- Mixed Index Moves: On Monday (Sept 29), most Asian benchmarks rose. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped about 1% to ~26,518, and South Korea’s KOSPI gained ~1.3% to ~3,430 abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com. China’s CSI 300 index added ~0.7% (to ~4,551), while the Shanghai Composite was roughly flat around 3,832 and the Shenzhen Component was up ~0.3% reuters.com news.rthk.hk. By contrast, Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped about 0.8% (to ~44,894) despite finishing the month ~5% higher reuters.com abcnews.go.com. India’s markets opened higher: the Nifty 50 rose ~0.43% to ~24,761 and the Sensex was up ~0.39% to ~80,745 reuters.com.
- Sector Movers: Energy and materials stocks led gains. In India, energy indices jumped ~1.2–1.5% on optimism about stable fuel prices, lifting majors like BPCL and HPCL reuters.com. Oil India surged ~2.2% on news of a natural gas discovery offshore reuters.com. In contrast, consumer staples lagged: Hindustan Unilever fell ~1.5% after downgrading its quarterly outlook reuters.com. Technology and auto shares were mixed – Japan’s weaker yen (USD/JPY ~148.9 reuters.com) capped exporters, while South Korean chipmakers likely benefited from record export estimates (semiconductor shipments were up 27% in early Sept reuters.com).
- Economic Data & Policy: China’s economy remains sluggish. Analysts forecast September factory PMI around 49.6 (below 50) – the sixth month of contraction reuters.com. Investors are also awaiting China’s Golden Week holidays. In South Korea, Reuters polls project September exports up +7.2% YoY, the fastest growth in 13 months, led by tech and calendar effects reuters.com reuters.com. In India, focus is on the Reserve Bank of India meeting (Sept 30). A Reuters survey shows ~75% of economists expect a pause, though a few banks see scope for a 25bp cut given slowing growth reuters.com reuters.com.
- Global Factors: U.S. politics and data loomed large. Traders grew nervous over a possible U.S. government shutdown starting Oct 1, which would delay key data (like the Sep payrolls report) and coincide with new Trump tariffs on heavy trucks and drugs reuters.com. Still, robust U.S. inflation data (Aug PCE +0.3% MoM) came in as expected, bolstering expectations for Fed rate cuts. Markets now put ~90% odds on an October cut reuters.com. Morgan Stanley notes the PCE print “keeps rate cut expectations intact” reuters.com. The dollar eased (index ~97.9) and was at ~¥148.9 by Monday afternoon reuters.com.
- Analyst Commentary: Strategists downplayed the shutdown risk: Bank of America estimates a brief shutdown would shave only ~0.1% off GDP per week and have minimal market impact reuters.com. Still, many investors remain wary. Abhishek Goenka (CIO of Billionz) notes that “the absence of negative developments is being perceived constructively, but sentiment remains restrained by steep U.S. tariffs and the H-1B visa fee hike” reuters.com. He expects India’s Nifty to trade in a ~24,500–25,000 range with a mildly weakening bias in the near term reuters.com.
- Outlook: Caution is advised as multiple events converge. Asia’s central bank calendar is busy: India’s RBI meets Wed and is widely expected to hold rates (though a small cut can’t be ruled out reuters.com reuters.com). The Bank of Japan recently showed unexpected hawkish dissent, raising the odds of an October rate hike reuters.com (a dynamic that has kept the yen firm). Regionally, investors will watch U.S. Treasury yields, Fed communication, and geopolitics (tariffs, China-U.S. talks). For now, Asian stocks may see further momentum from the improving tech cycle and supportive flows, but will likely tread carefully until U.S. funding and economic uncertainties clarify.
Sources: Latest market moves and data from Reuters and news outlets reuters.com abcnews.go.com reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com. Analyst comments and forecasts from Reuters interviews reuters.com reuters.com. (All figures as of market close Sept 29, 2025.)
