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MP Materials Stock Soars on Pentagon and Apple Breakthroughs – 400% YTD Rally Explained
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MP Materials Stock Soars on Pentagon and Apple Breakthroughs – 400% YTD Rally Explained

by
13 October 2025
  • MP Materials (NYSE: MP) is the only large-scale U.S. rare-earth miner, supplying NdPr oxides and magnets essential for EVs, wind turbines, defense, etc. [1] [2]. It owns the Mountain Pass mine (CA) and a Texas magnet plant, making it “America’s only fully integrated rare earth producer” [3] [4].
  • Recent Surge: Shares have exploded roughly 360–400% year-to-date (2025), hitting new highs. On Oct 10, 2025 MP closed around $78.34 (intraday high $84.92) [5] [6]. Over the past week (early Oct), the stock climbed from the low $70s to ~$78 [7] [8], fueled by policy news.
  • Major Deals: In July 2025, the U.S. Defense Dept invested $400M for a ~15% stake (plus $150M loan) in MP [9] [10]. That deal guarantees a 10-year price floor ($110/kg) on NdPr oxide – roughly double Chinese market prices [11] [12], and locks in magnet offtake. In the same month, MP inked a $500M supply pact with Apple to provide US-made NdFeB magnets (Texas plant) [13] [14]. These “cornerstone” partnerships (DoD and Apple) vastly strengthen MP’s strategic position [15] [16].
  • Q2’25 Results: MP reported $57.4M revenue (+84% YoY) for Q2 2025, driven by record NdPr output [17]. Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed (–$12.5M vs –$27.1M a year prior) [18], and adjusted EPS –$0.13 beat estimates [19] [20]. CEO James Litinsky called the DoD/Apple deals “transformational” for long-term growth [21]. (The company is still unprofitable on GAAP basis – Q2 net loss ~$30.9M – but burning cash on expansion with ample liquidity.)
  • Analyst Views: Wall Street is generally bullish. Analysts’ consensus is a “Moderate Buy” with ~$74 average 12-month target [22] [23]. (Price targets range $68–90 [24].) Breakdown: 1 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 4 Hold, 1 Sell [25]. Bank of America’s Lawson Winder – after visiting a rare-earth conference – called MP the “unmatched” play on NdFeB magnets, noting its U.S. chain and DoD deal (price floor & offtake) give it unique leverage [26] [27]. TECHnalysis analyst Bob O’Donnell said the Apple pact “makes complete sense” for Apple’s magnet needs [28].
  • Macro/Geopolitics: Global rare earths are under a geopolitical lens. China controls ~70% of mined REEs and >90% of processing capacity [29] [30]. In Oct 2025 Beijing imposed new export curbs on several REEs (e.g. for defense and chip uses) [31], rattling global supply chains. This bolsters MP’s role as the only major North American source [32] [33]. U.S.-China tensions and an EV/clean-energy boom (EVs tripling magnet use by 2035) [34] mean rare-earth demand is rising. In this context, U.S. policy (Department of Defense and CHIPS Act funding) is aggressively supporting MP to reduce China dependence [35] [36].
  • Competition: MP’s main ex-China peer is Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC). Lynas, the largest non-Chinese RE producer, has posted record output and prices [37]. Its CEO Amanda Lacaze says MP’s U.S. backing confirms a push to break China’s dominance [38]. Analysts stress MP and Lynas are complementary: both must thrive to build a Western supply chain [39]. (Lynas is expanding heavy-REE separation in Australia/Malaysia; MP is unique in having domestic U.S. magnet manufacturing.)
  • Outlook & Ratings: Institutional investors hold a majority of MP (est. 50–75% of float) and target modest upside. Consensus 12-month price targets cluster in the high-$60s to low-$80s [40] [41]. The stock’s momentum suggests continued volatility: high beta (~2.3) means big swings on news [42] [43]. Recent volume surges (e.g. Oct 10: 50M+ shares) indicate heavy interest [44]. Key catalysts going forward include Q3 results (due Nov 2025), further policy moves (e.g. CHIPS Act allocations), and global supply tensions.

Sources: Company filings and press releases [45] [46]; Reuters and Mining.com on DoD/Apple deals [47] [48]; TS2.tech analysis [49] [50]; Benzinga (BofA analyst) [51] [52]; MarketBeat and TradingView market data [53] [54]; CSIS and other reports on geopolitics [55] [56]; Lynas Reuters report [57] [58].

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References

1. ts2.tech, 2. investors.mpmaterials.com, 3. investors.mpmaterials.com, 4. ts2.tech, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.tradingview.com, 7. ts2.tech, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. ts2.tech, 10. www.csis.org, 11. www.csis.org, 12. ts2.tech, 13. ts2.tech, 14. ts2.tech, 15. investors.mpmaterials.com, 16. ts2.tech, 17. investors.mpmaterials.com, 18. investors.mpmaterials.com, 19. investors.mpmaterials.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. investors.mpmaterials.com, 22. ts2.tech, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.tradingview.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.benzinga.com, 27. www.benzinga.com, 28. ts2.tech, 29. www.csis.org, 30. ts2.tech, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.csis.org, 33. ts2.tech, 34. www.benzinga.com, 35. www.csis.org, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. rareearthexchanges.com, 40. www.marketbeat.com, 41. www.tradingview.com, 42. www.marketbeat.com, 43. www.tradingview.com, 44. www.marketbeat.com, 45. investors.mpmaterials.com, 46. investors.mpmaterials.com, 47. www.csis.org, 48. www.mining.com, 49. ts2.tech, 50. ts2.tech, 51. www.benzinga.com, 52. www.benzinga.com, 53. www.marketbeat.com, 54. www.tradingview.com, 55. www.csis.org, 56. www.reuters.com, 57. www.reuters.com, 58. rareearthexchanges.com

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Mateusz Kaczmarek Latest posts

A technology and finance expert writing for TS2.tech. He analyzes developments in satellites, telecommunications, and artificial intelligence, with a focus on their impact on global markets. Author of industry reports and market commentary, often cited in tech and business media. Passionate about innovation and the digital economy.

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