PCE Inflation Report and Market Impact on September 26, 2025
- Fed’s preferred inflation gauge ticks up: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.7% in August 2025 from a year earlier, a slight uptick from the 2.6% annual increase in July [1]. This is the fastest annual PCE inflation since February and reflects persistent price pressures despite earlier declines. Core PCE (excluding food and energy) held steady at +2.9% year-over-year, unchanged from July [2]. On a monthly basis, headline PCE prices increased 0.3% in August, up from 0.2% in the prior month – exactly in line with economists’ forecasts [3].
- Still above the Fed’s 2% target: The PCE inflation rate remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal – a threshold the U.S. has exceeded for an astonishing 54 consecutive months [4] [5]. While inflation has cooled significantly from the peaks seen in 2022 (when price growth hit multi-decade highs), annual gains are still “stubbornly” high relative to the Fed’s comfort zone [6]. Core PCE at 2.9% is nearly a full percentage point above target, underscoring that the battle against inflation is not over.
- Fed policy outlook cautious: The Fed eased rates by 0.25% last week – its first interest rate cut of 2025 – amid signs of a cooling job market [7]. However, officials have stressed caution about cutting too aggressively with inflation above target. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, for example, said he is “uneasy” with moving rates down “too quickly” given lingering inflation risks [8]. Analysts note that August’s slight inflation uptick is not expected to derail another quarter-point rate cut likely at the Fed’s late-October meeting, but it does reinforce a “wait-and-see” stance on further easing [9] [10]. “With inflation still above target, [this] release likely argues against significant cuts… in the coming months,” said Richard Flax, CIO at Moneyfarm [11].
- Market reaction muted: Financial markets took the PCE report in stride, as the data largely matched expectations. U.S. stock futures edged higher Friday morning after the release [12] – a sign that investors were relieved to see no negative surprises. By early trading, Dow Jones futures were up ~0.2% and S&P 500 futures ~0.1% [13]. Bond yields held relatively steady, and traders continue to bet that the Fed will cut rates again at its October meeting. Futures pricing suggests roughly an 85% probability of an October rate cut, only slightly lower than odds earlier in the week [14]. In other words, the modest rise in inflation was “right down the middle of the fairway” – keeping the Fed’s plans on track, as one strategist put it. Stocks had sold off for three straight days heading into the report, so the in-line inflation news helped calm market jitters.
- Resilient economy complicates Fed’s job: The inflation news comes amid a run of strong economic data that has both encouraged and complicated the Fed’s decisions. Just this week, GDP growth for Q2 was revised up to 3.8%, and weekly jobless claims plunged to their lowest since early summer [15] [16]. Consumer spending has remained solid – personal consumption rose around 0.4% in August, according to estimates [17] – even as households face higher prices. This economic resilience has reduced recession fears but also raised questions about whether the Fed needs to keep rates higher for longer. Fed officials are essentially balancing two forces: a cooling labor market that argues for stimulus, versus persistent inflation that argues for restraint [18]. “Inflation remains too high while the labor market…remains largely in balance,” noted Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, adding that current policy is only “slightly restrictive” – which he believes is “the right place to be.” [19]
- Tariffs and political pressure in the mix: Another wrinkle is the impact of new import tariffs and political pressure on Fed policy. The Fed is watching how President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on imports – such as recent 100% duties on certain drugs and higher levies on trucks and furniture – might feed into inflation in coming months [20] [21]. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and colleagues have indicated they will assess how these trade policies affect prices and growth before accelerating rate cuts [22]. Meanwhile, President Trump has been publicly pushing for bigger rate reductions, insisting “there is no inflation” and even deriding Powell as “too late” and a “moron” for not cutting faster [23]. The White House’s pressure underscores the political cross-currents facing the Fed. (Notably, Trump even attempted to fire a Fed governor who opposed easier policy, in a controversial move now tied up in court [24].)
PCE Inflation Climbs in August 2025 – Key Numbers
The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report shows that price pressures picked up slightly in August. According to the Commerce Department data released on September 26, the overall PCE price index was up 2.7% in August 2025 compared to a year earlier [25]. That marks a gentle increase from the 2.6% annual inflation rate in July, and is the fastest year-over-year PCE inflation reading since February. In practical terms, American consumers in August paid on average 2.7% more for the basket of goods and services than they did in August 2024. While that rise is modest by historical standards, it does indicate a second consecutive month of accelerating inflation, after prices had been decelerating earlier in the year.
