Merck (MRK) Stock Could Skyrocket: Key Drug Approvals & Analyst Targets Unveiled

Current Stock: ~$86 on Oct 10, 2025; down ~11.1% YTD ^[1]. 52-week range $73.31–$111.58 ^[2].
Market Data: Market cap ≈$215B ^[3]; P/E ~13× (trailing) ^[4]; β≈0.37 (low volatility) ^[5].
Business: A premier research-based biopharma (known as MSD outside NA) with 2024 sales of $64.2B ^[6](Pharma, Vaccines, Animal Health) and $17.9B spent on R&D ^[7]. Flagship assets include KEYTRUDA (cancer immunotherapy), GARDASIL (HPV vaccine), diabetes (Januvia/Janumet) and animal-health products.
Dividend: $0.81/Q (annual $3.24), ~3.8% yield ^[8]. Merck has raised dividends for 55 straight years (one of the longest streaks) ^[9].
Recent Catalysts: FDA approved a subcutaneous Keytruda injection (Keytruda QLEX) in Sept 2025 ^[10]. Merck closed its $10B acquisition of Verona Pharma (OHTUVAYRE COPD drug) in early Oct 2025 ^[11]. Positive late-stage data have emerged (e.g. RSV vaccine Capvaxive, Phase III PAH drug Winrevair) ^[12] ^[13].
Pipeline: Aggressive oncology R&D – Keytruda still drives >50% of pharma sales ^[14]. New trials include personalized mRNA cancer vaccines (with Moderna) ^[15] and CAR-Ts. At ESMO 2025, Merck reported promising Phase 3 KEYNOTE-B96 (ovarian) and KEYNOTE-905 (bladder) results ^[16]. It also plans regulatory filings (e.g. label expansion for WINREVAIR, PDUFA Oct 25, 2025 ^[17]).
Analyst View: Consensus rating is Hold; 12‑month average price target ≈$104 ^[18] (implying ~21% upside). Many analysts trimmed targets (e.g. Berenberg cut to $90 ^[19]). One strong buy, 5 buy, 14 hold, 1 sell ratings on record ^[20].
Peers: J&J is outperforming (JNJ +35% YTD ^[21]) vs Pfizer roughly flat (-1.6% ^[22]) and BMS weak (-18.4% ^[23]). Over 5 years MRK ~+32% total return vs +45% JNJ and +21% PFE ^[24]. Merck’s 3.8% yield is higher than JNJ’s (~2.7%) but below Pfizer’s (~6%).

Metric	Merck (MRK)
Last Price (10/10/25)	$86.02 ^[25]
Market Cap	$215B ^[26]
P/E (TTM)	~13× ^[27]
Yield	3.8% ^[28]
52-Week Range	$73.31 – $111.58 ^[29]
YTD Total Return	-11.07% ^[30]
Q2 2025 Sales	$15.8B ^[31]
2024 Sales	$64.2B ^[32]
2024 R&D Spend	$17.9B ^[33]
Analyst PT (avg)	$104 (12-mo) ^[34]
Consensus Rating	Hold ^[35]

Company Overview

Merck & Co. (MRK, called MSD outside North America) is a global healthcare company (75,000 employees ^[36]) organized in Pharmaceuticals, Vaccines and Animal Health. It focuses on oncology/immunology, infectious disease (including vaccines), cardio-metabolic, and hospital specialty medicines ^[37]. Its blockbuster product KEYTRUDA® (pembrolizumab) – a PD-1 checkpoint inhibitor – has driven Merck’s growth, accounting for >50% of pharma sales in H1 2025 ^[38]. Other pillars include GARDASIL® (HPV vaccine) and type-2 diabetes drugs (Januvia/Janumet). Merck invests heavily in R&D ($17.9B in 2024 ^[39]), with hundreds of projects in clinical development. In mid-2025 the company announced a transformation plan to reallocate resources toward “new growth drivers” – including acquisitions and upcoming product launches – to drive long-term innovation ^[40].

