TAIPEI — November 10, 2025
At a glance
- Record month: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) booked NT$367.47 billion in October revenue — a new all‑time monthly high — up 16.9% year over year and 11.0% month over month. Year‑to‑date (Jan–Oct) sales reached NT$3.13 trillion (+33.8% YoY). 1
- But growth slowed: October’s pace was the slowest YoY growth since February 2024 and a sharp comedown from ~40% YoY in September, stoking talk that the white‑hot AI cycle is easing from a boil to a simmer. 2
- Guidance intact: TSMC still sees Q4 revenue at US$32.2–33.4 billion; management has framed the quarter as seasonally softer but largely cushioned by AI demand. 3
- 2025 outlook: The company recently lifted its 2025 growth view to the “mid‑30%” range in U.S. dollar terms, underscoring a structurally strong AI build‑out despite monthly noise. 4
- Mix matters: In Q3, High‑Performance Computing (HPC) was 57% of revenue and smartphones 30%, with the latter showing renewed momentum — a “surprising” but timely offset as AI server orders normalize. 5
- Market reaction: Taipei stocks closed up 0.79% today as investors bought TSMC ahead of the sales print; the chipmaker was a notable driver of the rebound. 6
October by the numbers: a record high with cooler growth
TSMC reported NT$367.47 billion in consolidated revenue for October, a fresh record and an 11% sequential rise. On a yearly basis, sales grew 16.9%, slower than September’s ~40% YoY surge. For January–October, revenue totaled NT$3.13 trillion, up 33.8% from the same period last year. 1
While those figures confirm the foundry’s dominant position in advanced nodes, they also mark the slowest YoY growth since February 2024, a datapoint traders have latched onto as evidence that the AI server super‑cycle is shifting into a more sustainable phase rather than accelerating endlessly. 2
Why growth cooled — and why it may not be bearish
Two forces are working at once:
- AI demand is still strong, but less “vertical.” After a year of rush orders, hyperscalers appear to be digesting earlier purchases and spreading deliveries, which flattens the monthly growth curve without implying a demand cliff. TSMC’s own Q4 revenue guidance of US$32.2–33.4 billion suggests a solid quarter despite seasonal smartphone headwinds. 3
- The sales mix is broadening again. TSMC’s Q3 platform split shows HPC at 57% and smartphones at 30% of revenue — with smartphones reaccelerating into the iPhone cycle and Android refreshes. That “legacy” engine quietly supports utilization as AI orders normalize. 5
Some on the sell side are more conservative, with consensus for a mid‑teens percentage rise in current‑quarter sales, below management’s confidence tone — another reason October’s slower tick wasn’t a shock. 2
The “surprising” growth offset: smartphones
Investor conversation has centered on AI accelerators, but recent analysis notes smartphones are again a meaningful earnings contributor as premium handsets adopt leading‑edge 3nm silicon. That reawakening handset demand complements the AI/server pipeline and helps steady fab loading. 7
Capacity, customers, and the Nvidia factor
TSMC remains the go‑to foundry for Nvidia and Apple. Local reports cited by industry media say Nvidia’s Jensen Huang has asked TSMC for ~50% more 3nm capacity to support Blackwell‑generation parts — a reminder that, even with month‑to‑month oscillations, structural demand at the leading edge is still tight. 8
Outlook: sturdy fundamentals, normalized cadence
- Guidance: Management’s Q4 range (US$32.2–33.4B) points to continued strength in AI and advanced nodes, with seasonal smartphone forces damped by HPC/AI demand. 3
- Full‑year/next year: TSMC raised its 2025 revenue growth outlook to the mid‑30% range, signaling confidence that the AI build‑out has multiple innings left, even if the month‑to‑month tape looks choppy. 4
- Mix: The HPC 57% / Smartphone 30% mix from Q3 offers a template for 2026: AI stays the anchor; handset cycles provide ballast. 5
Market context and reaction
Ahead of the report, Taiwan’s benchmark index rose 0.79%, with TSMC attracting strong buying as traders positioned for another robust print. The near‑term debate is less about “is AI over?” and more about “how quickly does supply catch up, and which segments carry the baton during digestion phases?” 6
What to watch next
- Monthly cadence: TSMC’s November revenue update (Dec. 10, local time) will show whether October’s slowdown was a one‑month blip tied to shipment timing or the start of a flatter winter pattern. 9
- Node ramps: Watch 3nm/advanced packaging capacity as a swing factor for 2026 orders from leading AI and smartphone customers. 5
- Macro tailwinds: Taiwan’s export boom remains a supportive backdrop for chipmakers even as individual months wobble. 10
Bottom line
TSMC just posted its biggest month ever. The headline growth rate slowed — and that’s exactly what a maturing super‑cycle looks like: less parabolic, more durable. With Q4 guidance intact, a 2025 growth outlook in the mid‑30%, and smartphones rejoining AI as co‑drivers, the world’s most important foundry is signaling momentum, not mania. 1
Sources: TSMC press release and investor materials; Focus Taiwan (CNA); Mobile World Live; The Business Times (Singapore); Reuters; Nasdaq (Motley Fool reprint). 1