Crucially, the core PCE index – which strips out volatile food and energy costs – rose 2.9% year-over-year, the same pace as in July [26]. Core inflation holding steady suggests that underlying price trends remain entrenched. The core PCE is often considered a better gauge of the trend because it isn’t skewed by short-term swings in gasoline or grocery prices. At 2.9%, core PCE inflation has essentially flatlined in recent months, refusing to drop closer to the Fed’s 2% goal.
On a month-to-month basis, prices in August showed moderate growth. The PCE price index increased by about 0.3% in August from July, a touch higher than the 0.2% monthly gain in the prior month [27]. This pickup was anticipated – economists had forecast a +0.3% monthly reading and 2.7% annual rate [28], so the outcome landed right on target. The core PCE index likely rose around 0.2% on the month, according to projections (keeping the core annual rate at 2.9%). These incremental monthly increases, if sustained, translate to inflation running in the mid-2% range on an annualized basis – not runaway by any means, but not at the Fed’s 2% ideal either.
How does this compare to other inflation measures? It’s useful to put the PCE figures in context of the more familiar Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI for August (reported by the Labor Department earlier in September) showed headline consumer inflation at 2.9% year-over-year, with core CPI (ex-food/energy) at 3.1% [29]. The CPI tends to run a bit hotter than PCE, partly due to formula differences and weightings (for example, CPI gives more weight to rent and out-of-pocket consumer expenses). Indeed, the Fed prefers the PCE index as its inflation yardstick in part because PCE accounts for changes in consumer behavior – for instance, if people switch to cheaper substitutes when prices rise [30]. This makes PCE a broader, more adaptable measure of cost of living. In August, that distinction shows up: PCE inflation (2.7%) came in a couple tenths lower than CPI (2.9%). The gap is even wider on core inflation: core PCE at 2.9% vs core CPI at 3.1%, illustrating that by the Fed’s chosen gauge, inflation is somewhat lower than what CPI headlines suggest [31].
Nonetheless, by any measure, inflation is above the central bank’s 2% objective. The fact that headline and core PCE are both roughly 0.7–0.9 percentage points above target highlights the lingering nature of price growth. In absolute terms, a 2.7% inflation rate is a far cry from the 6%+ readings seen in 2022, but it still means real incomes are eroding slowly and the Fed’s price stability mandate is not yet achieved. According to Reuters, August marks the 54th consecutive month that inflation (PCE) has exceeded 2%, underscoring just how long prices have been running hot [32]. The last time inflation was at or below target was in the pre-pandemic days.
Digging into what drove prices in August: detailed breakdowns show mixed trends. Energy prices, which had been a source of relief earlier, likely contributed to the uptick – oil and gasoline costs rose toward late summer. The CPI report, for instance, noted gasoline prices jumped 1.9% in August (seasonally adjusted) [33] [34], reversing some declines and nudging up transportation costs. Food prices also gained. Core services such as housing (rent/shelter costs) continued to climb, while some goods prices (like used cars) saw a bit of a rebound [35]. These patterns probably carried through to the PCE data (which uses some of the same source data as CPI but weighted differently). In short, inflation in August was broad-based enough to keep the core rate from falling, but not so high as to signal any new accelerating trend beyond what was expected.
Why the PCE Report Matters for the Fed and Markets
This PCE inflation report is a big deal for the Federal Reserve – perhaps the most important data point in the Fed’s toolkit. That’s because PCE (especially core PCE) is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge when setting interest rate policy [36]. The central bank has an explicit goal of 2% inflation (as measured by PCE), and its interest rate moves are aimed at steering inflation toward that target over time. Every monthly PCE update thus informs the Fed’s assessment: Are we getting closer to 2% or are we veering off track?
In the current case, the August data sends a somewhat mixed message. On one hand, inflation remains above target, confirming that the Fed cannot declare “mission accomplished” on price stability yet. The annual core PCE rate has been stuck at ~2.9% for three months now, indicating a plateau rather than continued improvement. As economists often warn, getting inflation down from ~3% to 2% can be challenging – there’s a risk of a sticky “last mile.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell has pointed to persistent core services inflation and wage growth as signs that underlying inflation pressures could take a while to fully unwind. August’s numbers won’t ease those concerns.
On the other hand, the report was exactly in line with forecasts, which means it did not shock markets or policymakers with any upside surprise. As one analyst noted, “PCE was basically in line with expectations… the actual release has become a bit less of an event” now that other indicators (like CPI and producer prices) telegraph it [37]. In other words, this PCE reading didn’t fundamentally alter the outlook. Inflation is elevated but inching down only gradually, a reality the Fed has already baked into its plans.