Recent News (Oct 2025)

In the days up to Oct 11, 2025, Merck made several headlines. On Oct 7, 2025, Merck completed its $10 billion acquisition of Verona Pharma, adding OHTUVAYRE® (sotatercept inhalation) for COPD to its cardiopulmonary portfolio ^[41]. “The addition of Ohtuvayre is another example of our BD strategy, where compelling science and value align,” said CEO Robert M. Davis ^[42]. In late September, the FDA approved Keytruda QLEX™, a subcutaneous (injectable) formulation of Keytruda ^[43] (and confirmed by Reuters ^[44]). This new version can be given in 1–2 minutes (vs ~30 min IV) ^[45] and carries its own patent, helping defend Keytruda’s franchise through expected 2028 LOE. Earlier, on Sept 19 FDA approval made Keytruda QLEX available for almost all adult solid tumors treated by IV Keytruda ^[46].

At the ESMO 2025 Congress (Oct 9–13, 2025), Merck highlighted new oncology data. It reported positive Phase 3 KEYNOTE-B96 (pembrolizumab + paclitaxel in ovarian cancer) and KEYNOTE-905 (bladder cancer) results ^[47], reinforcing Keytruda’s expanding use. Merck also announced launching the RSV vaccine CAPVAXIVE™ and presented positive Phase 3 data for its cholesterol inhibitor enalcitide ^[48]. These pipeline milestones contributed to Merck’s outlook that H2 2025 will see renewed growth led by new products ^[49].

On the regulatory front, Merck’s inhaled heart drug WINREVAIR™ (sotatercept for pulmonary arterial hypertension) received FDA Priority Review in early July 2025, after the ZENITH trial showed a 76% reduction in morbidity/mortality events ^[50]. FDA action is due by Oct 25, 2025. (Merck also expects to complete Phase 3 trials for Winrevair in other PH categories in 2026.) Several other pipeline assets (e.g. a PARP inhibitor from Kelun-Biotech) are in late trials. Overall, Merck is leveraging deals (e.g. Moderna, Daiichi Sankyo) and M&A to diversify beyond Keytruda.

Stock Performance & Analyst Outlook

Merck’s shares are trading below their mid-2024 highs. As of Oct 10, 2025, MRK is near $86 ^[51]. The 2025 YTD decline (~-11%) reflects concerns about modest revenue growth and Keytruda’s future, despite broader market strength ^[52]. In the past week MRK was slightly down (~-3.6% 7-day total return ^[53]), after rising about 3.3% in the prior month ^[54]. Technical levels: the 50-day MA (~$88.20) sits above the current price (bearish signal), while the 200-day MA (~$83.76) is below ^[55]. Pivot analysis shows a key resistance around $86.50 ^[56]. According to Investing.com, the 14-day RSI is ~33 (near oversold) ^[57] and MACD is negative, suggesting limited upward momentum for now.

On the street, analyst sentiment is mixed-to-cautious. MarketBeat notes a consensus “Hold” rating (21 analysts) for MRK ^[58], with an average 12‑month price target of $104.31 ^[59] (roughly +21%). Out of 21 analysts: 1 sell, 15 holds/buys the rest ^[60]. Recent moves include Morgan Stanley setting an “equal weight” rating and $98 target, and Berenberg downgrading MRK from Buy to Hold (target cut to $90) in Sept 2025 ^[61]. Many sell-side forecasts cluster in the $90–$110 range. Zacks notes that Merck’s P/E (~9× forward ^[62]) is well below the industry (~16×), implying potential undervaluation.

Financial Analysis

Merck’s recent results have been solid but unspectacular. Q2 2025 (ended June 30) revenue was $15.8B, down 2% year-on-year (flat to +7% excluding China Gardasil sales) ^[63]. Non-GAAP EPS was $2.13 (beating consensus $2.03) ^[64]. Profitability remains high: gross margin ~82.2% ^[65] and net margin ~25.8% ^[66]. Return on equity is very strong (~41%) ^[67]. For 2025 management reiterated full-year guidance of $64.3–65.3B in sales (≈1–2% growth) ^[68] ^[69]. Analysts model FY2025 EPS around $9.0 (Zacks: $8.93) ^[70].

