Bob Nelson remarked on the call that September sales trends were “solid” and that inflation on Costco’s basket is running only ~3% now (versus 8% a year ago), which bodes well for consumer demand.
Darden Restaurants, Nike Inc., Paychex, Inc. – It’s worth mentioning a few other notable earnings outside the NYSE domain to capture the broader corporate earnings picture of the week: Darden (owner of Olive Garden) topped estimates and raised its dividend, suggesting the U.S. consumer is still eating out despite inflation. Nike (which reported late Thursday on the Nasdaq) beat on profit but gave cautious gross margin guidance; its stock initially popped then faded, showing the market’s mixed sentiment on retail. And HR services firm Paychex beat earnings and raised guidance, an indicator that small business hiring and wages remain strong – dovetailing with the macro data theme.
SEC Filings and Financial Disclosures: A few noteworthy filings hit the tape. Tiptree Inc. (TIPT) – a financial holding company – disclosed an agreement to sell its subsidiary Fortegra (an insurance underwriter) to South Korea’s DB Insurance for $1.65B ^[89]. The deal, effectively a private M&A exit, sent Tiptree’s thinly traded stock up. Elsewhere, Mirion Technologies (MIR), a radiation detection company, announced a public offering of $325M of common stock (upsized due to strong demand) ^[90]. Such secondary offerings indicate companies taking advantage of higher stock valuations to raise cash – a minor dilution but often seen positively if funds are for growth or debt reduction. Lastly, a quirky development: GameStop fired its CEO mid-week (in a surprise SEC 8-K), and activist investor Ryan Cohen took over as executive chairman. While GameStop isn’t a major index mover, its cult status made it a talking point on financial social media, reflecting the ongoing influence of retail traders even as “meme stock” mania has cooled.

In summary, corporate earnings news was a mixed bag – some big beats (Costco), some big misses (CarMax) – and stock reactions were correspondingly mixed. Importantly, investors rewarded companies demonstrating pricing power and adaptability (e.g. Costco’s tariff mitigation strategy ^[91]), while punishing those facing cyclical headwinds or execution issues. As the official Q3 earnings season looms (set to kick off in mid-October with big banks and tech), this week’s mini-earnings cycle suggests high expectations are built into many stock prices. Any slip-ups on margins or outlooks can result in outsize declines, given lofty valuations.

Mergers, Acquisitions & IPO Activity

Deal-making and new listings were prominent in the financial news, highlighting a reawakening of capital markets after a quiet first half of 2025:

IPO Boomlet Continues: September has seen a flurry of initial public offerings, and this week was no exception. On Thursday, StubHub – the popular ticket resale platform – finally made its NYSE debut after a long delay. The company’s IPO priced at $23.50/share (midpoint of the range), raising roughly $800 million and valuing StubHub around $8.6 billion ^[92]. This was one of the most anticipated tech IPOs of the year, and it comes amid what Reuters calls “the busiest week for the U.S. IPO market since 2021,” with half a dozen companies (led by fintech firm Klarna) raising $4+ billion combined in recent days ^[93]. StubHub’s CEO Eric Baker rang the NYSE opening bell and touted the firm’s growth plans (including a push into primary ticket sales) ^[94]. The stock initially popped above $24 before settling near the offer price – a decent but not frenzied start, indicating investors are being selective. The success of StubHub’s listing and others in September – including ARM Holdings earlier in the month – suggests market appetite for IPOs is improving as volatility had been low and indices were at highs. However, one caveat: if the market pullback worsens, the IPO window could shut quickly again (especially with a potential government shutdown that would freeze SEC approvals and “likely dampen momentum in equity capital markets” ^[95]).
SPACs Are Back (Cautiously): Also notable, a high-profile SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) led by venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya returned to the scene. The American Exceptionalism Acquisition Corp. priced an upsized $300 million IPO on Sept. 25 and began trading on the NYSE under the ticker “AEXA” on Friday ^[96]. Palihapitiya, famous for earlier SPAC deals, is targeting U.S. companies that align with an “American exceptionalism” theme (perhaps defense or manufacturing). The SPAC’s launch – the largest in a while – indicates a tentative revival of blank-check vehicles after that market cooled significantly in 2022–2023. Investors will watch AEXA’s performance and eventual merger target to gauge if SPACs can regain popularity.
Major M&A Moves: Traditional merger news was somewhat light in the U.S. over these two days, but a few deals stood out globally. In aviation, Turkish Airlines announced a massive purchase of 225 Boeing aircraft (75 wide-body 787s and 150 narrow-body 737 MAXs) in a deal finalized after Turkish President Erdoğan met with President Trump in Washington ^[97]. This is a huge win for Boeing (NYSE: BA) as it secures a decade’s worth of deliveries; notably, Trump himself had teased this order during the meetings ^[98]. Separately, Norwegian Air agreed to buy 30 more Boeing 737s to expand its fleet ^[99]. These orders signal confidence in air travel demand and strengthen the Boeing-Airbus duopoly dynamics (Boeing’s stock ticked up on the news, bucking Friday’s downdraft). In other deals: JSW Steel in India got court approval to acquire Bhushan Power (a $2.3B takeover) ^[100] – relevant to global steel supply chains; and Brazil’s Gol Airlines ended merger talks with rival Azul ^[101], indicating consolidation isn’t always a sure thing.
Strategic Partnerships: A fascinating partnership was reported on Sept. 25: CoreWeave, a crypto-mining-turned-AI-cloud startup, is expanding its deal with OpenAI in a $6.5 billion agreement ^[102]. OpenAI will use CoreWeave’s GPU cloud services – a sign of the immense capital flowing into AI infrastructure. While CoreWeave is private, the deal highlights how even unlisted companies are influencing sentiment for public ones (e.g., NVIDIA and other AI beneficiaries). Also, Intel’s approach to TSMC (mentioned earlier) blurs the line between competitor and collaborator in semiconductors, reflecting how strategic partnerships are an alternative to outright M&A in tech.
Private Equity & Others: Rumors swirled that some private equity-led takeovers could be in the works given depressed valuations in certain sectors. One example: small-cap publisher Scholastic Corp. saw its stock jump briefly on speculation of activist involvement or sale (though nothing confirmed). Additionally, consumer brands (especially in food/beverage) are said to be drawing buyout interest as they struggle with rising costs – however, no major announcement came during these two days.

Overall, the capital markets are thawing after a long freeze. IPOs are getting done, big-ticket M&A (like IBM’s $4.6B deal for Apptio earlier in the month) is back on radar, and companies are raising funds via equity and debt (as seen with Oracle and Mirion). As noted in a Reuters Explainer, one risk factor to this momentum is the looming U.S. government shutdown: a shutdown starting Oct. 1 would stall SEC reviews and likely halt new IPO pricings until Washington reopens ^[103]. Banks and issuers are thus racing the clock to price deals – a dynamic possibly contributing to the burst of offerings now.

Macroeconomic & Policy Developments Impacting Markets

Several macro and policy events during Sept. 25–26 had direct ramifications for NYSE trading:

