- Q3 Earnings: Ford reported Q3 EPS of $0.45 (well above the $0.35 consensus) on revenue of $47.19 billion [1]. However, it cut full-year 2025 EBIT guidance to $6.0–$6.5 billion (from $6.5–$7.5 billion) due to a major supplier fire [2].
- Stock Price: Ford (NYSE: F) closed at $12.34 on Oct. 23, 2025 [3]. Shares jumped ~4.2% in after-hours trading on Oct. 23 after the earnings surprise [4]. Year-to-date Ford is still up roughly 20–25% despite October volatility [5]. The stock yields about 5–6% on its $0.15 quarterly dividend [6].
- Tariffs & Trade: President Trump announced new 25% tariffs on imported medium/heavy trucks (effective Nov. 1), boosting U.S. automakers. Ford and GM executives privately thanked him, and GM shares spiked 14%, lifting Ford ~5% on Oct. 21 [7] [8]. Canada–U.S. trade talks continue, but Ford stands to gain from “Buy American” incentives as 80% of its U.S. cars are domestic [9] [10].
- EV Market: The $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit expired Sept. 30. Ford CEO Jim Farley warned this could slash U.S. EV sales – Farley expects EV share may drop from ~10% to ~5% of monthly sales [11]. This comes as Ford’s EV unit (“Model e”) lost roughly $1.3 billion in Q2 2025 and U.S. EV sales fell 31% YoY [12]. Ford is scaling back EV spending, delaying some models and cutting costs (e.g. 1,000 job cuts in Europe) to protect margins [13].
- Traditional Trucks Hold Strong: Gasoline pickups and SUVs remain Ford’s cash cows. Q3 U.S. vehicle sales jumped 8.2% to 545,000 units, driven by F-150s and Broncos [14]. These high-margin models have enabled robust cash flow (and support Ford’s high dividend) [15]. In fact, many analysts note Ford is “effectively funding the EV transition” with its combustion-engine business [16].
- Competitor Snapshot: General Motors reported flat Q3 revenue (beating forecasts by ~7.9%) and raised its profit outlook, sending GM shares up ~15% [17] [18]. GM’s strong results buoyed Ford’s stock. By contrast, Tesla posted record Q3 revenue from EV sales but saw profit miss estimates, highlighting cost pressures in EVs [19]. EV-only makers like Rivian are cutting production after tax credits ended (Rivian’s stock fell after layoffs) [20].
Ford’s Recent News and Performance
In the days leading up to Oct. 23, Ford’s news cycle was dominated by mixed developments. A mid-September fire at a Novelis aluminum plant (a key F-150 supplier) is expected to shave $0.5–$1 billion off Ford’s 2025 profit [21]. When this hit became public, Ford’s stock plunged ~6–7% on Oct. 7, briefly dipping from the high-$12s into the high-$11s [22]. However, value investors quickly stepped in, and by mid-October the shares had recovered to around $11.90 [23]. By Oct. 23 the stock was “essentially flat” versus a week prior, holding in the mid-$11s (~$12) [24]. (For comparison, Ford is still about 20–25% above its 2024 close [25].)
On Oct. 21, cross-town rival General Motors lifted its annual profit forecast on reduced tariff costs. GM’s stock then surged ~15%, the biggest one-day jump in years [26]. That rally spilled over to Ford: Reuters noted that GM’s results “lifted Ford Motor’s shares by roughly 5%” [27]. Meanwhile, in a post-earnings trading session on Oct. 23, Ford shares jumped further (+4% in after-hours) after the stronger-than-expected Q3 results became public. Overall this week’s swings underscore how sensitive Ford’s stock has been to both operational surprises (fires, recalls, tariffs) and sector news.
Earnings Beat, but Guidance Cut
On Oct. 23 after the market close, Ford reported better-than-expected Q3 results [28]. Adjusted EPS of $0.45 beat the $0.35 consensus [29], and revenue of $47.19 billion slightly topped forecasts. CEO Jim Farley touted strong truck/SUV sales but warned the supplier fire will dent profits. Management now expects 2025 EBIT of about $6.0–6.5 billion (down from $6.5–7.5B) because of the fire’s impact [30]. CFO Sherry House said that absent the fire, Ford’s guidance would have been over $8 billion of EBIT [31]. The firm still projects $2–3B in free cash flow for 2025 under the revised plan [32].
In the earnings call, executives also noted a $1 billion windfall in tariff costs thanks to recent U.S. policy changes (truck tariffs and parts credits) [33]. Ford reaffirmed that it will hire ~1,000 new workers in 2026 to recover ~50,000 lost vehicle volumes from the fire. Analysts pointed out Ford has a strong track record – it has beaten top-line estimates in 8 of the last 9 quarters – so markets focused on the future outlook. Wall Street consensus (Hold) implies a 12-month price target of only ~$11–12, below current levels [34] [35]. Indeed, analysts see 2025 EPS around $1.15–$1.20 (roughly 35% below last year) [36] [37]. Ford is counting on its “Ford+” cost-cutting program ($1B savings expected in 2025) and eventual EV recovery to lift profits toward its goal of ~$2.00 EPS in 2026 [38].
