Global stock markets tumbled on Friday, November 14, 2025, as a wave of “higher for longer” interest-rate fears and mounting anxiety over lofty AI and tech valuations triggered another broad risk-off move from Asia to Wall Street. [1]
Markets had spent much of the week betting the Federal Reserve would deliver another rate cut at its December meeting. By Friday, those hopes had been slashed to little more than a coin toss, leaving stocks sharply lower, bond yields grinding around the 4% mark and safe-haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc in demand. [2]
Key takeaways
- Global equities slide: Major stock benchmarks in Asia and Europe fell, while U.S. futures stayed fragile after the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq just logged their worst session in around a month. [3]
- Fed cut bets repriced: Markets now put the odds of a December Fed rate cut at just about 50%, down from more than 60% earlier in the week. [4]
- AI and tech stocks under pressure: High-flying AI names and mega-cap tech shares led the sell-off, stoking talk of an “AI bubble” and wiping out weeks of gains. [5]
- Oil up, gold choppy: Crude rose on renewed geopolitical supply fears, while gold swung between gains and losses but remained in striking distance of record highs in dollar terms. [6]
Fed doubts flip the script on December rate-cut hopes
The catalyst for the latest lurch lower has been a clear shift in tone from Federal Reserve officials.
Several policymakers warned that with inflation still above target and the labour market holding up reasonably well after two cuts earlier this year, there may be limited room for more easing without risking a renewed inflation flare-up. [7]
Among the most closely watched comments:
- St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said there is only “limited room” to cut further without becoming overly accommodative. [8]
- Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack argued rates should remain restrictive to keep downward pressure on prices. [9]
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari revealed he opposed the most recent rate cut and is undecided about December. [10]
Money-market pricing and the CME FedWatch tool now imply roughly even odds of a quarter‑point cut at the Fed’s next meeting, down from about a two‑thirds chance just a day earlier. [11]
Complicating the picture is the aftermath of the U.S. government shutdown. While Washington has reopened, a backlog of delayed economic releases means traders are flying partly blind. The White House has even cautioned that October’s unemployment data may never be fully published, reinforcing the Fed’s incentive to move cautiously until a clear data picture emerges. [12]
Tech and AI darlings take the biggest hit
Thursday’s Wall Street session set the tone: it was a textbook risk‑off day, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping about 2.3% and the Dow and S&P 500 falling around 1.5–1.7%, their steepest daily losses in roughly a month. [13]
The damage was concentrated in the market’s most crowded winners:
- AI‑linked software names such as Palantir and Oracle have slumped roughly 15% over the past two weeks. [14]
- Chip giant Nvidia has slid nearly 8% over the same period after an extended run‑up this year. [15]
Strategists say investors are increasingly questioning whether AI and tech valuations can be justified if rates stay higher for longer and growth slows. Several research notes and FX/indices commentaries on Friday explicitly flagged “concerns about AI stock valuations” as a key driver of the sell‑off. [16]
In overnight trading, S&P 500 e‑mini futures briefly ticked higher in Asia as dip buyers emerged, but the bounce was marginal and fragile compared with the broader move down in global equities. [17]
Asia and Europe catch Wall Street’s cold
The overnight slump in U.S. tech shares rippled quickly across Asian markets. By Friday’s close in the region: [18]
- MSCI Asia-Pacific ex‑Japan fell by a little more than 1%.
- Japan’s Nikkei lost around 1.5%.
- South Korea’s Kospi dropped close to 3%.
- Australian equities slid about 1.4%.
- China’s CSI300 index eased close to 1%, pressured by fresh signs of slowing growth.
China’s industrial output grew just 4.9% year‑on‑year in October, while retail sales rose 2.9% – both the weakest readings since mid‑2024 and below economists’ expectations. That underlined persistent softness in Chinese domestic demand, a major worry for exporters across Asia and Europe. [19]
Europe opened lower as well, with investors digesting both the Fed repricing and China’s slowdown: [20]
- Germany’s DAX was down around 0.4%.
- France’s CAC 40 slipped about 0.5%.