Blowout U.S. Economic Data: As detailed earlier, Thursday’s data trifecta – jobless claims, GDP revision, and durable goods – painted a picture of an economy still running hot. Weekly initial unemployment claims fell by 14,000 to 218,000 ^[104], surprising economists who expected a slight rise. This hints that layoffs remain low and the labor market, while cooler than in 2024, is not cracking. Meanwhile, the final Q2 GDP came in at +3.8% (vs 3.3% prior est.) ^[105], driven by stronger consumer spending and a sharply narrower trade deficit ^[106]. In fact, it’s the fastest quarterly growth since late 2023 ^[107]. Additionally, core capital goods orders (a proxy for business investment) rose a solid 0.9% in August, buoyed by an “AI spending boom” on equipment ^[108]. Taken together, these reports suggest the Fed’s earlier rate hikes have not derailed growth – raising the question of whether more easing is needed. As Reuters succinctly noted, the data “suggested further interest rate cuts…were probably unwarranted” at this stage ^[109]. This realization is what upset the stock market, as investors recalibrated their Fed bets.
Federal Reserve Signals: The Fed is in focus with its next meeting just a month away. Powell’s commentary about valuations (as mentioned) grabbed headlines, but more tangible were remarks from other officials: Goolsbee’s caution on cuts ^[110], Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr’s speech on bank capital (which had minor impact on financial stocks), and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s comment earlier in the week suggesting the Fed should commit to further cuts to support jobs (a dovish counterpoint). The division among policymakers – some urging patience, others wanting more cuts – is adding to market choppiness. Importantly, the Fed’s first 2025 rate cut on Sept. 18 is still reverberating; it lowered the target rate to ~5.25% ^[111]. Initially that cut fueled a market rally (hence record highs by Sept. 22), but by Sept. 25–26, strong data had traders questioning if the Fed might pause again. One positive for equities: bond yields did retreat from recent highs earlier in the week after the Fed’s cut. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which had been north of 4.15%, eased to ~4.10% mid-week ^[112]. However, post-GDP data it inched back up. Yields on the 2-year note jumped on Thursday on the premise of “higher for longer” rates. The interplay of yields and stocks was evident – when yields jumped, rate-sensitive sectors (like tech and utilities) lagged; when yields stabilized Friday, stocks trimmed losses. This dynamic will persist as all eyes turn to September’s PCE inflation (which was expected to rise 0.3% MoM and ~2.7% YoY ^[113]) and then the October 6 jobs report for clarity on the Fed’s path.
Trump’s Tariffs & Trade Policy: By far the biggest policy surprise came late Thursday: President Trump announced via Truth Social a sweeping set of new tariffs aimed at foreign manufacturers. The headline measures: a 100% tariff on all imported branded drugs, a 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks, and 50% tariffs on imported kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and upholstered furniture, all to take effect October 1 ^[114]. This was on top of existing tariffs (many of which are at 5–10% levels). The news hit after the U.S. market close on the 25th, but its effects were felt globally by the 26th. Pharmaceutical stocks plunged in Asia and Europe – for instance, Japan’s pharma index fell ~1.2%, Hong Kong’s biotech index dropped 2%, and Indian drug makers tumbled as much as 3–5% ^[115]. Traders initially feared U.S. pharma companies would also suffer, but further details clarified that the 100% duty targets imported branded drugs (i.e. non-U.S. manufacturers). That could perversely benefit domestic pharma firms by raising rivals’ costs, though it might also increase patient prices. By Friday’s U.S. session, big American drugmakers (Merck, Pfizer, J&J) saw only minor stock moves, while European pharma ADRs (like Novartis, Sanofi) were