Market Commentary & Analyst Takeaways
Market pundits have mixed views. One TS2.tech analyst notes that Ford’s valuation (~15× earnings) and 5–6% dividend yield look attractive if execution improves [39]. An “optimistic analyst” quoted by TS2 argued that “if Ford can simply get out of its own way – deliver trucks, avoid new quality fiascos, and steadily improve EV economics – the underlying value will shine through” [40]. In other words, Ford’s core strengths (120-year brand, loyal F-Series customers, profitable finance arm) might be undervalued.
On the flip side, skeptics warn the engine noise is not fully sorted. Ford had a record 109 U.S. recalls in 2025 (triple the nearest rival) [41], and quality issues have eaten into margins. Investors are in a “show-me” mode: even CNBC’s Jim Cramer cautioned that if Ford misses further, “the stock could slip below $11.” Overall, analyst consensus remains cautious: according to StockAnalysis, the 13 covering analysts rate Ford a “Hold” with an average price target of about $11.08 [42]. TradingView similarly notes a $11.34 1-year target [43]. In short, the market expects modest downside over the next year unless Ford delivers a string of positive surprises.
Comparisons: GM, Tesla, Rivian, Others
In context, Ford’s peers have also seen turbulence. GM posted flat revenue in Q3 (up 7.9% on a few beats) [44] and cut some EV plans, but its improved 2025 forecast and reduced tariff hit sent GM shares soaring [45]. That broad optimism spilled over into Ford. Tesla continues to dominate U.S. EVs; it reported record Q3 EV sales, but profit fell short amid rising costs [46]. This highlights that even the EV leader is coping with demand swings and margin pressure. Pure-play EV makers are under strain: Rivian last week announced ~600 layoffs after EV tax credits expired, and its stock has languished (up ~1% on the layoff news) [47]. Other traditional automakers like Toyota and Stellantis have also seen EV sales stall.
On policy, Ford benefits more than most from “Buy American” moves: about 80% of its U.S.-sold vehicles are built domestically. Still, components tariffs (imported parts) could ultimately cost Ford roughly $3 billion in 2025 [48], even as new vehicle-level tariffs help balance that. Meanwhile, China’s export curbs on battery materials could tighten global supply chains [49], although Ford’s joint battery plant with CATL in Kentucky should mitigate some risk. Labor issues are a plus: Ford’s labor peace through 2027 (after its 2023 UAW contract) means no strike disruptions, though higher wages are a permanent cost.
Outlook: Short-, Medium-, Long-Term
Short-term: In the weeks following Oct. 23, Ford’s stock will hinge on its Q3 conference call tone. If management holds the line on guidance and shows progress addressing the fire and recalls, the market may stay around the low-$12 level or higher. A sharp profit beat or upbeat commentary could spark a relief rally, given how beaten-down sentiment was. Conversely, any hint of deeper cuts or fresh problems could drag shares back toward $11 or below. For now, analysts suggest the stock will trade roughly in line with broader markets (hold stance).
Medium-term (6–12 months): Most Wall Street forecasts see Ford modestly lower. With an average target ~ $11 [50], the consensus implies roughly flat-to-down performance by next October. It assumes limited near-term catalysts beyond the current business. Ford’s ability to offset headwinds (fire, tariffs, recalls, EV losses) with cost cuts and continued strong truck sales will be key. If inflation or rates ease, auto demand could improve and lift Ford. But lingering concerns (especially about EV execution) temper expectations. As one TS2 analyst notes, Ford will need “a few solid quarters of execution” to unlock any upside beyond the low-teens [51].
Long-term: Ford’s longer outlook is tied to its Ford+ turnaround and EV strategy. Management still targets roughly doubling EPS by 2026 (to ~$2.00) as the company “works through” current challenges [52]. If Ford can stabilize quality and get its EV roadmap on track (e.g. hitting sub-$30K EV pickup targets by 2027), bulls argue the stock could trade at a premium to peers. Such a scenario might push Ford above the mid-teens or higher in the coming years. However, bears point out Tesla’s dominance and the risk that Ford’s EV losses continue, keeping valuation in check. In practice, most models and forecasts keep Ford in the low-teens range out to 2026 [53] [54]. Still, Ford’s high dividend yield and stable truck franchises provide a floor that many investors find attractive.
Bottom Line: Ford’s stock has weathered a storm of news – from a costly factory fire and sweeping recalls to favorable tariff changes and an earnings beat. As of Oct. 23, shares sit near $12, with analysts largely neutral. The coming months will test whether Ford can turn around its EV business and leave the fire and recalls behind. For now, experts advise investors to watch Q4 guidance and market trends closely – Ford remains a “show-me” story in the auto sector [55] [56].
Sources: Current stock and earnings data from StockAnalysis and TipRanks [57] [58]. News from Reuters (Eckert, Eckert/Nigh, GM report), TS2.tech analysis [59] [60] [61] [62] [63], and major media (e.g. LA Times [64]) as cited above. Each point is backed by the referenced sources.
References
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