Merck’s balance sheet is healthy. As of Q2, debt/equity was ~0.69 ^[71]. The Altman Z‑score is high (~5.0 ^[72]), indicating low bankruptcy risk. Cash flow is robust: Q2 operating cash was positive, though Merck does significant capex/R&D. Indeed, R&D investment remains a priority: ~$17–18B annually (2024: $17.9B ^[73]) to fuel future growth. In Q2 Merck also announced a $3B “portfolio optimization” program (streamlining mature products) to reinvest in R&D and new launches ^[74].

Expert Commentary: Analysts and media emphasize Keytruda. A Nasdaq/Zacks report notes Keytruda lifted 7% in H1 2025 and is expected to keep driving H2 growth, especially in earlier-stage lung cancer indications ^[75]. However, they caution Merck’s dependence on Keytruda means competitive pressure (broad PD-1 field) and eventual biosimilars loom ^[76]. CEO Davis remains optimistic, citing “over 20 new and potential future growth drivers” in Merck’s pipeline ^[77]. CFO Caroline Litchfield echoed confidence: “We are confident in our ability to drive growth in our business this year” ^[78]. These comments reflect management’s view that recent approvals (e.g. Keytruda QLEX) and new products (RSV, PAH, cardio) will offset any slowdown.

Drug Pipeline & Regulatory Highlights

Merck’s late-stage pipeline is anchored by oncology and immunology. Key drugs under review or launch include:

KEYTRUDA (pembrolizumab) – already approved for ~20 cancers. FDA approval of subcutaneous Keytruda QLEX in Sept 2025 ^[79] makes administration faster. Phase 3 trials (KEYNOTE) continue in bladder, ovarian and other cancers ^[80]. Keytruda now has patent protection via QLEX, extending exclusivity beyond the original 2028 expiry ^[81].
Winrevair™ (sotatercept) – for pulmonary hypertension. Approved in PAH (2024), Merck has priority-review for an expanded indication after the ZENITH trial showed 76% reduction in major events ^[82]. FDA decision expected Oct 25, 2025. If approved, Winrevair could quickly scale (currently approved in >45 countries).
Capvaxive™ (RSV vaccine) – launched in 2024 for older adults. Merck began shipments in mid-2025 and sales are ramping (reported $372M in Q2) ^[83].
Cardio/Metabolic – No major pipeline meds beyond existing Januvia/Jardiance (co-promoted with Lilly). However, the Verona deal adds sotatercept (Ohtuvayre™) for COPD, expected to launch ~2028.
Other Oncology – Merck is co-developing a personalized cancer vaccine mRNA-4157 (V940) with Moderna; it moved into multiple Phase 3 trials in 2025 ^[84]. It also has partnerships on antibody-drug conjugates (e.g. R-DXd with Daiichi, sacituzumab with Kelun-Biotech). Positive Phase 3 data reported for enalcitide (Lilly-partnered cholesterol therapy) ^[85] and belzutifan (for kidney cancer) last year. Merck’s pipeline has “~20 new growth drivers” as per management ^[86].

Regulatory news this fall includes GARDASIL expansions (more indications expected by year-end) and potential EMA submissions for Keytruda combos. CEO Davis noted the new vaccines and therapies “augment our portfolio and pipeline” ^[87]. If Winrevair’s label expands or the personalized vaccines succeed, Merck’s growth outlook could improve significantly.

Technical Analysis

Technically, MRK shows mixed signals. The stock is trading just below near-term resistance (~$86.50 pivot ^[88]). According to Investing.com, MRK’s 14-day RSI is around 33 (below the neutral 50 line, near oversold), suggesting limited upside in the short term ^[89]. The MACD indicator is negative ^[90]. Short-term MAs (5-day, 50-day) are above price ($86.69 and $88.20, respectively ^[91]), which is bearish. The longer-term 200-day MA (~$83.76) is below price ^[92], which is modestly bullish. Overall, some analysts see a “strong buy” from daily indicator scans ^[93], but note mixed buy/sell signals (4 of 12 MAs are buy, 8 sell ^[94]). Key support is around $85–$86 (pivot S1/S2 levels ^[95]); a firm break above $87–$88 could target resistance near $90.