down several percent. The furniture and home goods tariffs likewise hit certain retailers – e.g. IKEA’s not public, but shares of furniture chains dipped on fear of higher import costs. Truck tariffs (25%) seemed aimed at foreign commercial truck makers, possibly helping U.S. firms like PACCAR or Navistar. However, one major target is likely China and India’s pharmaceutical and furniture exporters. The lack of clarity on whether trade-deal partners (EU, Japan, Canada) get exempted added to uncertainty ^[116]. This tariff salvo is part of Trump’s ongoing protectionist agenda (just last week he imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and other goods). Markets generally frown on trade wars – recall 2018’s volatility – so this raises a caution flag. “We were bracing for sectoral tariffs on pharmaceuticals…only on patented drugs, so that’s important particularly for India,” noted Khoon Goh of ANZ Research ^[117], adding that the news likely extends the equity market weakness as investors adopt a “knee-jerk” defensive stance ^[118]. Indeed, emerging market equities fell on Friday partly due to these trade tensions. For U.S. markets, the tariffs introduce new headline risk: any retaliation from trading partners or further tariff announcements could inject volatility. Conversely, if exemptions are clarified or deals struck (as often happens behind the scenes), markets might regain calm. This will be a space to watch in coming weeks.
Government Shutdown Threat: A potential U.S. federal government shutdown on Oct. 1 is looming large. By Sept. 26, Congress remained deadlocked on funding, raising the probability of at least a short shutdown. Historically, markets have mostly shrugged off brief shutdowns ^[119]. But analysts warn this time could be different if a shutdown is prolonged: it would delay key economic reports (jobs, CPI, etc.) and leave the Fed “flying blind” in its data-dependent decision-making ^[120]. A shutdown could also freeze IPO approvals and SEC actions, as noted, which matters to capital markets ^[121]. In a novel twist, the White House signaled it might use a shutdown to implement mass firings of federal workers (part of Trump’s agenda to shrink government) ^[122], a move that could have broader economic ripple effects. While the shutdown hadn’t occurred yet by Sept. 26, the mere risk adds another layer of uncertainty. So far, markets haven’t panicked – the VIX volatility index remained moderate (~15). But if a shutdown hits and drags on, it could weigh on investor sentiment in October.
Global Macro News: Internationally, a few macro items of note coincided with our timeframe. The Bank of England had a meeting Sept. 25 and hinted at possibly pausing its rate hikes given cooler inflation – that boosted UK stocks mid-week and softened the pound. In Asia, China’s central bank (PBOC) made reassuring statements that it’s not in a rush to ease further unless needed ^[123], which initially disappointed Hong Kong markets (HSI fell ~0.1–0.2%). However, China later injected liquidity into its banking system, which stabilized sentiment by Friday. Also, Japan’s core inflation came in around 3% (still above BOJ target), keeping pressure on the BOJ ahead of its meeting – the yen touched multi-month lows near 150 per dollar, prompting intervention watch. None of these had direct, large impact on the NYSE, but they form the backdrop of a global market landscape where U.S. assets remain relatively strong. Indeed, the U.S. Dollar Index rose to its highest in months, on track for a weekly gain ^[124], thanks to the robust U.S. data. A stronger dollar can be a headwind for multinationals’ earnings, a point not lost on those companies reporting (Costco, for one, cited currency headwinds). Lastly, oil prices surged toward $95 and then eased slightly – Russia announced a halt to fuel exports, driving crude up ^[125]. Expensive oil is a double-edged sword: good for energy stocks, bad for sectors like airlines and a potential inflation accelerant. This likely contributed to some sector rotation on the NYSE (energy up, transports down).

