Bitcoin Plunges to ~$107K as Fed Dashes ‘Uptober’ Rally

Date: October 30, 2025.
BTC Price: ~$107,600 (USD) as of late Oct 30 (down ~2% on the day) ^[1]. Over the past week Bitcoin oscillated between about $114K and $107K, ending well below its Oct 6 all-time high (~$125K).
Events: On Oct 29 the U.S. Fed cut rates by 25 bp but signaled no guarantees of future cuts ^[2]. President Trump met with China’s Xi Jinping on Oct 30 to ease trade tensions ^[3]. Traders had already punished risk assets after Trump’s prior tariff threat, triggering Bitcoin’s mid-month crash.
Market Reaction: Renewed risk-off sentiment saw Bitcoin “slip below $108K” on Oct 30 ^[4] – about an 8% drop from Monday’s high. Stocks were mixed (Nasdaq ~–1%, S&P ~flat, Dow +0.2%) while the dollar firmed on Powell’s hawkish tone ^[5] ^[6].
Sentiment: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is now in Fear (≈34/100) ^[7], after plunging into “Extreme Fear” in mid-October. Earlier this month it rebounded from record lows (below 25) back toward neutral ^[8].
Expert Quotes: Amber Group’s Annabelle Huang says any dip below $100K is a “buy” opportunity ^[9]. Coinbase’s Volatility Chief recently forecast BTC hitting $150K by year-end. By contrast, an Elliott-wave analyst at Ledn warns “the bull run is over,” expecting a slide into the $70–80K range ^[10].
Trends: Institutional inflows have been strong. Early October saw record ETF inflows (~$5.95B in one week, including ~$3.5B into BTC ETFs) ^[11], helping fuel the Oct 5 spike to $126K. Oct 29 saw ~$470M outflows from U.S. spot BTC ETFs ^[12], but October remains net positive (over $4B in). Roughly 170 public companies now hold >1M BTC (~5% of supply) ^[13], underscoring deep institutional demand.

7-Day Price Summary

Over the past week (Oct 24–30), Bitcoin traded in a choppy $114K–$107K range. It started around $111–112K on Oct 24–25, then climbed to about $114–116K on Oct 26–27 amid easing U.S.–China trade rhetoric. The Fed cut rates on Oct 29, but Chair Powell’s caution on future cuts prompted a sell-off. BTC eased from ~$113K (Oct 29) to ~$107–108K by Oct 30 ^[14] ^[15].

Monday–Tuesday (Oct 26–27): After Trump hinted at reduced tariffs, BTC rallied above $114K ^[16]. Crypto stocks (Coinbase, MicroStrategy) and equity markets mostly pared earlier losses.
Wednesday (Oct 29): Fed cut 25 bp as expected, but Powell said further cuts were “far from” assured ^[17]. Bitcoin dipped only modestly (~3%), but this signaled waning “easy money” hopes. U.S. stocks ended slightly down and the dollar strengthened (Dollar Index +0.6%) ^[18] ^[19].
Thursday (Oct 30): Trump and Xi met (on fentanyl/rare earths, not directly crypto), yet markets already priced in a truce ^[20]. BTC slid as global risk sentiment weakened. By late Thursday, BTC traded ~$107.6K (down ~4% for the week) ^[21]. Ethereum hovered ~$3.9K (down ~2% on Thurs) and other majors similarly slipped.

For comparison, BTC’s 7-day performance (~–5%) trails the Nasdaq (roughly –3%) over the same period. Correlations remain high – Citi Research notes the recent sell-off “revealed bitcoin’s growing equity sensitivity” ^[22], meaning crypto is moving more in lockstep with stocks.