Dividend & Payout

Merck’s payout policy remains attractive for income investors. The quarterly dividend of $0.81 (3.8% yield ^[96]) was declared on Sept 15, 2025 (paid Oct 7). The company maintains a moderate payout ratio (~50%) ^[97], suggesting capacity for modest future raises. Merck’s long record (55 years of increases ^[98]) highlights its commitment. In comparison, J&J yields ~2.7%, Pfizer ~6%, and BMS ~3–4%. Investors note Merck’s reliable dividends even as growth moderates.

Outlook and Forecast

Merck’s outlook hinges on several factors. Analysts expect Keytruda to fuel mid-term growth – one report forecasts Keytruda sales ~$8.5B in Q3 ^[99], with pipeline launches (RSV, Winrevair) adding to revenue. Consensus 2025 EPS estimates are around $8.90–9.00 ^[100]. The consensus price target (~$104) suggests analysts see ~20% upside from current levels ^[101], indicating belief Merck is undervalued. However, the “Hold” consensus reflects caution: only modest EPS growth (consensus 2026 ~$9.6 ^[102]) and looming generic/competitive threats limit bullishness.

Several experts underscore both the opportunities and risks. Zacks cautions that “heavy dependence” on Keytruda is a concern, as competition from rival PD-(L)1 drugs (Opdivo, Tecentriq, Imfinzi) intensifies ^[103]. On the upside, valuation metrics are favorable (P/E well below peer average ^[104]). Technical analysis is mixed (see above). Overall, Wall Street sentiment is neutral-to-slightly-bearish near-term, but many view MRK as a potential value play. For example, one investment analysis firm lists Merck among undervalued healthcare stocks. If Merck meets its guidance and new approvals “pan out,” analysts note the stock could re-rate higher. As Zacks summarizes, Merck “appears attractive relative to the industry” on valuation ^[105].

Comparison to Peers

Compared to its blue-chip pharma peers, Merck’s performance has lagged in 2025. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) boasts ~+35% YTD ^[106], buoyed by diversified businesses (consumer products, MedTech) and its own pharma brands (Stelara, COVID vaccines). Pfizer (PFE) is roughly flat (-1.6% YTD ^[107]) after the COVID-vaccine boom faded, though it pays a high ~6% yield. Bristol-Myers (BMY) is down heavily (~-18.4% YTD ^[108]) partly due to slower cancer-drug growth (its Opdivo franchise trails Keytruda). Over a 5-year horizon, Merck’s total return (~+32%) is lower than JNJ’s (~+45%) but above Pfizer’s (~+21%) ^[109].

Valuation metrics reflect this gap: Merck (~13× earnings) trades at a discount to JNJ (mid-teens P/E) and above Pfizer (low teens). Dividend yields show the opposite gap. Pipeline-wise, Merck and BMS are direct competitors in oncology, but Keytruda’s larger market share gives Merck an edge. J&J and Pfizer have broader portfolios (vaccines, cardiology, etc.) which has driven stronger stock gains. Investors tracking Merck often do so in the context of J&J, Pfizer and BMS, and note that Merck’s relatively low valuation and strong dividend could make it attractive if pipeline catalysts succeed. As one trend report notes, Merck’s vaccine/oncology pipeline (including collaborations with Moderna) is a distinct strategic asset ^[110], though execution will be key.

Sources: Official reports (Merck releases ^[111] ^[112]), earnings transcripts ^[113], FDA and JAMA announcements ^[114], Reuters coverage ^[115], Zacks/Nasdaq analysis ^[116] ^[117], analyst consensus data ^[118] ^[119], technical analysis sites ^[120] ^[121], and industry news including TS2.Tech ^[122]. All figures are as of Oct 10–11, 2025 unless noted.