In sum, the macro and policy environment from Sept. 25–26 was a mix of positive economic momentum and policy-induced uncertainty. Traders faced a one-two punch: a roaring economy (good for earnings) but that very strength leading to fears of less Fed support and even tighter trade policies. This complex backdrop helps explain why markets wobbled despite generally strong fundamentals.

Expert Quotes & Wall Street Commentary

Throughout this 48-hour whirlwind, analysts and strategists across Wall Street and beyond offered insights to help the public make sense of events:

“Irrational exuberance?” – The resurgence of that famous phrase speaks volumes. When Fed Chair Powell mused about high valuations, some likened it to Alan Greenspan’s 1996 warning of irrational exuberance pushing asset values too high ^[126]. Several commentators seized on this parallel. For instance, Ron Albahary, CIO at LNW in Philadelphia, noted the S&P 500 was pricing in ~23× forward earnings and “about 15% annualized earnings growth for the next five years, that sounds pretty rich to me” ^[127]. He said using Powell’s comments as an excuse to “trim back a little bit makes sense” ^[128]. This encapsulates a prevailing sentiment: valuations aren’t cheap, so any negative catalyst (Fed, tariffs, etc.) can prompt at least a temporary de-risking.
Soft landing vs. no landing: Many experts are debating whether the economy will slow gently or not at all. Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, argued that current Fed rates (around 5.25%) “are not slowing the economy down and not hurting the labor market either.” If job growth is faltering, he says, “it’s not the economy… it is the Trump 2.0 policies on immigration” (and tariffs) that are the culprit ^[129]. His point: the Fed might have to do less since other policies are doing the tightening. Rupkey’s stance is relatively bullish on growth – implying companies could continue to see strong demand.
Fed cut or not? – Mike Mussio, president of FBB Capital Partners, gave a balanced take on the Fed’s likely reaction to inflation data. If Friday’s PCE report aligns with expectations (which it more or less did), the Fed “won’t materially shift the path that it’s on, which is likely another cut in October” ^[130]. He effectively downplays the day-to-day data volatility, suggesting the Fed’s bias to ease due to earlier signs of labor market weakness remains intact. This is a reassuring message to markets not to overreact to one GDP or claims print. It also indicates some in the investment community still see a rate cut at the late-October meeting as the base case.
Valuations & Big Tech: Rick Meckler of Cherry Lane Investments struck a cautiously optimistic tone. Yes, valuations are “certainly at the high end” of historical ranges ^[131], he said, and sentiment had been running high. But he pointed out one supportive factor: regulators seem to be allowing “big tech to get bigger” ^[132]. This refers to the relatively light-touch antitrust environment so far (despite noise around Google and Amazon). If giants like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft can continue to expand unhampered, that provides a fundamental underpinning for the market leadership. In essence, the market’s narrow leadership by a few megacap tech stocks might continue, which could keep indexes buoyant even if smaller stocks struggle. Meckler’s quote made headlines as it captured the notion that as long as Big Tech isn’t broken up, investors see them as safe harbors in uncertain times.
Tariff turmoil: Trade experts chimed in on Trump’s tariff volley. Khoon Goh (ANZ Research), as mentioned, noted it’s key that the drug tariffs apply mainly to branded/patented meds, meaning generic producers (like many in India) might not be as hit ^[133]. He implied that clarity on this would determine whether the sell-off in pharma is overdone. Another strategist, Shierly Lim of Convera, summarized the market impact of both data and tariffs: “Stronger durable goods and an upward GDP revision… has driven the dollar higher. U.S. equities have sold off modestly as rate cut optimism fades.” ^[134]. She captured how these factors combined to give stocks a “one-two punch” – good economy news, plus new tariffs, equal caution.
Caution into Q4: A number of analysts advised clients not to panic from this mini-pullback but to position carefully. Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital, said after Powell’s speech that the market was “ripe for some sort of a pullback” and that “while [Powell] left the door open for another cut, no hint of when or how much… The market began to sell off on that.” ^[135]. His view is that this was a healthy purge of some froth. Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab (speaking on a financial network) noted internals were weakening (e.g. fewer stocks above their 50-day moving averages), and “rolling corrections” were happening under the surface even as indexes hit highs – now it’s just surfacing more broadly. She suggests staying diversified and possibly tilting toward quality stocks with strong balance sheets into year-end.
Sector-specific: Energy analysts celebrated oil’s rise: one called it “the biggest weekly gain in 3 months” for crude ^[136] and predicted energy stocks could break out if oil stays above $90. Conversely, housing market watchers pointed out 30-year mortgage rates topping 7.5% will eventually slow the economy (new home sales spiked in August, but that might be a final flurry before higher rates bite ^[137]). Ron Temple at Lazard warned that housing affordability is at multi-decade lows, a headwind for consumer spending down the road.
Geopolitical: While not heavily discussed within Sept. 25–26 news, a few experts alluded to geopolitical risks. There’s ongoing UAW strikes in the auto industry (no immediate resolution came this week, but production cuts are starting). Also, the looming possibility of a U.S. government shutdown was summed up by Nomura analysts as potentially making markets more volatile if data releases are halted ^[138] ^[139]. However, most strategists believe a short shutdown won’t materially alter economic trajectories – “a modest-to-negligible impact” if short-lived, according to a TD Economics note ^[140]. The key is duration and political brinkmanship.

In conclusion, expert commentary framed the NYSE’s late-week pullback as a natural reaction to an environment of cross-currents. The consensus seems to be: the economy is sturdy (which ultimately bodes well for corporate earnings), but that very sturdiness is forcing markets to recalibrate expectations on interest rates and policy. Financial forecasts remain cautiously positive – many banks still predict the S&P 500 will finish the year higher than current levels, riding on strong earnings growth around 10% for 2025 and assuming the Fed delivers a couple more rate cuts. But in the near term, analysts expect volatility to stay elevated as investors digest the “good news is bad news” dynamic.