Fed officials’ recent actions and comments provide further context. Just last week (in mid-September 2025), the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 0.25% – the first rate cut since late 2024 – citing concerns about a softening employment picture and tightening financial conditions [38]. This move brought the benchmark Fed funds rate down slightly from its peak. Importantly, the Fed also signaled that more rate cuts could be on the table in coming meetings if economic data warrants. This shift to an easing bias came after an aggressive hiking cycle in 2022–2023 (when the Fed raised rates 11 times to combat the worst inflation flare-up in decades) [39]. Now, with inflation lower than before and recession risks rising, the Fed has begun carefully nudging rates down.
Yet the Fed’s willingness to cut rates further is explicitly data-dependent – and inflation data like today’s PCE report are crucial to that calculus. Policymakers don’t want to reignite inflation by easing too fast. That’s why Fed speakers in recent days have struck a cautious tone. For example, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said this week he’s “uneasy” about cutting rates too quickly because inflation could remain a threat [40]. Another official, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, commented that inflation is still too high and that interest rate policy right now is only “slightly restrictive,” suggesting there’s not a lot of room to stimulate without risking higher prices [41]. These remarks imply the Fed will closely scrutinize each incoming inflation report. If inflation were to flare up unexpectedly, the Fed could even hit pause on rate cuts.
From that perspective, August’s mild uptick in PCE inflation likely reinforces a go-slow approach. The fact that core inflation didn’t budge (staying at 2.9%) means there wasn’t additional progress toward 2% last month – but neither was there a worrying surge. It’s a status quo update, which for the Fed means stay the course: continue telegraphing possible gradual rate reductions, but with vigilance. As Richard Flax of Moneyfarm summarized, with inflation above target, the data “argues against significant cuts” in the immediate future [42]. In other words, the Fed may still cut again in upcoming meetings, but they’re unlikely to slash rates aggressively or all at once. Officials will want to see clearer evidence that inflation is decisively trending down and that the economy truly needs more stimulus before accelerating the easing cycle.
A Balancing Act: Strong Economy vs. Sticky Inflation
One reason the Fed is treading carefully is that the broader U.S. economy has shown surprising strength, even as inflation simmers. In fact, recent reports paint a picture of an economy that is more resilient than many expected, complicating the Fed’s balancing act.
Consider the slew of data released just ahead of the PCE report:
- The government’s final estimate of Q2 2025 GDP came in at 3.8% growth (annualized), a notable upward revision driven by strong consumer spending and business investment [43] [44]. A nearly 4% growth rate in the spring quarter signals robust economic momentum.
- The labor market – while past its tightest point – is still far from recessionary. New filings for unemployment benefits (jobless claims) dropped to 218,000 in mid-September, the lowest in weeks [45]. Layoff indicators remain historically low, and unemployment (at 4.1%) is only up slightly from its 50-year lows. In fact, Fed officials have noted that despite some cooling, the job market “still remains largely in balance” between supply and demand [46].
- Housing and consumer spending data have also surprised to the upside. Sales of new homes surged 20% in August, according to a report earlier in the week [47], indicating interest rate cuts (and perhaps a rush ahead of potential further mortgage rate drops) spurred activity. Meanwhile, consumers continue to spend at a steady clip: personal spending likely rose ~0.4% in August, and retail sales have been solid. Some of July’s spending jump was driven by big-ticket items like autos (after two sluggish months) [48], and that momentum appears to have carried into August. Incomes are also growing – personal incomes were expected to be up about 0.3% for August [49], helping fuel consumption.
All this points to an economy that, rather than teetering, is humming along in late 2025. For the Fed, this is a double-edged sword. A strong economy reduces the urgency for aggressive rate cuts. When growth is robust and unemployment low, the Fed can afford to be patient and prioritize getting inflation fully back to 2%. Indeed, some analysts interpret the recent data deluge as a sign the Fed might delay or minimize further rate reductions. “The economic data…calls into question how much the Fed may cut rates again and whether the Fed needs to cut again this year,” observed Peter Tuz of Chase Investment Counsel, reflecting on the week’s indicators [50].
At the same time, a resilient economy provides a cushion that could allow the Fed to engineer a “soft landing” – lowering inflation without a recession. Fed Chair Powell has often said he’s aiming for just this: cool price growth while maintaining expansion. The August PCE report, combined with the solid growth data, suggests that scenario is still on the table. Inflation is not so high as to demand more rate hikes (the Fed paused hikes months ago), and growth is not so weak as to necessitate emergency cuts. Instead, we’re in a middle ground that supports a gradual, measured policy path.