- The UK’s FTSE 100 underperformed, falling more than 1%.
Despite Friday’s pullback, major European indices are still on track to end the week higher overall, helped by earlier relief that the U.S. shutdown had ended. But sentiment has clearly soured as traders mark down the chances of additional Fed support this year. [21]
UK and Canadian markets face extra local pressures
United Kingdom: budget jitters rock sterling and gilts
The UK was one of the day’s weaker spots. The pound briefly dropped about 0.3% after reports that Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves had abandoned plans to raise income tax rates in their upcoming budget – a move that could complicate the government’s efforts to stick to fiscal rules. [22]
UK government bond yields jumped on the headlines before partially retracing, with 10‑year gilt yields still up on the day and traders warning of more volatility as budget speculation intensifies. [23]
Canada: TSX stumbles after record highs
In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite index fell about 1.9% on Thursday, its sharpest daily decline in months and a rapid reversal from recent record highs. Futures for the index were modestly lower again on Friday as investors digested the global risk‑off mood and the same reassessment of Fed policy path that hit U.S. markets. [24]
Rising oil prices offered some offset, but not enough to fully cushion Canadian equities from the broader tech‑led downdraft. [25]
Bonds, currencies and commodities flash risk-off signals
Yields hover near 4% as Fed path re‑priced
In U.S. fixed income, two‑year Treasury yields traded around 3.6% and 10‑year yields just above 4.1%, reflecting a tug‑of‑war between safe‑haven demand and reduced expectations for aggressive easing. [26]
Interestingly, the U.S. dollar index slipped toward the low‑99s, even as yields nudged higher. Instead, classic refuges like the yen and Swiss franc outperformed, with the yen strengthening from recent nine‑month lows near ¥155 to the mid‑¥154 range and the franc extending a multi‑day run of gains. [27]
Oil climbs on renewed supply worries
Crude oil prices rose roughly 1–2%, supported by fresh geopolitical tension: reports of a Ukrainian drone attack damaging a Russian oil depot and a temporary suspension of exports from Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk stoked supply concerns. [28]
Benchmark Brent crude traded around the mid‑$60s per barrel, while energy indices such as the S&P GSCI Energy were up around 1% on the day. [29]
Gold swings but stays elevated
Gold’s price action was choppy, reflecting the push‑pull between lower Fed‑cut odds (a headwind for non‑yielding assets) and rising risk aversion (a support for safe havens). Spot prices moved in the low $4,100s to low $4,200s per ounce on Friday, remaining not far below recent record highs above $4,300. [30]
What investors are watching next
With markets jolted out of their recent complacency, traders and portfolio managers are now laser‑focused on a few key themes:
- Rescheduled U.S. data: The timing and content of delayed reports – especially labour‑market and inflation indicators – will heavily shape expectations for the December Fed decision. [31]
- Further Fed communication: Any additional speeches or interviews from Fed officials will be scrutinised for hints on whether the central bank is leaning toward holding rates or delivering one more cut this year. [32]
- Durability of the AI trade: After this week’s shake‑out, investors will be watching whether buyers return to mega‑cap tech and AI stocks, or whether talk of an “AI bubble” leads to a longer‑lasting de‑rating of the sector. [33]
- Energy and geopolitics: Renewed disruption risks in Russian oil exports and ongoing tensions in other energy‑producing regions could inject fresh volatility into oil and, by extension, inflation expectations. [34]
For now, November 14, 2025, will go down as the day rate‑cut optimism met a wall of central‑bank realism – and when high‑flying AI and tech stocks reminded investors that even the strongest narratives can stumble when the cost of money looks set to stay higher for longer.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.zawya.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.zawya.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.zawya.com, 9. www.zawya.com, 10. www.zawya.com, 11. www.zawya.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. ca.investing.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.zawya.com, 18. www.zawya.com, 19. www.zawya.com, 20. ca.investing.com, 21. ca.investing.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.marketscreener.com, 25. www.marketscreener.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.zawya.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.marketscreener.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.zawya.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.marketscreener.com