As one trader quipped on a CNBC segment: “It’s like we’re too hot for our own good – the economy’s doing great, and that’s scaring the market. We might need a few cool data points to get stocks going up again.” In other words, a slight uptick in unemployment or a mild downside surprise in inflation might actually cheer Wall Street by reviving hopes of easier money. Until then, traders will be riding the seesaw – balancing stellar corporate fundamentals against the potential fallout of Fed moves and trade policies.

Bottom Line: The NYSE navigated a roller coaster 48 hours of news, from blockbuster economic stats and surprise tariffs to dramatic stock moves and key earnings. The outcome was a moderate pullback from record highs, a reminder that even bull markets aren’t one-way. Investors are now hungry for clarity – on inflation, on Fed policy, and on whether political events (tariffs, shutdown) will be mere noise or game-changers. The next few weeks, with critical data and the kickoff of earnings season, should provide that clarity. In the meantime, Wall Street’s message to Main Street is: buckle up, stay diversified, and don’t get spooked by short-term swings – the fundamental backdrop of solid growth and cooling (if still above-target) inflation suggests this isn’t the start of any major downturn, but rather a healthy rotation and reset as we head into the final quarter of 2025 ^[141].

Sources:

Reuters – Market Recap & Data: U.S. stock indexes’ performance and economic data ^[142] ^[143]; Fed outlook commentary ^[144] ^[145]; Sector moves and major stock highlights (Intel, CarMax, Accenture) ^[146] ^[147]; Expert quotes on valuations and tech ^[148].
Reuters – Economic Reports: GDP revision to 3.8% and durable goods/claims analysis ^[149] ^[150]; Trade deficit impact ^[151]; Quote from FWDBONDS economist on Fed rates & Trump policies ^[152].
Reuters – Trump Tariffs Announcement: Details of new tariffs on drugs, trucks, furniture ^[153]; Global market reaction (Asian pharma stocks tumbling) ^[154]; Lack of clarity on exemptions ^[155]; Commentary from ANZ’s Khoon Goh on tariff scope ^[156].
Reuters – Asia Market Wrap: Analysis of rate-cut expectations shifting (Convera strategist quote) ^[157]; Dollar and futures reaction ^[158].
Reuters – Rakuten Trade Daily Reports: Summary of Wall Street moves (Powell’s valuation warning triggering profit-taking) ^[159]; Jobless claims and GDP complicating Fed outlook ^[160].
Reuters – Stock News: Freeport-McMoRan force majeure and stock plunge ^[161]; Lithium Americas stake news boosting LAC & GM ^[162]; Oracle bond sale plans ^[163]; Energy sector rise with oil ^[164].
Reuters – Earnings Reports: Costco beats profit/revenue, tariff mitigation strategy ^[165] ^[166]; Membership fee income rise ^[167]; Post-earnings stock reaction ^[168].
Reuters – Market Explainers: Potential government shutdown effects on markets and data (Nomura and TD Securities notes) ^[169] ^[170]; SEC IPO pipeline freeze in shutdown ^[171]; White House layoff plans in shutdown scenario ^[172].
Reuters – IPO and Deals Coverage: StubHub IPO pricing and valuation ^[173], IPO market busiest since 2021 ^[174]; Turkish Airlines’ 225-jet Boeing order after Trump meeting ^[175]; Norwegian Air buying 30 Boeing jets ^[176]; Gol/Azul merger talks off ^[177].
Yahoo Finance/Investopedia – Market context: Third straight session of losses by Sept. 25 as GDP and claims surprise (Yahoo/Investopedia) ^[178]; Market breadth stats (NYSE advance-decline) ^[179].
Press Releases/Other: Mirion Technologies $325M offering news ^[180]; Chamath Palihapitiya’s AEXA SPAC IPO info ^[181]; Tiptree/DB Insurance deal summary (via Yahoo Finance/Reuters) ^[182].
Expert commentary via Reuters interviews: Ron Albahary on valuations and Powell’s warning ^[183]; Peter Tuz on confusing data implications ^[184]; Rick Meckler on high valuations but tech optimism ^[185]; Mike Mussio on PCE/Fed cut outlook ^[186]; Christopher Rupkey on economy vs Trump policies ^[187].