However, one wildcard that could upset this balance is the slate of tariffs and political pressures currently in play. President Trump has introduced a raft of new import tariffs – 100% duties on certain pharmaceutical imports, new tariffs on heavy trucks and furniture, among others – effective around October 1 [51] [52]. Such tariffs act like a tax on imported goods, which can push prices higher for consumers and businesses. The Fed has explicitly said it is waiting to see the inflation impact of these trade measures [53]. If the tariffs cause a noticeable bump in prices over the coming months, that could slow the decline of inflation or even temporarily boost core inflation (for example, if drug prices or vehicle prices jump). Fed economists will be parsing the data for any tariff-induced effects.
Additionally, the political climate around the Fed is heated. The President’s public berating of the Fed – calling Chairman Powell “too late” in cutting and claiming the Fed is clueless for worrying about inflation – creates an unusual backdrop [54]. Behind the scenes, the White House even tried to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, presumably to install someone more dovish, though that attempt is tied up in the courts [55]. While the Fed insists it operates independently, such pressures are impossible to ignore completely. They add another reason the Fed might err on the side of modest easing – to avoid appearing oblivious to growth concerns – but also another reason to prove its inflation-fighting credibility by not cutting too much. It’s a delicate spot.
Experts are divided on how these cross-currents will resolve. Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. economist, David Mericle, recently projected that core inflation might rise a bit further in the very short term – potentially peaking around 3.2% by December 2025 due to cumulative tariff effects – before resuming a downward trajectory in 2026 [56]. If that forecast holds, it implies the Fed could see inflation tick up again later this year, which might pause their rate-cut campaign. On the flip side, many on Wall Street believe the Fed has already done enough on inflation and should prioritize growth. “Markets want more concrete evidence that inflation is cooling,” noted Daniela Hathorn, a senior analyst at Capital.com, warning that if data were to surprise higher, “stocks could take a hit.” [57] In other words, investors are craving reassurance that the inflation trend is definitively downward so that the Fed can safely ease off monetary brakes. Until they get that reassurance, market sentiment may remain jittery and reactive to each new inflation print.
Markets Shrug Off Inflation Uptick – For Now
When the PCE numbers hit the wires on Friday morning, the immediate market reaction was relatively calm – even positive. Stock market futures, which had been slightly green in pre-market trading, held their gains after the 8:30 a.m. ET data release [58]. Going into the open, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up about 0.2%, S&P 500 futures up ~0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures roughly flat [59]. This mild optimism suggested that investors interpreted the inflation report as “no bad news”, since it met expectations and showed no acceleration in core inflation.
Indeed, heading into Friday, Wall Street had been on edge. The stock market had fallen for three straight days (Tuesday through Thursday of that week), with the S&P 500 down about 1.3% from record highs [60]. Much of that pullback was attributed to rising Treasury yields and profit-taking in tech stocks, but underlying it was a concern that strong economic data might make the Fed less generous with rate cuts. By Thursday, rate-cut odds for October had dipped slightly – CME FedWatch data showed about an 83–85% chance of a cut, down from over 90% earlier [61] [62]. High-profile Fed officials preaching caution on inflation also tempered the market’s dovish hopes.
Given that backdrop, a benign PCE report was almost a relief rally catalyst. With inflation not coming in any hotter than expected, bond markets were steady – the 10-year Treasury yield hovered around ~4.17% on Friday, little changed [63] – and stock traders could refocus on the notion that rate cuts are still likely on the way. As of late Thursday, markets were pricing in roughly one quarter-point cut at the October 29-30 Fed meeting, and potentially another by year-end [64]. Friday’s data didn’t alter that arithmetic.
It’s worth noting that the muted reaction also reflects how well telegraphed the PCE results were. Investors had ample clues: the CPI report two weeks earlier, which showed a similar slight uptick; oil price movements; and consensus forecasts. “Markets don’t expect an unruly showing from the incoming PCE figures, suggesting that inflation remains in check,” Reuters noted ahead of the release [65]. That proved accurate. The relatively tame data meant no big repricing was necessary in stocks or bonds.
One area to watch, however, is how markets respond over a slightly longer horizon. Equities are still on track to finish the week down, breaking a string of weekly gains [66]. The combination of higher long-term interest rates (the 10-year yield has been drifting upward, near levels last seen in 2024) and questions about tech stock valuations has introduced some volatility. If investors start to believe the Fed might hold rates higher for longer because inflation isn’t falling fast enough, that could lead to renewed pressure on rate-sensitive sectors. So far, though, the dominant expectation is that inflation will slowly grind down and the Fed will gently lower rates – a “Goldilocks” scenario for markets. As analyst Chris Zaccarelli put it, inflation rising “ever so slightly, but right in line” with forecasts should actually “increase the probability of a Fed rate cut” in the coming meetings [67]. In other words, a little inflation heat, as long as it’s controlled, keeps the Fed on track to ease – which markets like.