Bitcoin-Related News & Sentiment

Fed & Rates: On Oct 29 the Fed cut the federal funds rate to 3.75–4.00%, the second cut of 2025. But Powell emphasized inflation is still above target, curbing expectations of more cuts ^[23]. This reinforced a “dovish pause” narrative, with traders scaling back bets on aggressive easing ^[24]. A firmer dollar and higher U.S. yields followed, pressuring risk assets.
U.S.–China Trade: President Trump unexpectedly raised tariffs to 100% in early Oct, sparking crypto’s Oct 10 crash ^[25]. Since then, negotiations eased: on Oct 29 Treasury official Scott Bessent said the U.S. would pause adding Chinese firms to a blacklist, and China would resume soybean purchases ^[26]. Markets gave only a muted boost, since the Fed’s stance dominated sentiment.
ETF Flows: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their largest daily outflows in two weeks on Oct 29 (~$470M) ^[27]. Fidelity’s FBTC lost $164M; Ark Invest and BlackRock saw $143M and $88M out, respectively ^[28]. This followed two days of big inflows ($149M on Mon, $202M on Tue) ^[29]. Year-to-date ETF inflows still exceed $60B. Bitcoin ETFs now hold ~1.5M BTC ($170B) or ~7–8% of supply ^[30].
Regulation & Adoption: 2025 has been a pro-crypto year. In July the U.S. passed the “GENIUS Act” regulating stablecoins. The SEC approved spot BTC ETFs in Jan. Congress held hearings on crypto oversight. In late Oct, Bitwise launched U.S. spot ETFs for Solana (SOL), and Canary Capital filed for Litecoin and Hedera ETFs ^[31]. Globally, crypto-ETF inflows have hit records ^[32]. On-chain, firms like Coinbase report skyrocketing demand; Coinbase Q3 profit jumped to $433M from $75M YOY (Q3 2024) as trading volumes surged ^[33]. Coinbase’s CEO cited “crypto-friendly policies” and stablecoin activity (boosted by recent U.S. stablecoin law) as tailwinds ^[34].
Market Players: MicroStrategy (Ticker MSTR) – the largest corporate BTC holder – reported a Q3 net profit of $2.8B (vs. a $340M loss a year ago) thanks to a $3.9B unrealized crypto gain ^[35]. CEO Michael Saylor noted that MSTR is modeling 2025 earnings on Bitcoin reaching $150K by year-end ^[36]. Coinbase’s stock (COIN) rose 3% on Oct 30 after beating earnings estimates ^[37]. By contrast, smaller crypto miners and speculative alt tokens swung wildly after Oct 10; e.g. Dogecoin and Avalanche crashed ~60–70% in early October ^[38].
Hacks/Security: No major hacks or exchange outages were reported in the past week. Security monitoring remains heightened after a string of mid-2025 incidents, but no new incidents have significantly impacted markets.

Expert Commentary

Industry Voices: Amber Group veteran Annabelle Huang told DL News that the Oct 29 Fed cut was “sell-the-news” – helpful long-term but not stopping a short-term dip. She said “any dip below $100,000 is a buy”, reflecting confidence that institutional demand will re-ignite higher levels ^[39]. Similarly, analyst Greg Magadini (Amberdata) expects “liquidity easy => year-end rally” ^[40].
Analyst Forecasts: Opinions span from wildly bullish to cautious: Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick reiterated a ~$200K end-2025 target for BTC ^[41]. Citigroup projects ~$133K by late 2025 (and ~$181K by late 2026) ^[42]. Crypto influencer Robert Kiyosaki has tweeted a $200K goal. Even some mainstream forecasters see six-figure upside if ETF inflows and adoption continue. On the other hand, Elliott-wave analyst Jon Glover (Ledn) declared “the bull run is over”, predicting a multi-month correction into the $70–$80K range ^[43]. Citi notes that in a severe recession scenario Bitcoin could fall toward the mid-$80Ks ^[44]. (As always, futures markets imply a wide range of outcomes.)

Technical & On-Chain Analysis

Bitcoin is currently caught between key moving averages. CoinDesk reports that BTC is trading between its 200-day and 365-day SMAs – roughly $107.8K (200-day) and $100.4K (365-day) ^[45]. The 200-day SMA (~$107.8K) is now immediate resistance; a decisive break above $112–113K (short-term cost basis) would signal renewed momentum ^[46] ^[47]. Conversely, sustained closes below ~$100K would be bearish.

On-chain indicators are mixed: whales and institutions who bought at lower prices earlier in 2025 appear to be sitting tight, while many retail “late buyers” may be underwater. Glassnode shows that the median bitcoin investor cost basis (for coins acquired in 2025) is ~$103.5K ^[48], suggesting that losses have accumulated for new entrants above that level. However, data aggregators note that large-cap holders continue accumulating dips. Trading volumes have picked up on sell-offs (as seen Oct 10), a classic sign of volatile chop.

Volume & Liquidity: Trading volumes spiked around Fed announcements and trade news, but have since normalized. The $8–9B daily volume on major U.S. exchanges is moderate given the $2.1T market cap. Volatility is elevated compared to early October (when fear index was extreme), but below the one-day sell-off of Oct 10. The Bollinger Bands have widened, reflecting recent swings; BTC is closer to the lower band now, indicating a potential mean-reversion play.

Support/Resistance Levels: Technical traders are eyeing: support near $107K–108K (recent lows / 200-day SMA) and strong support at $100K (psychological anchor). Resistance sits at $112K–113K (recent local peaks and the 20–50 day EMAs) ^[49] ^[50]. Breaking convincingly above $113K could open $120K+ levels. Key Fibonacci retracements from the $126K peak also cluster around $114K (38% retrace) and $118K (50%).