Another market to mention is the currency market: The U.S. dollar has been relatively strong in recent months, partly due to higher U.S. yields. A benign U.S. inflation outlook could cap further dollar gains if it means the Fed won’t have to keep rates as high. After the PCE data, the dollar index remained up modestly (around 98) [68], reflecting the view that the Fed’s stance (while softening) is still tighter than many other central banks’.
In summary, the August PCE report landed as “no cause for alarm” – for the Fed and for investors alike [69]. Inflation is creeping up, but not in a way that suggests a new trend or a policy emergency. The Federal Reserve can take this data in stride as it navigates the path of gradual rate cuts, and markets can breathe a tentative sigh of relief that price growth isn’t veering off course.
Outlook: Cautious Optimism as Inflation Slowly Eases
Looking ahead, the trajectory of inflation will remain a critical swing factor for both economic policy and financial markets. The consensus among economists is that inflation will continue to moderate into 2026, albeit fitfully. The combination of fading supply chain pressures, the lagged impact of past Fed rate hikes, and slowing demand should gradually pull inflation down. However, there are potential bumps on the road:
- Energy prices: Oil has been volatile, and any renewed surge in gasoline or heating oil this fall could push up headline inflation temporarily (as we saw to a small extent in August). Fortunately, underlying trends (like more stable food prices and cooling rents) could offset this.
- Tariff-induced price hikes: As noted, new tariffs could cause one-off increases in certain categories (pharmaceuticals, vehicles, etc.). If these show up in the data, the Fed may look through them as “transitory” effects – unless they start influencing inflation expectations.
- Labor market and wages: Wage growth has slowed from its brisk pace in 2022, but remains above pre-pandemic norms. If the job market tightens again or wage gains reaccelerate, that could sustain higher services inflation (since labor costs are a big part of services prices). The Fed will be watching wage measures closely.
- Global factors: Inflation is not just a U.S. phenomenon. Notably, Eurozone inflation has also been hovering around target – for instance, one report showed euro-zone consumer prices up ~2.1% in August [70]. Central banks globally are trying to manage a similar disinflation process. A shock abroad (say, an escalation in geopolitical tensions or supply disruptions) could spill over into prices here. On the flip side, if global growth slows, it could ease commodity prices and help U.S. inflation fall faster.
For now, the general sentiment is one of cautious optimism. “Inflation is increasing ever so slightly, but right in line with forecasts,” as Northlight Asset Management’s Chris Zaccarelli noted, and as long as that holds true, the Fed is “almost guaranteed” to follow through with moderate rate cuts in the coming months [71]. Financial conditions have tightened somewhat (with higher long-term rates), which itself will help constrain inflation.
Consumers and businesses may take some comfort that the era of rapid price spikes appears to be over. Annual inflation of ~2.7% means prices are climbing, but at a much more manageable pace than the 5%, 7%, even 9% rates seen at various points in 2021-2022. This “slow burn” inflation is still above ideal – it subtly erodes purchasing power – yet it’s a far cry from the acute cost-of-living crisis of a couple years ago. If trend inflation can be nudged a bit lower into the low-2% range, Americans might finally feel like price stability is within sight.
Bottom line: August’s PCE report reinforces that inflation is on a gentle downward glide, not a steep plunge, keeping the Fed on a knife’s edge. The Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting credibility is intact (prices aren’t running away), but so is its vigilance (prices aren’t yet at target). The Fed’s likely course is to continue its “dovish pivot” gradually – providing some monetary relief to the economy while signaling that it stands ready to pause or reverse course if inflation doesn’t cooperate. Investors, for their part, are betting that the inflation dragon has been tamed enough for the Fed to keep easing into 2026, albeit carefully. As always, each new data point will be scrutinized, but for now, neither the Fed nor the markets are hitting the panic button on this slow simmer of inflation.
Sources: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index data from U.S. Commerce Department (Aug 2025) [72] [73]; Federal Reserve commentary and rate outlook [74] [75] [76]; MarketWatch/Dow Jones Newswires analysis of PCE report [77]; BLS Consumer Price Index (August 2025) [78]; Associated Press coverage of Fed and political context [79] [80]; Investopedia and Reuters insights on economic data and market reaction [81] [82] [83].
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