Whale Activity: Large wallets have been active. On Oct 28, blockchain data showed a whale moving ~894 BTC ($102M) from Kraken to a known custody address ^[51], suggesting accumulation. Overall, Bitcoin’s on-chain supply held by long-term holders remains high, and the coin’s UTXO Age distribution shows many coins dormant for 6+ months – a sign that early buyers are holding. The lack of major selling from these whales during recent dips is often cited as a bullish sign.

Price Forecasts (Range of Views)

Analysts’ forecasts span a wide spectrum:

Bullish: Standard Chartered’s Kendrick ($200K end-2025) ^[52]; Citigroup (~$130K by late 2025, $180K by late 2026) ^[53]; MicroStrategy’s Saylor ($150K by Dec) ^[54]; crypto media ($200K targets). Even short-term gains are expected: some firms see a brief squeeze to $118–120K if Fed signals become more dovish.
Neutral/Cautious: Many strategists note that technicals and ETF fund flows suggest a gradual grind upward. For example, Ts2 notes some models see BTC moving toward $115–118K if it holds above $111K, but a drop below $111K opens $108K–104K support zones ^[55]. Citi and others caution that US Dollar strength and rate cuts might be more limited than priced.
Bearish: Leading Elliott Wave analyst Jon Glover warns BTC could re-test the $70–80K range for several months ^[56]. Crypto traders remember late-2021 when BTC fell ~40% before rebounding; similar patterns could unfold. In a pessimistic scenario (further Fed hawkish surprises or another geopolitical shock), a selloff below $100K is possible – some models cite key support as low as $83K (per Citi’s stress case) ^[57]. (These scenarios generally assume “sell-the-news” dynamics or liquidity crunch.)

In summary, forecasts cluster between ~$100K–150K for year-end, with outliers on either side. As always, actual price will be driven by the interplay of market psychology and macro conditions.

Macroeconomic Context & Other Indicators

Global financial conditions are moderating: inflation is cooling in most economies, but central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ) are in no hurry to ease further. The Fed’s latest dot plot suggests 1–2 cuts in 2026, so interest rates may remain relatively high into next year. Higher real yields tend to pressure Bitcoin (as seen in late Oct when U.S. yields ticked up). The USD Index (DXY) has strengthened ~0.6% this week ^[58], which typically coincides with crypto weakness.

In traditional markets, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs in mid-Oct (on trade hopes and liquidity expectations) but have started pulling back as Fed hawkishness weighs. Energy prices are steady and gold is flat (gold briefly dipped on the Fed news). Market volatility remains higher than summer lows (Bitcoin’s 30-day realized vol is ~40%, vs ~25% in September).

Outside finance, global events – like emerging market stress or further U.S.–China developments – could sway crypto. For example, any escalation in trade or tech export restrictions could renew Bitcoin’s appeal as a “digital safe-haven” (as it did when gold and Bitcoin rose in parallel earlier this year ^[59]). Conversely, a broad equity rally (driven by fiscal stimulus or China reopening) might draw money out of Bitcoin.

Finally, macro news this week included U.S. GDP and job data (slow growth, steady jobs), which on net reinforced the Fed’s cautious tone. Investors will watch upcoming U.S. inflation (PCE) and the Nov 5 payrolls for clues. Lower-than-expected readings could boost Bitcoin by easing Fed pressure; higher readings would likely cap further BTC gains.

Major BTC Price Indicators (Oct 30, 2025)

Indicator	Value
BTC Price (USD)	~$107,622 ^[60]
Market Cap	~$2.13 trillion
24h Volume	~$8.7 billion
BTC Dominance	~60% (of total crypto market cap)
BTC/ETH Price Ratio	~27:1 (BTC ~$107.6K / ETH ~$3.9K)
Fear & Greed Index	34 (“Fear”) ^[61]

Sources: CoinMarketCap/TradingView for price data ^[62]; alternative.me for the Fear & Greed index ^[63]; and market analysis as cited above.

Summary: Bitcoin’s “Uptober” rally has stalled into late October as the Federal Reserve expressed caution and global markets turned uneasy. Short-term momentum has waned (BTC is back to ~Feb 2024 levels after mid-Oct turmoil), but many fundamentals remain supportive: ETF demand, institutional adoption, and positive regulatory developments persist ^[64] ^[65]. Analysts and industry leaders are split between bullish year-end targets (~$150K–$200K) and calls for a consolidation near $100K. In the coming days, traders will watch if BTC can hold above $107K support or slip toward $100K, and whether any new macro or crypto-specific news (e.g. regulatory moves, exchange flows) tips the balance.

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References

Bitcoin Plunges to ~$107K as Fed Dashes ‘Uptober’ Rally – What’s Next for BTC?